Double top at 0.6930 broken, lower low at 0.6843, price back at weekly open.
Monday's squeeze from the 0.6854 swing low near the weekly open to the 0.6930 week high has been fully unwound. Equal highs on Monday evening and again at Tuesday's London open formed a double top, and the hotter US CPI print broke the 0.6905 base (the cpi break level) during NY hours, driving price to a 0.6843 CPI low. The rebound to 0.6867 sits below the ema20 (0.6882) and EMA(50) (0.6897), with EMA(20) now crossed under EMA(50) and RSI(14) recovering only to 38 from 25.9, while ATR(14) eases to 10.7 pips from 12.7 as the bounce loses pace.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6843, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68817, 0.6905, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6882, inside the 38.2–50% retracement of the week high to CPI low drop, would mark a deeper recovery
Failure to hold the 0.6854 swing low exposes the 0.6843 CPI low and 0.6833 key support; a break of 0.6833 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6905 cpi break level would neutralise the double top read
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT is the next AUD-side risk
Monday's squeeze off the weekly open capped twice near 0.6930, at the Monday high and again at Tuesday's London open. The hotter US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session broke that double top and drove a fresh 0.6843 cpi low beneath the 0.6854 friday low. Price is now consolidating around the 0.6866 weekly open, below EMA(20) at 0.6883 and EMA(50) at 0.6898, both turning lower. RSI(14) has recovered to 36.7 from a 25.9 trough, and the bounce has retraced less than 38.2% of the cpi drop fib so far.
Support: 0.6854, 0.6843, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6866, 0.6883, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 0.6883 would clear the cpi drop fib 38.2% (~0.6876) and challenge the post-CPI downtrend read
Repeated failure at the 0.6866 weekly open keeps the consolidation below the falling EMAs
Loss of the 0.6843 cpi low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp December hike talk could extend USD strength
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 GMT could spark short-covering back toward the Monday high
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; CPI drop broke the 0.6930 double top.
Hot US October CPI hit in the NY session today. Price cut through the 0.6913 trough beneath the Monday–Tuesday 0.6930 double top and fell to a week low at 0.6843, under Friday's 0.6854 low, while EMA(20) crossed below EMA(50). The rebound has stalled at the weekly open near 0.6866, with RSI(14) back to 36.9 from 25.9 and ATR easing to 11.4 pips; price holds beneath a falling EMA(20) at 0.6885. The lower-high trendline from Thursday's 0.7024 peak through Monday's 0.6930 high frames the sequence.
Support: 0.68539, 0.68434
Resistance: 0.68664, 0.68852, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(20) at 0.6885 and the 50% fib of the CPI leg near 0.6887 would weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the Friday low at 0.6854 and then the 0.6843 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could revive 50bp December pricing and shift this read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 GMT: a firmer print risks a short squeeze back toward the 0.6930 double top
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 37 · price 0.68642
Lower highs since Thursday; fresh lower low after CPI.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's London peak near 0.7024. Monday's rebound stalled at the 0.6931 Monday high, and the hot US CPI print broke Tuesday's 0.6910–0.6930 range, pushing price through the Friday low to a CPI low of 0.6843 during NY hours. RSI(14) bottomed near 26 and has recovered to 37, ATR has expanded to 11.8 pips, and price is pressing the weekly open at 0.6866 from below, under a falling EMA(20) at 0.6887 that sits on the 50% retracement of the Monday-high-to-CPI-low leg.
