Higher lows since 0.6894; lower highs off 0.7068 inside 0.7013-0.7043.
The rally from the 0.6894 mid-month low printed a series of higher lows and peaked at the 0.7068 monthly high after the hot Australian September CPI. Strong US data then pulled price back. Since that rejection, price has compressed between a range floor at 0.7013, tested twice, and a range top near 0.7043, with highs stepping lower. Price is chopping around a flat EMA20, the EMA50 sits just underneath, and RSI is neutral near 51. ATR(14) has eased to about 19 pips from 30+ during the mid-month selloff.
Support: 0.7013, 0.7001, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (hike ~80% priced) could materially shift this read, with Bullock presser at 04:30 UTC
H4 close below the 0.7013 range floor breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.7001 and the 0.6994 swing low
H4 close above the 0.7043 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.7068 monthly high
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's midterms are USD-side risks to the range
Higher-high, higher-low sequence holds from the 0.6894 swing low through the 0.6994 higher low. The post-CPI and post-Fed push to the 0.7068 month high, through the 0.7054 prior high, was rejected once US data firmed the USD. Since then price has compressed in a 0.7014-0.7043 range, with the range low sitting on the rising trendline. Price is pinned at EMA20 and holds above EMA50, while ATR(14) near 20 pips is below the earlier-month expansion, consistent with consolidation ahead of event risk.
Support: 0.7014, 0.6994, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7043, 0.7054, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7014 range low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.7001 and the 0.6994 higher low
H4 close above the 0.7043 range top reopens the 0.7054 prior high and the 0.7068 month high
Loss of the 0.6994 higher low would end the higher-low structure and bring the 0.6894 swing low back into view
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (hike to 4.85% ~80% priced) could materially shift this read; a hold is the unpriced outcome
US ISM Mon and midterm elections Tue add USD-side event risk to the range
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from month high · RSI 48 · price 0.70274
Higher lows intact since 0.6894; lower highs inside a 0.7014–0.7043 range.
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.6894 swing low, with successive troughs at 0.6994 and 0.7009. The hot Australian CPI and a post-FOMC USD dip carried the pair to a month high of 0.7068 before strong US GDP reversed it. Price is now consolidating between the 0.7014 swing low and a 0.7043 lower high, near the 23.6% fib. It sits just below ema20 (~0.7033) and above EMA50, with ATR(14) around 18 pips and no sign of expansion.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7001, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7043, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7014 swing low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.7001, then the 0.6994 higher low
Reclaiming ema20 and closing above the 0.7043 lower high reopens the 0.7068 month high
RBA decision Tue 3 Nov 03:30 UTC (~80% priced for a hike) overlapping US midterms could materially shift this read
Fed's Daly and Musalem later today and USD reaction to ECI could move price out of the current range
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from the 0.7068 high · RSI 45 · price 0.70229
Higher lows since 0.6894; lower highs near 0.7042 since the peak.
Higher-low structure has held since the mid-month 0.6894 low, with pivots at the 0.6994 base low, 0.7009 and the 0.7014 swing low. The hot CPI week and a dovish-read Fed lifted AUDUSD to a 0.7068 swing high, then hot US GDP data reversed it. Price has since slipped below the ema20 near 0.7033 and is retesting the higher-low trendline and EMA50 around 0.7015-0.7020, while sellers cap the bounces at a 0.7042 lower high. ATR(14) near 19 pips is well below the mid-month expansion, a compressed regime with the trendline and the lower-high cap converging.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7000, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7042, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7014 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.7000 round number, which sits near the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 0.6994 base low would undo the rally structure from 0.6894
Reclaiming the ema20 and closing above the 0.7042 lower high reopens the 0.7068 swing high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC today could move USD before the weekly close
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (~80% hike priced) could materially shift this read; a hold is the larger surprise risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the mid-month 0.6894 low.
The higher-low sequence from the mid-month 0.6894 trough is intact. The hot Australian CPI print lifted the pair to a month high at 0.7068 before strong US data pulled it back to a 0.7014 swing low. That dip held above the 38.2% fib at 0.7001 and the rising higher-lows trendline, and price is now back above both EMAs with ATR(14) near 20 pips, moderate rather than expanding.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7001, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7054, 0.7068
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7054 prior high reopens the 0.7068 month high; a break there extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7014 swing low and the 38.2% fib at 0.7001 puts the 0.6994 higher low and the trendline in play
A close below the 0.6994 higher low would break the swing structure in place since mid-month
US ECI today and the RBA decision on Tue 3 Nov could materially shift this read; a hold versus the ~80% priced hike is the larger swing risk
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 49 · price 0.70271
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-month low; pullback testing 23.6% fib.
AUDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6894 swing low mid-month, reaching a window high of 0.7068 before a rejection pulled price back to the 23.6% fib near 0.7027. Price sits below EMA(20) but just above EMA(50). The EMA(20) remains above EMA(50), and ATR(14) near 18-19 pips shows no expansion. Hot Australian CPI lifted RBA hike pricing, but firm US GDP data capped the advance under the 0.7054 swing high, with 0.7040 prior high resistance now overhead.
Support: 0.70141, 0.7009, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.70539
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7014 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the rising sequence; the 0.7009 higher low and 0.6994 prior low sit just beneath
Reclaim of the 0.7040 prior high reopens the 0.7054 swing high and the 0.7068 window high
A move below the 38.2% fib near 0.7001 would deepen the retracement of the mid-month advance
RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (~82% priced for +25bp) could materially shift this read; a hold is the larger asymmetric risk
US ECI and Fed speakers Fri could re-test the USD-driven cap