AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 40 · price 0.70239
Lower highs from 0.7041; 0.7017 session low holding above 0.7014 GDP low.
The US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD to a 0.7014 GDP low after a day of selling from the 0.7067 Asian high. The NY high at 0.7041 capped the bounce, and lower highs have stepped down since. Early Asia dipped to a 0.7017 session low before recovering to 0.7024, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70306, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7031 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7041 NY high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.7017 session low exposes the 0.7014 GDP low; a break there extends the downtrend
Australian PPI at 00:30 UTC could move this read in the next bars; US ECI at 12:30 UTC is the larger USD-side risk
Lower highs since Asia high; late low holding above NY low.
AUDUSD has bled from the 0.7068 Asia high through London, and the US GDP beat drove the NY low to 0.7014. The rebound met rejection at 0.7041, the 50% retrace, and has printed lower highs along the descending trendline since, with 0.7036 the latest lower high. Early Asia now: a late-session dip to 0.7017 held above the NY low, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read in early Asia
Close above the 0.7036 lower high breaks the descending trendline sequence
Close above 0.7041 (50% retrace) negates the downtrend read and reopens 0.7068 Asia high
Failure to hold the 0.7014 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7000 round number
A break of the 0.7017 late low puts the NY low back in play
Lower-high sequence since the Asia high; pressing back toward the NY low.
AUD faded from Thursday's 0.7068 Asia high as USD firmed on the 3.4% Q3 GDP beat, printing a 0.7014 NY low. Rebounds hit a double cap at 0.7041, and each lower high since has come in under the last. Early Friday Asia trade is pressing a new session low at 0.7017, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.70172, 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70306, 0.70414
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7014 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7000 psych handle
M15 close above the 0.7031 lower high, and the lower-high line, invalidates the intraday downtrend read; the double cap at 0.7041 sits above that
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC is the last inflation check before the RBA and could jolt the session low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into Asia open · RSI 34 · price 0.70235
Lower highs from 0.7041 NY high; bounce from 0.7014 retraced past 61.8%.
USD firmed on the 3.4% Q3 GDP beat, dragging AUD from the 0.7068 Asian high to a 0.7014 day low in NY. The bounce was rejected at the 0.7041 ny high, matching the London high, and the post-NY drift through the fib 50% now tests the 0.7023 session low beneath the descending trendline.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7020, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7036, 0.7041
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7023 session low exposes the 0.7020 round number and the 0.7014 day low
Recovery through the 0.7028 fib 50% and the 0.7036 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC, about 1h45 out, could materially shift this read in thin early-Asia liquidity
22:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, drifting lower in thin early Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.70257
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7041 double cap; holding above the 0.7014 NY low.
London broke below the 0.7041–0.7068 Asian range. The firm US GDP beat then took AUDUSD to the 0.7014 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 0.7041 double cap, matching the London high, and price has printed a lower high at 0.7031 and a 0.7023 session low into early Asia. It now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the NY rebound fib, with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.7041, 0.7068
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7031 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.7041 double cap back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7023 session low exposes the 0.7014 NY low and the full retrace of the NY rebound
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC (~2h) is the next AUD-side input and could shift this read in thin liquidity
Lower highs from 0.70414; tight range above 0.7023 late low.
After the 0.70675 Asian spike faded through London, the hot US Q3 GDP print at 12:30 UTC drove the pair to a 0.70141 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 0.70414 ny high, and the 0.7036 lower high since then sits on a falling lower-high trendline. Early Asia is compressing at the 50% retrace of the NY rebound, with the 0.7023 late low below.
Support: 0.7023, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 late low exposes the 0.70141 ny low
Break of the 0.7036 lower high and trendline turns the read to range, with the 0.70414 ny high above
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could move the pair out of the early Asia range
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY rebound · RSI 45 · price 0.70266
Lower highs at 0.7041 then 0.7036; holding above NY low 0.7014.
London broke the Asian low at 0.7047. Strong US GDP and claims data then drove NY to a 0.7014 low, and the rebound stalled at the 0.7041 double cap, the second rejection there after the London bounce. Early Asia is fading below the 0.7036 lower high: the late low at 0.7023 printed in thin rollover trade, sitting near the 61.8% of the NY rebound, with ATR compressed to under 4 pips.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7014, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7041, 0.7047
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 late low exposes the 0.7014 NY low, then 0.7000 psych
Recovery above the 0.7036 lower high and the falling trendline would neutralise the lower-high sequence; the 0.7041 double cap is the next test
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could break the compressed Asian range
Lower highs below 0.7041 after rebound from NY low.
The slide from the Asian high at 0.7068 bottomed at the NY low of 0.7014 after the US GDP beat firmed the dollar. The rebound met rejection at 0.7041, which is the 50% fib and the London bounce high. A late-NY lower high at 0.7036 leaves price drifting near 0.7030, below both EMAs with RSI 46, as the Asia session opens.
Support: 0.70249, 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7036 lower high, then 0.7041 (50% fib), would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the late-NY low at 0.7025 exposes the 0.7014 NY low and the 0.7000 round number
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could move the Asian range; US ECI on Fri at 12:30 UTC is the next USD risk
21:33 UTC
Down from Asia high, rebound stalling · RSI 41 · price 0.70282
Lower highs below 0.7041, tight late-NY range above 0.7027.
The GDP beat and firm USD tone pushed AUD/USD from the 0.7068 Asian high to a 0.7014 NY low. The rebound hit a double cap at 0.7041, rejected at 11:00 and 16:00 UTC, and a lower high at 0.7036 followed. Price is now drifting after the NY close just above the late low at 0.7027, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70266, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 late low reopens the 0.7014 NY low
Close above the 0.7036 lower high and falling trendline puts the 0.7041 double cap back in play
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC during the Asia session could break the current tight range
Lower highs below 0.7041 after rebound off 0.7014.
AUDUSD slid from the 0.70675 Asian high through London and hit a 0.70141 session low after the US Q3 GDP beat. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 0.7041. Late NY is drifting in a 0.7027–0.7036 band under a lower high, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7020, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414, 0.70675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.70266 late NY low exposes the 0.7020 round number and the 0.70141 session low
M15 close above the 0.7036 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 50% fib at 0.7041
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in Asia could reset the range; the Asian high at 0.70675 stays the upper reference
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.7041 double cap, holding 50% of NY rebound.
AUDUSD faded from the 0.7067 Asia high. The US GDP beat and in-line core PCE pushed NY to a 0.7014 NY low before a rebound stalled at the 0.7041 double cap. Late NY is printing lower highs, with the last one at 0.7036, and price is pressing the 0.7027 late low near the 50% retrace of that rebound, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70266, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 late low breaks the 50% retrace and exposes the 0.7014 NY low
Close above the 0.7036 lower high breaks the late-NY lower-high trendline toward the 0.7041 double cap
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in early Asia could shift this read
20:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.70281
Lower highs from 0.7041 pressing a flat 0.7027 base.
London broke below the Asian low near 0.7047, and the US GDP beat drove a spike to the 0.7014 data low. The rebound met rejection at the 0.7041 NY high, the 50% fib of the 0.7068–0.7014 drop. Since then, lower highs at 0.7039 and the 0.7036 lower high have compressed price onto the late NY base at 0.7027, with price below both EMAs as NY winds down.
