Lower highs have stacked since the 0.72374 peak — 0.71871, then the 0.71663 lower high — and the last dozen bars have compressed between the 0.7100 psych pivot and the 0.71398 two-day high after the 0.70744 window low was reclaimed. The hawkish Fed hike drove that flush lower, while Bullock's upside-inflation remarks fuelled the bounce back through 0.7100. ATR(14) near 15 pips sits well under the 64-pip expansion bar that made the low, and price is pinned just under EMA20 with EMA50 overhead — compression inside a still-lower-high structure.
Support: 0.71046, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71398, 0.71663, 0.71871
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71398 two-day high would break the lower-high sequence toward 0.71663
Loss of the 0.7100 psych pivot and the 0.71046 swing low re-opens the 0.70744 window low
RBA Gov Bullock Tue 03:10 UTC and Australian labour force Thu 01:30 UTC are the nearest catalysts to resolve the 0.7100-0.71398 compression
US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could re-price the USD leg of this range
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in a base · RSI 52 · price 0.71217
Sequence of lower highs since 0.72374, but flat lows since the 0.70744 spike low — compressing range.
AUDUSD is still carving lower highs — 0.72374, 0.71853, 0.71663 and now 0.71398 — after the hawkish Fed dot-plot repricing drove the flush to 0.70744, but the lows have gone flat and the last 18 bars are boxed between the 0.71040 range low and the 0.71400 range high. ATR(14) near 15 pips is compressed versus the impulse bars that produced the drop, and price is pinned around EMA20 with EMA50 up at roughly 0.7150 still capping. The latest bar tagged 0.71398 and closed back at 0.71217, a rejection that keeps the range intact rather than resolving it.
Support: 0.7104, 0.7088, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7150, 0.71663
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71400 range high would break the lower-high sequence and put the 0.71500 ema50 and 0.71663 lower high back in play
Loss of the 0.71040 range low re-opens 0.70880 prior high and the 0.70744 swing low
RBA Gov Bullock Tue 03:10 UTC and Australian labour force Thu 01:30 UTC are the events most capable of resolving this compression
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC — a clear miss or beat would drive the USD leg of the range
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, rebound testing the cap · RSI 62 · price 0.71366
Lower highs from 0.7237; base built above 0.7074.
Sequence of lower highs since the 0.7237 swing high remains intact, with the hawkish-FOMC repricing driving the impulse leg down to the 0.7074 swing low before Bullock's hawkish testimony sparked the rebound back through the 0.7100 pivot. Price has since compressed into a 0.7086-0.7139 shelf and is now pressing the 0.7140 cap, sitting above the EMA20 near 0.7121 but still beneath the H4 EMA50 around 0.7145 — a mixed cross state. ATR(14) near 18 pips is well down from the 64-pip drop bar, consistent with range compression rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.7121, 0.7100, 0.7074
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7168, 0.7185
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7140 cap would break the lower-high sequence and open 0.7168, then the 0.7185 swing high
Loss of the 0.7100 pivot re-exposes the 0.7074 swing low and confirms the downtrend leg is resuming
Bullock speech Tue 03:10 GMT and Australian labour force data Thu 01:30 GMT are the nearest catalysts that could resolve this compression
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in a base · RSI 60 · price 0.71364
Lower highs from 0.72374, short series of higher lows off 0.70744.
H4 has printed lower highs since the 0.72374 peak, with the hawkish FOMC leg driving the 0.72374 → 0.70744 impulse to a month low at 0.70744 before Bullock's hawkish testimony triggered the rebound. Price has since built a short series of higher lows and is consolidating in a tight band beneath the 0.7140 cap, with EMA20 reclaimed but EMA50 still overhead after the bearish ema cross. ATR(14) near 17 pips marks clear compression, with the 0.7100 psych pivot and the 0.71034 swing low framing the downside of the base.
Support: 0.71034, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.71663
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7140 cap would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the prior high at 0.71663
Failure to hold the 0.71034 swing low and the 0.7100 psych pivot re-opens the 0.70744 month low
RBA Bullock speech Tue 03:10 GMT and Thursday's Australian labour force data are the nearest catalysts that could resolve this compression
Lower highs from 0.7237, base building above 0.7075.
H4 structure has been a clean sequence of lower highs since the 0.7237 peak, with the decline terminating in the 0.7074 swing low before Bullock's hawkish parliamentary remarks drove the recovery leg. Price has since spent roughly fifteen bars compressing between the 0.7103 range low and the 0.7136 cap, with rejection each time the upper edge is tested and ATR(14) near 17 pips — well off the 64-pip flush bar. Price sits back above EMA20 but the EMA50 near 0.7148 still slopes lower and caps the rebound, leaving the broader downtrend intact until that band is reclaimed.
Support: 0.71034, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71364, 0.7148, 0.71562
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7136 cap and through ema50 at 0.7148 would break the lower-high sequence and put the 0.7156 prior high back in play
Sustained trade below the 0.7103 range low and the 0.7100 psych pivot reopens the 0.7074 swing low
RBA Governor Bullock Tue 03:10 GMT and Australian Employment Change Thu 01:30 GMT are the nearest catalysts capable of resolving the compression
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC — a firm print keeps the 0.7136 cap relevant regardless of RBA pricing
Lower highs since 0.72374; base carved above 0.7074.
The H4 sequence has been one of lower highs since the 0.72374 peak, with the hawkish Fed hike and the move back to 5% US 10-year yields driving the impulse leg down to a swing low at 0.70744. Since that low, price has compressed into a tight 0.71034–0.71384 consolidation, with ATR(14) back near 16 pips and RSI flat around the midline — price has reclaimed EMA20 but remains beneath a still-declining EMA50. Demand has stepped in twice near the recent low at 0.71034 while supply keeps capping attempts into the 0.71384 swing high.
Support: 0.71034, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71384, 0.71504, 0.7185
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71384 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence and expose 0.71504 prior high
Failure to hold 0.71034 recent low re-opens the 0.70744 swing low and confirms trend continuation
RBA Gov. Bullock speech (Tue 03:10 GMT) and Australian labour force data Thursday could materially shift this consolidation read
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the main external input while price sits under EMA50
Lower highs from 0.7237 into a two-week base; 0.7074–0.7138 range since the flush.
H4 structure has been a sequence of lower highs since the 0.72374 peak, with two impulsive down-legs — the break under 0.7160 and then the flush to 0.70744 that followed the hawkish Fed hike and the move back to 5% in US 10s. Price has since built a shallow base, reclaiming 0.7100 after Bullock's hawkish inflation remarks, and now trades in a 0.7074–0.71384 range with rising lows off the swing low. ATR(14) near 19 pips is compressing versus the 64-pip flush bar, and price is pinned between EMA20 just below spot and EMA50 near 0.7135, which caps the rebound.
Support: 0.71034, 0.70744, 0.7086
Resistance: 0.71384, 0.7165, 0.71871
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71384 range high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 0.71650 prior low
Loss of the 0.71034 range low re-opens the 0.70744 swing low and confirms trend continuation
RBA Gov Bullock speech Tue 03:10 GMT and Thursday's Australian labour force report are the near-term structural risks to this range read
EMA50 around 0.7135 has capped every rebound attempt in the base — acceptance above it changes the compression read