Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6932 low, capped by the 0.6990 week high.
AUDUSD slid from Tuesday's 0.6990 week high to a 0.6932 week low during Thursday's London session on risk-off equity selling. It then recovered through Friday as US yields eased, with the NY-open dip finding the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday rally near 0.6967. Monday's Asia session opened on a gap down to 0.6966 that was largely retraced within the hour. Price now sits above the ema20 near 0.6978 and EMA(50) at 0.6972 with RSI(14) at 57, but Friday's 0.6988 high stalled just under the week high, leaving the 0.6932–0.6990 range intact.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6967, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6990 week high breaks the range top and brings the 0.7000 round number into view
Loss of the ema20 near 0.6978 and then the 38.2% fib at 0.6967 (Friday NY low and gap low) would undercut the higher-low sequence
Close below the 0.6932 week low invalidates the range read
RBA Minutes Tue 13 Oct 00:30 UTC and US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Recovering inside range, capped at top · RSI 54 · price 0.69798
0.6932–0.6990 range; three rejections at range top, Sunday gap low held.
Tuesday's NY-hours high at 0.6990 set the range top, and the slide that followed bottomed at the 0.6932 week low during Thursday's London session as risk-off weighed on AUD. Friday's Thursday-Friday rally, helped by the US yield pullback, retested the range top at London open and again late in NY hours, with rejection both times just under 0.6990. Sunday's open gapped about 20 pips lower to the 0.6966 gap low, at the 38.2% retracement of that rally, and price has since worked back above ema20 near 0.6977 toward the 0.69855 friday close, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.6977, 0.6966, 0.69324
Resistance: 0.69855, 0.6989, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6989 range top and the 0.7000 psych level breaks a three-test cap and invalidates the range read
Failure to fill the gap back to the friday close at 0.69855 keeps the Sunday gap open below the range top
Loss of the 0.6966 gap low, at the 38.2% retracement, exposes the 50% at 0.6960 and the 0.6932 week low
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC and Australian jobs Thu 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read given heavy AUD net shorts
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD risk to the range structure
21:06 UTC
Range-bound, Friday recovery faded by weekend gap · RSI 41 · price 0.6968
0.6932–0.6990 range; higher low Friday, gap lower at weekly open.
The week chopped inside 0.6932–0.6990. Tuesday's London-NY rally set the week high at 0.6990. The hawkish-FOMC selloff on Wednesday and Thursday's risk-off dip printed the week low at 0.6932, then Friday's yield-driven rebound ground back to 0.6988, just under the range top. The weekly open at 0.6966 gapped about 19 pips below Friday's close and below the rising trendline off Thursday's low. Price now sits under EMA20 near 0.6976 and on the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Friday rally fib, with RSI(14) slipping to 41.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6943, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6986, 0.6990
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the weekly open at 0.6966 shifts focus back to the 0.6943 range floor and the 0.6932 week low
Recovery through EMA20 at 0.6976 and a gap fill to 0.6986 would put the 0.6990 week high and range top back in play
RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC: in a heavily net-short AUD market, a hawkish tilt could force a range break above 0.6990
Westpac Consumer Confidence Mon 23:30 UTC, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above the rising trendline from Thursday's low negates the gap-down read