Support: 0.68539, 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68664, 0.68873, 0.69305
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could extend or unwind the CPI move
H1 close back above the ema20 / 50% fib near 0.6887 would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the weekly open (0.6866) keeps the post-CPI downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the cpi low at 0.6843 opens the 9-month low at 0.6833
Thu 00:00 UTC Australia inflation expectations and 13:30 UTC US jobless claims are the next data risks
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg extending · RSI 33 · price 0.68602
Lower highs intact; fresh low below last week's low.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% MoM) erased Monday's rebound. Price fell from the 0.6930 week high through the 0.6854-55 prior low to a 0.6843 week low during NY hours, extending the lower-high sequence from last week. Price sits below both EMA(20) at 0.6890 and EMA(50) at 0.6902, and both have rolled over. ATR expanded to ~12 pips and RSI(14) has recovered to 33 after dipping to 26.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.68545, 0.68895, 0.69305
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the 0.6855 prior low would turn the CPI breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6843 week low exposes the 0.6833 9-month low
A bounce toward the ema20 near 0.6890 tests whether the CPI drop fib retracement caps the move
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could extend or unwind the post-CPI move
Hourly close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.6930 week high invalidates the downtrend read
Lower low below Friday's 0.6854 and Monday's lows; impulsive CPI leg, price below both EMAs.
Monday's oil-driven rally to 0.6930 has fully unwound. Tuesday's sell-off began with Waller's 50bp talk in London and accelerated on the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%), which broke the 0.6913–0.6930 range and the 0.6854 prior lows, reaching a 0.6843 session low in NY hours. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.6893 and EMA(50) at 0.6904, with EMA(20) now crossed under EMA(50); RSI(14) at 29.8 is oversold and ATR has expanded from ~8.5 to 12.3 pips, with no bullish divergence on the latest low.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6854, 0.68664, 0.68927
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6854 prior lows would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6843 session low exposes key support at 0.6833
Recovery through the 0.6866 weekly open targets the 38.2–50% zone of Tuesday's sell-off fib (0.6876–0.6887), just below ema20
Bowman at 20:30 UTC and Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC: 25bp vs 50bp December framing could materially shift this read
RSI making a higher low on a fresh price low would mark bullish divergence from oversold
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) during NY hours erased Monday's oil-driven rebound. Supply capped price twice at the 0.6930 double top, and the decline from 0.6930 then cut through Friday's low at 0.6854 to a fresh session low at 0.6843. Price sits below both EMAs, with EMA(20) at 0.6897 curling under EMA(50) at 0.6906 and ATR(14) expanding to 12.7 pips, while RSI(14) at 25.9 is oversold after sliding from the low 60s earlier in the London session.
Support: 0.68434, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68539, 0.68967, 0.69305
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.6854 friday low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6843 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.6897 would neutralise the post-CPI lower highs
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC: a nod to a 50bp December hike could extend the USD bid; a 25bp framing could prompt an oversold rebound
Double top at 0.6930 broken on CPI; fresh week low below Friday's low.
Monday's oil-driven USD slide carried AUDUSD from the 0.6855 week open to 0.6930, but a second test at Tuesday's London open failed and left a double top. The hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast) broke that structure in the NY session. Price fell below both EMAs and through the friday low at 0.6854 to a new week low at 0.6850, as EMA(20) crossed under EMA(50) and ATR expanded to 12.5 pips. RSI(14) at 27.9 is oversold, and the post-CPI bounce stalled at 0.6883, near the 38.2% retracement of the drop from the week high.
Support: 0.68539, 0.68505
Resistance: 0.68828, 0.69018, 0.69305
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6883 cpi bounce high would put the drop retrace and the ema20 at 0.6902 back in play
Sustained trade below the 0.6850 week low extends the lower-low sequence beyond this week's range
A new price low with RSI(14) holding above 27.9 would flag bullish rsi divergence
Lower highs line from Tuesday's 0.6930 test defines the sell-off; a break above it softens the read
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on 25 vs 50bp could extend or unwind the CPI move
Lower highs from Thursday; Monday rally capped by double top near 0.6930, now unwound.
The hot US CPI print (headline 0.4%, core 0.3% m/m, both above forecast) took roughly 37 pips off AUDUSD in the first hour of NY. That broke Tuesday's 0.6908 base and gave back almost all of Monday's rally from 0.6854 to the 0.6930 double top. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.6907 and EMA(50) at 0.6910, with the 20 crossing back under the 50, RSI(14) at 34.2 after a brief dip to 28.5, and ATR expanding to 11.1 pips. The weekly open at 0.6866 is now being tested from below, with Friday's prior low at 0.6862 and the 0.6854 week low just beneath, while the lower highs line from Thursday's 0.7024 peak keeps the broader sequence intact.
