Higher lows since Monday gap-up; breakout above round number.
Higher lows have stacked since Monday's gap-up open at 0.6964, and Tuesday's NY session drove the break through 0.7000 to a week high at 0.7017 as USD softened on US-Iran deal hopes and weak US housing data. The pullback found the 0.6995 NY low just under the round number and EMA(20), and price has since re-based above 0.7000 into the Asia session with RSI(14) near 64, short of overbought. The move has fully retraced the Oct 15-20 leg that started at the 0.6894 low printed after the Australian jobs miss.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69947, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.6995 ny low and the round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6970 tue low, near 38.2% of the Oct 15-20 leg, breaks the rising lows sequence
H1 close above the 0.7017 week high extends the breakout beyond the 0.7015 range top cited in house views
AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) and RBA Governor Bullock (Fri 10:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu and S&P flash PMIs Fri are the USD-side risk to the hold above 0.7000
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday; consolidating just above 0.7000 below the week high.
AUDUSD has printed a series of higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low, which came after the AU jobs miss and the hot US PPI. The pair gapped higher at Monday's open and reached a 0.7017 week high in today's NY session as soft US housing data and US-Iran deal hopes weighed on the USD. The pullback from the week high found the 0.7000 round number, and price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 60. Tuesday's Asia-session dip held at 0.6970, the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Tuesday impulse, keeping the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7017 week high extends the higher-high sequence; rejection there keeps price consolidating below it
H1 close back below the 0.6982 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the sequence of higher lows
Loss of the 0.6970 38.2% fib exposes Monday's gap zone near 0.6950
AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and RBA's Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the USD-side risk to the 0.7000 hold
Higher lows since Thursday's low; breakout above 0.7000 holding.
The week opened with a gap up to 0.6964 from Friday's 0.6943 close after Kent's hawkish RBA remarks and the China GDP beat. Price has printed higher lows along a trendline from Thursday's post-jobs low at 0.6894, and the push through 0.7000 came in Tuesday's NY session as USD eased on US-Iran headlines and soft housing data. The move tagged a week high at 0.7017 before settling into a tight consolidation just above the round number, with a rising EMA(20) near 0.6994 underneath, RSI(14) cooled to ~58 and ATR(14) contracting to ~9 pips.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6994, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.7000 round number and the ema20 near 0.6994 would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the Tuesday low at 0.6970, where the higher-low trendline and 38.2% of the impulse fib converge, breaks the week's higher-low sequence
A close above the 0.7017 week high clears the 0.7015 cap flagged in the market digest
AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC), US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) and US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; post-breakout pause under 0.7017.
Thursday's NY-session slide after the AU jobs miss bottomed at 0.6894. Since then the pair has printed a sequence of higher lows at 0.6936, 0.6970 and 0.6982 along a rising trendline, helped by Monday's gap higher at the open after Kent's hawkish remarks and China's GDP beat. Tuesday's NY session carried price through 0.7000 to a week high of 0.7017 on soft US housing data and Iran-deal hopes. Price is now holding just above 0.7000 and the ema20 near 0.6995, with RSI(14) easing to about 62 from the breakout push.
Support: 0.6995, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 0.6995 returns price inside the pre-breakout range
Break of the higher-low trendline near 0.6982 ends the sequence of higher lows
Loss of the tuesday low at 0.6970, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, opens the 50% retracement near 0.6955
Acceptance above the 0.7017 week high clears the 0.7015 range top cited in market commentary
US-Iran headlines and US yields are the main USD-side swing factors before Thursday's claims, the AU flash PMIs and Bullock's speech
Higher highs and higher lows since Friday's 0.6936 low; pullback holding above 0.7000.
The 0.6894 low came during Thursday's NY session after the AU jobs miss. Since Friday's 0.6936 low the pair has printed higher highs and higher lows, and the week opened with a gap above Friday's close after Kent's hawkish remarks and the China GDP beat. Tuesday's NY session drove the break through 0.7000 to a 0.7017 week high as the USD slipped on soft housing data and US-Iran headlines. The pullback found demand at 0.6995 near the EMA(20), and RSI(14) has cooled to the low 60s.
