AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Post-FOMC breakout, now consolidating · RSI 53 · price 0.7053
Broke the 0.7023–0.7045 day range on the Fed; holding 0.7047–0.7058 below the 0.7064 NY high.
A sell-the-fact USD dip after the Fed hold lifted AUD/USD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 day range. The NY high printed at 0.7064, then price faded to a late low of 0.7047 into the rollover. Early Asia is holding a tight band under the 0.7058 spike high, with price above EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.70469, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7047 late low puts the 38.2–50% retrace of the london low–ny high leg in play; failure there exposes the 0.7029 FOMC spike low
Acceptance above the 0.7058 spike high reopens a test of the 0.7064 NY high
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Post-Fed breakout, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 0.7053
Tight post-Fed range 0.7047–0.7064 above the pre-Fed range top.
The softer USD after the Fed hold drove a breakout from the 0.7023–0.7045 range to a 0.7064 session high, with the spike highs near 0.7058 capping repeated tests. Into early Asia, the 23:00 UTC dip held at the 0.7047 post-Fed low, close to the fib 38.2% of the 0.7023–0.7064 leg. RSI is neutral near 47 and ATR is compressed around 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.7047, 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064
What it said to watch
Aus PPI at 00:30 UTC (~1h) could break the post-Fed range
M15 close below the 0.7047 post-fed low and fib 38.2% exposes the 0.7029 spike low
Close above the 0.7058 spike highs and 0.7064 session high extends the breakout
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.7023 day low marks the base of the pre-Fed range
23:17 UTC
Post-FOMC spike, retracing into early Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.7049
The USD selloff after the Fed hold drove a spike from the 0.7029 FOMC low to a 0.7064 session high, where price was rejected. Since then it has drifted lower under the 0.7058 post-Fed cap and is now sitting on the 0.7047 post-Fed low, which aligns with the 50% fib of the FOMC leg, in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.7047, 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7047 post-Fed low opens the 61.8% fib near 0.7042, then the 0.7029 FOMC low
Recovery above the 0.7058 post-Fed cap reopens the 0.7064 session high
London low at 0.7023 marks the full unwind of the Fed move
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~13h) could materially shift this read
AU Q3 PPI Fri 00:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific print
Lower highs from 0.7064 Fed high, retesting the pre-Fed high.
The post-FOMC USD selloff lifted AUDUSD from the 0.7029 presser wick to a 0.7064 Fed high. Lower highs since then have walked price back to the 0.7045 pre-Fed high in thin post-NY trade, below EMA20 and just above EMA50, near the 50% fib of the London low-to-Fed high leg. The 0.7055 CPI high from the Asian session now sits overhead.
Support: 0.7045, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7055, 0.7064
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.7045 pre-fed high retraces most of the FOMC leg and puts the 0.7023 London low back in view
Recovery through the lower-highs trendline and the 0.7055 CPI high reopens the 0.7064 Fed high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP in ~14h, and AU Q3 PPI Fri 00:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Post-Fed leg higher, stalling late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.70504
Breakout above CPI high, now consolidating 0.7046–0.7064.
The Fed hold and the USD sell-off that followed lifted AUDUSD through the 0.7054 CPI high, reaching a 0.7064 session high in late NY. Price has since slipped back below that CPI high to 0.7050 in thin post-close trade. The 0.7046 post-Fed low has held on dips so far, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 44.
Support: 0.70457, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70539, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7046 post-Fed low exposes the 61.8% fib of the day low to session high move near 0.7039
Reclaim of the 0.7054 CPI high, then 0.7064 session high, resumes the post-Fed advance
Loss of the 0.7023 day low would unwind the entire Fed move
Q3 PPI Fri 00:30 UTC and US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Uptrend after Fed, now flat · RSI 56 · price 0.70519
Post-breakout consolidation above the prior day range, holding 0.7050 floor.