Support: 0.6862, 0.6854, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.6866, 0.6907, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6854 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6833 7-mth low cited in the macro read
Recovery back above the 0.6866 weekly open and the ema20 near 0.6907 would neutralise the CPI breakdown; the 0.6930 double top caps above
Fed's Bowman (20:30 and 23:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on the 25 vs 50bp December question could extend or fade the post-CPI move
RSI(14) holding above its 28.5 CPI-bar low on any retest of 0.6854 would mark a bullish divergence against the lower-highs read
Double top at 0.6930 broken; lower high below 0.7024.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3% f/c, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) knocked AUD/USD about 35 pips in the 13:00 GMT bar. That broke Monday's rising line and Tuesday's 0.6913 low, completing a double top at the 0.6930 week high after Waller's hike talk had already capped the London open. Price now sits below both EMAs, with EMA(20) just crossing under EMA(50), RSI(14) oversold at 28.5 and ATR expanding to 10.8 pips, and more than 61.8% of Monday's rally has been retraced, leaving price just above the 0.6866 weekly open and the 0.6854 double low from Friday and Monday's Asia session.
Support: 0.6866, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6900, 0.6910, 0.6930
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6854 double low breaks this week's floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6866 weekly open erases all of this week's gains
Recovery above the 0.6900 psych level and the ema20 near 0.6910 would neutralise the double top break
Pending CPI YoY and core YoY prints could extend or unwind the post-CPI move
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 GMT could shift the read if she echoes Waller's 50bp talk
Monday's rally ran from the 0.68545 week low to a 0.69305 weekly high into late NY. A softer USD on falling oil and US-Iran deal hopes drove the move. London on Tuesday stalled at 0.69298 under that high, forming a double top, and broke the 0.6913 Asian-range low and neckline as Waller's hawkish warning landed. Price now sits below the flattening ema20 (0.69138) and ema50 (0.69131), just above the 38.2% fib of Monday's leg near 0.6902. RSI(14) has slid from 68 to 44 and ATR(14) has compressed to 8.7 pips from about 10 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68793, 0.68545
Resistance: 0.69138, 0.69305
What it said to watch
US Oct CPI at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR compression leaves room for expansion
An H1 close below the 0.6900 round number puts the Monday swing low at 0.68793, near the 61.8% fib, in play
An H1 close back above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.6914 negates the double top neckline break
Failure to hold 0.68793 exposes the 0.68545 week low and unwinds Monday's rally
A clear close above the 0.69305 weekly high invalidates the double top
12:02 UTC
Rebound stalling, price back below EMAs · RSI 48 · price 0.69104
Double bottom off 0.6854, capped at 0.6930 for two sessions.
Friday's NY low at 0.6854 and Monday's Asia-open retest formed a double bottom. The rebound ran through the 0.6893 neckline into the Monday high at 0.6930, helped by a broad USD pullback as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes. Tuesday's London-open rally stalled just under that Monday high, and the rejection drove price to a 0.6908 session low. That drop puts price back below the ema50 at 0.69134 and a flattening ema20 at 0.69148. RSI(14) has eased from 68 on Monday to 48, and ATR has compressed to 8.8 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.69079, 0.6900, 0.68793
Resistance: 0.69134, 0.69148, 0.69305
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%), with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6900 psych level and the 0.6908 session low takes out the 38.2% rebound fib and exposes the 0.6879 pullback low
A break of the 0.6879 pullback low and the 0.6893 neckline undermines the double bottom read
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 0.6930 Monday high breaks the two-session cap
11:02 UTC
Rebound stalling, range below week high · RSI 48 · price 0.69116
Range 0.6908–0.6931 after Monday rally; price slipping under both EMAs.
