Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; tight base above week low.
The week opened at 0.6868 and peaked at 0.6930 on Monday, but Tuesday's hot US CPI in the NY session broke the pair below 0.6900. Since then the lower-high trendline has capped every bounce, from Wednesday's failure near the 61.8% fib to Thursday's 0.6836 swing high. Thursday's NY session, with claims and heavy Fedspeak, drove a fresh week low at 0.6798, and price now sits below a falling ema20 (0.6819) and ema50 (0.6840). RSI(14) at 29.4 is oversold after troughing at 23.7, and ATR has eased to 8.5 pips as price coils in a 10-pip consolidation just above the week low and the 0.6800 handle.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68188, 0.68359, 0.68404
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read in the next bar
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC; a hot core print versus the 0.3% forecast is the main volatility risk for the week low
H1 close below the 0.6798 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 and the 0.6836 swing high would break the lower-high trendline
Ema50 at 0.6840, alongside the broken 0.6843 lows, is the next cap if that trendline gives way
Lower highs since Wednesday, tight range under EMA(20).
Monday's rally stalled twice at 0.6930. That double top gave way on Tuesday's hot US CPI, and Wednesday's Asia-session bounce to 0.6885 started a sequence of lower highs. Thursday's NY session extended the slide to a week low at 0.6798 as the Fed-hike repricing kept the USD bid, leaving price about 58 pips below the 0.6866 week open and under both a falling EMA(20) at 0.6820 and EMA(50) at 0.6842. Since then the pair has compressed in a 15-pip range, with RSI(14) back to 31 from 23.7 and ATR(14) easing to 8.7 pips.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68203, 0.68418, 0.68664
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the ema20 (0.6820) and the lower-highs line would break the sequence of lower highs in place since Wednesday
Acceptance below the 0.6798 week low extends the downtrend; holding it keeps the post-NY consolidation intact
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A recovery to the ema50 (0.6842) would meet the 38.2% fib of the week's decline near 0.6848, with the week open at 0.6866 above
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but no basing yet · RSI 28 · price 0.68053
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; pausing at week low.
The double top near 0.6930 on Monday and Tuesday gave way when Tuesday's hot US CPI hit the NY open. Since then AUDUSD has carved a lower-highs sequence, with NY hours driving each leg as the hawkish Fed repricing lifted the USD. Thursday's NY push printed a week low at 0.6798, near the 0.6800 round number, before stalling in a tight box. RSI(14) sits at 27.5, oversold, and ATR(14) is steady near 9 pips. Price holds below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6822 and EMA(50) at 0.6843, and the EMA(20) has capped bounces since Wednesday.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68215, 0.68359, 0.68432
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 acceptance below the 0.6798 week low extends the lower-low sequence
An H1 close above the 0.6836 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the ema50 at 0.6843 in play
A rebound into the 38.2% high-low fib of the week's move near 0.6849 would be the first test of the downtrend structure
The week's decline from Monday's 0.6931 high turned decisive on Tuesday's hot US CPI break. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at 0.6885, and lower highs have followed since, with today's NY session cutting through the 0.6814 London low to a 0.6798 week low at 10-month lows. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6823 and EMA(50) at 0.6845, with RSI(14) oversold at 25.2 and ATR near 9-10 pips; closes are holding just above the 0.6800 psych level.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.68232, 0.68359
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.6814 London low would undercut today's breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.6800 psych level and the 0.6798 week low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery through EMA(20) at 0.6823 and the 0.6836 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
A new price low with a higher RSI(14) low would flag rsi divergence (bullish); none is present yet
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extending · RSI 24 · price 0.68023
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's failed bounce.
Tuesday's hot US CPI broke AUDUSD off Monday's 0.6930 week high. Wednesday's Asia-session bounce to 0.6885 failed, and Thursday's NY session pressed a fresh week low at 0.67975 as hawkish Fedspeak kept the USD bid. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.68253 and EMA(50) at 0.68464, with ATR(14) expanding to 9.6 pips and RSI(14) at 23.7 oversold, printing lower lows with no divergence.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68253, 0.68359, 0.68464
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.68359 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and the lower-highs trendline
Recovery through the ema20 at 0.68253 would be the first sign the oversold slide is easing
ema50 at 0.68464 sits next to the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline, a confluence area to watch for rejection
Acceptance below the 0.67975 week low and the 0.6800 handle extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extending · RSI 25 · price 0.68041
Lower highs since Wednesday's bounce, fresh week low.
