Higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low, capped below Monday's high.
The week opened on a gap lower to 0.6966. Monday's Asia push to the 0.6995 week high stalled below the 0.7000 psych level, and London and NY sellers drove the pair to the 0.6950 week low by early Tuesday. Hawkish RBA minutes and the pullback in US yields fuelled a steady Tuesday recovery through London and NY along a rising trendline of higher lows, retracing roughly three-quarters of the Monday drop. Price is now holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 61 and compressing just under the 0.6986 Tuesday high, with the late-NY low at 0.6976 as nearest support.
Support: 0.69762, 0.69495, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69863, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6986 tue high and the 0.6995 week high puts the 0.7000 psych level back in play
A break of the 0.6976 ny low and the rising trendline turns the Tuesday recovery into a range-bound pullback toward the 0.6950 week low
Loss of the 0.6950 week low exposes Thursday's 0.6932 prior low, near the 0.6935 support band
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
AU jobs data Thu 00:30 UTC (unemployment f/c 4.6%) is the next AUD-side catalyst
22:02 UTC
Recovering within weekly range, higher lows since Tuesday · RSI 60 · price 0.69814
Steady higher lows off 0.6950, pressing the Friday/Tuesday highs.
Monday's Asia-session spike to the 0.6995 week high faded through London and NY as the dollar hit a YTD high. Tuesday's week low at 0.6950 came in Asia, and the pair has since climbed on a rising trendline of higher lows as US yields eased and hawkish RBA minutes landed. Price holds above the EMA(20) near 0.6977 and has reclaimed the 61.8% of Monday's drop, but the tue high at 0.6986–0.6988, which matches Friday's highs, capped the NY session.
Support: 0.6977, 0.6966, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6995 week high opens the 0.7000 psych cap
Break of the Tuesday rising trendline and a close below the ema20 near 0.6977 would stall the recovery read
Failure to hold the 0.6966 weekly open puts the 0.6950 week low back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low, capped below prior high.
Monday's Asia-session week high at 0.6995 gave way to a London-NY slide to the 0.6950 week low as DXY hit a YTD high in thin Columbus Day trade. Tuesday reversed it as US yields pulled back: higher lows from Asia through NY retraced roughly 78.6% of Monday's drop, with price back above the weekly open at 0.6966. Price sits above EMA(20) near 0.6975 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 63, but two NY attempts stalled at 0.6986, just under Friday's prior high at 0.6988.
Support: 0.6975, 0.6966, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69881, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6995 week high opens the 0.7000 psych cap
Break of Tuesday's higher-low trendline and EMA(20) near 0.6975 would stall the recovery read
Loss of the 0.6966 weekly open puts the 0.6950 week low back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.6%) are a second range-break risk
AUD/USD has recovered most of Monday's thin Columbus Day slide. From the 0.6950 week low it climbed steadily through Asia, London and NY on Tuesday as US yields pulled back, with an unbroken higher-low trendline and price holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The leg stalled at the Tuesday high near 0.6986, just under last Friday's close and Monday's 0.6995 week high, so the 0.6950–0.6995 weekly range still holds.
Support: 0.6976, 0.6966, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69863, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 round number would break the weekly range top
Loss of the higher-low trendline and EMA(20) near 0.6976 would stall the Tuesday leg; the weekly open at 0.6966 sits between the 50% and 61.8% of the Tuesday leg fib
Holding above the 0.6950 week low keeps a higher low against last Thursday's 0.6932 trough
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read and decide the range break
19:04 UTC
Recovering, higher lows since Tuesday Asia · RSI 66 · price 0.69855
V-shaped rebound inside the 0.6932–0.6995 multi-day range.
Monday's Asia-session week high at 0.69947 gave way to a London-to-NY slide to the 0.69495 week low as DXY printed a YTD high in thin Columbus Day trade. Tuesday reversed it through London and NY on softer US yields, printing higher lows, reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.6975 and EMA(50) near 0.6971, and lifting price to the 78.6% retracement of the Monday drop. Price now sits just under the Friday high at 0.6988, with RSI(14) near 66, short of overbought, and the 0.69763 NY swing low marking the last pullback.
Support: 0.69763, 0.6966, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69881, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6988 Friday high exposes the 0.69947 week high and the 0.7000 psych level that capped last week
Break of the 0.69763 swing low and the Tuesday higher-lows trendline returns focus to the 0.6966 weekly open
Loss of the 0.6966 weekly open re-exposes the 0.69495 week low and invalidates the recovery read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, with Fed Bowman before and after, could materially shift this read; AU jobs follow Thu 00:30 UTC
18:04 UTC
Recovering within this week's range, momentum flattening · RSI 60 · price 0.69789
Higher lows from 0.6950, stalling below 0.6986.
