Higher lows since Thursday; tight range below 0.7000.
Thursday's jobs miss drove AUDUSD from the 0.70126 Wed high to 0.6894. Price has since printed higher lows at the 0.6936 Friday low and the 0.6964 weekly open. Monday's hawkish Kent remarks and the China GDP beat carried the pair through Asia and London to the 0.6993 Monday high, about 72% back through the Wed-Thu drop. That high was rejected into the NY open. Since the 0.6974 NY pullback, price has compressed around 0.6979 just above EMA(20), with RSI(14) parked near the mid-50s and ATR shrinking.
Support: 0.69739, 0.69643, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6993 Monday high and 0.7000 psych would clear the Wed-Thu drop's 78.6% and expose the 0.7013 Wed high
Loss of the 0.6974 NY pullback low and the Monday higher lows trendline would return focus to the 0.6964 weekly open
Break below the 0.6936 Friday low would undo the higher-low sequence since Thursday
AU flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) and the Bullock speech (Fri 10:00 UTC) could materially shift RBA pricing and this read
US S&P PMIs (Fri 13:45 UTC) and AI-equity swings driving USD could shift this read
22:03 UTC
Recovery leg, stalling below range top · RSI 56 · price 0.69795
Higher lows since weekly open, capped under 0.7000.
AUD/USD has retraced most of the 119-pip Wednesday–Thursday sell-off from the 0.7013 week high, a leg extended to 0.6894 by Thursday's AU jobs miss. The pair gapped higher at the 0.6964 weekly open and built higher lows through Monday on the China GDP beat and hawkish RBA Kent remarks. The first-hour-of-NY push stalled at the 0.6993 Monday high just under the 0.7000 range top. The pullback is holding the 0.6974 swing low on the higher-lows trendline, with price just above EMA(20) near 0.6976 and RSI(14) around 56.
Support: 0.69739, 0.69643, 0.69501
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top, then the 0.7013 week high, exits the three-week 0.6900–0.7000 range
Break of the 0.6974 swing low and higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.6964 weekly open, near the 61.8% sell-off fib
Loss of the 0.6950 prior low fully closes the weekend gap and revives the sell-off structure
Flash PMIs (Thu 22:00 UTC) and RBA Governor Bullock (Fri 10:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; Monday gap-up holding, pullback to EMA(20).
AUD extended its recovery from Thursday's jobs-led 0.6894 low. The week opened with a gap up to the 0.6964 weekly open from Friday's 0.6943 close, as Kent's hawkish remarks and the China GDP beat added support. The advance printed a 0.6993 monday high in the NY session, just shy of the 0.7000 range top, and price has since drifted back to EMA(20) near 0.6976, with RSI(14) easing from the upper 60s to the mid-50s. The 0.6950 monday low lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the recovery and sits above the recovery trendline.
Support: 0.6976, 0.69643, 0.69501
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top exits the 0.6900–0.7000 range and brings the 0.7013 wed high into view
Failure to hold ema20 and the 0.6964 weekly open leaves the 0.6950 monday low and recovery trendline as the next test of the higher-low sequence
A break of the 0.6950 monday low fills Monday's gap and breaks the recovery read
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC, flash PMIs Thu 22:00 UTC and Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC could shift the 0.7000 test
Higher lows since Monday's gap open, capped below 0.7000.
Monday's session opened with a ~21-pip gap above the 0.6943 friday close. Hawkish RBA Kent remarks, the China GDP beat and a softer USD extended the move through London to a 0.6992 monday high into the London-NY transition. That high sits just above the 78.6% retracement of the Wed–Thu sell-off, which ran from the 0.7013 week high to 0.6894 on the jobs miss, and price was rejected there. The NY pullback has since held at 0.6974 on EMA(20) and the Monday higher-lows trendline, with RSI(14) easing from the low 60s to ~53 and the 0.7000 range top still unchallenged.