Support: 0.70273, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414, 0.7047
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.7027 late NY base opens a retest of the 0.7014 data low
A close above the 0.7036 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens 0.7041
A reclaim of the 0.7041 NY high, the 50% fib, would invalidate the lower-high sequence
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in Asia session could break the late NY compression
20:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, consolidating late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.70306
Lower highs from 0.7041 pressing a flat 0.7027 base.
Sold from the 0.7068 Asian high through London, and the US GDP beat extended the drop to a 0.7014 session low. The NY rebound saw rejection at the 50% fib near 0.7041, the old Asia low. Late NY is now a tight band above the 0.7027 late NY low, with a lower high at 0.7036 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70273, 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7036 lower high and 0.7041 Asia low breaks the lower-highs sequence and the 50% fib rejection
Failure to hold the 0.7027 late NY low exposes the 0.7014 session low, then the 0.7000 round number
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
20:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off the Asia spike · RSI 39 · price 0.70287
Lower highs capped by descending trendline; testing 0.7028 swing low.
Lower highs since the 0.7068 Asia session spike, with the slide extending to a 0.7014 NY low after the US Q3 GDP beat. The rebound stalled at the 0.7041 swing high, and a rejection at the descending trendline near 0.7036 has price back on the 0.7028 swing low, near the 50% fib of the NY rebound, late in NY hours.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.7014 NY low
Close above the trendline at 0.7036 and the 0.7041 swing high invalidates the lower-high sequence
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
AUD/USD bled from the 0.7068 Asian high through London and hit a 0.7014 session low after the US Q3 GDP beat. The rebound was rejected at 0.7041, the twin highs from London and NY that sit on the 50% fib. Price is now ranging in late NY between the 0.7028 higher low and the 0.7036 late-ny high, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414, 0.7047
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.70275 higher low reopens the 0.7014 session low
A close above the 0.7041 twin highs exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.7047
A move through the 0.7036 late-ny high tests the top of the range
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could break the range
US ECI on Friday at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Sideways, recovering from NY low · RSI 49 · price 0.70335
Higher low at 0.7028 under a double cap at 0.7041.
AUD extended its post-Fed fade through London and into the US GDP beat, hitting a 0.7014 session low before recovering into a double cap at 0.7041 (London and NY highs). The late NY pullback held a higher low at 0.7028, near the 50% fib of that recovery, and price now sits mid-range just under the late NY high at 0.7036, flat around the EMAs.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.70414, 0.7050
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 double cap reopens the Asian low near 0.7050
Failure to hold the 0.7028 higher low exposes the 0.7014 session low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC, early in the Asia session, could reset the range
19:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stabilising in late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.7034
Higher low at 0.7028 after the 0.7014 day low; lower highs under 0.7041.
Price broke below the Asian range low near 0.7041 before London, and the US GDP beat in the NY session drove it to a 0.7014 day low. The rebound stalled at the london high at 0.7041, where price was rejected twice. Late NY is holding a swing low at 0.7028, near the 50% rebound fib, forming rising lows with price pinned around the EMAs and ATR(14) near 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7068 asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.7028 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.7014 day low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs off the 0.7068 Asia high; 0.7028–0.7035 drift late NY.
AUD faded from the 0.7068 Asia high, and London broke below the 0.7041 Asian low. The hot US GDP print (3.4%) extended the drop to a 0.7014 NY low. The rebound was rejected at the 0.7041 double high, and price is now holding just above the 0.7028 swing low under a series of lower highs, with RSI(14) at 43 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70348, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 swing low (about 50% of the NY rebound) exposes the 0.7014 NY low
Close above the 0.7035 lower high, then the 0.7041 double high, breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the gap toward the 0.7068 Asia high
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could reset the overnight range
ATR(14) near 4 pips; late-NY compression makes small breaks unreliable until Asia
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce fading · RSI 42 · price 0.70303
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asian high; NY bounce capped near 50% retrace.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since the 0.7068 Asian high. The 12:30 UTC US data, a GDP beat plus lower claims, extended the slide to a 0.7014 session low. The NY bounce stalled at 0.7041, near the 50% retracement of that move, and price is now back at the 0.7028 swing low late in NY hours, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 swing low exposes the 0.7014 session low, with 0.7000 psych beneath
Reclaim of the 0.7041 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.7068 Asian high above
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could move price in the Asia session
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, rebound faded · RSI 42 · price 0.70288
Lower highs from 0.7068; NY bounce capped at 0.7041, price back below NY range low.
Lower highs since the 0.7068 Asian-session spike. The 12:30 UTC US GDP beat and sub-200K claims drove the leg to the 0.7014 day low. The NY rebound stalled at 0.7041, the 50% retracement of the drop and a double top with the late-London high. Late NY has slipped back below the 0.7034 NY range low, with price under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.7020, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70335, 0.70414, 0.70463
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7020 round number exposes the 0.7014 day low
Recovery above the 0.7034 NY range low and the 0.7041 double top would break the lower-high chain; the 0.7046 London high sits above
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs below 0.7041 double cap after bounce off 0.7014 session low.
AUD bled from the 0.7068 asian high through London, and the US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC extended the slide to a 0.7014 session low. The NY rebound stalled at 0.7041, a double cap with the London bounce high. Price is now grinding through lower highs back under the ema cluster near 0.7034, sitting between the 38.2% and fib 50% retracement of the NY rebound.
Support: 0.70278, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70335, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 double cap breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the asian high at 0.7068
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 0.7028 exposes the 0.7014 session low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7068; post-data rebound capped at 50% fib, tight range since London close.
AUD/USD slid from the 0.7068 Asia high through London and set a 0.7014 NY low after the US GDP beat. It then rebounded to 0.7041, where rejection at the equal highs lined up with the 50% retracement. Since the London close it has compressed in a 0.7031–0.7041 band, sitting between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.7031, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7046, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 equal highs breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.7046 london high, then the 0.7068 asia high
Failure to hold the 0.7031 range low reopens the 0.7014 ny low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
Lower high at 0.7041 after 0.7014 day low, back on London base.
The pair slid from the 0.7068 Asia high through London. The 12:30 UTC US GDP beat then extended the drop to a 0.7014 day low. The NY rebound met rejection at 0.7041, a double cap with the London swing high and the 50% retracement, and late in the NY session price is back on the 0.7030 london base, flat on EMA20 and below the ema50 at 0.7036.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7025, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7036, 0.7041, 0.7068
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.7030 london base exposes the 0.7025 NY higher low; a break there reopens the 0.7014 day low
M15 close above the 0.7041 double cap (50% fib) negates the lower-high read and brings the 0.7068 asia high back into view
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC early in the Asia session could shift this read; RBA pricing (~82% for a Nov 3 hike) keeps AUD sensitive
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asian peak; NY low 0.7014, bounce capped at 0.7041.
The post-Fed spike to 0.7068 in the Asia session gave way to lower highs through London, and the US GDP beat extended the slide to the 0.7014 NY low. The NY rebound stalled at 0.7041, where the Asian low meets the 50% fib of the Asian-high-to-NY-low drop. Price is now drifting 0.7034–0.7039 after London close, between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.70245, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70462
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 Asian low breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7046 London high in play
Failure to hold the 0.7025 pullback low exposes the 0.7014 NY low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC during the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7068; NY bounce capped at 0.7041 twin highs.