Support: 0.6995, 0.6982, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7017
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 0.6995 (ema20) would leave the 0.7000 breakout exposed as a false break
Loss of the 0.6982 higher low and the rising lows trendline (~0.6984) would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 0.6970 LPR dip
A sustained close above the 0.7017 week high extends the breakout into territory not traded this week
AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC), plus US flash PMIs and Bullock on Friday, could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, testing 0.7000 after new week high · RSI 61 · price 0.70023
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; Monday gap above Friday close unfilled.
The post-jobs swing has retraced Thursday's slide to 0.6894. Monday's open gapped above Friday's 0.6943 close and has stayed above the 0.6964 weekly open since. Tuesday's Asia dip to 0.6970 after the PBoC hold set a higher low, and the 0.6983 higher low in London followed. The NY session then broke through the 0.7000 round number to a 0.7017 week high on weak US housing data and US-Iran deal headlines. Price has eased back but holds above the round number and the ema20 near 0.6994, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61. The week high sits against the 0.7015 cap flagged in the macro digest.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6994, 0.69825
Resistance: 0.70169
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.7000 round number and ema20 near 0.6994 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.6983 higher low breaks the rising higher lows line and the week's sequence
H1 close above the 0.7017 week high clears the 0.7015 cap
Conflicting US-Iran deal headlines are live risk; a denial could quickly reverse the USD-driven leg
Higher lows since Thursday's low, NY spike above 0.7000 faded.
Since Thursday's 0.6894 low after the AU jobs miss and hot US PPI, AUDUSD has printed a clean higher-low sequence. Monday opened with a gap up on the China GDP beat and Kent's comments. A soft USD on weak US housing data and US-Iran hopes carried price through the 0.7000 round number to a 0.7017 week high during NY hours today. That spike met rejection near the 0.7015 area, and price is back just under 0.7000, holding above the ema20 near 0.6992 with RSI(14) easing to the high-50s.
Support: 0.6992, 0.6983, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7017
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7017 week high invalidates the rejection read and extends the higher-high sequence
Break of 0.6983 london low and the rising higher-lows line opens 0.6970 asia low and the 38.2% of the Thu-Tue impulse near 0.6970
Repeated H1 closes below 0.7000 round number keep the NY break a single-session excursion
AU flash PMIs Oct 22 22:00 UTC and US claims/PMIs later in the week could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Uptrend, testing range top · RSI 63 · price 0.70029
Higher lows since Monday's open, rejected just above 0.7015.
The week opened at 0.6964, gapping above Friday's 0.6943 close after China's Q3 GDP beat, and has printed higher lows above EMA(20) since Monday's London session. The dominant leg came in today's NY session on soft US housing data, lifting price through the 0.7000 round number to a 0.7017 week high before a rejection back under the 0.7015 range top. RSI(14) sits near 63, short of overbought, and the 38.2% retracement of the move from Thursday's jobs-driven low lines up with the 0.6970 Tuesday low.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6983, 0.6970
Resistance: 0.7017
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7017 week high would clear the 0.7015 range top
Failure to hold the 0.7000 round number and the 0.6983 swing low exposes the 0.6970 Tuesday low / 38.2% fib
A break of rising support from Monday's low (near 0.6981) would shift the read from uptrend to range
AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC, US PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and RBA's Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 68 · price 0.70081
Higher lows since Thursday's low, testing 0.7015.
AUD/USD has built a run of higher lows since Thursday's post-jobs low at 0.6894. Monday opened with a gap higher on the China GDP beat, and Tuesday's NY session pushed price to 0.7017 as soft US housing data and lower yields weighed on USD. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 68, but the wick through the 0.7015 range top was faded back toward the 0.7000 psych level. Pullbacks this week have held the higher lows trendline, and the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Tuesday impulse sits at the 0.6970 Tue low.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69825, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.7015
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes above the 0.7015 range top would break the 3-week range
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych opens a retest of the 0.6983 swing low
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.6970 Tue low would undercut this week's sequence
AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC, then Bullock and US PMIs Fri, could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.7000 · RSI 66 · price 0.69994
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low.
Price has made a steady run of higher lows since Thursday's jobs-miss low at 0.6894. The week opened at 0.6964 and has stayed above it, with China's GDP beat and a softer USD lifting the pair through Monday's London-NY transition. Tuesday's London low at 0.6983 held above EMA(20) before the NY open drive printed a week high at 0.7001, with RSI(14) firm in the mid-60s but not yet overbought.
