Downtrend intact since the early-month top near 0.7200, printing successive lower highs and lower lows as the RBA pause and soft China prints reasserted AUD weakness. Price based around the 0.6978-0.7000 zone, bounced, and is now consolidating in a 0.7045-0.7090 band below the EMA50; the recovery off the low left a mild bullish RSI divergence. The Fed decision later this week is the dominant near-term driver with AUD a passenger.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7140 (50-dma) negates the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 0.7000 round number confirms a fresh lower low toward 0.6890
FOMC rate decision in <24h could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has trended lower since the 0.7200 print in early-month, carving lower highs and lower lows down to a double base near 0.6980 as the faded RBA hold and soft China data reasserted the downside. The recent recovery stalled at 0.7088 and price is now hovering at the 38.2% retracement of the 0.7200-0.6979 leg; EMA20 sits below EMA50, keeping the broader structure bearish despite the bounce.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7140
What it said to watch
FOMC decision this week (Warsh's first) is the defining USD catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7140 negates the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the path toward the 0.6890 area
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows intact since the early-month break, but price has based above the 0.6979 swing low and recovered toward 0.7088, stalling near the 61.8% retrace of the prior selloff. The bounce fits the AUD context — heavy after a hawkish-hold the market faded plus soft China data, with the 0.7100 zone repeatedly capping rallies. ATR is compressed near 20 pips, with price coiling between the 0.7040 floor and the 0.7088 cap into the Wednesday Fed decision.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7100, 0.7143
What it said to watch
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7100 invalidates the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.6979 swing low and BBH undershoot path
AUDUSD sold from 0.7200 to a 0.6979 low through the week as soft China data and a faded RBA hawkish-hold weighed; price has since bounced and is consolidating in a 0.7040-0.7088 band below the well-worn 0.7100 cap. ATR is easing as the pair coils ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision, the dominant near-term driver. Demand has stepped in twice around 0.7000-0.7040, while supply continues to cap rallies near 0.7090.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7100, 0.7190
What it said to watch
FOMC Wednesday is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7100 invalidates the lower-highs structure
Failure to hold 0.7040 reopens the 0.7000 psych level and 0.6979 swing low
Downtrend from the early-Feb highs near 0.7200 stalled at a double bottom around 0.6979, with buyers stepping in twice; price has since recovered roughly 40% of that decline and is consolidating below the 0.7088 weekly high. The EMA50 is capping overhead while ATR has eased off the leg-lower spike. Soft China data and a hawkish-but-faded RBA kept AUD heavy into the Fed.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7130
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 weekly high opens path back toward 0.7130 swing high
Failure to hold 0.7040 range low reopens the 0.7000 psych and 0.6979 double btm
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant USD catalyst and could reshape this read
Lower highs since 0.7200, consolidating off 0.6979 low.
AUDUSD remains in a multi-week downtrend, carving lower highs since the early-month peak near 0.7200 and bottoming at 0.6979 on soft China data and an ignored RBA hold. Price has since bounced back above EMA20 and is consolidating between the 0.7040 range floor and the 0.7090 weekly high, stalling just under the EMA50 and the descending lower-highs line. ATR(14) near 21 pips reflects a contained range as the market awaits Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7090, 0.7180
What it said to watch
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant USD catalyst and can reset this range
H4 close above 0.7090 weekly high would break the lower-high structure
Failure to hold the 0.7040 range floor reopens the path toward 0.7000 psych and the 0.6979 swing low
Multi-week downtrend off the 0.7200 area carved a base around 0.6979, twice rejected, before a bounce lifted price to a 0.7088 high. The rebound — helped by the risk-on Hormuz theme — has stalled into the 0.7060 resistance with the RBA hold and weak China retail sales offering no fresh upside fuel. Price sits back above EMA20 but EMA50 caps overhead, leaving the broader bearish structure intact.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.7090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7090 weekly high would confirm 0.6979 as the trough
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych reopens the 0.6979 low
FOMC dot plot/SEP Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs into 0.6979 trough, corrective bounce.
AUDUSD has been carving lower highs since the 0.7200 peak, bottoming near 0.6979 before a corrective bounce stalled into the 0.7060 area — UOB's flagged resistance, capped also by softer China retail sales and an in-line RBA hold. Price now sits right at 0.7060 with EMA20 reclaimed but EMA50 still overhead, leaving the broader downtrend intact. ATR holding mid-range as the bounce probes the descending lower-high line.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6979
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.7090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7090 week high would invalidate the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych confirms a retest of the 0.6979 swing low
FOMC dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 53 · price 0.70612
Rolled over from 0.7200, bounced from 0.6979 swing low into consolidation.
AUDUSD rolled over from the 0.7200 high through early month, printing a 0.6979 swing low before a sharp recovery into a 0.7060-0.7088 consolidation. Price now sits below the H4 EMA50 but has reclaimed EMA20, with the rebound off the lows showing bullish RSI divergence. RBA's 4.35% hold is fully priced, leaving the presser the immediate swing factor for whether the recovery extends or fades back toward 0.7000.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.7088
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 week high extends the recovery off the lows
Failure to hold 0.7000 round number reopens the 0.6979 swing low
RBA press conference imminent — could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing after bounce · RSI 53 · price 0.70612
Double-bottom base off 0.6979, retracing the slide.
Price carved a double-bottom base around 0.6979 after the multi-week slide from 0.7200, and the recovery reclaimed 0.7050 and tagged the 0.7088 week high before easing back to 0.7061 — roughly the 38.2% retrace of that down-leg. RBA held at 4.35% as fully priced, leaving the presser as the swing factor. ATR is moderate with EMA20 reclaimed but price still capped below EMA50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.70878, 0.72002
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 week high extends the retrace higher
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych reopens the 0.6979 swing low
RBA press conference in ~40min is the primary intraday catalyst
Price sold off through June into a 0.6979 trough, where a double-bottom formed and buyers stepped in twice, driving a recovery that has reclaimed the EMA20 and EMA50. The pair is now compressing near 0.7070-0.7090, holding the upper half of the recent down-swing retracement after the US-Iran risk-on bid lifted AUD off the lows. Structure has flipped to higher lows, but the 0.6979 trough and the 0.7088 session high frame the range.
Support: 0.7044, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7088, 0.7180
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7088 opens the path back toward the 0.7180 prior high
Failure to hold 0.7044 swing low reopens the 0.7000 psych and 0.6979 trough
RBA rate decision at 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD carved a two-month trough at 0.6979 on the hot US PPI print, then rebounded toward 0.7090 as the US-Iran de-escalation flipped sentiment risk-on. Price is now consolidating in a 0.7065-0.7090 band, building a higher low off the trough while still capped beneath the broader downtrend's lower highs. ATR(14) near 18 pips shows compression after the sharp drop, with the bounce stalling under EMA50.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7090, 0.7180
What it said to watch
RBA rate decision/statement at 04:30 UTC is the dominant near-term risk for this read
Sustained H4 close above 0.7090 confirms 0.6979 as a trough and opens the prior high at 0.7180
Failure to hold 0.7040 reopens the 0.7000/0.6979 support zone