The US Q3 GDP beat at 12:30 UTC extended the London slide from the 0.7068 Asian high to a 0.7014 day low. The NY rebound stalled at 0.7041, where the 50% retracement of that decline lines up with twin highs from the London session. Price is easing into the late NY low at 0.7034, sitting on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.7034, 0.70245, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70414
What it said to watch
A M15 close above the 0.7041 twin highs and the 50% retracement reopens the 0.7068 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.7034 late NY low exposes the 0.7025 higher low, then the 0.7014 day low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
17:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, V-rebound from NY low · RSI 58 · price 0.70379
Higher-low chain from 0.7014, capped at the broken Asian low.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.7041, and the US GDP beat with in-line core PCE extended the slide to a 0.7014 session low early in NY hours. A V-shaped rebound has since retested the asian low and been rejected there, with the higher low at 0.7025 and swing low at 0.7034 holding into late NY; RSI(14) is near 58 and price sits around the 38.2–50% asia-ny fib.
Support: 0.70338, 0.70245, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70414, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7041 asian low reclaims the Asian range and exposes the 0.7046 london high
Break of the 0.7034 swing low ends the higher-low chain and puts the 0.7025 higher low back in play
Loss of 0.7025 reopens the 0.7014 session low
0.7068 asian high (one-month high) remains the upper cap of the 24h range
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; NY rebound capped at 0.7041 London high.
London broke below the Asian range low and the US Q3 GDP beat extended the slide to a 0.7014 day low in the first hour of NY. The bounce from there retraced the whole leg back to 0.7041, the London high and broken Asian low, where it was rejected. Price now sits near EMA50 after London close, with RSI(14) at about 60.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7041 london high puts price back inside the Asian range, with 0.7068 asian high next
Failure to hold the 0.7025 higher low (61.8% of the NY rebound) points back to the 0.7014 day low
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could reprice AUD during the Asia session
Lower highs from the 0.7068 Asian high; NY rebound capped at 0.7041 lower high.
AUD/USD slid from the 0.7068 Asian high through London and printed a 0.7014 session low in the first hours of NY, as the US GDP beat and lower jobless claims firmed the dollar. The NY rebound stalled at 0.7041, the prior lower high and 50% retracement of the move, and has since slipped through the rising line off the low, leaving price pinned at the EMA50 near 0.7035.
Support: 0.70325, 0.70245, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70414, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7046 london high
Failure to hold the 0.7033 higher low confirms the rebound has rolled over, putting the 0.7025 pivot lows and the 0.7014 session low back in view
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session is the next scheduled risk for this read
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asia high; higher-low chain off 0.7014 now testing the 50% retrace.
The USD bid after the US GDP beat extended the London slide from the 0.7030 London base to a 0.7014 session low. After London close the pair has recovered in a V with a higher-low chain (hl pivot 0.7033) and is now retesting the 0.7041 Asian low, which coincides with the 50% retrace of the 0.7068 Asia high to 0.7014 leg. RSI(14) is near 61, not stretched.
Support: 0.70325, 0.7030, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.70471
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7041 asian low returns price to the Asian range and puts the 61.8% fib at 0.7047 in play
Rejection at 0.7041 followed by a break of the 0.7033 hl pivot ends the higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.7030 london base
Loss of 0.7030 exposes the 0.7014 session low
Recovery toward the 0.7068 asia high only becomes relevant above 0.7047
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
16:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, sharp rebound off NY low · RSI 59 · price 0.70377
Lower highs from 0.7068 broken; higher-low chain since 14:00 UTC.
The 12:30 UTC US GDP and claims beats extended the slide from the 0.7068 asian high to a 0.7014 ny low. Price has since built higher lows along a rising trendline and is now pressing the 0.7041 50% fib, which was the London-open low before it broke. The rebound comes after London close, with RSI(14) near 59 and nothing stretched.
Support: 0.7035, 0.7030, 0.7014
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7047, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 50% fib opens the 0.7047 asian low / 61.8% retracement zone, then the 0.7068 asian high
Loss of the rising trendline near 0.7035 and the 0.7030 london low would turn the bounce into a lower high and put the 0.7014 ny low back in focus
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could shift the read in the Asia session; US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday is the next USD risk
Lower highs from 0.70675 Asia high; post-GDP low 0.70141, higher low at 0.70245.
Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.70675 Asia high, and the US GDP beat plus low claims pushed price through the 0.70300 London base to a 0.70141 session low early in NY. The bounce has set a 0.70245 higher low and is now testing the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib near 0.7035. The 0.70375 bounce high is capping, with RSI(14) back at 53.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70245, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70375, 0.70414, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70414 lower high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.70463 London high is next above
Failure to hold the 0.70245 higher low reopens the 0.70141 session low
Slip back under the 0.70300 London base puts the bounce read in doubt
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding off NY low · RSI 54 · price 0.70343
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asian high; micro higher lows since 0.7014.
The Q3 GDP beat and low jobless claims at 12:30 UTC extended the slide from the 0.7068 Asian high to a 0.7014 NY low, breaking the London low at 0.7030 along the way. Mid-NY session, price has rebounded about 20 pips on a chain of higher lows. It is now pressing the 38.2% retrace and the 0.7036 lower high, where EMA50 and the descending line also sit.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70239, 0.70141
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.7041, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7036 lower high and descending line opens the asian low at 0.7041, then the 0.7046 london high
Rejection at 0.7036 followed by a break of the 0.7024 higher low puts the 0.7014 ny low back in play
Slipping back under the 0.7030 london low would undercut the rebound structure
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC during the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asian high; higher low at 0.7025 after 0.7014 session low.
Lower highs from the 0.7068 Asian high held through London. The US GDP and claims beat in early NY extended the slide to a 0.7014 session low. The bounce is now stalling at 0.7031, where the descending trendline meets the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 0.70245, 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.70359, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7031 trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.7036 data high and 0.7041 swing high come next
Failure to hold the 0.7025 higher low reopens the 0.7014 session low and the 0.7000 psych level
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC and Friday's US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 Asian high.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.7041, and the hot US GDP and claims prints extended the slide to a 0.7014 NY low. The rebound was rejected at the 0.7031 bounce high, at the 61.8% fib and under the lower-highs trendline, and price is pinned around EMA20.
Support: 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70306, 0.70414
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7031 bounce high and lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 0.7041 Asian low is then overhead
Failure to hold the 0.7014 NY low confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 0.7000 psych level
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC could shift the read during the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7068 Asian high; bounce retesting broken London lows.
The lower-high chain from the 0.7068 Asian high (the post-Fed one-month top) extended after the US GDP beat and in-line PCE. That move printed a 0.7014 session low in the first hour of NY. The bounce is now retesting the 0.7030/31 broken low from London, which sits just under the falling trendline and between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.70414
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.7031 broken low and trendline keeps the lower-high sequence intact
An M15 close above the 0.7041 lower high breaks the intraday lower-high chain and clears the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 0.7014 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.7000 psych
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC in the Asia session could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 Asia high.
AUDUSD has unwound the post-FOMC spike from the 0.7068 Asia high. London broke the Asian range low and printed lower highs at the 0.7041 swing high. The leg after the US GDP beat and lower claims extended to the 0.7014 NY low, and the early NY bounce is stalling at the 50% retrace of that leg, just under the broken 0.7030 london low.
Support: 0.7014, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.7041, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7030 london low invalidates the retest-from-below read
Failure to hold the 0.7014 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7000 round number
Close above the 0.7041 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Asia high
ECB/Lagarde headlines today could swing USD and shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NY · RSI 31 · price 0.70194
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7068 Asian high.
