AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 15 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 53 · price 0.7069
Rebound from 0.6979 trough, basing above 0.7050.
AUDUSD trended lower through the window, sliding from the 0.7200 area to a 0.6979 trough before twin tests there carved a double bottom and sparked a recovery toward 0.7088. Price now holds above the 0.7050 50% fibo with EMA20 reclaimed but still under EMA50, leaving the broader down-leg unresolved. ATR(14) has compressed to ~24 pips, consistent with a coil ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7180
What it said to watch
RBA decision + statement (~7h) is the dominant catalyst for this read
H4 close below 0.7050 reopens the 0.7000 psych handle and 0.6979 trough
Break above 0.7088 swing high extends the rebound toward 0.7180 prior high
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 56 · price 0.7069
Lower lows into 0.6979 trough, rising lows since.
AUDUSD trended lower through the window, carving lower lows into a 0.6979 trough mid-period on hot US PPI and Iran-conflict risk-off. Price has since rebounded to ~0.7070 on the US-Iran relief bid and softer USD, printing rising lows and reclaiming the EMA20 while still capped below the EMA50. The 0.6979 base held twice, hinting at a rounded bottom, but the broader structure remains a downtrend until the recent high at 0.70879 gives way.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70879, 0.7150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.70879 would break the lower-high sequence and open the path back toward 0.7150
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.6979 swing low
RBA decision + statement Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Two-month low at 0.6979 swept, recovering off the trough.
H4 carved a two-month low at 0.6979 on the hot US PPI print before the US-Iran de-escalation sparked a risk-on rebound that reclaimed the 0.7060 cap. The recovery has lifted price back through EMA20 while EMA50 overhead near 0.7090 still defines the broader down-leg. ATR remains contained, framing this as a correction within the prior downtrend rather than a confirmed reversal.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7100
What it said to watch
RBA statement Tue 04:30 UTC is the swing catalyst and could materially shift this read
sustained close above 0.7088 swing high opens the path toward 0.7100
failure to hold the 0.7060 retest re-exposes 0.7000 and the 0.6979 trough
Two-month low at 0.6979 reclaimed, price back above 0.7060 cap.
Multi-week downtrend carried AUDUSD from the 0.7174 area to a two-month trough at 0.6979, where demand stepped in and sparked a sharp rebound back above the 0.7060 cap — a move tied to the US-Iran de-escalation risk-on bid and softer US data. Price now holds 0.708 having reclaimed the short EMAs, but the higher swing pivots near 0.7088 and 0.7120 remain unbroken. ATR(14) near 17 pips reflects an active range rather than fresh trend expansion.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70879, 0.71197
What it said to watch
RBA rate decision + statement Tue 16 Jun 04:30 UTC — statement tone is the swing factor for the next bars
Sustained close above 0.7088 would confirm 0.6979 as the trough
Failure to hold 0.7060 on a retest reopens the 0.7000/0.6979 support zone
AUDUSD sold off from the 0.7200 area to a two-month low at 0.6979 as hot US PPI propped the dollar, then carved a quick double bottom and rebounded toward 0.7088 on the Iran de-escalation risk-on bid. Price now hovers near 0.7070, holding above EMA20 but still capped under EMA50, with the prior 0.7060 cap flipped to near-term support. The broader sequence of lower highs remains intact until 0.7088 gives way.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70879
What it said to watch
RBA statement Tue 04:30 UTC is the swing catalyst for this read
Sustained H4 close above 0.7088 would confirm 0.6979 as the trough
Failure to hold 0.7060 reopens the 0.7000 psych and 0.6979 trough
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 54 · price 0.70702
Lower highs into 0.6979 trough, rebound underway.
AUDUSD slid through the window to a two-month low near 0.6979, where buyers stepped in twice to carve a double bottom before the US-Iran de-escalation sparked a rebound toward 0.7088. Price has reclaimed the 0.7060 cap and now consolidates just above it, but sits below the EMA50 with the broader sequence of lower highs still intact. ATR remains elevated after the leg down, keeping the bounce reactive rather than structural.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.70879, 0.7120
What it said to watch
RBA statement Tue 04:30 UTC — dovish tone could pressure AUD back toward 0.7000/0.6979
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7088 opens the path back toward 0.7120
H4 carved a string of lower-lows into a 0.6979 trough before a double bottom formed on the back of the US-Iran risk bid, lifting price back through the 0.7060 50% fibo cap to a 0.7088 session high. Price now sits at 0.70699, above EMA20 but still capped under EMA50, so the broader downtrend frame remains intact pending a sustained reclaim of resistance. The 0.7060 pivot is the swing line — holding above it keeps the recovery alive.