Thursday's NY-hours selloff took AUDUSD from the 0.7000 psych level to Friday's post-NFP lows. The week opened at 0.6870 and printed its low at 0.6855 in Asia. Monday's rebound, on a broad USD pullback as oil slid on US-Iran deal hopes, ran to a week high of 0.6931, and supply has since capped five attempts at that level. The first hours of London today dropped price to a 0.6908 London low, below EMA(20) at 0.6916 and EMA(50) at 0.6914, with RSI(14) easing to 48 from the low 60s and ATR(14) compressed near 12 pips into CPI.
Support: 0.69083, 0.6900, 0.68796
Resistance: 0.69157, 0.69308, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.6900 round number breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.6880 pullback low
Recovery and hold above EMA(20) at 0.6916 keeps the 0.6908–0.6931 range intact
H1 close above the 0.6931 week high ends the rejection read and opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Tight 0.6910–0.6930 range after Monday's recovery from week low.
Monday's rebound from the 0.6855 week low, carried by a broad USD pullback as oil slid, stalled at the 0.6930 range top and has compressed into a 20-pip range through Tuesday's Asia session. A rejection from 0.6930 into the London open has pushed price back under ema20 (0.6916) and ema50 (0.6914), with RSI(14) easing to 49 from Monday's 68.6 peak and ATR compressing to 12 pips ahead of US CPI. The range low at 0.6910 sits on the 23.6% retracement of the 0.6850–0.6931 rebound, with the 0.6900 pivot and 38.2% level just below.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6900, 0.6855
Resistance: 0.69162, 0.6930, 0.6950
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6910 range low exposes the 0.6900 pivot and 38.2% retracement
Failure to hold the 0.6900 pivot puts the 0.6855 week low back in view
H1 close back above ema20 and the 0.6930 range top reopens Thursday's 0.6950 breakdown area
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Monday's oil- and risk-led rally carried AUDUSD from the 0.6855 open into NY at 0.6930. That level is the 38.2-50% zone of the Thu–Fri selloff from the Wed-Thu prior range near 0.7000, and it has capped every push since, with the London open bar showing another rejection back toward the ema20. Since then the pair has held a 20-pip range low/range top band of 0.6910-0.6930 through Asia. ATR has compressed from 13.7 to 11.6 pips and RSI(14) has eased from 68.6 to the low 60s, with price still above both EMAs into US CPI.
Support: 0.69165, 0.6910, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.69373, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (f/c 0.3% m/m, core 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC is a nearer risk
H1 close above the 0.6930 range top opens the 50% fib near 0.6937, then the 0.7000 prior range
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.6910 range low exposes the 0.6900 pivot and Monday's higher-low structure
08:02 UTC
Rebound off week low, stalling under 0.6930 · RSI 56 · price 0.69203
Rebound from 0.6850 low into tight 0.6910–0.6930 range.
AUDUSD broke below its 0.7000–0.7024 prior range into Thursday's NY open and slid to a 0.6850 week low after Friday's strong NFP. Monday's oil- and Iran-led USD selloff then drove a rebound that retraced nearly half the drop. Since NY hours yesterday, price has stalled in a tight 0.6910–0.6930 band, with the range top capping repeated tests. Price holds above EMA(20) at 0.6915 and EMA(50) at 0.6914, RSI(14) has eased to 56 from a 68.6 peak, and ATR(14) has compressed to 11.5 pips into CPI.
Support: 0.69153, 0.6900, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; 0.6900 psych is the pivot flagged in the digest
H1 close above the 0.6930 range top opens the path toward the 0.7000 prior range floor
Failure to hold ema20 and 0.6900 psych exposes the 50% retrace of Monday's rebound near 0.6893, then the 0.6850 week low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the pre-CPI compression early
07:02 UTC
Rebound from Friday low, stalling under 0.6930 · RSI 56 · price 0.69207
Higher lows since weekly open; tight 0.6910-0.6930 range below Monday high.
