Clear lower-high sequence since the 0.72374 pivot, with the hawkish Fed hike and upgraded dot plot forcing the impulsive 64-pip bar that printed the 0.70744 month low. The bounce off that low stalled at the 0.71384 prior high — the same area as a declining EMA50 near 0.7140 — and the last dozen bars have compressed into a 0.7103-0.7136 band with price under both EMA20 and EMA50, RSI mid-40s. ATR(14) near 18 pips is back at pre-Fed levels, so the post-event expansion has drained out of the range.
Support: 0.71034, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71384, 0.71663
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71384 prior high and the EMA50 band would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.71034 swing low on a closing basis re-exposes the 0.70744 month low
US flash PMIs Wed and Australian Employment Change Thu are the events most likely to end the current compression
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; basing above 0.7074.
H4 has printed a clean lower-high sequence from 0.7237, with the hawkish Fed hike driving the impulse leg that broke the 0.7108 swing low and extended to a 0.70744 week low. Price has since recovered into a tight 0.7085-0.7136 consolidation as hawkish RBA repricing offset the dollar bid, leaving spot pinned just above a flattening EMA20 but some 25 pips under the EMA50 at 0.7146, which still caps the structure. ATR(14) near 17.5 pips is inflated by the single Fed bar; the last eight bars have compressed well below that, so range energy is building rather than trending.
Support: 0.7108, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7136, 0.7146, 0.7185
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7136 prior high, then the 0.7146 ema50, would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7108 swing low and the 0.7100 round number re-exposes the 0.70744 week low
RBA Governor Bullock speech Tue 03:10 GMT and AU employment Thu 01:30 GMT are the catalysts capable of resolving this compression
Lower highs / lower lows since 0.72374, basing above 0.7105.
Clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 0.72374 peak three weeks ago, with the hawkish Fed hike and higher dot path driving the impulse leg that broke the 0.7120/0.7136 shelf and printed a month low at 0.70744. Price has since reclaimed the broken range and is pressing back into it at 0.71254, holding above a flattening EMA20 but still capped well under the EMA50 near 0.71550. ATR(14) near 17 pips is only modestly expanded, so the recovery so far looks corrective rather than impulsive, with the 0.71360 swing high the first genuine test.
Support: 0.7105, 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7136, 0.71475, 0.7155
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.71360, then 0.71475 prior high, would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.71050 bounce base re-exposes the 0.70744 month low and 0.70500 psych area
Failure to reclaim the EMA50 at 0.71550 keeps the downtrend structure intact
RBA Bullock speech Tue and AU employment data Thu are the next catalysts capable of resetting this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; price rebounding off month low.
A clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows has been in place since the 0.7237 top, with the EMA20 crossing below the EMA50 and price trading under the EMA50 for the whole back half of the window — the hawkish FOMC hike and firm US data did the work. The flush into 0.70744 marked the month low, and the last eight bars have carved shallow higher lows above the 0.7105 bounce lows, with the current bar reclaiming the EMA20 near 0.7120. ATR(14) around 17 pips is expanded versus the mid-window compression, so ranges are wider than the drift phase that preceded the break.
Support: 0.7120, 0.7105, 0.7074
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7165, 0.7200
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7140 swing high would break the lower-high sequence that has capped every bounce since 0.7237
Loss of the 0.7105 bounce lows re-exposes the 0.70744 month low and the 0.7050 area below it
Failure to hold the EMA20 near 0.7120 keeps the corrective read intact rather than a base
BoJ decision pre-London and Fed speakers today can shift this read via AUD/JPY carry positioning
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce inside it · RSI 43 · price 0.71155
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; corrective bounce off 0.7074.
H4 structure has been rolling over for two weeks: the 0.7237 swing high gave way to a sequence of lower highs at 0.7187 and 0.7166, and the multi-day 0.7120-0.7136 congestion floor broke hard on the post-FOMC hawkish-hike bar that spiked to 0.70744. Price has since recovered to 0.7115 on USD profit-taking but is still pinned under both EMA20 and EMA50, and the retest of the broken 0.7126 prior floor has so far held as resistance. ATR(14) near 18 pips is expanded versus the pre-break grind, so the impulsive leg is still the dominant feature rather than the bounce.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7126, 0.7140, 0.71871
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7126 prior floor would neutralise the range break read; 0.7140 is the cap above it
A close below the 0.7100 psych level re-opens the 0.70744 swing low
AU Employment Change on 24 Sep and the Bullock speech are the main scheduled risks to this structure
Reclaiming the 0.71871 prior high is what it would take to break the lower-highs sequence