The post-Fed spike topped at 0.7068 in the Asia session, and the drop from 0.7068 has run on lower highs through London. A rejection at the 0.7036 lower high on the 12:30 UTC US GDP beat and firm claims extended the slide to a 0.7014 session low. Price is now pinned just under the 0.7020 round number early in NY, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.70141, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70359
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7020 round number would signal the session low is holding
Close above the 0.7036 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend
Failure to hold the 0.7014 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych pivot
ECB decision and Lagarde today could shift USD and alter this read
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.7019
LH/LL chain from 0.7068 Asian high; post-FOMC range broken lower.
Lower highs have stepped down all day from the 0.7068 Asian high. Supply has capped each bounce, with the latest lower high at 0.7036 on the 12:30 UTC US data, where a GDP beat and firm claims added USD support. Price broke the 0.7029 fomc low into early NY and set a 0.7017 session low, with RSI(14) near 35, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.70166, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70289, 0.70359, 0.70408
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7029 fomc low would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 0.7036 lower high breaks the lower-high chain. The 0.7041 asian low sits just above it.
Failure to hold the 0.7017 session low exposes the 0.7000 round number, the pivot flagged in the AUD digest
ECB decision and Lagarde today, and AU PPI at 00:30 UTC, could shift this read
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 31 · price 0.70176
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into NY session.
AUD/USD broke the asian low at 0.7041 in London, then lost the london base near 0.7030 after the 12:30 UTC US GDP beat and lower claims, printing a fresh session low at 0.7017. Lower highs run down a descending trendline from the 0.7068 Asia peak; RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.70169, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70227, 0.70305, 0.70408
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7023 prior low would mark the latest leg as a false break
Reclaim of the 0.7030 london base breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain; 38.2% fib of the Asia-high drop sits near 0.7036
Failure to hold the 0.7017 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
ECB / Lagarde during NY hours could shift broad USD tone
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.70226
LH/LL chain from 0.7068 Asian high, 0.7030 pre-Fed base broken.
AUD/USD has fully unwound the post-Fed spike to the 0.7068 Asian high. It carved lower highs through London and broke the 0.7030 pre-Fed base after the firm US GDP and claims prints at 12:30 UTC. The session low sits at 0.7020 in the first hour of NY, and RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.7020, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.7036, 0.7046
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7036 lower high and the falling trendline would break the lower-high chain
Acceptance back above the 0.7030 pre-Fed base would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7020 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.6995 pivot
A recovery through the 0.7046 London high would also clear the 50% fib of the Asian high-to-low drop
ECB decision and Lagarde today could swing USD broadly, with US ECI due Fri 12:30 UTC
LH/LL chain from 0.7068 Asia high; FOMC-spike low taken out.
AUDUSD has kept a lower-high chain since the 0.7068 rejection in Asia. The NY-open slide on the US GDP beat and low claims broke the 0.7030 london base and the 0.7029 FOMC-spike low, printing a 0.7022 session low and erasing the post-Fed jump. RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched, and price sits under the lower highs line and the Asia-NY drop fib.
Support: 0.70223, 0.7020
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.70359, 0.70414
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.7036 data high breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance under the 0.7020 psych level extends the lower-lows toward the 0.6995 digest support
Recapture of the 0.7030 london base would turn the break into a false break; 0.7041 london high caps above
ECB decision and Lagarde today could shift the USD tone mid-NY session
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.70232
LH/LL chain from 0.7068; London base at 0.7030 broken post-PCE.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since the 0.7068 Asian high that followed the FOMC, with the 0.7056 asia lh and the 0.7041 lower high in London capping each rebound as USD firmed. The 12:30 GMT PCE/GDP bar whipsawed, then the first hour of NY sold through the 0.7030 prior base to a fresh day low at 0.7023. RSI(14) near 35 is not stretched.
Support: 0.70227, 0.7020, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.70414, 0.7056
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.7030 prior base would turn the post-PCE break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.7020 round number exposes the 0.7000 psych level
A move through the 0.7041 lower high and descending trendline negates the lower-high chain
PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed, and the ECB presser today could extend the USD move
12:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.70327
Post-FOMC rally fully unwound; LH/LL chain, back at pre-FOMC base.
The post-FOMC spike to 0.7068 in the Asian session has fully retraced as USD firmed. London broke the 0.7041 Asian low, and the pair has since posted a lower high at 0.7046 and a rejection at the 0.7041 Asian low (38.2% fib). The US PCE/GDP bar swung 0.7026–0.7036, setting a fresh session low before price settled near 0.7033, just above the 0.7030 London low.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70262, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70359, 0.70408, 0.70463
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.7026 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7000 round number
Close above the 0.7036 pce high and the 0.7041 Asian low (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline
Actual PCE/GDP prints still filtering through early NY session; a hot core PCE vs 0.3% f/c could extend the USD bid
Repeated holds of the 0.7030 London low keep the pair basing at the pre-FOMC level
Lower highs/lower lows since 0.7068 Asia high; Asian range low broken, London base swept on data bar.
The post-Fed Asia high at 0.7068 gave way to a lower-high/lower-low sequence through London. That sequence fully unwound the FOMC spike and broke the Asian low at 0.7047. The 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE bar swept under the 0.7030 London base to a 0.7026 session low and snapped back above it, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70262
Resistance: 0.70414, 0.70469
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7026 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.7020 support
M15 close above the 0.7041 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the London downtrend structure
US GDP/PCE reaction is still forming in the current bar; ECB decision later today could shift this read
Failure to hold back above the 0.7030 London base turns the data-bar sweep into a clean breakdown
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.70294
LH/LL chain from 0.70675; 0.7030 shelf broken.
The post-Fed spike to the 0.70675 day high in early Asia has fully unwound, with a lower-highs trendline capping every bounce and the dollar firming ahead of US data. The London session lost the 0.7030 broken shelf after three holds and printed a 0.70271 session low. Price sits just under that shelf heading into US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.70271, 0.7020
Resistance: 0.7030, 0.70414, 0.70675
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, minutes away, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.7030 broken shelf negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.70271 session low exposes the 0.7020 psych level
Close above the 0.70414 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 0.7047 is the 50% selloff fib
12:03 UTC
Downtrend since Asia high, basing at 0.7030 · RSI 39 · price 0.70302
Lower highs from 0.7068 into a 0.7030–0.7041 floor range.
The post-Fed spike topped at the 0.7068 Asia high, and a chain of lower highs has since pressed the pair back to the 0.7030 London low, retested three times and sitting just above the 0.7029 FOMC low. The 11:15 UTC bounce stalled at a 0.7041 lower high as USD firmed into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR is about 4.5 pips ahead of US data.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70414, 0.70463
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (about 30 min) could materially shift this read; a soft print is the digest's path back toward the 0.7068 asia high
An M15 close below the 0.7029 fomc low breaks the London floor and extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.7041 lower high and the 0.7046 london high breaks the lower-high trendline from the Asia high
Fib of the Asia high–London low drop: the 38.2% at ~0.7044 overlaps the london high
11:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, basing at 0.7030 · RSI 44 · price 0.70364
Lower highs since the 0.7068 Asian high; London low 0.7030 holding twice.
The post-Fed spike to a 0.7068 Asian high has been fully unwound as USD firmed into London, with a lower-high sequence taking price back to the 0.7030 London low, the pre-FOMC base. The late-London bounce was rejected at a 0.7041 lower high, under the 38.2% retracement, and price sits just below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.7030
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7046, 0.7068
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and Sep PCE at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) can materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7030 London low extends the lower-low chain
Close above 0.7046 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending line
Asian high at 0.7068 caps the window; only a soft US print brings it back into view
Lower highs from Asia high; London broke Asian low, now retesting it.
