21:03 UTC
Downtrend, recent bounce · RSI 47 · price 0.70706
Lower highs and lower lows since the early-May top.
AUDUSD has carved a steady chain of lower highs and lower lows since the early-May top at 0.7277, with price trading below a falling EMA(50) for several weeks. The latest weekly cycle saw a flush to 0.6979 before a modest bounce back to 0.7070, after the RBA's faded hawkish hold and a soft China retail print reasserted the downtrend. Price remains capped well under the 0.7140 50-DMA, the level the market context flags as the line that must break to ease downside risk.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69787
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7185, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- A daily close above 0.7140 would negate the lower-highs sequence and ease downside risk
- Failure to hold 0.7000 confirms continuation of the lower-low pattern toward prior objectives
- FOMC (Warsh's first decision) Wed could materially shift the USD side of this read