The week opened on a gap to 0.6966 and Asia lifted the pair to the week high at 0.6995. A slow slide through Monday's thin Columbus Day London and NY sessions then reached the 0.6950 week low at Tuesday's Asian open. Tuesday's recovery came as US yields pulled back and printed an unbroken string of higher lows along a rising line. It retraced roughly 79% of Monday's decline before stalling at the 0.6986 Tue high, which sits just under last Friday's 0.6988 peak, in the NY session. Price holds above EMA20 near 0.6972 with RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s to about 60, consistent with momentum flattening rather than reversing.
Support: 0.6976, 0.6972, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising line near 0.6976 breaks Tuesday's higher-low sequence and exposes ema20 / 50% fib around 0.6972
H1 close above the 0.6986 Tue high puts the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 psych cap back in play
A return under 0.6950 week low would turn Tuesday's rebound into a lower high within the range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read, with Bowman remarks at 09:40 UTC beforehand
AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K / 4.6%) is the next AUD-side risk to the range read
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia low, capped at prior close.
The week opened with a gap lower at 0.6966 below Friday's 0.6986 prior close. Monday's Asia spike to the 0.6995 week high faded through London and NY as oil-driven haven USD bids built, leaving a week low at 0.6950 into Tuesday's Asia session. Tuesday's recovery printed steady higher lows through London and NY as US yields pulled back, lifting price back above EMA(20) near 0.6972 with RSI(14) in the low 60s, but the NY high stalled exactly at the 0.6986 prior close, where a rejection is now holding price just above the rising Tuesday trendline.
Support: 0.6972, 0.6966, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6986 prior close reopens the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 psych cap
Break of the Tuesday trendline and an H1 close below the ema20 at 0.6972 (38.2% of the Tuesday rally) exposes the 0.6966 weekly open near the 61.8% level
Loss of the 0.6950 week low would mark a lower low inside the 0.6935–0.7020 range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Tuesday recovery inside a two-way range · RSI 69 · price 0.69828
Higher lows from the 0.6950 week low, still below Monday's 0.6995 high.
The week opened with a gap down to 0.6966 (weekly open). Monday's Asia push to the 0.6995 week high stalled short of 0.7000 psych, and the pair slid about 45 pips into Tuesday's Asia week low at 0.6950 as oil and a YTD-high DXY lifted the dollar in thin Columbus Day trade. Since then, a steady run of higher lows through London and NY, helped by the US yield pullback, has put price back above EMA(20). That move has retraced roughly 74% of Monday's drop, and the Friday high at 0.6988 is the next cap.
Support: 0.6975, 0.6966, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69881, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 psych would break the range top that has capped repeated attempts
Loss of the 0.6975 higher low and the Tuesday trendline would expose the weekly open at 0.6966
Failure to clear the 0.6988 Friday high would leave a lower high versus Monday
RSI(14) near 70 on the approach to resistance; a lower RSI high on a new price high would flag divergence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core reopens the 0.6950 week low
AU employment Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.6% unemployment) is the next domestic catalyst
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia low, pressing Friday close.
The week opened with a gap down to the 0.6966 weekly open, which filled during Monday's Asia session. Price peaked at the 0.6995 week high, then sold off through the London and NY sessions to a 0.6950 week low early Tuesday as oil and haven USD demand weighed. Tuesday's recovery came as US yields pulled back and built steady higher lows through London and the NY open. That lifted price back above the EMA(20) near 0.6970 and the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 66. Price is now retesting the 0.6986 Friday close, roughly the 78.6% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday sell-off.