Support: 0.69825, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.7001, 0.7015
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7015 range cap challenges the three-week range
Failure to hold the 0.6970 Asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline from Thursday
AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC, US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Stalling under the 0.7001 week high with RSI(14) rolling over would mark the 0.7000 handle as a rejection
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 57 · price 0.69899
Higher lows since Thursday's low, compressing under 0.7000.
AUDUSD has fully retraced Thursday's jobs-report slide from the 0.6894 low. It gapped higher at the week open of 0.6964 and has built higher lows through Monday and Tuesday on hawkish RBA commentary, China's GDP beat and a softer USD. Tuesday's push into the London open set a week high at 0.6998, just shy of the 0.7000 range top. The London low at 0.6983 held, price sits above EMA(20), RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s, and the Tuesday low at 0.6970 from the PBoC dip aligns with the 23.6% fib of the rally.
Support: 0.69825, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top would end the three-week range and extend the uptrend
Loss of the 0.6983 london low turns focus to the tuesday low at 0.6970 and the higher lows trendline
Break below 0.6970 and the week open at 0.6964 would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 38.2% fib near 0.6958
AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and Bullock's speech Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read at the range top
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; pullback testing ema20.
Since Thursday's jobs-shock low at 0.6894, AUDUSD has rebuilt a run of higher lows. The week opened with a gap up to the weekly open at 0.6964 after Kent's hawkish remarks, and the China Q3 GDP beat and softer USD added to the move. The push into the London open set a week high at 0.6998 and stopped just short of the 0.7000 range top. The pullback since is sitting on EMA(20) near 0.6984, still above the Monday high at 0.6993's predecessor 0.6992 zone, with RSI(14) easing to ~56 from the London-open spike.
Support: 0.69842, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top ends the three-week 0.6900–0.7000 range read
Sustained trade below ema20 at 0.6984 turns the pullback toward the 0.6970 asia low
Break of the 0.6970 asia low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.6964 weekly open back in play
Repeated failure at the 0.6998 week high and Monday high at 0.6993 builds a cap under 0.7000
US housing data at 12:30 UTC today, AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday's post-jobs low, capped under range top.
The post-jobs rally from Thursday's 0.6894 low has built a higher-low sequence. The week opened with a gap up at 0.6964, Monday's NY session high came at 0.6993, and London lifted price to a 0.6998 week high today on the China GDP beat and a softer USD. That push met rejection just shy of the 0.7000 range top. Price is now easing back onto EMA(20) near 0.6984 with RSI(14) around 57, while today's Asian low at 0.6970 marks the last higher low.
Support: 0.69844, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.69983, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top ends the three-week range read; repeated rejection there keeps it intact
Holding EMA(20) near 0.6984 keeps pullbacks shallow; slipping back below the Monday high at 0.6993 reflects fading momentum
Failure to hold the 0.6970 Asian low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the weekly open at 0.6964
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today could shift USD tone mid-NY session
AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) and the Bullock speech (Fri 10:00 UTC) are the main risks to a 0.7000 test
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 60 · price 0.69905
Higher lows since Sunday open; shallow pullback below 0.7000.
The recovery from last Thursday's jobs-driven low at 0.6894 has carried AUD/USD above the weekly open at 0.6964. Higher lows have printed in each session since Sunday's open, helped by China's Q3 GDP beat and a soft USD, and the Tuesday Asian session dip to 0.6970 after the unchanged PBoC LPRs held. London lifted price to a week high at 0.6998 this morning, and supply showed up just shy of the 0.7000 range top. The pullback is so far holding near the H1 EMA(20) at 0.6985, with RSI(14) easing back to around 60.
Support: 0.6985, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69983, 0.7000, 0.70121
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top exposes last Wednesday's high at 0.7012 and would end the range-cap read
Sustained trade back below EMA(20) at 0.6985 shifts the pullback from shallow to corrective
Failure to hold the 0.6970 Asia low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 0.6964 weekly open back in play
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today could jolt USD into the NY session
AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) and RBA Governor Bullock (Fri 10:00 UTC) are the main AUD-side risks to this read
Higher lows since Thursday's post-jobs low; Monday high cleared at London open.
The rebound from Thursday's jobs-miss low at 0.6894 has printed higher lows every session since, helped by the China GDP beat, Kent's hawkish remarks and soft USD. London open today cleared Monday's 0.6993 high and stalled just under the 0.7000 psych level. Price holds above the ema20 with the Tue low at 0.6970 (the LPR dip) as the latest higher low, and RSI(14) sits in the high 60s without divergence.