AUDUSD has unwound the whole Monday advance to the 0.6930 week high. The hot US CPI drove a 60-pip NY session drop on Tuesday, and Wednesday's 0.6885 bounce has since built a sequence of lower highs. Thursday's NY session broke below the London low at 0.68144 and the 0.6808 ten-month low, printing a 0.67975 week low as hawkish Fedspeak extended the USD bid. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.68277, and RSI(14) at 24.8 is oversold without bullish divergence; ATR has expanded from 7.6 to around 10 pips through the slide.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68144, 0.68277, 0.6843
What it said to watch
Daly, Schmid and Williams speak over the next six hours; 50bp December talk could extend the move below the week low
H1 close back above the London low at 0.68144 would put the break of the 0.6808 ten-month low in doubt
Recovery through the falling ema20 at 0.68277 and the lower highs line would break the sequence of lower highs
The 0.6843 cpi low, tested twice before giving way, is the next resistance above
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst; failure to hold the 0.6800 handle and week low extends the downtrend
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold with expanding range · RSI 26 · price 0.68076
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
The early-week climb to 0.6931 reversed hard on Tuesday's hot US CPI print. Since then the pair has run a clean sequence of lower highs, and Wednesday's bounce to 0.6885 failed. The NY session today extended the slide to a 0.6798 week low before price steadied near the 0.6800 round number. Price sits below both EMA(20) at 0.6830 and EMA(50) at 0.6850, with RSI(14) at 26.3 in oversold territory and ATR(14) expanding from 7.1 to 10.2 pips over the last 20 bars.
Support: 0.67975, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6830, 0.6843, 0.68499
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.6830 and the lower-highs trendline would break the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6798 week low and 0.6800 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Tue-Wed lows near 0.6843, the ema50 at 0.6850 and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI selloff at 0.6848 form a resistance cluster on any rebound
Fed's Daly and Schmid speak within 90 minutes and Williams later; US PPI on Fri at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has printed a steady run of lower highs since Monday's 0.6931 high. Tuesday's hotter US CPI broke the pair through 0.6900 during NY hours, and Fed-hike repricing has since extended the slide to a fresh week low at 0.6798 in today's first hour of NY. Price sits below both EMA(20) at 0.6832 and EMA(50) at 0.6852, and the pullback into the lower-high trendline stalled short of the ema20. RSI(14) is oversold at 26.6 and ATR has expanded to 10.3 pips, while the broken tue-wed lows at 0.6843 mark the next ceiling above.
Support: 0.6798
Resistance: 0.6832, 0.6843, 0.6852
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6832 and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Reclaiming the tue-wed lows at 0.6843 and the ema50 at 0.6852 would neutralise this week's breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.6798 week low extends the lower-low sequence below the 0.6800 handle
Fed's Goolsbee (~30 min), Daly, Schmid and Williams later today could shift USD hike pricing and this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next high-impact risk for the dollar leg
Lower highs since Wednesday, retesting 0.6814 low.
Monday's rally to 0.6931 was fully unwound after Tuesday's hotter US CPI broke the pair through 0.6900 in NY hours. Since Wednesday's Asia session a sequence of lower highs has carried price to a fresh week low at 0.6814, made during London today, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6835 and EMA(50) at 0.6853. RSI(14) at 29.5 is oversold but holding above this morning's 27.1 trough as the low is retested, while ATR has expanded to 9.6 pips, extending the week's drop.
Support: 0.68142, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68347, 0.68533, 0.68664
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 near 0.6835 would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.6814 week low exposes the 0.6800 round number
Reclaiming ema50 at 0.6853 and the weekly open at 0.6866 would retrace a large part of the week's drop
Fedspeak today (Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) and Friday's US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI breakdown, equal lows near 0.6815.
AUDUSD has fully unwound Monday's rebound to the 0.6930 week high. Tuesday's hot US CPI at the NY open triggered the breakdown, and every bounce since has printed a lower high beneath a falling EMA(20), with the lower-high line capping the 0.6836 bounce this morning. London set a fresh week low at 0.6814, and the dip after the jobless claims print held 0.6817 as RSI(14) recovered to 33.8 from a 27.1 low, so the slide is pausing below the ema20 at 0.6837 while ATR(14) expands to 9.3 pips.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68366, 0.68433, 0.68549
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.6837 and the lower-high line would break the lower-high sequence, with the prior lows at 0.6843 as the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6814 week low resumes the downtrend and exposes the 0.6800 round number
The ema50 at 0.6855 sits below the 38.2% retracement of the week high-low move and marks the upper bound of any recovery
Fed speakers through the NY session (Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Williams) and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below both EMAs; bounce capped under ema20.