Support: 0.6975, 0.69685, 0.6943
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6968 swing low (61.8% of the sell-off) breaks Monday's higher-low sequence and opens a gap fill toward the friday close at 0.6943
Sustained trade back under ema20 near 0.6975 would mark the first failed pullback since Monday's open
H1 close above the 0.6992 monday high exposes the 0.7000 range top and the 0.7013 week high
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC and RBA Governor Bullock Fri 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Thursday's 0.6894 low within the 0.6900–0.7013 range.
AUD/USD gapped above Friday's 0.6943 close at the weekly open and climbed steadily through the Asia and London sessions on hawkish RBA Kent comments and a China GDP beat. That extended the recovery from Thursday's jobs-driven slide to 0.6894, retracing over 80% of the drop. The push stalled at a 0.6993 Monday high in the first hour of NY as US yields bounced, and the NY-afternoon pullback broke Monday's rising trendline but is holding ema20 near 0.6975, with RSI(14) easing from the high-60s to ~56. The 0.7000 psych level and the Wednesday high at 0.7013, where supply produced a sharp rejection, mark the range top.
Support: 0.6975, 0.69643, 0.69501
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 closes above 0.7000 psych and the 0.7013 Wednesday high would break the three-week range top; AU flash PMIs (Wed 22:00 UTC) and Bullock (Thu 10:00 UTC) are the likely catalysts
Failure to hold ema20 and the 0.6964 weekly open would put the 0.6950 Monday low and the recovery fib 38.2% near 0.6955 back in focus
Another rejection at the 0.6993 Monday high would mark a lower high beneath 0.7000 and keep the range read intact
US Housing Starts and Building Permits (Tue 12:30 UTC) could shift USD via yields during NY hours
AUDUSD has retraced most of last week's jobs-driven slide from 0.7013 to 0.6894. Since Thursday it has printed higher lows, and the week opened with a gap above Friday's 0.6943 close as Kent's hawkish remarks and the China GDP beat lifted AUD. London extended Monday's Asia gains before a rejection at the 0.6993 day high in the first hour of NY, short of the 0.7000 range top. Price is now resting on EMA(20) near 0.6975 with RSI(14) around 55, while the 0.6969 swing low lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the jobs slide.
Support: 0.6975, 0.69685, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69925, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6969 swing low and the 0.6964 weekly open would break Monday's higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.6993 day high exposes the 0.7000 range top and the 0.7013 week high
Rising support from Thursday's low, near 0.6963 now, is the floor under the recovery
US Housing Starts and Permits (Tue 12:30 UTC) could shift the USD leg; AU flash PMIs on Oct 22 are the next AUD catalyst
15:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend, approaching range top · RSI 63 · price 0.69842
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; Monday trendline intact.
The week's dominant move was the mid-week slide from the 0.7013 week high to 0.6894. The AU jobs miss accelerated the drop in Thursday's Asia session before a low formed at Thursday's NY open; since then AUD has printed higher lows and gapped up at Monday's weekly open on the China GDP beat and Kent's hawkish remarks. Price has now retraced roughly 78.6% of that drop and holds above ema20 with RSI(14) near 63, pressing Monday's higher-lows trendline just under the 0.6993 Monday high and the 0.7000 range top.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6964, 0.6943
Resistance: 0.6993, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 range top opens a retest of the 0.7013 week high
Close below Monday's higher-lows trendline and ema20 near 0.6978 shifts the read to a pullback toward the weekly open at 0.6964
Failure to hold the 0.6943 Friday close fills the weekly gap and breaks the higher-low sequence
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC could shift USD pricing and this read
14:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pressing the week's range top · RSI 64 · price 0.69888
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; Monday gap-up holding.