Warsh's presser was read as USD-negative and lifted AUD out of the 0.7023–0.7054 range set by the CPI spike and the London low, printing a session high at 0.7064 before price stalled under the 0.7058 spike high. Since NY hours price has compressed into a 0.7050–0.7058 band through the thin rollover. The range floor sits on the 38.2% retracement of the post-Fed leg, RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) has eased toward 5 pips.
Support: 0.7050, 0.70455, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 range floor exposes the pre-fed high at 0.7045 and the 50% retracement
Clearing the 0.7058 spike high reopens the 0.7064 session high and the 0.7060–0.7080 resistance cluster
Loss of the 0.7029 fed low would unwind the post-Fed breakout
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Asia liquidity likely thin until then
Tight 0.7050–0.7058 range below the 0.7064 Fed high, above the CPI-spike high.
Warsh's presser read as USD-negative. The 18:30 UTC bar swept the spike low at 0.7029, then reversed through the Asian CPI high near 0.7054 to a fed high of 0.7064. That high met rejection, and price has since compressed between a range low near 0.7050 and a range top at 0.7058 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.7050, 0.70457, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70584, 0.70643, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7050 range low exposes the 0.7046 fed low and the 38.2% of the post-Fed leg near 0.7049
Loss of the 0.7046 fed low reopens the 0.7029 spike low
Close above the 0.7058 range top retests the 0.7064 fed high, with the 0.7070 res cluster beyond
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC (~2h) in early Asia session could break the current range
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Uptrend after Fed, consolidating near highs · RSI 57 · price 0.7056
Post-Fed breakout above Asian high, tight shelf 0.7050–0.7058.
Warsh's presser was read as USD-negative. The move swept from the 0.7029 presser low through the Asian CPI high near 0.7054 and topped at the 0.7064 Fed high. Since then price has held a tight 0.7050–0.7058 shelf into the thin post-NY rollover, with the fib 38.2 at 0.7051 respected. RSI(14) sits near 57 and ATR is compressing to about 6 pips.
Support: 0.7051, 0.70457, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.70643, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7058 shelf top re-opens the 0.7064 Fed high, and a break there puts the 0.7070 round number in play
Failure to hold the 0.7051 fib 38.2 and then the 0.7046 post-fed low would fade the breakout and expose the 0.7029 presser low
US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after the Fed spike · RSI 63 · price 0.70534
Post-Fed range 0.7051–0.7064 above the pre-Fed high.
Warsh's presser lifted AUD/USD through the pre-Fed high at 0.7045, extending the climb from the London low at 0.7023 to a session high at 0.7064. The pair has since held a tight range in thin post-NY trade, with supply capping near 0.7058 (the post-Fed cap) and the post-Fed low at 0.7051 holding. The overnight CPI high near 0.7054 sits in the middle of that range.
Support: 0.7051, 0.70453, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.70643, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7051 post-fed low exposes the 0.7045 pre-fed high and the 38.2% retracement near 0.7049
Clearing the 0.7058 post-fed cap and the 0.7064 session high brings the 0.7070 round number into view
Asia session open may set a fresh range with ATR compressed near 7 pips
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Breakout above the pre-Fed range; tight 0.7051–0.7058 box below the Fed high.
Warsh's presser was read as USD-negative, and it lifted AUD out of the 0.7023–0.7045 range during NY hours to a fed high at 0.7064. The Asian CPI spike had faded from 0.7054 to a london low at 0.7023 before the Fed. Since then, rising lows from the 0.7046 pullback low to the 0.7051 post-fed low have held under the 0.7058 spike highs. Activity has gone thin after the NY close, with price parked at the 0.7054 CPI high.
Support: 0.7051, 0.7046, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7051 post-fed low breaks the rising post-fed lows line and shifts the read to a deeper pullback
Loss of the 0.7046 pullback low puts the 38.2% fib near 0.7049 behind price and exposes the 50% around 0.7044
Clearance of the 0.7058 spike highs and the 0.7064 fed high opens the 0.7070 round number
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC Thu (~3h) could move price during the Asia session
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Warsh's 18:30 UTC presser read as USD-negative and drove a range break above the CPI-spike Asian high at 0.7054. Price printed a 0.7064 session high, then settled into a 0.7046–0.7058 band late in NY. It is now retesting the Asian high with RSI(14) near 62. The post-Fed cap at 0.7058 has held every close since the spike.
