21:06 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after impulse · RSI 43 · price 0.71089
Lower highs and lower lows; 0.71030-0.71384 range since the flush.
H4 has printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence down from the 0.72374 prior high, with the hawkish Fed hike and the US 10y back at 5% behind the impulse leg that ran to a swing low at 0.70744. Price has since rebuilt into a 0.71030-0.71384 range, holding just above the 0.7100 pivot but repeatedly capped beneath the range high and the descending lower-high line off 0.71663. ATR(14) near 18 pips marks post-impulse compression, with RSI around 43 and price beneath both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.7103, 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.71384, 0.71663, 0.72374
What it said to watch
- H4 close above 0.71384 range high would end the consolidation read and put the 0.71663 lower high back in play
- Failure to hold the 0.71030 range low confirms another lower low and exposes the 0.70744 swing low, then the 0.70500 round number
- RBA Bullock speech Tue 03:10 GMT and Australian labour data Thu 01:30 GMT are the main structural risks to this range
- US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could re-price the Dollar leg and break the compression either way