AUD/USD has retraced roughly 79% of last week's slide from the 0.7013 week high to Thursday's 0.6894 low. The rebound came in steps: Friday's higher low at 0.6936, then a Monday gap-up from the 0.6943 Friday close. Price has held above the ema20 all session as Kent's hawkish neutral-rate remarks, the China GDP beat and a softer USD added support. The Monday high at 0.6991 now sits just under the 0.7000 round number, the top of the range.
Support: 0.6977, 0.69501, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.69906, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 round number and then the 0.7013 week high would complete the round trip of the jobs-driven drop
Break of the rising trendline and ema20 near 0.6977 would point to a deeper pullback toward the 0.6950 Monday low
Loss of the 0.6936 Friday low would break the higher-low sequence
US Housing Starts and Building Permits Tue 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone near the range top
Higher lows off Thursday's 0.6894 low; Monday higher-low sequence intact.
Monday gapped up from Friday's 0.6943 close and printed higher lows through Asia into London, lifting price back above the ema20 and the 61.8% retracement of last week's jobs-led slide from the 0.7013 swing high to 0.6894. Kent's hawkish neutral-rate remarks, the China GDP beat and a softer USD fed the leg, but the London push stalled at the 0.6991 monday high, short of 0.7000 psych, with RSI(14) easing to ~59 from 66. The London-open dip held the 0.6968 pullback low, leaving the weekly open at 0.6964 as the next reference below.
Support: 0.6972, 0.69685, 0.69643
Resistance: 0.69906, 0.7000, 0.70126
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6968 pullback low breaks Monday's higher-low sequence and brings the 0.6964 weekly open into play
Close above the 0.6991 monday high opens a test of 0.7000 psych and the 0.7013 swing high
A new high above 0.6991 with RSI(14) below 66 would mark bearish divergence
Close back below the ema20 near 0.6972 shifts the read from trend to range
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC; AU flash PMIs Oct 22 22:00 UTC could shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; testing 78.6% of week's sell-off.
Wednesday's NY-session drop from the 0.7013 week high extended through Thursday after the -39.3K AU jobs miss, briefly breaking below 0.6900 before a false break that has since unwound into a series of higher lows. Monday gapped up from Friday's 0.6943 close to a 0.6964 weekly open on China's Q3 GDP beat and a soft USD. London then pushed to a 0.6990 session high, right at the 78.6% retrace, with price holding above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 67. The 61.8% fib at 0.6967 sits just under current price, with the 0.7000 psych level overhead.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6964, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7013 week high clears the 0.7000 psych barrier and negates the sell-off's lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 0.6990 session high / 78.6% retrace, with a slip back below the 0.6964 weekly open, puts the unfilled gap toward 0.6943 in view
Break of the 0.6936 friday low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 0.6900 area
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC and AU PMIs Wed 22:00 UTC could shift USD and AUD tone
09:05 UTC
Recovery leg after sharp sell-off, momentum firm · RSI 64 · price 0.69766
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; retesting the pre-jobs-report breakdown area near 0.6980.
AUDUSD has retraced most of last week's 0.7013–0.6894 slide, which ran from Wednesday's NY session through Thursday's jobs miss and US PPI, with higher lows at 0.6894, Friday's 0.6936 and the 0.6950 Monday low. Monday gapped up to a 0.6964 weekly open and extended through Asia and the London open on the China GDP beat and hawkish RBA Kent remarks. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 0.6966 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, now retesting the 0.6980 Monday high just above the 61.8% retracement.
Support: 0.6964, 0.6950, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6980 monday high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7013 prior high
Loss of the 0.6964 weekly open and EMA(20) shifts focus to the 0.6950 monday low and the higher-low trendline
Break below the 0.6894 swing low revives the lower-low sequence from the slide
US housing starts and permits Tue 12:30 UTC, then Bullock speech and US PMIs Fri 23 Oct, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.6894; ~72% retrace of last week's decline.