AUD/USD opened the week at 0.6866 and built a double top near the 0.6930 week high on Monday and Tuesday. The hotter US CPI print then knocked it through 0.6900 during NY hours, part of the Fed-RBA divergence the macro read describes. Since then H1 has printed lower highs along a falling trendline, and Thursday's London session marked a week low at 0.6814. The rebound stalled below the ema20 at 0.6838 and price sits under both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 35 after dipping below 30 at that low and ATR expanding to 9 pips.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6838, 0.68433, 0.68562
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims in under 30 minutes, then a Fedspeak slate from Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee and Daly, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.6838 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs; the prior low at 0.6843 (Tuesday's post-CPI low) sits just above
Failure to hold the week low at 0.6814 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Recovery above the ema50 at 0.6856, near the 38.2% retracement of the week high-to-low range, would undercut the downtrend structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; bounce capped below EMA(20).
Monday's rally to 0.6930 was fully reversed after Tuesday's hot US CPI during NY hours. AUDUSD has since printed a series of lower highs, with the week low at 0.6814 set at Thursday's London open as USD extended on firming December Fed hike pricing. The London bounce to 0.6836 stalled just under EMA(20) at 0.6839, both EMAs are sloping lower, RSI(14) has recovered to 36 from a 27 dip and ATR(14) has expanded to 9.2 pips from about 7 earlier.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68393, 0.68507, 0.68664
What it said to watch
H1 close above EMA(20) at 0.6839 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence; the next lower high sits at 0.6851
A break below the 0.6814 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 psych level
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the afternoon Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
Week open at 0.6866 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the week drop; a reclaim would neutralise the post-CPI structure
Lower highs since Monday's 0.6930 peak; Wednesday's 0.6843 floor broken.
AUDUSD has fully reversed Monday's rally to 0.6930. The hot US core CPI broke 0.6900 during Tuesday's NY session, and each bounce since has formed a lower high along the declining trendline. Thursday's slide from the Asia session into London open broke Wednesday's 0.6843 prior low and printed a session low at 0.6814, with RSI(14) dipping to 27.1 before recovering to 39.3 as ATR expanded to 9.3 pips. Price is rebounding beneath both EMAs, and the ema20 at 0.6841 is the first test of the bounce, roughly at the 23.6% retracement of the Monday-Thursday drop.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68405, 0.68432, 0.68586
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 0.6843 prior low would mark the first break of the lower-highs sequence
Rejection below ema20 keeps the downtrend intact, with the 0.6814 session low and the 0.6800 round number below
A recovery through the ema50 at 0.6859 (near the 38.2% retracement) would put the descending trendline under pressure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a heavy Fedspeak slate today could materially shift this read; Friday's PPI is the week's main USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break; fresh week low at London open.
The week opened at 0.6866 and Monday's rally peaked at 0.6931. Tuesday's hot US CPI then drove a CPI leg lower, and Waller's 50bp warning added to it, with each session since printing lower highs along a falling trendline. Price sits below a declining EMA(20) at 0.6843 and EMA(50) at 0.6861. London open broke the Asian low at 0.6834 and the SocGen 0.6833 zone, reaching a week low at 0.6814, with RSI(14) at 27.1 oversold and ATR rising from 7.1 to 9.2 pips.
Support: 0.68144, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.6834, 0.6843, 0.6861
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6834 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6814 week low exposes the 0.6800 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.6843 and the lower highs trendline would break the sequence of lower lows; ema50 at 0.6861 sits above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through the NY session could materially shift this read; core PPI follows Friday
Fib retracement of the CPI leg: a rebound toward 0.6859 (38.2%) would test the ema50 area
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and extending · RSI 28 · price 0.68225
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break from 0.6930.
Monday's rebound to the 0.6930 week high reversed in Tuesday's NY session after hot US core CPI, and the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs since. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at 0.6885, and Thursday's Asia and London open extended to a new week low at 0.6819, below the 0.6834 broken low and the 0.6833 SocGen support. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6845 and EMA(50) at 0.6863, with RSI(14) at 27.9 oversold and still making lower lows alongside price, while ATR(14) has expanded from 7.1 to 8.9 pips.
Support: 0.68186, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68343, 0.68452, 0.68626
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6834 broken low would signal the break below 0.6833 support is not holding
Lower-highs trendline and ema20 converge near 0.6845; a close above both would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.6819 week low exposes the 0.6800 round number
Recovery through the ema50 at 0.6863 would bring the 38.2% fib of the week's high-to-low move (~0.6861) into play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break.
AUDUSD has fully unwound Monday's oil-driven rally to the 0.6930 week high. The hot US CPI print broke the move during Tuesday's NY session, and a sequence of lower highs has followed since. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.68474 and EMA(50) at 0.68642, and the Asia session slipped through the 0.6834 prior low to a fresh week low at 0.68286. RSI(14) at 31 is holding above its earlier 29.2 trough despite the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR near 8.5 pips points to compressed ranges.
