21:05 UTC
Downtrend from September high, basing in a range · RSI 45 · price 0.69829
Lower highs since Sep 9; three-week range 0.6894–0.7015 below a rolling EMA(50).
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since the 0.7237 sep high, and the late-September breakdown left price below a now-falling EMA(50) near 0.7023. Since Oct 1 it has held a range between the 0.6894 range low and the 0.7015 range top. Last week's jobs miss pushed price through 0.6900 before it closed back inside, and Kent's hawkish comments plus a China GDP beat have lifted it back toward the range top, where the 38.2% retracement of the Sep-Oct decline and EMA(50) sit together.
Support: 0.6894, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.7140, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 0.7015 range top and EMA(50) near 0.7023 would clear the 38.2% retracement and open the 50% level at 0.7066
- Recovery through the 0.7140 lower high would end the lower-high sequence from the 0.7237 sep high
- A daily close below the 0.6894 range low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6865 july low
- AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC), Bullock (Fri 10:00 UTC) and US flash PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) could decide whether the range top breaks or caps again
- FOMC next week could materially shift this read