AUDUSD has retraced roughly 72% of last week's 0.7013–0.6894 decline, which was driven by Thursday's -39.3K jobs miss. The pair gapped about 21 pips higher at the weekly open on the China GDP beat and Kent's hawkish lean, and Asia-session higher lows have carried it toward the 78.6% fib at 0.6987. Price holds above EMA(20), which sits on the 0.6964 weekly open and crossed above EMA(50) early Monday. RSI(14) is at 65, short of overbought, with the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7013 prior high above.
Support: 0.6964, 0.6950, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.6964 weekly open and EMA(20) would break Monday's higher lows; losing the 0.6950 monday low exposes the 0.6936 friday low
Rejection at the 78.6% fib keeps this a retracement of the decline; acceptance above the 0.7000 psych level opens the 0.7013 prior high
US ADP, housing starts and permits Tue 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6894 low; price is retesting the 0.6980 breakdown area below the 0.7013 week high.
Last week's 119-pip slide ran from the 0.7013 week high to 0.6894. It started with the NY-session drop on hot US CPI and accelerated after Thursday's -39.3K AU jobs miss in Asia. AUD/USD has since retraced more than 61.8% of that slide, gapping up to the 0.6950 gap low at Monday's open and extending in the Asia session on the China Q3 GDP beat. Price sits above the EMA(20) near 0.6962 with RSI(14) around 65, and is now pressing the 0.6980 jobs break where Thursday's breakdown began.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6950, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6980 jobs break opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7013 week high
Failure to hold the EMA(20) and the 0.6950 gap low, then the 0.6936 friday low, would break the higher-lows line
US ADP and housing data Tue from 12:15 UTC could shift this read if Fed-hike pricing revives
05:05 UTC
Recovering within a weekly downtrend, higher lows since Thursday · RSI 64 · price 0.69746
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.6894 week low, unfilled weekend gap.
The Wednesday-Thursday slide from the 0.7013 week high to the 0.6894 week low came on hot US CPI/PPI and the -39.3K Australian jobs miss. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at the 0.6936 Friday low and the 0.6950 Monday low. Monday's open gapped higher on the China GDP beat, and the Asia session cleared Friday's 0.6967 high to a 0.6977 session high. Price now holds above the 61.8% retrace of the week's drop and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 64 and not yet overbought.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6936, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.6977 session high opens the 0.7000 psych mark and the 0.7013 week high
Failure to hold the 0.6950 Monday low fills the weekend gap and breaks the higher-lows line toward the 0.6936 Friday low
A break below 0.6936 would put the 0.6894 week low back in focus and void the 61.8% retrace hold
US housing starts and permits (Tue 12:15–12:30 UTC) could revive or extend the soft-USD tone behind the bounce
The week high at 0.7013 gave way in a Wednesday NY-hours slide, and Thursday's -39.3K jobs miss extended it to 0.6894 during NY hours. Since then the pair has carved higher lows at 0.6907, 0.6936 (the friday low) and 0.6950 (the monday low). Monday's Asia session gapped up roughly 21 pips on the China Q3 GDP beat and has pushed through the 0.6967 friday high, the 61.8% retracement of the selloff fib. Price sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 61 and is pressing the 0.6980 pre-jobs high, with the 0.7000 psych level next.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6950, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6980 pre-jobs high opens a test of 0.7000 psych and the 0.7013 week high
Slip back below the 0.6967 friday high leaves the 61.8% fib breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.6950 monday low fills the weekend gap and breaks the higher lows trendline
AU flash PMIs Wed 22:00 UTC and US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 0.6894; retracing the Wed-Thu sell-off.