Support: 0.7054, 0.7046, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7046 fed pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range
Close above the 0.7064 session high exposes the 0.7070 round number
Loss of the 0.7023 london low would erase the full london low to session high leg
Thin post-NY liquidity into Asia; US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC and AU PPI on 30 Oct could shift this read
Post-FOMC breakout above the CPI spike high; tight 0.7051–0.7058 hold.
The Fed hold with two hike dissents lifted AUD/USD through the Asia CPI spike high of 0.7054 to a 0.7064 fomc high, which saw rejection. Spike highs at 0.7058 have capped three bars since. Price is holding the 0.7051 swing low into late NY, with the post-fed low at 0.7046 sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 0.7023 day low to 0.7064 move.
Support: 0.7051, 0.7046, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7064, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7064 fomc high opens the 0.7070 major res flagged in the macro context
Loss of 0.7046 post-fed low puts the 50% fib near 0.7044 and the pre-Fed range back in play
Australia PPI Thu 00:30 UTC (~4h, no forecast) during the Asia session could shift the read
US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC is the next major driver for USD
20:32 UTC
Post-FOMC upleg, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 0.70513
Broke Asian high on FOMC, now retesting it.
The hot AU CPI set the Asian high at 0.70539, and the Fed hold drove a breakout through it to a 0.70643 session high. That high was rejected and price slipped back to 0.7051, near the 38.2% level of the fomc fib, with the 0.70488 pullback low and the 0.70453 pre-fed high below.
Support: 0.70488, 0.70453, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70539, 0.70584, 0.70643
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.70488 pullback low and 0.70453 pre-fed high turns the Asian high breakout into a false break
Reclaim of 0.70584 fomc highs reopens the 0.70643 session high
AU PPI at 00:30 UTC (~4h) and US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~16h) could materially shift this read
Loss of the fomc fib 50% near 0.7047 exposes the 0.70289 fomc low
Higher lows since London low; Asia CPI high broken, wick rejection at 0.7064.
The Fed hold read less hawkish than feared. Price swept the fed dip low at 0.7029, then ran through the Asia cpi high at 0.7054. The post-fed low at 0.7046 held near the 50% fib, and the late NY push to the 0.7064 session high was rejected on a wick. RSI(14) is near 65, and rising lows from the London low remain intact.
Support: 0.7054, 0.7046, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7064, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7054 cpi high puts price back inside the pre-Fed range
Break of the 0.7046 post-fed low exposes the 0.7029 fed dip low and the rising lows line
Close above the 0.7064 session high opens the 0.7070 major res area
US core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) and Australia PPI early Asia could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high in late NY · RSI 67 · price 0.70607
Higher lows from London low; post-FOMC range broken to the upside.
The post-FOMC whipsaw on the 18:30 UTC bar (0.7029–0.7058) resolved higher. Late NY has printed a new session high at 0.7062, clearing the Asian CPI spike high at 0.7054, and the higher-lows chain from the London low at 0.7023 is intact. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.7058, 0.7046, 0.7029
Resistance: 0.7062, 0.7070
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.7058 fomc high returns price to the 0.7046–0.7058 post-FOMC range
A break of the 0.7046 range low exposes the 0.7029 fomc low and the higher-lows trendline
0.7062 session high and 0.7070 psych level are areas to watch for rejection or extension
Australia PPI (Thu 00:30 UTC, Asia session) and US GDP/core PCE (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Breakout above CPI spike high, retesting from above.
