21:05 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a range, lower highs intact · RSI 43 · price 0.6943
Lower highs from 0.7140; 0.6900-0.7000 range with a false break below the range low.
The slide from 0.7140 has flattened into a 0.6900-0.7000 range over the past two weeks, with lower highs still in place. The push to the 0.7013 swing high was rejected after the hot US CPI print, and Thursday's AU jobs miss drove a false break to 0.6894 below the range low before buyers reclaimed 0.6900. The rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.6967, and price now sits below both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50 and ATR(14) near 22 pips: a mid-range regime rather than compression.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7013, 0.7045
What it said to watch
- H4 close below the 0.6900 range low would confirm a lower low and a range break
- Close above the 61.8% fib at 0.6967 reopens the 0.7000 handle and the 0.7013 swing high
- Failure to hold the 0.6930 prior low puts the range low back in focus
- Prior high at 0.7045 caps the lower-high line; only a break there undoes the downtrend structure
- US housing data Tue and AU flash PMIs Oct 22 could shift the read; late-October FOMC hike odds (~42%) remain the larger risk