Support: 0.69703, 0.6966, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69855, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6995 week high puts the 0.7000 psych cap in play
Break of Tuesday's higher lows and an H1 close back below the ema20 near 0.6970 would return focus to the 0.6966 weekly open
Failure to hold the 0.6950 week low would mark a lower low for the week
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman and the Beige Book follow
AU employment Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K / 4.6%) is the next AUD-side catalyst
The week opened with a gap lower at the 0.6966 weekly open. An Asia-session spike to the 0.6995 week high met rejection below the 0.7000 round number, and the pair slid through Monday as the dollar held near its highs. Tuesday's Asian low at 0.6950 set a higher low above the 0.6932 swing low. A steady grind through London and into NY, helped by softer US yields denting the dollar, reclaimed the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.6967. Price stalled at the 0.6983 Tuesday high near the 61.8% retracement of the Monday drop, with RSI(14) back in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.69825, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6995 week high opens a retest of the 0.7000 round number
A break of the Tuesday higher-lows trendline and a slip back under the 0.6966 weekly open would return the read to range-low pressure
Failure to hold the 0.6950 week low exposes the 0.6932 swing low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
AU labour report Thu 00:30 UTC (employment f/c 20K, unemployment 4.6%) is a second event risk
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia inside a 0.6950–0.6995 week range.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's close. Monday's Asia push to a 0.6995 week high was rejected short of the 0.7000 round number and unwound through London and NY to a 0.6950 week low early Tuesday. Tuesday's London session recovered most of that leg as the USD eased on softer yields and oil, reclaiming the weekly open and EMA(20) with a run of higher lows. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement near 0.6978, with RSI(14) around 68.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6986 Friday close exposes the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 round number
Break of Tuesday's higher lows and a close back below the 0.6966 weekly open returns focus to the 0.6950 week low
Loss of 0.6950 opens the prior-week low at 0.6932
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 0.6950 Tuesday low after Monday's selloff from the 0.6995 week high; broader 0.6932–0.6995 range intact.
The week opened with a gap lower at 0.6966, beneath Friday's 0.6986 close. Asia filled the gap into a 0.6995 week high, then Monday's London and NY sessions sold back to 0.6955 as the oil spike and haven USD demand dominated, and the Tuesday low printed at 0.6950 in Asia. Since then, higher lows through Tuesday's Asia and London sessions have lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) as US yields eased. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Monday decline near 0.6977, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% at 0.6977 and the fri high at 0.6988 reopens the week high at 0.6995 and the 0.7000 psych cap that has repeatedly held
Rejection at the 61.8% and a break of the Tuesday higher-lows trendline below the week open at 0.6966 returns focus to the tuesday low at 0.6950, then the thursday low at 0.6932
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m, headline 3.7% y/y) could materially shift this read; ADP and Existing Home Sales later today add USD risk
AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC (f/c 20K / 4.6%) is the next AUD-side catalyst for a test of the range edges
11:03 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a weekly range · RSI 66 · price 0.69726
Higher lows off 0.6950 week low; testing fib retracement under 0.6995 week high.
AUDUSD gapped lower into Monday's 0.6966 weekly open and spiked to a 0.6995 week high in Asia. That rally was rejected below 0.7000, and price slid through London and NY hours as oil and hawkish Fed talk lifted the USD to fresh highs. After a 0.6950 week low in Tuesday's Asia session, a run of higher lows carried price back above the weekly open and EMA(20) as US yields eased, with RSI(14) near 66. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the Mon-Tue fib, capped so far at the 0.6975 session high, with Friday's 0.6986 prior close (the unfilled weekend gap) above.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69495, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69746, 0.69855, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6986 prior close fills Monday's gap and reopens the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 psych cap
Rejection at the 61.8% of the Mon-Tue fib near 0.6977 keeps the move a retracement within the week's range
Break of the higher lows trendline and an H1 close back below the 0.6966 weekly open and EMA(20) returns focus to the 0.6950 week low
Loss of 0.6950 exposes last week's 0.6932 swing low
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC today) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC), followed by AU jobs data Thu 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday lower highs, Tuesday higher lows inside a 0.6932–0.6995 band.
Monday's Asia spike to the 0.6995 week high met rejection. The pair then bled lower through holiday-thin London and NY trade as the USD printed an 18-month high, setting a 0.6950 week low at Tuesday's Asia open. Easing US yields have since driven a stepwise higher-low recovery through Asia and London, reclaiming the 0.6966 week open and the converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.6965. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the Monday decline fib, with RSI(14) near 59 and the 0.6975 session high capping so far.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 session high (near the 61.8% of the Monday decline) opens the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 psych level
Failure back below the 0.6966 week open and the Tuesday higher-low trendline returns focus to the 0.6950 week low
A break of the 0.6950 week low exposes last Thursday's 0.6932 prior low
US Sept CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Rebounding off Tuesday low, week still below Monday high · RSI 55 · price 0.69711
Monday lower highs broken; higher lows since Tuesday Asia.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's close at 0.6986. Asia filled it to a 0.6995 Monday high, which was rejected just under 0.7000, and Monday's lower highs then carried price to a 0.6950 Tuesday low in thin US-holiday trade as the oil-driven USD bid built. Since then, higher lows through Asia and the London open have lifted price back above the 0.6966 weekly open and EMA(20)/EMA(50). RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s, and price is pressing the 50% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday slide just beneath the 0.6975 lower high.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6986, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 lower high reopens the friday close at 0.6986 and the monday high at 0.6995
Slip back below the 0.6966 weekly open and EMA(20) turns the rebound into a lower high, exposing the tuesday low at 0.6950 and then last wk low at 0.6932
Break of the Tuesday Asia higher lows trendline would end the current rebound sequence
US Sept CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, then AU jobs Thu 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6995 week high; bounce off 0.6950 now back at weekly open.
