22:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum accelerating · RSI 33 · price 0.68081
Head and shoulders confirmed; lower highs since early-September 0.7237 top.
The early-September 0.7237 high marked the head of a head and shoulders. The late-October right shoulder at 0.7068 set a lower high, and the 6 November payrolls beat broke the 0.6900 neckline. Monday's retest stalled near 0.6930, and the hot US CPI print resumed the slide as Fed-RBA divergence widened. Price now sits at a 10-month low near 0.6798, below a falling EMA(50) at 0.6994, with ATR expanding from 41 to 54 pips over two weeks.
Support: 0.67975, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.6850, 0.6900, 0.69938
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.6900 neckline would turn the breakdown into a false break
- Acceptance below the 0.6798 10-month low extends the pattern; 0.6700 round number is the next reference below
- 0.6850 former support now first resistance; a rebound capped there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
- RSI at 32.6 is close to the 30 oversold line after five down sessions in six
- US PPI Fri, then RBA minutes and Bullock Tue and AU employment Thu could materially shift this read
- Recovery of the ema50 near 0.6994 needed to neutralise the swing-trend filter