Price slid from the 0.7068 Asia high as the USD steadied into US data. London then broke the Asian low near 0.7041 and set a session low at 0.7030 (london low). A late-London bounce off the 0.7035 bounce base is now retesting 0.7041 from below near the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) back to neutral at about 47.
Support: 0.70355, 0.70299
Resistance: 0.70412, 0.70463
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7046 london high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 38.2% fib near 0.7044–0.7049 into view
Rejection at the 0.7041 asian low and a loss of the 0.7035 bounce base put the 0.7030 london low back in play, with 0.7020 below
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read; expect ATR (~4 pips) to expand
11:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the post-FOMC high, now bouncing · RSI 47 · price 0.70405
Lower highs from the 0.7068 Asian high, a 0.7030 double bottom in London, and a descending trendline break.
The post-FOMC spike made a 0.7068 Asian high. A steady USD recovery then drove lower highs into a 0.7030 London low, which printed twice. The last two bars broke the descending trendline and are retesting the 0.7041 Asian low from below, with ATR around 4 pips ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7020
Resistance: 0.70413, 0.70463
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7046 London high reclaims the Asian low and brings the 50% fib at 0.7049 into play
A move back below the 0.7030 London low negates the double bottom and exposes the 0.7020 round number
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read and expand the range
The 0.7068 Asian high remains the session cap above
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing at 0.7030 · RSI 41 · price 0.70361
Lower highs since Asia; London held flat lows near 0.7030.
AUD/USD has given back nearly the whole post-FOMC rally from the 0.7029 fomc low to the 0.7068 Asia high as USD firmed ahead of US data. London broke the asian low at 0.7041, and four tests of the 0.7030 london low have held. A late-London bounce is now pressing the lower-highs line and ema20 near 0.7038, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70377, 0.70408, 0.70463
What it said to watch
A close above the lower-highs line and ema20 near 0.7038 would end the run of lower highs and put the 0.7041 asian low back in play.
A break above the 0.7046 london high would undo the London range break.
Failure to hold the 0.7030 london low exposes the 0.7029 fomc low and a full retracement of the fomc rally.
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, about 90 minutes out, could materially shift this read.
10:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, stalling at lows · RSI 31 · price 0.70314
Lower highs since 0.7068, tight 3-pip base near 0.7030.
The post-FOMC spike faded after rejection at the 0.7068 Asia high. The Asian range break at 05:45 UTC extended through London as the USD firmed into US data, fully unwinding the move back to the pre-Fed zone. Mid-London, price is compressing above the 0.7030 session low on a 4-pip ATR with RSI near 31, capped by the lower highs trendline.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70267, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70463, 0.7058
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR suggests compressed conditions ahead of the release
M15 close below the 0.7030 session low and the 0.7027 pre-fed low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaiming the 0.7046 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline; the 0.7058 post-fed hi and 0.7068 Asia high sit above
Lower highs since the Asia high; tight floor at 0.7030.
The post-FOMC rally topped at the 0.7068 asian high. London then broke the Asian range and ground lower in a chain of lower highs as USD firmed into US data. Price has held a london low near 0.7030 for six bars with RSI(14) near 28, and the pre-Fed prior low at 0.7027 sits just beneath.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70267, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.70463
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and Sep core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7027 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7000 round number
Reclaiming the 0.7042 lower high and the 0.7046 london high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Asian high at 0.7068 marks the top of the 24h range and the fib anchor
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asian high; basing at 0.7030 session low.
AUD/USD has fully unwound the post-FOMC rally. The Asia push to a 0.7068 monthly high failed, London broke the 0.7047 Asian low, and the pair has ground out lower highs as the USD firmed ahead of GDP/PCE. Price is now flat at the 0.7030 session low, back at pre-Fed levels, with RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70246
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7047
What it said to watch
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7030 session low exposes the 0.7025 pre-fed low
Reclaim of the 0.7038 london low and the lower-high trendline breaks the downtrend sequence
0.7047 asian low near the fib 38.2% of the post-Fed high-to-low drop is the bounce ceiling to monitor
Lower highs since the Asian high at 0.7068; Asian range broken lower in early Europe.
Asia set a monthly high at 0.7068. London then broke the Asian low near 0.7047 and stepped down in a chain of lower highs, unwinding the post-FOMC jump as USD firmed ahead of US data. Price is stalling at the 0.7030 session low, which is also the FOMC spike low, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 4 pips going into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.7047
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7030 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7023 prior low
Close above the 0.7042 lower high and the descending highs line breaks the London sequence; the 0.7047 Asian low, near the fib 38.2%, is the next test
09:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, momentum easing at lows · RSI 33 · price 0.70328
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; Asian range low broken in London.
The post-FOMC spike to the 0.7068 Asia high has fully unwound as USD regained ground. London broke the 0.7041 Asian low and printed a 0.7030 London low that has held three tests. Price sits under a falling trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70408, 0.70463
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.7030 London low exposes the 0.7023 24h low and the pre-FOMC base
Recovery above the 0.7041 Asian low and the 0.7046 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
38.2% fib of the Asia high-London low drop sits near 0.7045, in line with the lower high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h45m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range; post-FOMC gain fully retraced.
Mid-London, the pair has unwound the entire post-FOMC rally from the 0.7068 monthly high as USD firmed into US GDP/PCE. The 0.7041 asian low gave way and lower highs from the 0.7046 london high now press the 0.7030 london low, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7023, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7046, 0.7068
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7030 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.7023 prior low, then 0.7000 psych
Recovery back above the 0.7041 asian low and the london lower-highs trendline neutralises the intraday downtrend
A move through the 0.7046 london high would reopen the decline from the monthly high
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; London broke below the Asian range.
The post-FOMC spike has fully unwound. Price faded from the 0.70675 asian high through a string of lower highs and broke the asian low at 0.70408 in early London. It printed a 0.70307 london low and is now back at the pre-Fed base near 0.7034, with RSI(14) around 31 as the USD firms ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.70307, 0.70289, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70408, 0.70463, 0.70675
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 0.70408 asian low would undercut the London breakdown
An M15 close above the 0.70463 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.70289 fed low erases the FOMC spike and puts the 0.70231 prior low in focus; a hold at the 0.70307 london low keeps the decline paused
Recovery toward the 0.70675 asian high would require a soft PCE
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7068 Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
AUD/USD has given back most of the post-FOMC leg from 0.7029 to the 0.7068 Asian high as USD firmed ahead of US GDP/PCE. Price broke the Asian low at 0.7047 before London and printed a 0.7031 session low two hours into London. It now sits near the 78.6% retracement of that leg, with each bounce capped at a lower high, most recently 0.7042.
Support: 0.7031, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.7047, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7042 lower high breaks the descending sequence; a reclaim of the 0.7047 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.7031 session low completes the post-FOMC retrace and exposes the 0.7023 prior low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7068 Asia high; Asian range low broken in London.
The post-FOMC spike to 0.7068 in Asia has been given back through a chain of lower highs as the USD firms ahead of US GDP/PCE. London broke the Asian low at 0.7041, capped at 0.7046 (london high), and pushed price back into the pre-Fed range near 0.7035. The FOMC rally fib is now retraced beyond 78.6%, with RSI(14) near 29 and the 0.7029 fomc low next below.
