18:47 UTC
Range-bound since May high, pullback testing EMA50 · RSI 49 · price 0.69569
0.6835–0.7277 range after Jan breakout; Sep lower high.
Range-bound between roughly 0.6835 and 0.7277 since the May 2026 high, after the January breakout above the 2025 0.64–0.67 base. The 0.7237 lower high in September sits just under the 0.7277 2026 high and forms a potential double top, and a four-week rejection from that high has brought price back to the W1 EMA50 near 0.6945, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Nov–May advance. A firm USD on a hawkish Fed keeps the 0.7000 psych level capping, and a weekly close below the 0.6903 swing low would expose the range floor at 0.6835–0.6865, which is the double-top neckline and sits near the 50% retracement.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.6865 range floor confirms the double top and breaks the macro range
- Sustained loss of the W1 EMA50 at 0.6945 turns the macro filter negative after holding since the January breakout
- Weekly close back above 0.7000 psych reopens the upper half of the range toward the 0.7237 lower high and 2026 high
- US CPI (Wed) and RBA Minutes (Tue) could materially shift this read; crowded AUD shorts add squeeze risk through 0.7000