Support: 0.6986, 0.6970, 0.6964
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7000 psych and the Wed high at 0.7013 extends the uptrend into last week's pre-jobs range
Break below the Tue low at 0.6970 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the weekly open at 0.6964
Repeated rejection at 0.7000 with RSI rolling under 60 would flag a stall below the range top
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC today and AU flash PMIs on Oct 22 could shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 0.69961
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; stalling at the week high under 0.7000.
AUD/USD has printed higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 jobs-driven low. It gapped higher at the weekly open and pushed through the 0.6992 Monday high late in the Asia session today, helped by China's GDP beat, Kent's hawkish remarks and a softer USD. The brief LPR dip to the 0.6970 Asia low held above rising support, and price now sits above EMA(20) near 0.6984 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, stalling at the 0.6997 week high just under the 0.7000 psych level.
Support: 0.69925, 0.6984, 0.69704
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.7000 psych level clears the week high and exposes the 0.7013 prior high from last Wednesday.
A move back below the Monday high and EMA(20) near 0.6984 would put the push to the week high in question.
Loss of the 0.6970 Asia low breaks the rising support sequence; the recovery fib 38.2% near 0.6958 then comes into view.
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours.
AU flash PMIs on Oct 22 at 22:00 UTC are the next AUD-specific test of the 0.7000 range top.
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 65 · price 0.69934
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; week high 0.6997 just under 0.7000.
AUDUSD has carved higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low after the -39.3K jobs miss. A soft USD and China's Q3 GDP beat extended the rally through a weekend gap above the 0.6964 weekly open. Monday's NY-hours peak at 0.6992 (monday high) gave way to a shallow pullback that held the higher-low line, and the Asia low at 0.6970 stayed above Monday's dip. A move into the London open printed a 0.6997 week high just shy of the 0.7000 psych level, with price holding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) in the mid-60s, not yet overbought.
Support: 0.69925, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69972, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7000 psych and the 0.7013 prior high from last Wednesday would extend the higher-high sequence beyond the range top
Rejection at the week high/psych zone and a drop back below the 0.6992 monday high would signal stalling at the range top
Break below the 0.6970 asia low and the higher-low line would end the sequence and expose the weekly open at 0.6964 and the 38.2% retracement near 0.6958
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today could move the USD side within the NY session
AU flash PMIs (Oct 22, 22:00 UTC) and Bullock (Oct 23) are the next AUD-specific risks for a test of 0.7000
Higher lows since 0.6894; compressing under week high.
AUDUSD has printed higher lows since Thursday's post-jobs low at 0.6894. Monday's gap-up open followed the China GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks, and the move extended to a 0.6993 week high during NY hours. Tuesday's Asia session dip to the 0.6970 asian low came after the PBOC left LPRs unchanged and held at EMA(50) and the 23.6% retracement. Price is now compressing around EMA(20) near 0.6980 with RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s, and supply is capping just below the 0.7000 range top.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69704, 0.69501
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6993 week high exposes the 0.7000 range top and the 0.7013 prior high from last Wednesday
Failure to hold the 0.6970 asian low and EMA(50) breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 0.6950 weekly low and Monday's unfilled gap
US housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) and pending home sales (14:00 UTC) today could shift the USD side of the read
AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC are the next tests of the 0.7000 cap
Higher lows since Thursday's low, tight range under week high.
AUD/USD has retraced the whole post-jobs-miss slide from Thursday's sub-0.6900 low. Monday opened with a weekend gap up on China's GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks, and the week high printed at 0.69925 early in Monday's NY session. Price has since compressed between 0.6970 and 0.6993. The Asia-session dip on unchanged PBOC LPRs held at the Tuesday low near the 23.6% retracement, and price is back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 55, off Monday's highs.
Support: 0.6979, 0.69704, 0.6943
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.69925 week high puts the 0.7000 range top in play; a rejection there keeps the consolidation intact
Failure to hold the 0.6970 Tuesday low breaks the rising support from Thursday and exposes the 0.6943 gap fill
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today, AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday's low; Monday high caps a tight range under psych 0.70.