Support: 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7041, 0.7046, 0.7056
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.7029 fomc low fully erases the post-Fed move and exposes the 0.7023 prior low
M15 close back above the 0.7041 asian low and the 0.7046 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 0.7056 swing high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; Asian range broken lower, post-FOMC rally unwound.
Post-FOMC gains have fully unwound. The 0.7047 Asian range low gave way late in Asia as USD firmed ahead of GDP/PCE, printing a 0.7038 session low. Early London is capped at the 0.7046 lower high on the descending trendline from the 0.7068 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.7038, 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7046, 0.7056, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7046 lower high breaks the descending trendline; fib 61.8 retracement of the Asia-high slide sits at 0.7056
Failure to hold the 0.7038 session low exposes the 0.7029 FOMC low and the 0.7023 prior low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asia high · RSI 35 · price 0.70414
Lower highs since 0.7068, Asian range broken lower.
The post-Fed spike topped at the 0.7068 Asia high, then the USD recovered and a run of lower highs (0.7056) broke the 0.7047 Asian low into 06:00 UTC. London extended to a 0.7038 low, and the 08:00 UTC bounce was rejected just under the old Asian low. RSI(14) sits near 35 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.7038, 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7047, 0.7056, 0.7068
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 0.7047 Asian low and the descending trendline negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.7038 london low exposes the 0.7029 fomc low, then the 0.7023 prior low
A reclaim of the 0.7056 lower high puts the 0.7068 asia high back in focus; the 50% fib of the Asia-London move sits near 0.7053
Asian range broken lower, early-Europe dip reversing.
AUD/USD has faded from the 0.7068 asian high, set after the Fed hold and hot AU CPI. The pair dropped through the 0.7050 asia base at 05:45 UTC as USD firmed. Early Europe briefly swept the 06:00 low to the 0.7038 europe low, near the 76.4% fib of the Fed move, and has recovered to the 61.8% fib at 0.7044, with the descending line and the 0.7046 europe high capping into London open.
Support: 0.7038, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7046, 0.7050, 0.7068
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7050 asia base negates the Asian range-break read
A close below the 0.7038 europe low exposes the 0.7029 fed low
Price holding under the descending line keeps the lower-high sequence from 0.7068 intact
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 0.70411
Post-Fed spike fully unwound; back inside pre-Fed range below 0.7050.
The Fed-hold spike and the 0.7068 Asia high have fully retraced. Supply capped price along a line of lower highs, the late-Asia break of the 0.7050 asia shelf followed, and London open extended to a 0.7038 london low as USD firmed ahead of US data. Price now sits just under the 0.7045 pre-fed high, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.7038, 0.70289, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70453, 0.7050
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the 0.7050 asia shelf and the lower-highs line negates the late-Asia breakdown
Failure to hold the london low at 0.7038 exposes the fed low at 0.7029 and the 0.7023 range low
The 38.2–50% Asia high–London low retrace (0.7049–0.7053) overlaps the asia shelf; a reclaim of 0.7068 asia high needed to reverse the structure
Double top broken, lower highs below the Asian high.
AUD/USD has given back nearly all of the post-Fed spike. A double top at 0.7064–0.7068 broke below its 0.7047 neckline late in Asia as the USD firmed ahead of US data. Early London printed a marginal new london low at 0.7039 under the Asian range, with the descending trendline from the asian high capping at the 0.7046 london high. RSI(14) sits near 38, not stretched, and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70388, 0.70289, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70461, 0.70556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7046 london high and the descending trendline would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7039 london low exposes the 0.7029 fed low, near the double-top measured move, with the 0.7023 swing low below
Recovery through the 0.7056 lower high, near the 50% of the decline fib, reopens the 0.7068 asian high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7068 Asia high; Asian range floor broken lower.
The post-Fed rally peaked at 0.7068 (Asia high) early in Asia. Price then printed lower highs and broke the 0.7047 Asian low before London open, setting a 0.7041 session low near the 61.8% retrace of the FOMC rally. Price is now retesting the broken Asian low from below as USD firms into US data.
Support: 0.70408, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70468
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7047 Asian low invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.7041 session low exposes the 0.7029 FOMC low
A break of the lower-highs trendline near 0.7045 would end the Asia-session descent
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
London open within the hour may set the session's first directional test of 0.7041–0.7047
The post-Fed rally from the 0.7029 Fed low topped at the 0.7068 Asian high, then faded on a run of Asian lower highs as USD recovered in Asia. The 05:45 UTC break of the 0.7050 Asian low ran to a 0.7041 session low, near the 61.8% fib of the Fed move. Price sits below EMA20/EMA50 heading into London open, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.70408, 0.7035, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.7050
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.7050 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure at the 0.7041 session low exposes the 0.7035 pre-Fed base, then the 0.7029 Fed low
An M15 close above the Asian lower-highs line breaks the fade structure
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 32 · price 0.70419
Broke below Asian range low, pausing at session low ahead of London open.
The post-Fed bid faded through Asia: the 0.7068 asian high was rejected at 01:15 UTC, and a lower-high sequence followed. Price broke the 0.7047 asian low in the last hour of Asia and is holding at the 0.7041 session low as London open approaches, with RSI(14) near 32 and not yet stretched.
Support: 0.70408, 0.70289, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.7047, 0.70542
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7047 asian low would negate the range break; the 50% fib at 0.7054 sits above that
Failure to hold the 0.7041 session low exposes the 0.7029 fed low, then the 0.7023 prior low
Lower-high trendline from the 0.7068 asian high still defines the descent; a break above it invalidates the downtrend read
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) in the NY session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high, Asian range low broken.
The post-Fed bid faded through the Asia session. A rejection at the 0.7068 Asia high was followed by lower highs, and the last two bars broke the 0.7047 Asia low to 0.7041. That retraces about two-thirds of the Fed move as the dollar recovered. Price is now back at the pre-fed base near 0.7035–0.7045 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 0.7035, 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7047, 0.7058, 0.7068
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.7047 (asia low) would turn the break into a false break; the 0.7058 post-fed cap and lower-highs line sit above
Failure to hold the 0.7035 pre-fed base exposes the 0.7029 fed low and the 0.7023 day low, near the digest's 0.7020 support
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
After the dovish-read Fed hold pushed AUDUSD from the 0.7029 fed low to a 0.7068 Asian high, the Asia session printed lower highs at 0.7058 and 0.7056. The last bar closed below the 0.7047 range floor that had held since the Fed. Price is sitting on the 50% retrace of that leg, with RSI(14) near 36 ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.70453, 0.70289, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70468, 0.70556
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7047 range floor marks the break as false
Failure to hold the 0.7045 pre-fed high, near the 61.8% fib, exposes the 0.7029 fed low and then the 0.7023 prior low
A close above the 0.7056 lower high breaks the Asia trendline sequence
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
The Fed-hold USD selloff lifted AUD from the 0.7029 fed low. The Asia-session extension to the 0.70675 asian high was rejected inside a bar, and price has since printed a lower high each hour (0.7061 range top, then 0.70556). Late Asia, ahead of London open, price is pinned near the 0.7050 range floor at the 38.2% retrace of the fed rally, RSI(14) around 43 and ATR about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.70497, 0.7047, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70556, 0.70609, 0.70675
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.70497 range floor opens the 0.7047 asian low and the 50% fib of the fed rally near 0.7048
A close above the 0.70556 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.7061 range top back in play
Re-acceptance above the 0.70675 asian high would resume the post-Fed advance toward the 0.7070 area
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could break this range in either direction
A deeper unwind below 0.7047 brings the 0.7029 fed low into view
Lower highs compressing into a flat 0.7050 range floor.
