21:06 UTC
Uptrend since late June, momentum stalling · RSI 45 · price 0.71089
Higher-low chain intact, but lower highs since the 0.7237 sept high.
The dominant move remains the recovery off the late-June base at 0.6865, a three-month sequence of higher lows that peaked at the 0.7237 sept high in the second week of September. That peak was rejected and the hawkish Fed hike mid-week drove a four-session slide to the 0.7075 sept low before price reclaimed 0.7100 on Thursday-Friday as the RBA's hawkish rhetoric offset the dollar; the market now sits just above a flattening ema50 with RSI mid-range at 45 and a chain of lower highs capping the last two weeks. Structure is transitional rather than trending: the 0.7140 range cap and the 0.7170 swing high define the upper boundary, 0.7075 and the 0.7050 psych level the lower one.
Support: 0.7092, 0.7075, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7140, 0.7170, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 0.7075 sept low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.7050 psych level
- A close above the 0.7140 range cap breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7170 swing high
- Loss of the ema50 on a closing basis would end the higher-low chain built since the late-June base
- RBA Bullock speech Tue 03:10 GMT and Australian labour data Thu 24 Sep are the events most likely to reshape this weekly read
- US flash PMIs Wed could re-tighten the dollar leg and pressure the reclaimed 0.7100 area