The Fed hold with two hawkish dissents drove a 29-pip two-way bar at 18:30 UTC, from a 0.7029 spike low to a close above the 0.7054 hot-CPI high. Price then set a session high at 0.7058 and post-decision bars are holding above the 0.7049 swing low. The 0.7045 pre-Fed high lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 0.7023–0.7058 NY rally, and RSI(14) near 62 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.70488, 0.70455, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70584, 0.7060
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference is in progress; any explicit December hike guidance could reverse the breakout within the next few bars
M15 close back below the 0.7045 pre-Fed high puts the move back inside the NY range and reads as a false break
Acceptance above the 0.7058 session high exposes the 0.7060 round number, the cap flagged in the digest
A break of the 0.7029 spike low erases the entire FOMC reaction
Australia PPI Thu 00:30 UTC lands in the Asia session and could move RBA pricing and this structure
Broke above Asian high, consolidating just under session high.
The Fed presser whipsawed AUDUSD down to the 0.7029 presser low, then through the Asian high at 0.7054 (the hot-CPI spike) to a 0.7058 session high. The 18:45 UTC pullback stopped just above the fib 38.2 at 0.7047, and late in the NY session price is holding above the Asian high with RSI(14) near 66, short of overbought.
Support: 0.7054, 0.70471, 0.70289
Resistance: 0.70584, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 0.7054 returns price to the prior range and marks the break as a failure
Close above the 0.7058 session high exposes the 0.7070 major res
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 0.7047 opens a return toward the 0.7029 presser low
Fed presser still running and Australia PPI at 00:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.7023–0.7045 broken higher; first pullback holding prior high.
Hot AU CPI spiked the pair to 0.7054 in Asia before it faded into a 0.7023–0.7045 range. Buyers held the day low twice. The Fed hold and the Warsh presser then swept down to the 0.7029 fomc low and ripped to a new session high at 0.7058. Price is now retesting the 0.7045 prior high near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) cooling to ~62.
Support: 0.7045, 0.7029, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7070
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7045 prior high undercuts the breakout and reopens the 0.7029 fomc low
Acceptance above the 0.7058 session high opens the path to 0.7070 major res
Loss of the 0.7023 day low would negate the post-CPI range floor
Warsh presser still in progress; Australia PPI Thu 00:30 UTC and US GDP/core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Intraday higher lows since London, flat into presser · RSI 51 · price 0.70378
Higher-low chain from 0.7023, lower high after FOMC spike.
Hot Australian CPI spiked AUD to a 0.7054 cpi high in Asia, then the move faded to a 0.7023 london low before NY built higher lows up to a 0.7045 ny high. The FOMC hold bar was rejected at 0.7042 and dipped to a 0.7032 fomc low, near the 61.8% of the london-ny leg and on rising support. Price is flat at the EMA20 with RSI(14) at 51 as the Warsh presser starts.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7045, 0.7054
What it said to watch
Warsh presser now (18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; tone vs ~82% priced December hike
M15 close below the 0.7032 fomc low breaks rising support and the London-NY higher-low chain
Close above the 0.7045 ny high puts the 0.7054 cpi high back in view
Loss of the 0.7023 london low erases the whole NY recovery
ATR near 4 pips will likely expand sharply on the presser
18:17 UTC
Intraday range, NY upleg rolling over · RSI 45 · price 0.70334
Inside Asian range; NY higher-low chain broken after the Fed-bar rejection.
The hot AUD CPI spiked price to the 0.7054 cpi high in Asia. That set a range London never cleared: London dipped to the 0.7023 london low before NY built higher lows up to the 0.7045 ny high. The Fed-hold bar spiked to 0.7042 (fed spike hi) and was rejected. Price slipped back through the NY trendline into the 50–61.8% fib zone of the London–NY leg, now below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70302, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.7042, 0.70453, 0.70539
What it said to watch
Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the Fed-bar rejection came ahead of it
M15 close below 0.7030 ny swing low confirms a lower-low and puts 0.7023 london low back in focus
Recovery above 0.7042 fed spike hi negates the rejection and reopens 0.7045 ny high, with 0.7054 cpi high capping the Asian range
18:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the London low, pulling back into FOMC · RSI 55 · price 0.70366
Higher lows since 10:15 UTC; price testing the rising trendline.