The Fed-presser USD dip lifted AUD/USD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 pre-Fed range. The early-Asia push to a 0.7067 session high was rejected within a bar, and lower highs since then have squeezed price against a 0.7050 range floor. RSI(14) sits near 43 and ATR is about 3.6 pips heading into London open, with the 0.7047 asian low still intact.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7047
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7067
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 range floor and the 0.7047 asian low would break the post-Fed consolidation
Close above the 0.7058 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.7067 session high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London open liquidity is the first test of whether the range floor holds
05:17 UTC
Post-Fed uptrend, momentum stalled in Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.70538
Tight consolidation below rejected session high, lower highs over 0.7050.
The soft-USD reaction to the Fed hold broke AUDUSD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 pre-Fed range. The Asian session high at 0.70675 was rejected, and late in the Asia session price is compressing between the 0.7050 Asian floor and a 0.7058 lower high, with the floor holding near the 38.2% fib of the post-Fed leg. RSI(14) sits neutral near 46 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7047
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 Asian floor exposes the 0.7047 Asian low and the 50% fib near 0.7048
M15 close above the 0.7058 lower high reopens the 0.70675 session high
London open in under 2h may resolve the Asian compression
US PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.70675 session high, compressing onto 0.7050.
The Fed hold lifted AUDUSD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 pre-FOMC range to a 0.70643 fomc high. Asia pushed on to a 0.70675 session high, which was rejected in one bar. Since then lower highs have pressed price onto the 0.7050 round number, at the 78.6% retrace of the Asian leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR is a quiet ~4 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.7050, 0.70468, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.70643, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7050 and the 0.70468 asian low exposes the 0.70289 fomc low
Close above the 0.7058 lower highs trendline reopens 0.70643 fomc high and the 0.70675 session high
US Q3 GDP / core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
04:48 UTC
Post-Fed range, lower highs fading into late Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.70513
Lower highs pressing a 0.7050 shelf inside the post-Fed range.
AUD/USD spiked from the 0.7029 Fed low to the 0.7064 Fed high during the press conference after Warsh's 'tightening is working' comment softened the USD. Early Asia then rejected a 0.70675 session high within one bar. Since then, lower highs have pressed price onto a 0.7050 shelf, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian swing, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 4–5 pips.
Support: 0.7050, 0.70469, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70552, 0.70643, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 shelf exposes the 0.7047 Asian low; losing that confirms a lower-low within the post-Fed range
Close above the lower highs trendline near 0.7055 reopens the 0.7064 Fed high and the 0.70675 session high
London open in ~3h is the first test of the late-Asia compression
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read; a break of the 0.7029 Fed low would fully unwind the post-decision spike
Lower highs off 0.7068 Asia high, pressing the 0.7050 floor.
The Fed-hold spike lifted AUD/USD off the 0.7029 fed low, and Asia extended to a 0.7068 asia high before a sharp rejection. A descending trendline of lower highs has since pressed price back to the 0.7050 swing low, under the ema20, sitting on EMA50 and between the 38.2% and 50% of the post-Fed leg; RSI(14) is neutral at 47 with ATR near 4 pips late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7047, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7053, 0.7058
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 session low breaks the post-Fed higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.7029 fed low
Close above the descending trendline and the 0.7058 lower high reopens the 0.7068 asia high
London open liquidity could resolve the tight 0.7050–0.7058 squeeze
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs under 0.7068 Asia high, 0.7047 base holding.
The Fed-hold spike off the 0.7029 fed low extended to a 0.7068 asia high, which was rejected straight back to 0.7054. Late in the Asia session price is chopping between the 0.7050 intraday low and a 0.7061 lower high, still below the 0.7064 post-Fed high and sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Fed move, with the 0.7047 asia low held twice.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7047, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70609, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 asia low and 50% fib exposes the 61.8% near 0.7044, then the fed low at 0.7029
Close above the 0.7061 lower high reopens the 0.7064 post-Fed high and 0.7068 asia high
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 0.7068 rejection, coiling above 0.7050.
The softer-USD Fed reaction lifted AUD from 0.7029 to a 0.7064 Fed high. Asia then extended to a 0.7068 session high at 01:15 UTC, where it was rejected. Lower highs since are compressing price onto the 0.7050 micro low and the 38.2% retracement of the post-Fed leg, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and the dollar bouncing on oil-driven inflation worries.
Support: 0.7050, 0.70468, 0.70436
Resistance: 0.70579, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 micro low exposes the 0.7047 asian low and the 0.7044 61.8% fib of the post-Fed leg
Close above the 0.7058 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.7064 fed high and the 0.7068 session high
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia rejection, compressing in 0.7050–0.7058 band.
The Fed hold and a soft USD reaction to Warsh's press conference lifted AUDUSD from 0.7029 to a post-Fed hi of 0.7064 during NY hours. Early Asia pushed to an asian high of 0.70675, but that move was rejected inside one bar. Mid-Asia session now sees price pinned near EMA20 at the 38.2% fib (0.7053), with lower highs pressing on a 0.7050 range floor.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7047, 0.7045
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 range floor exposes the 0.7047 asian low and the 0.7045 pre-fed high
Close above the 0.7058 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens 0.7064–0.70675
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.7050 floor inside the Asian range.
The softer USD after the Fed hold lifted the pair to a 0.7064 post-Fed hi. An early-Asia push to the 0.7068 Asian high was a false break and reversed within one bar. Mid-Asia, a lower high chain (0.7061, then 0.7058) is compressing onto the 0.7050 intraday low, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the post-Fed rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.7050, 0.7047, 0.70453
Resistance: 0.70579, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 intraday low exposes the 0.7047 Asian low and the 50% fib
Failure at the 0.7045 pre-fed high puts price back inside the pre-Fed range
M15 close above the 0.7058 lower high breaks the trendline and reopens the 0.7064 post-fed hi and 0.7068 Asian high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidation 0.7047–0.7064 above the pre-Fed range; Asian spike to 0.7068 rejected.
The softer USD after the Fed hold, on top of the hot-CPI bid, lifted AUDUSD out of its 0.7023–0.7045 range to a 0.7058 post-fed cap. Since then price has been contained under the 0.7064 post-fed high. Mid-Asia session, a spike to a 0.7068 asian high was rejected and price is back at the 38.2% fib of the post-Fed leg near 0.7053, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.7053, 0.7047, 0.7045
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064, 0.7068
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 asian low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 0.7045 pre-fed high
Acceptance back above the 0.7058 post-fed cap and the 0.7064 post-fed high puts the 0.7068 asian high back in play
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation 0.7053–0.7061 after rejection at session high, higher lows from Asian low.
AUD/USD is holding the post-Fed lift above 0.7050 as the dollar's post-presser dip stays intact. Asia session spiked to a session high at 0.7068, was rejected back into a tight 0.7053–0.7061 band, and rising lows off the 0.7047 Asian low keep the range floor aligned with the post-Fed fib 38.2%.
