Higher highs and higher lows since 0.6894; pullback holding above 0.7009.
AUDUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since the mid-month 0.6894 low, and hot AU CPI drove the latest push to a 0.7067 window high. That high met rejection as the US Q3 GDP beat firmed the dollar, and price has slipped back through the 0.7054 prior high to a 0.7014 swing low. The pullback sits near the 23.6% retracement of the 0.6894-0.7067 impulse and above the rising higher-low line, with RSI back to neutral and price hovering at EMA20 while holding above EMA50; ATR(14) near 18 pips is moderate, neither compressed nor expanding.
Support: 0.70141, 0.7009, 0.69936
Resistance: 0.70539, 0.70675
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.7009 higher low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6994 pivot low near the 38.2% impulse retracement
A sustained close back above the 0.7054 prior high and the 0.7067 window high would extend the higher-high structure
US ECI Q3 Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) plus Daly and Musalem remarks could shift December Fed pricing and this read
RBA decision 3 Nov 03:30 UTC with a hike ~82% priced; a surprise hold would test the higher-low line
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at swing high · RSI 61 · price 0.70435
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6894 mid-month low.
The rally from the 0.6894 low has built a clean sequence of higher lows (0.6994, 0.7009, 0.7023) along a rising trendline. The hot AU CPI set extended it to a 0.7068 swing high, but the last two bars left upper wicks there and a rejection pulled price back under the 0.7054 prior high. Price holds above both EMAs with EMA20 over EMA50, while ATR(14) near 17 pips is well below the expansion seen during the mid-month selloff, a compressed regime under resistance.
Support: 0.70229, 0.7009, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70539
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.7068 swing high would extend the higher-high sequence and invalidate the rejection read
A break below the 0.7023 higher low would interrupt the uptrend structure and expose the 0.7009 swing low
Loss of the rising trendline and 0.7000 psych, near the 38.2% fib of the rally, would signal a deeper retracement
US Q3 GDP and Sep PCE in ~4h could materially shift this read
RBA decision on 3 Nov: a hold vs the ~82% priced hike is the main structural risk to the rally
05:05 UTC
Uptrend, testing highs · RSI 64 · price 0.7052
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6894 swing low; prior range top broken.
AUDUSD has posted higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6894 swing low, with dips holding at 0.6994, the 0.7009 higher low and the 0.7023 swing low. This week's hot Australian CPI pushed price out of the week-long range, through the 0.7040 range top, to a 0.7068 swing high, where upper wicks show supply capping the move. Price sits above a rising EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 17 pips is modest, so the impulse from 0.6894 is grinding higher rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7023, 0.7009
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7100
What it said to watch
US core PCE and GDP in today's NY session could materially shift this read; a hot print risks a slip back under the 0.7040 range top
H4 close above the 0.7068 swing high opens the path toward the 0.7100 round number
Failure to hold the 0.7023 swing low and the higher-low trendline would put the 0.7009 higher low and the 38.2% retracement of the impulse near 0.7001 in play
RBA decision on Nov 3 is the main multi-day risk to the uptrend structure
01:05 UTC
Uptrend, breaking out of a multi-day range · RSI 67 · price 0.70549
Higher lows since 0.6894; range break above 0.7040.
Higher-low structure has held since the 0.6894 swing low, with lows stepping up at 0.6994 and the 0.7009 range floor. After roughly a week capped near 0.7040, the pair broke higher on the hot AU CPI beat and post-Fed USD softness, printing a 0.7064 swing high along the impulse from 0.6894. Price sits above both EMAs with EMA20 over EMA50, and ATR(14) near 17 pips is expanding off the compressed range.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7009, 0.6994
Resistance: 0.7064, 0.7070, 0.7100
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.7040 prior cap would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7009 range floor, then the 0.6994 swing low, would end the higher-low sequence
Close above the 0.7064 swing high and 0.7070 res opens the path to the 0.7100 round number
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC, then the RBA decision 3 Nov 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read