Support: 0.7040, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.7088, 0.7184
What it said to watch
RBA decision + statement Tue 16 Jun 04:30 UTC is the key catalyst for this read
Sustained H4 close above 0.7088 opens the path back toward 0.7184
Failure to hold 0.7040 reopens the 0.6979 trough
FOMC Wed could materially shift the USD side of this pair
Lower highs into 0.6979 trough, near-term higher lows forming.
AUDUSD spent the window grinding lower into a 0.6979 two-month trough before a risk-on bounce — driven by the US-Iran peace bid and a softer USD — reclaimed the 0.7060 cap and tagged 0.7088. Price now sits above EMA20 but still below EMA50, leaving the broader downtrend intact with demand stepping in near the lows. The 0.7088/0.7100 band, aligned with the 50% retrace of the 0.72002-0.69787 leg, is the area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7100, 0.7184
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 0.7088/0.7100 confirms 0.6979 as the trough
Failure to hold 0.7060 reopens the grind toward 0.6979
RBA statement Tue 04:30 UTC — August-hike tone could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 59 · price 0.70814
Double bottom base near 0.6979, reclaiming 0.7060.
AUDUSD carved a double bottom near 0.6979 — the two-month low — and the latest impulse reclaimed the 0.7060 cap that held through the week, breaking the descending lower-high line. Momentum turned up on the risk-on rebound tied to Mideast de-escalation, with price now back above EMA20. ATR sits moderate; the structural test is whether 0.7060 now holds as support into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088
What it said to watch
RBA statement Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Sustained H4 close back below 0.7060 reopens the 0.7000/0.6979 base
Failure to clear the 0.7088 session high keeps the bounce capped
AUDUSD carved a two-month low near 0.6979 then rebounded on Mideast de-escalation risk-on, reclaiming the 0.7060 cap that had been capping the bounce. Price now trades into the 0.7088 recent high while still sitting below the H4 EMA50, leaving the recovery unconfirmed against the broader downtrend. The RBA statement Tuesday is the dominant catalyst for the next leg.
Support: 0.7060, 0.70156, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.71315
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 0.7088 opens the path back to the 0.71315 swing high
Failure to hold the reclaimed 0.7060 cap reopens 0.70156 and the 0.6979 cycle low
RBA decision + statement Tue 16 Jun could materially shift this read — guidance is the catalyst
Lower lows into 0.6979, rebound testing prior cap.
AUDUSD trended lower through the window, printing a two-month trough at 0.6979 before a sharp risk-on rebound on Mideast de-escalation; the latest bar pushed through the 0.7060 prior cap to close at 0.70763. The 0.6979/0.7000 area held as a double-bottom base, but price still sits below the EMA50 and beneath the 0.7180 swing high. The RBA hold is fully priced — the statement tone Tuesday is the asymmetry into this corrective bounce.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7180
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 bar high extends the rebound toward 0.7180 swing high
Failure to hold 0.7060 prior cap puts 0.7000 psych and the 0.6979 trough back in focus
RBA decision/statement Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, rebound off lows · RSI 57 · price 0.70763
Recovered from 0.6979 trough, probing prior cap.
Price carved a double bottom near 0.6979 and rallied through the 0.7060 prior cap on the last bar, closing at 0.70763 after Mideast de-escalation lifted risk. The recovery has reclaimed the EMA20 and is pressing into the 50% retrace of the 0.7200-0.6979 leg, but the broader sequence of lower highs from 0.7200 keeps the structure heavy. Session high at 0.7088 is the immediate cap, with 0.71156 (61.8% fib) above.
Support: 0.7060, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70879, 0.71156
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.70879 opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 0.71156
Failure to hold 0.7060 reopens the 0.7000 psych and 0.6979 trough
RBA decision + statement Tue 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read