Monday's gap-down weekly open at 0.6966 was bought through the Asia session to a 0.6995 week high. The push was rejected short of the 0.7000 round number, and a run of lower highs carried price to a 0.6955 monday low into the NY open as haven USD demand and hawkish Fed talk lifted DXY to 17-month highs. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), compressed in a 5-pip band above that low, with RSI(14) near 31; the 0.6942 swing low and 0.6932 prior low from last week's dips are the next shelves below.
Support: 0.69546, 0.69424, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read; record AUD short positioning leaves room for a sharp squeeze
H1 close back above the 0.6966 weekly open breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 50% fib near 0.6975
Failure to hold the 0.6955 monday low exposes the 0.6942 swing low and last week's 0.6932 prior low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 round number still cap the upside
Lower highs since Monday's Asia high, stalling at 61.8% retrace.
AUDUSD briefly cleared Friday's high to a 0.6995 weekly high in Monday's Asia session. It then reversed as haven USD demand on Middle East and energy escalation pushed DXY to YTD highs, carving lower highs through London and NY. Price now sits below EMA(20) and the 0.6966 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 30, and has gone flat at the 0.6955 Monday low, which aligns with the 61.8% retrace of the Thursday-to-Monday rally inside the broader 0.6932–0.6995 range.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6986, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6955 monday low and 61.8% retrace exposes the 0.6932 prior wk low
Close back above the 0.6966 weekly open and EMA(20) breaks the lower highs line
Recovery through the 0.6986 friday close reopens the 0.6995 weekly high
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC follows
21:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend inside this week's range · RSI 25 · price 0.6958
Lower highs since Monday's Asia high; holding 0.6932–0.6995 band.
The week opened with a gap from Friday's 0.6986 close to a 0.6966 weekly open. An Asia session rally reached the 0.6995 Monday high, briefly clearing Friday's high but stalling short of the 0.7000 handle, and that false break gave way to a London and NY sequence of lower highs at 0.6984 and 0.6975 as oil-driven haven USD demand returned. Price now sits at the 0.6955 session low, near the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Monday advance. It trades below EMA(20), which has rolled down to the weekly open around 0.6966, while RSI(14) near 25 sits in oversold territory and has started to flatten.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6943, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.6995
What it said to watch
RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read in a crowded net-short AUD market
H1 close below the 0.6955 session low exposes the 0.6943 prior low, then the 0.6932 week low
Recovery above the 0.6966 weekly open / EMA(20) and the lower-high line breaks the Monday sequence of lower highs; the 0.6975 lower high is next
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the 0.6932–0.6995 range
20:03 UTC
Pullback within last week's recovery, momentum lower · RSI 29 · price 0.69561
Lower highs since Monday's Asia peak; higher-low sequence broken.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 0.6986 close. The Asia session then pushed through the friday high to 0.6995, the monday high, but stalled again below 0.7000 and reversed. London and NY hours ground out lower highs as USD firmed on hawkish Fed pricing and Iran tensions, breaking the higher-low line that ran from the week low at 0.6932. Price now sits at the monday low near 0.6955, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the 0.6932–0.6995 advance, with ema20 near 0.6967 capping and RSI(14) pressed near 29.
Support: 0.69546, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.69881, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6955 monday low and 61.8% fib exposes the swing low at 0.6944
Recovery above ema20 near 0.6967 would break the Monday lower-highs sequence
Friday high 0.6988 and Monday high 0.6995 below 0.7000 mark the area to watch for rejection or break
Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC and RBA Minutes at Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; a break of the week low at 0.6932 would erase last week's recovery
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's Asia high, now testing the 61.8% retracement.
AUDUSD stalled at the 0.6995 Monday high in the Asia session, short of 0.7000. It has since printed lower highs and lower lows through London and NY as USD turned bid on Iran tensions in thin, holiday-affected trade. Price is below the 0.6966 weekly open and EMA(20), EMA(20) has crossed under EMA(50), and RSI(14) is near 31 at the 0.6955 session low, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday-low-to-Monday-high move.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6944, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69855, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6966 weekly open and the Monday lower-highs line would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.6944 swing low, then the 0.6932 Thu low
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC: a hawkish lean against crowded AUD shorts could drive a move back toward the 0.6986 fri close and 0.6995 Monday high
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia rejection; at 61.8% of prior leg.