The hot AU CPI spike to the 0.7054 cpi high faded through Asia. London then swept the Asian low into a 0.7023 day low, a double bottom with yesterday's low, and NY built higher lows up to a 0.7045 session high. Price is easing back to the rising trendline and the 0.7035 swing low, near 50% of the London-NY leg, as the FOMC decision lands. RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.70349, 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70453, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC can override this structure; ATR near 4 pips is likely to expand sharply
M15 close below the 0.7035 swing low and rising trendline breaks the NY higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.7030 higher low exposes the 0.7023 day low
Close above the 0.7041 swing high and 0.7045 session high reopens the 0.7054 cpi high
17:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 0.70372
NY higher-high/higher-low chain off 0.7023; pullback to 38.2% fib.
The hot AU CPI spike to the 0.7054 asian high faded through Asia. London briefly undercut the Asian range to a 0.7023 london low, a false break that reclaimed the range, before NY built higher lows up to the 0.7045 ny high. Price is pulling back to the 38.2% fib near 0.7037, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) at 3.8 pips, as USD holds firm minutes before FOMC.
Support: 0.70344, 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70453, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7034 swing low (50% fib) and the NY trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.7030 ny low puts the 0.7023 london low back in play
M15 close above the 0.7045 ny high opens the path to the 0.7054 asian high
Higher-low chain off London low, pullback from session high.
The Asia CPI spike to the 0.7054 cpi high faded. London then held 0.7023, forming a double bottom with the overnight low near the london low. NY built higher lows to a 0.7045 session high before easing to 0.7038 ahead of the Fed. The 0.7034 higher low sits on the 50% retrace of the london low–session high leg, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 0.70344, 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70453, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; expect ATR (~4 pips) to expand sharply
Break below the 0.7034 higher low exposes the 0.7030 ny low and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.7023 london low invalidates the double bottom and the NY higher-low chain
M15 close above the 0.7045 session high reopens the 0.7054 cpi high
17:17 UTC
Intraday higher lows, NY grinding up · RSI 58 · price 0.70402
HH/HL chain off London low, still inside Asian CPI range.
The hot AU CPI spike to the 0.7054 Asia high faded as USD firmed into the Fed. Demand held the 0.7023 london low, matching yesterday's 0.7023 trough. NY has since built higher lows at 0.7030 and 0.7034 into a 0.7045 ny high, with price still inside the Asian range and RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 0.70344, 0.70302, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70453, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC can easily overwhelm a ~4-pip ATR range
M15 close above the 0.7045 ny high exposes the 0.7054 asia high
Loss of the 0.7034 higher low and the 0.7030 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline
A return to the 0.7023 london low retests the double bottom floor
17:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 63 · price 0.70418
HH/HL chain off 0.7023 London low, testing session high.
The hot AU CPI print spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7054 cpi spike high in Asia before it faded. London then pushed briefly below the Asian low to the 0.7023 london low and reversed. Since then NY has built a chain of higher lows, first the 0.7030 ny low and then the 0.7034 swing low, and printed a fresh session high at 0.7045 with RSI(14) near 63, about an hour ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 0.70344, 0.70302, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70453, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~4 pips into the event
M15 close above the 0.70453 session high opens the path to the 0.70539 cpi spike high
Break below the 0.70344 swing low stalls the higher-low chain; loss of the 0.70302 ny low breaks it
Return to the 0.70231 london low would put the post-London rally fully back in question
16:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rising lows since London · RSI 60 · price 0.7039
Higher lows off 0.7023, pressing NY session high.
The hot AU CPI print spiked the pair to the 0.7054 CPI high in Asia before a fade. London's false break below the Asian low held at 0.7023, a double low with yesterday's base. NY has since printed rising lows at the 0.7030 NY low and the 0.7034 higher low, with price testing the 0.7041 session high and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.70344, 0.70302, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 session high opens the path to the 0.7054 CPI high
Loss of the 0.7034 higher low and the 0.7030 NY low breaks the rising lows chain
A close below the 0.7023 double low invalidates the intraday base
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 4 pips is likely to expand
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 64 · price 0.70407
HH/HL chain off 0.7023 double low, pressing session high.