AUDUSD reached a 0.6995 week high in Monday's Asia session but was rejected just under 0.7000 psych. It then slid through London and a thin Columbus Day NY session as the oil-driven USD bid lifted DXY to a 17-month high. Lower highs at 0.6984 and the 0.6975 lower high framed the drop to a 0.6950 week low at Tuesday's Asia open, where the RBA Minutes drew little reaction and demand stepped in. Price is now back at the 0.6966 weekly open and the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop, just above EMA(20) and pressing EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 0.6966, 0.69495, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69749, 0.69947, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6975 lower high (50% fib zone) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the weekly open and a close below the 0.6950 week low confirms a lower low, exposing last Thursday's 0.6932 prior low
US Sept CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
AU labour report Thu 00:30 UTC (unemployment f/c 4.6%) is the next AUD-side risk
Rejection under 0.7000, higher lows off Tuesday's Asian low inside the 0.6932–0.6995 range.
Monday's gap-lower weekly open at 0.6966 ran to a 0.6995 week high in early Asia. Supply then capped the pair just under the 0.7000 psych level, and an oil-driven USD bid ground it down through London and NY to 0.6955. Tuesday's Asian low at 0.6950 held through the hawkish-leaning RBA minutes, and price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.6962. It is now pressing the weekly open and the 38.2% retracement at 0.6967, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s inside last Thursday's 0.6932 swing low to 0.6995 range.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6967 weekly open / 38.2% retracement opens the path back toward the 0.6995 week high and 0.7000 psych
Slip back below ema20 at 0.6962 and the Asian low at 0.6950 would put the 0.6932 swing low back in play
Fed's Waller (07:45 UTC today) and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Australian labour force data Thu 00:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst for a test of either end of the range
06:04 UTC
Pullback within weekly range, stabilising at mid-retracement · RSI 49 · price 0.69636
The rally from the 0.6932 thu low peaked at the 0.6995 monday high in Monday's Asia session. The reversal then ran through London and a thin Columbus Day NY session as oil and hawkish Fed commentary lifted USD, carrying price under the monday low at 0.6955 into a 0.6950 asia low on Tuesday, roughly a 72% retracement. Price has since recovered to the 50% level near 0.6964, just above EMA(20) but capped by EMA(50) and the 0.6966 weekly open, with RSI(14) back to 49 from sub-30 readings at the low.
Support: 0.69546, 0.69495, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69855, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6966 weekly open and EMA(50) reopens the 0.6986 friday close and the 0.6995 monday high
Failure to hold the 0.6955 monday low and 0.6950 asia low exposes the 0.6932 thu low and the rising support line
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Australian jobs data Thu 00:30 UTC is the next domestic catalyst for the range
05:05 UTC
Downtrend since Monday, bounce stalling at EMA20 · RSI 41 · price 0.69592
Lower highs from 0.6995 week high; tight 0.6950–0.6962 base.
Monday's gap down to the 0.6966 weekly open was filled in Asia, but the run met rejection at the 0.6995 week high, just under 0.7000. London and NY then printed a sequence of lower highs into the 0.6950 swing low as DXY pushed to year-to-date highs on oil and hawkish Fedspeak. Tuesday's Asia bounce off 0.6950 after the RBA minutes is stalling at EMA(20), with price below both EMAs and the weekly open, and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6975, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6966 weekly open and the 0.6975 lower high (near the 50% fib of Monday's decline) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6950 swing low exposes Thursday's 0.6932 week low
Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Australian jobs data Thu 00:30 UTC is the next domestic test of the 0.6995 week high cap
Lower highs since Monday's rejection below 0.7000, compressing above the Asia low.