The week opened with a ~20-pip gap lower to 0.6966. Asia pushed to a week high at 0.6995, but price was rejected below the 0.7000 psych cap. AUD then printed lower highs through the London and NY sessions as the USD recovered on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. Price has slipped back under the weekly open and EMA(20) to a session low at 0.6955, near the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday-to-Monday rally, with RSI(14) pressing 30.
Support: 0.69546, 0.69424, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69749, 0.69947
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6955 session low exposes the Wed low at 0.6942, then the prior wk low at 0.6932
H1 close back above the 0.6966 weekly open and the 0.6975 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish tone puts the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD event risk for the week's range
17:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend from Monday's 0.6995 high · RSI 32 · price 0.69574
Lower highs since Asia; testing 61.8% of Thu–Mon rally.
The Thursday–Monday rally from the 0.6932 thursday low topped out at 0.6995 in the Asia session, a rejection just short of 0.7000. Price has since printed lower highs through London and NY as the USD recovered on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. It now trades below the 0.6966 weekly open and the ema20 near 0.6970, sitting on the monday low at the 61.8% retracement with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.69546, 0.69438, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6970, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6955 monday low exposes the 0.6944 swing low, then the 0.6932 thursday low
Recovery above the weekly open and ema20 around 0.6966–0.6970 would break the lower-highs line from the monday high
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC, after Westpac confidence at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD-side risk to the structure this week
Lower highs since Monday's 0.6995 rejection; range 0.6932–0.6995.
Monday's Asia session push to the 0.6995 week high stalled below the 0.7000 psych level. Price has since printed lower highs through London and NY, unwinding most of Friday's rally from Thursday's 0.6932 week low as USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Iran tensions. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.6971 and is testing the 61.8% fib of that rally at 0.6956, which is also Friday's Asia base, with RSI(14) near 36 in thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.6956, 0.6944, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6971, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.6956 exposes Thursday's afternoon low at 0.6944, then the 0.6932 week low
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.6971 and a break of Monday's lower-highs line would neutralise the intraday down-leg
Repeat rejection under the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 psych keeps the range top intact
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read, given the elevated AUD net shorts
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC are USD-side risk for the range
Lower highs since Monday's high, retracing Thu–Mon rally.
AUDUSD gapped lower at Monday's weekly open of 0.6966 and filled the gap in the Asia session. It then met rejection at a 0.6995 week high just shy of 0.7000, and London and NY built a run of lower highs as USD firmed on the hawkish Fed and Iran tensions. Price now sits at the 0.6961 session low, below the ema20 near 0.6972 with RSI(14) at 37, after retracing just past 50% of the Thursday–Monday rally from 0.6932; the 61.8% fib at 0.6956 lines up with Friday's Asian-range lows, and the prior wk low at 0.6932 marks the range floor.
Support: 0.6961, 0.6956, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6972, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6966 weekly open and ema20 near 0.6972 would break Monday's lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.6956 exposes the prior wk low at 0.6932, the range floor
A push through the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 psych cap would revive the Thu–Mon rally structure
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today, then RBA Minutes at 00:30 UTC Tue, could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for the 0.6932–0.6995 range
Lower highs from the 0.6995 Monday high; testing the Thu–Mon rally midpoint.
The Thu–Mon rally ran from the 0.6932 week low, set in London on Thursday, to the 0.6995 Monday high in the Asia session. It followed a gap-down open below Friday's 0.6986 close and stopped just shy of 0.7000 as softer US yields lifted AUD. Since then a rejection has produced lower highs through London and thin US-holiday NY hours. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 0.6974 and the EMA(50), holding the Monday low at 0.6965, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s. The friday high at 0.6988 and the 0.6995 monday high remain the overhead cap below 0.7000.