The hot-CPI spike to the 0.7054 cpi high in Asia fully faded into a 0.7023 london low, matching yesterday's late low. A higher-low chain through NY hours has since lifted price to the 0.7041 session high, right at the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop (~0.7042), with bars compressing into FOMC.
Support: 0.70344, 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 session high and 0.7042 fib exposes the 0.7047 post-cpi high, then the 0.7054 cpi high
Break of the 0.7034 higher low stalls the chain; loss of the 0.7030 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Failure at the 0.7023 london low negates the double bottom
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, below CPI spike high · RSI 58 · price 0.70376
Higher lows from 0.7023 to 0.7030 to 0.7034; session high 0.7041 capping.
The hot AU CPI print spiked AUD/USD to 0.7054 in Asia. The move faded to a 0.7023 London low as the USD firmed into the FOMC. Since then NY has built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline, with the 0.7041 session high capping late NY trade and RSI(14) at a neutral 58.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above the 0.7041 session high opens the path to the 0.7047 post-cpi top and the 0.7054 cpi spike
A break of the rising tl and the 0.7030 ny low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.7023 london low
16:03 UTC
Intraday higher lows, pulling back off session high · RSI 54 · price 0.70349
HH/HL chain since London low, inside the Asian range.
The hot AU CPI print spiked the pair to the 0.70539 cpi high in Asia before a firm USD faded it. London briefly lost the 0.70268 asian low in a false break to the 0.70231 london low, and NY has since built higher lows up to a 0.70411 ny high. Price is easing back toward the rising trendline and the 0.70302 ny swing low, with RSI(14) near 54 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.70302, 0.70268, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.70302 ny swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.70268 asian low
50% retrace of the london-ny leg sits at 0.7032; holding it keeps the 0.70411 ny high in play
M15 close above 0.70411 opens the 0.70474 asia swing, with the 0.70539 cpi high capping the Asian range
Loss of the 0.70231 london low resolves the intraday range lower
15:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 58 · price 0.70386
HH/HL chain off 0.7023 London low; price at 50% of the faded CPI spike.
The hot AU CPI print spiked AUDUSD to 0.7054 in Asia. The pair then gave it all back to the 0.7023 London low as the USD firmed into FOMC. NY has since built a higher-low chain off 0.7030 to a 0.7041 session high, and price is sitting on the 50% retracement of the CPI move with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70411, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7041 session high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.7047 lower high and the 0.7054 cpi spike
Loss of the 0.7030 higher low breaks the NY trendline and reopens the 0.7023 london low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday range, short-term higher lows into NY · RSI 56 · price 0.70385
0.7023–0.7054 range since the CPI spike; higher-low chain off the 0.7023 double low.
The hot AU CPI print spiked AUD/USD to the 0.7054 CPI high in the Asia session, but the move was rejected and price has rotated inside 0.7023–0.7054 since. A double low at 0.7023 has fed a higher-low sequence into the NY session, and price is now pressing the 0.7040 session high, which sits at the 50% retrace of the CPI spike.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70397, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7040 session high would confirm the double low and expose the 0.7047 lower high, then the 0.7054 CPI high
Loss of the 0.7030 NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and returns focus to the 0.7023 double low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Range, higher lows into NY · RSI 56 · price 0.70377
0.7023–0.7047 range after full CPI spike reversal.