Thursday's AU jobs miss drove the slide from the 0.7013 prior high to 0.6894 into the NY session, and price has since built higher lows, gapping up at the weekly open of 0.6964 on the China GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks. Monday's London push stalled at the 0.69925 Monday high, near the 78.6% retracement of the jobs-drop leg and just under psych 0.70. The Tuesday Asia dip to 0.6970 after unchanged PBOC LPRs recovered back above EMA(20) at ~0.6981, with RSI(14) holding mid-50s.
Support: 0.6981, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above psych 0.70 breaks the Monday high cap and opens the 0.7013 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6970 asia low and the higher-low trendline would break the recovery structure, exposing the 0.6964 weekly open
Repeated closes below EMA(20) at ~0.6981 would signal the consolidation is turning lower
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30Z today, AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45Z could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday low, capped under Monday high.
Thursday's Asia-session jobs miss and hot US data in NY hours drove the pair from the Wed high at 0.7013 to 0.6894. Since then it has printed a run of higher lows, opened the week with a gap up on China's GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks, and reached the Monday high at 0.6992 in the first hour of NY. Tuesday's Asia dip after the unchanged PBOC LPRs found demand at the 0.6970 asia low, near the 23.6% Thursday–Monday retracement. Price is now back above the ema20 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, holding just under the 0.7000 psych range top.
Support: 0.6981, 0.69704, 0.69501
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6992 monday high and 0.7000 psych would put the 0.7013 wed high and the range top in play
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.6970 asia low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 0.6950 monday low
US Housing Starts/Permits 12:30Z today, AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00Z and US flash PMIs Fri 13:45Z could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; tight range under week high.
AUDUSD has rebuilt from Thursday's 0.6894 post-jobs-miss low, gapping up to a 0.6964 week open as China's Q3 GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks lifted AUD into Monday's NY-session week high at 0.6993. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6970–0.6990 band hugging ema20, with RSI(14) back near 50 and today's Asia low at 0.6970 sitting on the higher-low line. Supply is capping the approach to the 0.7000 psych level, with last Wednesday's prior high at 0.7013 above.
Support: 0.69773, 0.69704, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6993 week high and 0.7000 psych would resume the rally from the jobs low toward the 0.7013 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6970 Asia low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.6964 week open
Sustained trade below ema20 with RSI under 45 would shift the read from consolidation to a deeper pullback
US housing data at 12:30 UTC today could test the range; AU PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) and Bullock (Fri 10:00 UTC) are the larger risks to this read
US Flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could materially shift USD-side direction
Higher lows since 0.6894; compressing under Monday high with lower highs.
AUDUSD has recovered most of Thursday's slide to 0.6894, which started with the AU jobs miss in the Asia session and extended into NY hours. The pair gapped higher at Monday's open and reached the 0.6992 Monday high in the NY session, helped by the China GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks. Since that peak it has printed lower highs and is compressing around EMA(20) near 0.6977. That pullback is only about 16% of the Thu–Mon recovery, RSI(14) is back in the mid-50s, and the weekly open plus the unfilled gap to Friday's prior close sit below.
Support: 0.69739, 0.69643, 0.6943
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6992 monday high, clearing the lower highs, opens a test of the 0.7000 range top
Acceptance above 0.7000 brings the 0.7013 prior high into view and challenges the three-week range read
Break of the 0.6974 pullback low exposes the 0.6964 weekly open and a gap fill toward the 0.6943 prior close
US housing data at 12:30 UTC today, AU flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and US PMIs Fri could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; tight consolidation below week high.
AUD has carved higher lows from Thursday's jobs-driven trough at 0.6894, through Friday's NY low at 0.6936, then gapped to a 0.6964 week open as the China Q3 GDP beat lifted Monday's London session to a 0.6993 week high. The NY pullback held a swing low at 0.6974, and price has since compressed in a 6-pip Asian range just above EMA(20) near 0.6980, with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s. The 0.7000 round number and Wednesday's 0.7013 prior high sit directly overhead as the top of the broader range.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69739, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6993 week high puts the 0.7000 round number and 0.7013 prior high in play
Failure to hold the 0.6974 swing low exposes the 0.6964 week open and the 38.2% fib near 0.6955
A break of the higher-low trendline from Thursday's low would end the recovery structure
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 0.6980 would mark the consolidation turning into a deeper pullback
US housing starts and permits during Tuesday's NY session could shift the USD side of the read