AUDUSD rallied from the 0.6855 weekly open low through Monday's Asia, London and NY sessions. Softer USD and the oil slide on US-Iran de-escalation hopes reversed part of Thursday's breakdown and the post-NFP slide to 0.6850. The rebound has since stalled at the 0.6931 Monday high, which capped five H1 attempts. Price is now pressing a 0.6910-0.6930 range, with the asian low at 0.6910 holding. It sits just above a now-rising ema20 (0.69148) that has crossed above the EMA50. RSI(14) has cooled from 68.6 to 56.2 and ATR has compressed from 13.6 to 11.5 pips, consistent with consolidation near the 38.2-50% fib of the Thursday-Friday drop. Price has also slipped marginally under the Monday trendline of higher lows.
Support: 0.69148, 0.6910, 0.6870
Resistance: 0.69308, 0.6950, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~6.5h) is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read; Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC is an earlier pre-CPI risk
H1 close above the 0.6931 monday high clears the 50% fib near 0.6937 and opens the 0.6950 breakdown area, then the 0.7000 round number
H1 close below the 0.6910 asian low and the ema20 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6870 weekly open
Sustained trade under the Monday trendline would mark a loss of rebound momentum
Monday rebound from the NFP low now compressing in a tight 0.6910-0.6931 range below the Monday high.
The RBA's split-vote hike broke Thursday's 0.7000-0.7020 range lower, and Friday's 165K NFP beat extended the drop to the 0.6850 NFP low. Monday's oil-driven USD pullback then lifted the pair about 76 pips through Asia, London and NY. Since late NY, price has compressed under the 0.6931 Monday high and held the 0.6910 Asian low, just above a rising EMA(20) that has now crossed the EMA(50). RSI(14) has eased to 61.4 from a 68.6 peak and ATR has contracted to 11.5 pips, with the bounce stalling roughly 43% into the drop, just shy of the 50% fib at 0.6937.
Support: 0.69143, 0.6910, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.69308, 0.69373, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.5h) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6931 Monday high and the 0.6937 50% fib opens the path toward the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6910 Asian low and EMA(20) breaks the rising trendline from Monday's open and exposes the 0.6850 NFP low
Further ATR compression inside the 0.6910-0.6931 range ahead of CPI points to a range break on the release
Higher lows since Monday's open, capped at 0.6931 below the 50% retrace.
The Thursday NY sell-off from 0.7024 extended to the 0.6850 NFP low after Friday's 165K payrolls beat. Broad USD weakness on oil and US-Iran headlines then drove a Monday recovery in Asia and NY hours, with higher lows off the 0.6880 pullback low. Price has spent the Asia session holding a 0.6910–0.6930 band above EMA(20) despite the soft China trade and NAB data. The Monday high at 0.6931 is capping, just under the 50% retracement of the NFP sell-off fib, with RSI(14) easing from the low 60s.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6958, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close above the 0.6931 Monday high and the 0.6937 50% retrace opens the 61.8% fib at 0.6958, then the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6910 Asian low and rising support exposes the 0.6880 pullback low, with the 0.6850 NFP low beneath
Waller at 09:00 UTC may move December Fed hike pricing ahead of CPI
Higher lows off 0.6850; Asian consolidation under Monday's high.
AUDUSD has retraced part of last week's 0.7025–0.6850 slide. Monday's London-to-NY rally came on a softer USD and lower oil after US-Iran deal hopes, and it cleared the 0.6893 post-NFP high to complete a double bottom off the 0.6850 nfp low. The bounce stalled at the 0.6931 monday high inside the 38.2–50% band of the decline fib (0.6917–0.6937). The Asia session has since compressed into a 0.6910–0.6924 consolidation, with the asia low just under converging EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.6912 and price leaning on the rising trendline. RSI(14) has eased from roughly 70 at Monday's high to about 57.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6890, 0.6850
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6950, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC is the earlier risk
H1 close below the 0.6910 asia low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6890 pullback low
Failure to hold the 0.6890 pullback low puts the 0.6850 nfp low back in play and voids the double bottom
H1 close above the 0.6931 monday high and the 50% decline fib opens the 0.6950 break level, then the 0.7000 round number
Higher lows since the week open, capped under the 50% fib.