Support: 0.6965, 0.6956, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6988, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6956 fib 61.8% retracement opens the 0.6932 week low
Hold above the 0.6965 monday low keeps the pullback shallow; a close back above the 0.6974 ema20 and the monday lower highs line neutralises the lower-high sequence
Repeated failure at the 0.6988 friday high and 0.6995 monday high would confirm the cap under 0.7000
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC, preceded by Westpac Consumer Confidence at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Fed Hammack today at 16:50 UTC are the next USD risk points
The Thursday–Friday recovery from the 0.6932 week low came on softer US yields and Friday's weak Michigan sentiment miss. Monday's Asia push to 0.6995 then stalled short of the 0.7000 psych level, and price has printed lower highs through London into the NY open, slipping below EMA(20) near 0.6975 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 41. Price now sits on the 0.6966 gap low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Thu–Mon fib, and has slipped below the rising trendline from Thursday's low in holiday-thin trade.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6956, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6966 gap low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.6956, then the 0.6932 week low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.6975 and the Monday lower highs line would neutralise the pullback read; the Monday high at 0.6995 and the 0.7000 psych level sit above
RBA minutes Tue 00:30 UTC: a hawkish lean against heavy AUD shorts could lift price back toward 0.7000
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD risk to this week's range
Higher lows from Thursday's 0.6932 low; lower highs since Monday's Asia peak.
The recovery from Thursday's 0.6932 week low came as Treasury yields corrected. Friday's soft UoM sentiment print extended it, and the Sunday gap low near 0.6966 was filled quickly before Monday's Asia session printed 0.6995, short of 0.7000 psych. London then built lower highs and pushed price back below the H1 EMA20 and EMA50, now pressing the gap low and the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Monday leg. RSI(14) has slipped to ~39 and the ATR is only ~6 pips, consistent with thin holiday-affected US trade.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6956, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6966 gap low exposes the fib 61.8 near 0.6956 and puts the higher-low sequence from the week low at risk
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.6976 and a break of the Monday lower-highs line would reopen the 0.6995 monday high and 0.7000 psych
Loss of 0.6956 brings the 0.6932 week low back into view
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC (preceded by Westpac Consumer Confidence Mon 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the main USD-side risks to the structure
11:03 UTC
Recovery stalling, pullback from week high · RSI 39 · price 0.69689
0.6932–0.6995 range, lower highs since Monday.
The rebound from Thursday's 0.6932 week low tracked the pullback in US yields. It extended to the 0.6995 Monday high in the Asia session, briefly clearing last week's 0.6988–0.6990 highs, then stalled short of the 0.7000 psych 0.70 cap. London has since unwound part of the move, dropping price below the EMA(20) at 0.6976 and the EMA(50) near 0.6974, with RSI(14) slipping to ~39 as price sits on the Friday low at 0.6967, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels. Thin US-holiday liquidity and Monday's lower highs keep this a pullback inside the week's range rather than a breakout.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6956, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 at 0.6976 would neutralise the Monday lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the friday low at 0.6967 exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.6956, with the week low at 0.6932 below
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC: a live November-hike signal could force a retest of the monday high and the psych 0.70 cap
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low Friday, lower high Monday under 0.7000; testing weekly open.
AUDUSD recovered from Thursday's 0.6932 prior wk low through Friday's NY session as US yields eased. Monday's gap down to 0.6966 was filled in the Asia session, and price set a 0.6995 week high but stalled under the 0.7000 psych mark, with supply capping a 0.6984 lower high. London open selling returned price to the 0.6966 weekly open, below ema20 (0.6977) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the high-30s and price sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the Thursday–Monday leg.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.6984, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6966 weekly open shifts focus to the 0.6942 wed low and the 0.6935 range floor
Recovery above ema20 at 0.6977 and the 0.6984 lower high reopens the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000
Failure to hold the 0.6932 prior wk low negates the Thursday–Monday recovery structure
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC today and RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US/Japan holidays keep liquidity thin
Higher lows from 0.6932, highs capped 0.6989–0.6995.
AUDUSD has printed higher lows since Thursday's London-session week low at 0.6932, with Friday's recovery on softer US yields extended in Monday's Asia session to a 0.6995 Monday high before stalling under the 0.7000 psych level. The weekend gap low at 0.6966 filled within hours and the pullback found the rising trendline at the 0.6973 Asia session low, a shallow ~34% retrace of the Thursday–Monday impulse. Price now sits on a flat EMA(20) near 0.6980 with RSI(14) around 52, and the 0.6989–0.6995 prior highs have now capped three advances this week.
Support: 0.69731, 0.6966, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69895, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 psych level breaks the three-touch cap at the prior highs
Loss of the 0.6973 session low and rising trendline exposes the gap low at 0.6966, near the 50% retrace of the impulse
Failure to hold 0.6966 undermines the higher-low sequence back toward the 0.6932 week low
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) is the main USD event risk for the week's range
05:06 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday's low, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 0.69772
Higher lows since Thursday; Monday rejected below 0.7000, back under EMA20.