AUD/USD has retraced most of the Wednesday-Thursday slide from the 0.7013 week high to 0.6894, which the weak September jobs print extended. Friday's 0.6936 swing low held as a higher low. Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 20-pip gap up on the China Q3 GDP beat and a softer USD, and price has nudged through the fri high near 0.6967, which also marks the 61.8% fib of the drop. Price is holding above the ema20 near 0.6960 with RSI(14) around 61, and the fib 78.6 level near 0.6987 sits just under the 0.7000 psych mark.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6960, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.6967 fri high returns price to Friday's 0.6936-0.6967 range and leaves the push as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6936 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the recovery structure
Acceptance above the 0.7000 psych level would retrace almost the whole jobs-driven drop, with the 0.7013 week high next
Tue US housing data (12:15-14:00 UTC) and Fed speakers ahead of the October FOMC could shift USD tone
Unfilled Monday gap down to Friday's 0.6943 close stays open while price holds above the ema20
02:04 UTC
Recovery leg inside a larger drop, at the 61.8% retracement · RSI 59 · price 0.69691
Higher low at 0.6936 after the 0.6894 low; lower high vs 0.7013 intact.
The week's dominant move was the slide from the 0.7013 high: it began in Wednesday's NY session, the Australian jobs miss in Thursday Asia extended it, and it bottomed at 0.6894 during Thursday NY hours. That dip below 0.6900 failed to hold on a closing basis, and the rebound has since built higher lows at 0.6936 Friday as softer Fed signalling capped the USD. Monday's Asia open gapped up from Friday's 0.6943 close to the 0.6964 weekly open, and price is now pressing the 61.8% retracement near the 0.6972 Monday high, with ema20 at 0.6953 trailing below.
Support: 0.6964, 0.6953, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6980 pre-jobs high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 0.7000 psych level
A gap fill below the 0.6964 weekly open puts ema20 at 0.6953 (50% retracement) back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6936 Friday low breaks the higher lows trendline and refocuses the 0.6894 low
Chinese data due in early Monday Asia could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Rebound from last week's low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 0.69625
Higher lows off 0.6894; 61.8% retrace capping.
Wednesday's NY-session drop from the 0.7013 prior-week high, followed by Thursday's -39.3K jobs miss, carried the pair to the 0.6894 prior-week low. Price has since printed higher lows as Fed officials signalled no urgency to hike. Monday's Asia open gapped about 20 pips above Friday's 0.6943 prior close. The rebound has stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.6967 and the 0.6972 Asia high, with price holding just above EMA(20) at 0.6956 and RSI(14) flat near 54.
Support: 0.6956, 0.6943, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.6980, 0.7013
What it said to watch
Chinese activity data in the Asia session could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6980 pre-jobs high opens the path to 0.7000 and the 0.7013 prior-week high
Failure to hold the EMA(20) at 0.6956 exposes the 0.6943 prior close and a gap fill
A break of the higher-low trendline would expose the 0.6894 prior-week low
Hormuz/oil headlines and Tuesday's US housing data are USD-side risks
00:04 UTC
Recovering within a broader down-leg, testing 61.8% retracement · RSI 57 · price 0.69715
Higher lows off Thursday's 0.6894 low; weekend gap-up back at Friday high.
Last week topped at the 0.7013 week high on Wednesday. A two-day selloff followed, reaching 0.6894 in Thursday's NY session as the AU jobs miss and hot US PPI/retail data stacked up. Friday's rebound stalled at the 61.8% retracement near 0.6967 and faded into the 0.6936 friday low during NY hours. Monday's Asia open then gapped up about 21 pips on Kent's higher-neutral-rates remark. Price now sits back at that high, above the ema20 (0.6952) and EMA(50) (0.6950), with RSI(14) near 57 and the higher lows from Thursday intact.
Support: 0.6964, 0.6952, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.7000, 0.7013
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6980 pre-jobs high clears the 61.8% retracement of the selloff and opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level and 0.7013 week high
A gap fill back through the 0.6964 weekly open toward the ema20 at 0.6952 would leave the Asia gap-up as a lower high under 0.6980
Loss of the 0.6936 friday low breaks the higher lows trendline from Thursday's 0.6894 low
Hormuz/oil headlines in the Asia session and US housing data Tue 12:30 UTC could shift USD pricing and this read