Support: 0.7053, 0.7047, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7061, 0.70643, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7061 range cap and 0.7064 post-fed high reopens the 0.7068 session high, the top of the 0.7055–0.7070 resistance band
Break of the 0.7053 range floor and rising lows exposes the 0.7047 Asian low, then the 0.7029 Fed bar low near the 50–61.8% retracement
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The Fed hold and softer USD after Warsh's presser broke the 0.7023–0.7045 range, leaving the pre-fed high as the base. In mid-Asia session the spike to the 0.7068 asia high was rejected. Price is compressing between the 0.7053 swing low (38.2% fib) and the 0.7061 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.70528, 0.70468, 0.70453
Resistance: 0.70609, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7053 swing low exposes the 0.7047 asian low and the 50% fib
Close above the 0.7061 lower high reopens the 0.7068 asia high and the 0.7070 band
Break of the asia rising lows trendline weakens the post-Fed structure
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.7047–0.7068 after a false break above the post-Fed high.
The 18:30 UTC Warsh presser lifted the pair out of the 0.7023–0.7045 range. The Asia session has since held a 0.7047–0.7068 range. The 01:15 UTC push above the 0.7064 post-Fed high to a 0.70675 session high was rejected into the 0.7060/0.7070 resistance band, leaving a 0.7061 lower high, while a 0.7053 higher low holds above the 0.7047 Asian low. Mid-Tokyo, price is sitting on EMA20 and the 61.8% retracement of the Asia leg fib near 0.7055, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.70528, 0.7047
Resistance: 0.70609, 0.70675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7053 higher low puts the 0.7047 Asian low back in play; a break there undoes the post-Fed range
Close above the 0.7061 lower high reopens a test of the 0.70675 session high and the 0.7070 resistance
London open could break the Asian range
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Post-Fed uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.70546
Asian range 0.7047–0.7068 above the 0.7045 breakout base.
The softer USD after the Fed hold drove a breakout from the 0.7030–0.7045 range. In Asia, price spiked to an asian high of 0.7068 and was rejected back below the 0.7064 post-fed hi. It now sits near 0.7055, the 38.2% of the post-Fed fib off the 0.7029 fed low, with the asian low at 0.7047 holding on two tests.
Support: 0.7047, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7064, 0.70675, 0.7070
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.7047 asian low breaks the Asia base and exposes the 0.7029 fed low
Recovery through the 0.7064 post-fed hi and the 0.7068 asian high brings the 0.7070 round number into play
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-FOMC breakout holding; Asia range 0.7047–0.7067 with a higher low at 0.7053.
The Warsh press conference broke AUD/USD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 London/NY range, with the old range top now well below price. In the Asia session the pair spiked to a session high at 0.70675, was rejected back to the 38.2% fib at 0.7053, and has rebounded to 0.7058. RSI(14) is neutral at 56 and the asian low at 0.7047 is intact.
Support: 0.70528, 0.7047, 0.7045
Resistance: 0.70675, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70675 session high opens the 0.7070 round number, flagged as major resistance
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.7053 exposes the asian low at 0.7047, then the 0.7045 range top
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
0.7046–0.7064 range since Fed; false break to 0.7068 in Asia.
Warsh's press conference lifted AUD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 pre-Fed range, and the 0.7046–0.7064 range has held since. The Asia session push to a 0.7068 session high after today's import-price miss failed above the NY high and reversed in one bar. Price is back near the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib at 0.7055, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 0.7047, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7064
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7068 session high negates the false-break read
Loss of the 0.7047 asian low, which sits on the old pre-Fed high, reopens the 0.7029 fed spike lo
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could reset the post-Fed range
Post-FOMC 0.7047–0.7064 range broken higher in Asia; retest of the FOMC high underway.
The Asia session broke out of the post-FOMC range, clearing the 0.7064 FOMC high to a session high at 0.70675. AUD is still carrying the hot CPI and the softer USD after Warsh. Price is now dipping back to retest the FOMC high, with 0.7070 major resistance just overhead and RSI(14) cooling to about 61.
Support: 0.70643, 0.70574, 0.7047
Resistance: 0.70675, 0.7070
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the fib 50% of the Asian leg at 0.7057 would turn the breakout into a false break
A close above 0.7070 major resistance would extend the session high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7047 Asian low would put price back inside the post-FOMC range
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Post-breakout range 0.7047–0.7064, twin lows forming a base.
USD slipped after the Fed hold, and AUD/USD broke above the 0.7045 pre-Fed high to a 0.7064 Fed high before consolidating. The Asia session dip held twin lows at 0.7047, near the 50% retrace of the post-Fed leg, then printed a 0.7049 higher low. The current bar is pressing the 0.7058 post-Fed cap, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.7049, 0.7047, 0.7045
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7064 Fed high extends the post-Fed breakout toward 0.7070
Rejection at the 0.7058 post-Fed cap keeps the 0.7047–0.7064 range intact
Loss of the 0.7049 higher low and 0.7047 twin lows reopens the 0.7045 pre-Fed high
US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Post-Fed spike, now fading into Asia range · RSI 44 · price 0.70495
Lower highs from 0.7064; Asia range 0.7047–0.7057.
The Fed hold and softer USD drove a spike from 0.7029 to the fed high at 0.7064. Price has since faded into a 10-pip Asia session range, with the Asia low at 0.7047 holding twice and the Asia high at 0.7057 marking another lower high. Price sits at the 38.2% retrace of the Fed leg near 0.7050, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.7047, 0.7042
Resistance: 0.7057, 0.7064
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 asia low takes out the double low and exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.7042
Close above the 0.7057 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.7064 fed high
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Post-Fed leg higher, now consolidating · RSI 46 · price 0.70504
Asia range 0.7047–0.7057 below the 0.7064 post-Fed high.
USD softness after Warsh's press conference lifted AUD/USD from the 0.7029 fed spike low to a 0.7064 post-Fed high, clearing the pre-Fed range top near 0.7045. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.7047–0.7057 range at the 38.2% retrace of the Fed move, with lower highs off 0.7064 and a rejection at the Asia high.
Support: 0.7047, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7057, 0.7064, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 Asia low exposes the 50–61.8% retrace and the 0.7029 fed spike low
Close above the 0.7057 Asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7064 post-Fed high, then 0.7070 resistance
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Post-Fed uptrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.70482
Asian range 0.7047–0.7057 below 0.7064 post-Fed high.
The less-hawkish-than-feared Fed hold lifted AUDUSD from the 0.7029 spike low to a 0.7064 post-Fed high. Early Asia session is now range-bound between the 0.7057 Asian high and the 0.7047 post-Fed low, with price back on that floor and on the 38.2% fib of the 0.7023–0.7064 leg, below EMA20.
Support: 0.70465, 0.70437, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7057, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 post-Fed low opens the fib 50% at 0.7044, then the 0.7029 spike low
Reclaim of the 0.7057 Asian high puts the 0.7064 post-Fed high and the post-Fed highs trendline back in play
US core PCE and GDP in ~12h could materially shift this read
Breakout above 0.7054, shallow pullback held, tight Asia range below post-Fed high.
The USD sell-the-fact after the Fed hold drove AUDUSD through the 0.7054 CPI spike high during NY hours to a 0.7064 post-fed high. The late-NY pullback to 0.7047 held just above the pre-Fed high, near the 38.2% fib, and early Asia is back at 0.7055. ATR has compressed to about 5 pips since rollover.
Support: 0.70468, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70643, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 pullback low reopens the pre-Fed range toward the 0.7023 day low
Break of the 0.7064 post-fed high brings 0.7070 major res into play
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC, then Aus PPI, could materially shift this read