Since Thursday's London-session week low at 0.6932, set as the hawkish FOMC Minutes and US yield spike faded, the pair has built higher lows, and Friday's UoM sentiment miss extended the leg into the NY close. Monday gapped down to the 0.6966 weekly open, filled the gap in the Asia session and printed a 0.6995 Monday high, but met rejection under the 0.7000 psych level. Price now sits just below the ema20 near 0.6980 with RSI(14) back to about 49, and sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the Thu-Mon fib.
Support: 0.6966, 0.69424, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.6966 weekly open keeps the higher-low line intact; an H1 close below it exposes the 0.6943 midweek low
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6980 and through the 0.6995 Monday high reopens the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6932 week low would void the recovery structure from Thursday
RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) and Westpac confidence (Mon 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack speaks during NY hours Monday
03:03 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday low, stalling under 0.7000 · RSI 54 · price 0.6980
Higher lows since 0.6932; Monday gap filled, rejection below 0.7000.
The recovery from last week's 0.6932 low in Thursday's London session built a sequence of higher lows into Friday's NY close near 0.6986, helped by the soft US UoM print and easing yields. Monday's 20-pip gap down to the 0.6966 weekly open was filled during the Asia session and ran to a 0.6995 week high, but sellers capped it below the 0.7000 psych level and the last bar handed price back to 0.6980, just under EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s, and the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Monday impulse sits near 0.6971, just above the weekly open.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could break the 0.6942–0.7020 range either way given heavy AUD short positioning
H1 close above the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.6995 week high exposes the 0.7020 range top
Failure to hold the 0.6966 weekly open breaks the higher-lows trendline and opens the Wed low at 0.6942, then the prior wk low at 0.6932
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD-side risk to this structure
Higher lows since 0.6932 week low; new week high at 0.6995 Asia high.
Wednesday's FOMC-minutes and yield-driven slide bottomed at 0.6932 on Thursday's NY session. Since then the pair has built a sequence of higher lows, and Friday's grind back above EMA(20) came as soft UoM sentiment eased the USD. Monday's gap down to the 0.6966 weekly open was filled within the first hours of Asia. Price is now holding just above the 0.6986 prior close and testing the 0.6995 Asia high under the 0.7000 round number, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.6986, 0.6966, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 round number opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
Loss of the 0.6986 prior close and EMA(20) (~0.6981) puts the 0.6966 weekly open and the 38.2% of the Thu-Mon rally (~0.6971) back in focus
Break below the higher lows trendline and 0.6932 prior wk low would undo the recovery structure
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD risk this week
Higher lows since Thursday's low, Tuesday high retested.
AUD has recovered the whole mid-week drop. Thursday's London-session week low at 0.6932 came after the hawkish FOMC Minutes, and a run of higher lows has followed since, with the softer USD after Friday's UoM miss doing the lifting. Monday's Asia session opened on a gap down to 0.6966, near Friday's 0.6967 swing low. The gap filled within the hour and price is now testing the 0.6989 Tue high, with RSI(14) in the low 60s and price above both EMAs. The 0.7000 round number sits directly overhead, with the 0.7020 range top beyond it.
Support: 0.69895, 0.69665, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 round number opens the path to the 0.7020 range top
Slip back below the 0.6989 Tue high turns the retest into a false break
Break of the higher-lows line and the 0.6967 swing low exposes the 0.6932 week low
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC (Westpac confidence Mon 23:30 UTC beforehand) could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD-side risk for this structure
00:05 UTC
Recovering from midweek low, testing range top · RSI 61 · price 0.69838
Rising lows since Thursday, capped under 0.6990 week high.
AUD/USD has rebuilt from Thursday's London-session week low at 0.6932 with a series of rising lows. Softer US yields and the Michigan sentiment miss carried it back to 0.6988 into Friday's NY close. Monday's Asia open gapped down to 0.6966, the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Friday rally, and that gap low has already been filled, with price back above EMA(20) near 0.6978 and RSI(14) around 61. The week high at 0.6990 capped both Tuesday's and Friday's highs and remains the range top.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6966, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6990 week high clears the range top and brings the 0.7000 round number into play
Loss of the 0.6966 gap low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 0.6932 week low
Westpac Consumer Confidence (Mon 23:30 UTC) and RBA Minutes (Tue 00:30 UTC) could reset the AUD read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) is the main USD-side risk to this structure