The 0.7020 shelf gave way in Thursday's NY session, and the strong NFP on Friday extended the slide to 0.6850. Monday's rebound from the 0.6855 Monday low came as USD softened on Iran-deal headlines and the oil slump. The rebound printed higher lows along the rising trendline and was capped at the 0.6931 week high, just shy of the 50% fib at 0.6937. Price is now compressing above the 0.6910 Asian low and the EMA(20) during the Asia session, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6855
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6937, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC is an earlier catalyst
H1 close above the 50% fib at 0.6937 clears the week high and opens the path toward the 0.7000 psych level
Break of the 0.6910 Asian low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6880 swing low, then the 0.6855 Monday low
Repeated rejection at 0.6930 with RSI rolling below 50 would mark the rebound as a lower high within the downtrend
02:04 UTC
Rebounding off last week's low, higher lows since Monday · RSI 63 · price 0.69204
Double low at 0.6854, neckline broken, stalling at 38.2% fib.
Thursday's NY-hours breakdown from 0.7020 and Friday's NFP whipsaw left a double low at 0.6854 with the Sunday open. During Monday's London and NY sessions the pair broke the 0.6893 neckline as the oil-led USD dip lifted AUD. Since then the London low at 0.6879 and the Asia low at 0.6913 have printed higher lows, price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) converging near 0.6910, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 63, with the Monday high at 0.6931 sitting just under the 50% fib of last week's decline at 0.6939.
Support: 0.69133, 0.68793, 0.68539
Resistance: 0.69305, 0.6939, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11.5h) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC is an earlier test
H1 close below the 0.6913 asia low and the higher lows trendline would break the Monday sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6879 london low reopens the 0.6854 double low
H1 close above the 0.6931 monday high and the 0.6939 50% fib exposes the 0.7000 round number
Higher lows since Monday's open inside a lower-high sequence from 0.7024.
AUDUSD broke out of the 0.7000–0.7024 range in Thursday's NY session. The Thursday-Friday selloff printed the week low at 0.6854 on the NFP spike, and Monday's open retested it to form a double bottom. Broad USD softness on Iran de-escalation and falling oil carried the rebound to the 0.6930 Monday high in NY hours, where it stalled below the fib 50% at 0.6939; price now sits just above the ema20 near 0.6911, pressing the rising trendline from Monday's open with RSI(14) eased to the high 50s.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6890, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.69305, 0.6939, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC is an earlier risk
H1 close below the 0.6890 higher low breaks the rising trendline structure and puts the week low at 0.6854 back in focus
H1 close above the fib 50% at 0.6939 opens the path toward the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6911 on a closing basis would mark the first lower low since Monday's open
00:03 UTC
Rebound off week low, stalling under 50% retrace · RSI 64 · price 0.69199
Double low at 0.6854, higher lows since Monday's open.
Thursday's NY-session break of the 0.7000–0.7024 range ran into the Friday NFP-bar double low at 0.6854. Monday's Asia open retested that low before a steady recovery, as the broad USD pullback on falling oil and yields unwound safe-haven demand. Price has reclaimed the 0.6893 neckline and EMA(20) near 0.6909, with Monday's higher lows tracing a rising trendline around 0.6916 and RSI(14) cooling to ~64 after the late-NY push stalled at the 0.6931 Monday high, just short of the 50% fib (0.6939) of the Thursday–Friday decline.
Support: 0.6909, 0.6893, 0.6854
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6939, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6939 50% fib opens the path toward the 0.7000 round number and the prior range
Loss of the Monday higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 0.6909, then a close back below the 0.6893 neckline, would undercut the double low read
Failure to hold the 0.6854 double low resumes the lower-low sequence
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%, Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand) could materially shift this read