19:04 UTC
Macro uptrend, consolidating in a narrowing range · RSI 52 · price 0.70271
Contracting range since Feb: lower highs vs higher lows inside 0.6833–0.7277.
The January 2026 break out of the 0.6360–0.6720 base set the uptrend regime. Since Q1, price has compressed into a narrowing range, with lower highs at the 2026 high (0.7277, May) and the Sept high (0.7237) against higher lows at the march low (0.6833), June (0.6865) and the Oct low (0.6894). Price holds above the rising W1 EMA(50) near 0.6930, close to the 38.2% retracement of the 2025-26 advance, so the macro structure is intact. Hot Australian CPI and RBA hike pricing lifted the pair off the Oct low, but the monthly high at 0.7068 is capping the recovery for now.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6894, 0.6833
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue Nov 3 (~80% hike priced) and the US midterms could materially shift this read
- A weekly close below the oct low at 0.6894 and the ema50 breaks the higher-lows trendline
- Loss of the march low at 0.6833 would be the first lower low since the base break
- A weekly close above the sept high at 0.7237 voids the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 2026 high at 0.7277
- Monthly high at 0.7068 is the nearest cap; acceptance above it returns price to the upper half of the range