19:04 UTC
Range-bound above rising EMA50 after January breakout · RSI 50 · price 0.70182
Contracting 0.6833-0.7277 range since Q1 2026, lower high and higher lows.
AUD/USD broke out of its 2025 0.64-0.67 base in January and has rotated inside a 0.6833-0.7277 range since Q1 2026. September's 0.7237 lower high below the 0.7277 2026 high, and higher lows since March including the 0.6894 oct low, have left a contracting range. Price at 0.7018 sits mid-range, just under the W1 EMA20 near 0.7046 and above the rising W1 EMA50 at 0.6927, so the macro uptrend filter is intact. The 50% retracement of the Nov-May rally lines up with the 0.6833-0.6865 range floor. Hawkish RBA repricing against a Fed hold has held the pair around 0.70 despite contractionary AU PMIs, and RSI near 50 shows no extreme.
Support: 0.6927, 0.6894, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.7046, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the W1 EMA50 at 0.6927 and the 0.6894 oct low would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 0.6833 range floor
- Weekly close back above the W1 EMA20 at 0.7046 and then the 0.7237 lower high would reopen the 0.7277 2026 high
- AU CPI and Bullock on Wed Oct 28 (00:30 UTC), then the FOMC decision later that day, could materially shift the RBA-Fed divergence read
- Failure to hold the 0.7000 psych level would shift trade back toward the lower half of the range