The hot AU CPI spiked the pair to the 0.7054 cpi spike at 00:30 UTC. The move fully faded as the USD firmed. London's 0.7023 low matched yesterday's low to form a double btm, and NY has printed higher lows into the 0.7039 ny high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR is compressed under 4 pips ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.70302, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70393, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7039 ny high clears the double btm neckline and opens the path to the 0.7047 post-CPI high, then the 0.7054 cpi spike
Losing the 0.7030 ny low breaks the rising trendline off the 0.7023 double btm and returns price to the range floor
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot AU CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked the pair to the 0.7054 cpi high, but the move fully unwound into a 0.7023–0.7039 range as the USD firmed into FOMC. The range floor at 0.7023 held overnight and again in London. NY session poked above the London high to the 0.7039 ny high, near the 50% retracement of the CPI spike, and was rejected; price is back mid-range with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70393, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.7039 ny high reopens the 0.7047 lower high and the 0.7054 cpi high
Loss of the 0.7030 ny low and the rising lows line puts the 0.7023 range floor back in play; a break there confirms a lower-low
The hot AU CPI print drove an Asia spike to the 0.7054 cpi high. That move has since retraced about 70% on the cpi spike fib as the USD firmed. London held the 0.7023 london low, matching yesterday's low, and a rising higher-low line formed off it, while the first hour of NY saw a rejection at the 0.7039 ny high. Price sits mid-range at 0.7032 with RSI(14) near 49 and flat EMAs just overhead, ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7039 ny high breaks the range and reopens the 0.7054 cpi high
Loss of the 0.7030 ny low and the higher-low line exposes the 0.7023 london low; a break there sets a lower low out of the range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since London low · RSI 57 · price 0.70351
0.7023–0.7047 range after faded CPI spike; NY building higher lows.
The hot AUD CPI spike to the 0.7054 CPI high was fully faded. Price has since held a 0.7023–0.7047 range, with the lower high at 0.7047 capping. London retested the 0.7023 lows and NY has built higher lows from there along a rising trendline, stalling at the 0.7039 NY high with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70393, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7039 NY high exposes the 0.7047 lower high and the 0.7054 CPI high
Loss of the 0.7030 NY low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 0.7023 London low back in play
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.7030 after twin lows near 0.7023; testing session high.
The hot AU CPI spike to 0.7054 faded into a 0.7023–0.7047 range, with twin lows near 0.7023 holding into London. Early NY printed a higher low at 0.7030 and is now pressing the 0.7039 session high, right at the 50% retracement of the CPI spike, with RSI(14) at 66.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7039 session high exposes the 0.7047 post-CPI cap, then the 0.7054 CPI spike high
Loss of the 0.7030 higher low returns price to the twin lows at 0.7023
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Range-bound after the post-CPI spike faded · RSI 56 · price 0.70345
London false break of the Asian low reversed; NY compressing 0.7030–0.7037.
The hot AUD CPI print spiked the pair to a 0.7054 CPI high in Asia before a firm USD unwound it, leaving a 0.7047 lower high. London dipped below the Asian low to 0.7023, forming a double low with yesterday's NY low, and reversed. NY is now coiling between the 0.7030 NY low and the 0.7037 session high, right at the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70367, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 session high exposes the 0.7047 lower high, then the 0.7054 CPI high
Losing the 0.7030 NY low and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 0.7023 double low
A break of the 0.7023 double low would resolve the range lower
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside the 0.7023–0.7054 post-CPI range; London double bottom at 0.7023, early NY coiling 0.7031–0.7034.
The hot Australian CPI spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7054 CPI high in the Asia session, but a firmer USD erased the spike. London swept the Asian low to 0.7023, matching yesterday's low to form a double bottom, then rebounded toward the London high near 0.7037. Early NY is now coiling at 0.7031–0.7034, about 40% back into the fib of that rebound, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and a thin 2.7-pip ATR(14).
Support: 0.70268, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.7040, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7037 london high opens the 0.7040 prior high, then the 0.7054 cpi high
Loss of the 0.7027 asian low exposes the 0.7023 double bottom; a break there confirms a lower low
A hold of the 50–61.8% fib zone (0.7030–0.7028) keeps the London higher-low structure intact
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7054 CPI high, flat floor near 0.7023.