Support: 0.68286, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68343, 0.68474, 0.68664
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6834 prior low would mark the latest break as a false break
Close above the ema20 at 0.68474 and the lower highs trendline would interrupt the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 0.68286 week low leaves the 0.6800 psych level as the next reference
38.2% fib retracement of the week high to week low decline sits near 0.6868, just above the 0.68664 weekly open
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and a run of Fed speakers through NY hours could materially shift this read
Monday's oil-driven bounce to 0.6930 was fully unwound after Tuesday's hotter US CPI. The NY session delivered the decisive leg, and bounces since have printed lower highs along a descending trendline, with price below EMA(20) at 0.6849, EMA(50) at 0.6866 and the weekly open at 0.6866. The Asia session pushed to a fresh week low at 0.6832, near the digest's 0.6833 support, while RSI(14) at 34.5 holds above its 29.2 trough, a mild bullish divergence against the lower price low.
Support: 0.68315, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68433, 0.68493, 0.68664
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the prior low at 0.6843 and EMA(20) at 0.6849 would break the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 0.6832 extends the downtrend, with the 0.6800 round number the next reference
A recovery to the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline near 0.6869, alongside the weekly open, would mark a deeper correction
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and a heavy Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs since Wednesday's Asia high, sitting at the week low.
Monday's rebound to 0.6930 was fully reversed in Tuesday's NY session, when hotter US CPI drove a 60-pip drop through the weekly open. The CPI sell-off has since printed a clean lower-high trendline from the 0.6885 wed high, with price capped below the falling ema20 (0.6851) and ema50 (0.6867, near the 0.6866 weekly open). The Asia session pushed to a new week low at 0.6834, but RSI(14) held 34 against Wednesday's 29.5 trough, a modest bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed to 8.5 pips.
Support: 0.68343, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.68506, 0.68668, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and lower-high trendline near 0.6851 breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 0.6834 week low and the 0.6830 round number extends the downtrend into fresh lows
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and a string of Fed speakers in NY hours could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the ema50 and weekly open at 0.6867 would neutralise the post-CPI structure
Lower highs since Wednesday's bounce high, fresh week low in Asia.
Monday's oil-driven rally to the 0.6931 week high was fully unwound after Tuesday's hotter US CPI broke the pair back below the 0.6866 weekly open during NY hours, and the early-Wednesday bounce high at 0.6884 has been followed by a steady run of lower highs. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6852 and EMA(50) at 0.6868, with the Asia session printing a new week low at 0.6834 as the USD holds its post-CPI bid. RSI(14) at 41 has lifted off 29, holding a higher low against the dip to the 0.6843 cpi low area, a modest bullish divergence while ATR stays compressed near 9 pips.
Support: 0.68434, 0.68343
Resistance: 0.68519, 0.68664, 0.6884
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 0.6852 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs
Reclaim of the weekly open at 0.6866, alongside EMA(50) at 0.6868, would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6834 week low extends the lower-low sequence and cancels the RSI divergence
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and a heavy Fedspeak slate today could materially shift this read
Retracement toward the 0.6884 bounce high, near the 50% fib of the week high to week low move, would put the bounce high back in focus as resistance
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI break, pressing week low.
Monday's oil-driven rally to 0.6930 was fully reversed after the hot US core CPI print at Tuesday's NY open, and the pair has printed a lower-high sequence since, with the lower-high trendline capping the bounces. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6852 and EMA(50) at 0.6869, and today's Asia session extended to a new week low at 0.6834, inside the March-lows zone the market context flags. RSI(14) at 34.4 is holding above its 29 trough from Wednesday's NY session despite the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR is re-expanding from 7.1 to 8.6 pips.
Support: 0.68343, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68524, 0.68688, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6834 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6800 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 0.6852 together with a break of the lower-high trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
Close above ema50 at 0.6869 opens the 0.6885 swing high, near the 50% fib of the week's drop
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through Williams at 23:30 UTC, plus Friday's core PPI, could shift 50bp pricing and this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; fresh week low just under Tuesday's low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since early Wednesday, when the bounce stalled at the 0.6885 wed high, close to the 50% retrace of the week high-low leg from Monday's 0.6931 top. The leg lower began with Tuesday's hot US CPI in the NY session and resumed through London and NY on Wednesday as Fed hike pricing firmed. Asia has now set a new week low at 0.6835, just under the 0.6843 Tuesday low, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 0.6854 and EMA(50) at 0.6871, RSI(14) at 31 and ATR compressed to 7.8 pips.
Support: 0.68354, 0.6800
Resistance: 0.68434, 0.68543, 0.6885
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.6843 Tuesday low would turn the new week low into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6835 week low leaves the 0.6800 round number as the next marker
Close above the ema20 at 0.6854 and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read; 0.6885 wed high caps above
RSI(14) closing below 30 would flag oversold after two brief dips there on Wednesday
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fedspeak into Williams late Thursday could materially shift this read