22:03 UTC
Downtrend, volatility expanding · RSI 37 · price 0.6865
Lower highs and lower lows since the September peak, descending channel.
AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the 9 September peak at 0.7237. Lower highs formed at 0.7140 and 0.7068, and the hot US CPI print plus the dovish-read RBA split vote pushed the September-November decline to a new low at 0.6843 this session. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6971 and the ema50 at 0.7008. Monday's bounce high at 0.6931 on US-Iran headlines faded within a day, and ATR has expanded from 41 to 54 pips over the past two weeks, so daily ranges are widening into the channel base.
Support: 0.6843, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.7008, 0.7068
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.6800 round number extends the lower-low chain along the channel base; RSI at 36.9 is not yet oversold
- Recovery above the 0.6931 bounce high, then a daily close above the ema50 at 0.7008, would challenge the downtrend read
- A break of the 0.7068 lower high ends the lower-highs sequence from September
- Fed's Bowman/Paulson today and AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thursday could shift Fed-RBA divergence pricing
- RBA Bullock speech and Meeting Minutes on 17 Nov will confirm or deny the December-pause read