Monday's Asia push to the 0.6995 week high stalled short of the 0.7000 round number. The pair then bled lower through London and NY as a haven USD bid built with WTI above $93, retracing roughly 61.8% of the Thu–Mon rally off the 0.6932 prior low. Tuesday's Asia session printed a 0.6950 Asia low around the RBA minutes before a shallow bounce, and price is now pinned just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 43. That leaves a tight 0.6950–0.6966 band below the week open.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6995, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6966 week open would undercut the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6950 Asia low exposes the 0.6932 prior low, the base of the Thu–Mon rally
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AU September jobs Thu 00:30 UTC; a strong print puts the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 round number back in focus
Lower highs since Monday's 0.6995 high; retracing last week's 0.6932–0.6995 advance.
The week opened on a gap down to 0.6966, and an Asia-session push to the 0.6995 week high met rejection just shy of 0.7000. London and NY sellers then drove a sequence of lower highs as DXY printed a year-to-date high on oil and hawkish Fed talk. The slide stalled at the 0.6950 Asia low after the hawkish RBA minutes, and price is holding at the 61.8% fib of last week's 0.6932–0.6995 rally, still capped by EMA(20).
Support: 0.6956, 0.6950, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6966, 0.6995
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6966 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the short-term downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6950 Asia low exposes last week's 0.6932 prior low, the floor of the 0.6935–0.7000 range
EMA(20) near 0.6961 is the first test for any bounce; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Fed's Waller today 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Australia labour force report Thu 00:30 UTC adds two-way risk given crowded AUD shorts
02:03 UTC
Downtrend since Monday's week high, RSI near 30 · RSI 29 · price 0.69547
Lower highs under a falling trendline; price compressed just above Tuesday low.
Monday opened with a roughly 20-pip gap down from Friday's 0.6986 close. Price then pushed to the 0.6995 week high in the Asia session before sliding steadily through London and NY hours, back below the 0.6966 weekly open. Thin Columbus Day trade, oil above $93 and a fresh DXY year-to-date high drove the USD bid. Early Tuesday, the hawkish RBA minutes lifted price off the 0.6950 Tuesday low only briefly: the bounce stalled under EMA(20) near 0.6961 and beneath the falling lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) holding near 30 and hourly ranges contracting.
Support: 0.69495, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6966, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(20) at 0.6961 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs; the weekly open at 0.6966 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Monday–Tuesday decline
Failure to hold the 0.6950 Tuesday low exposes the prior-wk low at 0.6932, the floor of last week's range
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 0.6995 week high would require reclaiming the 61.8% fib near 0.6977 first
Lower highs from 0.6995 week high; tight Asian range near 0.6950.
The week opened with a gap down to 0.6966. Price then faded from the 0.6995 week high in Monday's Asia session. London and NY hours printed successive lower highs, and price now sits below the ema20 (0.6962) and the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Monday advance. A firm USD on oil and hawkish Fed talk drove the slide, and the hawkish RBA minutes in Tuesday's Asia session failed to lift AUD, which tagged a 0.6950 Asian low instead; RSI(14) near 25 is oversold with ATR(14) compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 0.69495, 0.69424, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6966, 0.69947
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and lower-highs trendline near 0.6962 would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.6950 Asian low exposes the 0.6942 Wed low, then the 0.6932 prior wk low near the 0.6935 band floor
Recovery through the 0.6966 weekly open would shift focus back to the 0.6995 week high and the 0.7000 cap
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC), US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) and Australian jobs (Thu 00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 0.6995 peak, flattening at 61.8% retrace.
AUDUSD gapped lower to 0.6966 at Monday's open, below Friday's 0.6985 prior close, then rallied to a 0.6995 week high in the Asia session. It faded through London and NY as oil-driven haven USD demand returned, giving back about 64% of the Thursday-to-Monday advance from the 0.6932 Thursday low. Price has stalled on the 0.6955 Monday low at the 61.8% retracement, under a falling EMA(20) near 0.6962, with RSI(14) near 31 and hourly ranges compressing into the thin US holiday close.
Support: 0.69546, 0.6944, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.69855, 0.69947
What it said to watch
RBA minutes at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish surprise against the crowded short would put the ema20 and the 0.6985 prior close back in play
An H1 close below the 0.6955 Monday low extends the lower-highs sequence toward the 0.6944 swing low and the 0.6932 Thursday low, near the 0.6935 band floor
A close back above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 near 0.6962 would neutralise the Monday fade; the 0.6995 week high caps below 0.7000
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC and Waller on Tue 07:45 UTC are the next USD-side risks to the structure