Hot Australian CPI drove an Asia-session CPI spike to the 0.7054 cpi high, but it faded fast on a firm pre-FOMC USD, and a lower high at 0.7047 (asia lh) followed. Since then price has held a 0.7023–0.7038 range. London dipped to the 0.7023 london low, matching the overnight swing low, and the rebound stalled just under the 0.7038 london high. Early NY is flat at mid-range, sitting on ema20, with the post-cpi low at 0.7027 as nearer support.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.7038 london high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Failure to hold the 0.7023 london low exposes the 0.7000 area
Recapture of 0.7047 asia lh would put the 0.7054 cpi high back in play
13:04 UTC
Flat, range-bound into FOMC · RSI 53 · price 0.70333
False break of Asian low, 0.7023–0.7038 range.
The hot Q3 trimmed-mean CPI spiked AUD/USD to the 0.7054 CPI high early in the Asia session, then it faded as USD firmed to two-week highs pre-FOMC. London broke the 0.7027 Asian low, tagged the 0.7023 day low and reclaimed it, putting a double bottom in place. The London bounce has stalled just under the 0.7038 London high into the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 London high opens the 0.7047 swing high and the 0.7054 CPI high
Loss of the 0.7027 Asian low exposes the 0.7023 day low, and a break below it negates the false-break read
ATR(14) near 3 pips shows compressed pre-event conditions, and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot AU CPI print drove a cpi spike to 0.7054 in the Asia session, then the move fully faded as the USD firmed. London broke the asian low at 0.7027, reached a session low of 0.7023 and reclaimed it, so the break looks false. Early NY has capped at 0.7037, below the london high and near the 38.2% retracement of the spike.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7038 london high reopens the post-CPI zone toward the 0.7054 cpi spike
Failure to hold the 0.7027 asian low exposes the 0.7023 session low; a break there marks a fresh lower low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday rebound within a post-CPI pullback · RSI 59 · price 0.70361
Lower highs from the CPI spike; double bottom at 0.7023, now pressing the London high.
The hot Australian CPI spiked AUDUSD to its 0.7054 CPI high in Asia before a firm USD faded the move. London then false-broke the 0.7027 Asian low and bottomed at 0.7023, matching yesterday's NY low for a double bottom. Price has recovered to 0.7036 near the 38-50% cpi spike retrace and is testing the London high at 0.7038 on the lower-highs line, with RSI near 59 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70231
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 London high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.7047 lower high
Return below the 0.7027 Asian low puts the 0.7023 double bottom back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially reset this range
12:03 UTC
Range, recovering off London low · RSI 55 · price 0.70351
Post-CPI range 0.7023–0.7054; double bottom at 0.7023, price testing London high.
The hot Australian CPI spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7054 cpi high in the Asia session before the firm USD faded it. London flushed to 0.7023, matching the prior NY low for a double btm, and price has since recovered to 0.7035, about 39% back up the CPI spike fib, now pressing the 0.7038 london high, which sits next to the 50% fib, ahead of NY open.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.7038 london high and 50% fib opens the 0.7047 lower high, then the 0.7054 cpi high
Rejection at 0.7038 followed by a loss of the 0.7027 asian low puts the 0.7023 double btm back in play; a break below it confirms a lower low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; BoC decision also due today
0.7023–0.7038 London range under rejected CPI spike high.
The hot Australian CPI beat at 00:30 UTC spiked the pair to 0.7054. That move was rejected, and price has since settled into a 0.7023–0.7038 London range. A 10:15 UTC dip to the session low at 0.7023 matched the overnight NY low and was bought back to 0.7035, retracing about 79% of the drop from the London high and lifting price back above ema20.
Support: 0.7031, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 London high reopens the 0.7047 post-cpi hi and the 0.7054 cpi spike
Failure to hold ema20 near 0.7031 shifts focus back to the 0.7023 session low; a break there marks a lower low below the overnight base
NY open approaching; FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Range after CPI spike, lower highs · RSI 45 · price 0.70304
Post-CPI spike faded; London rejected 0.7023 low, price at 50% retrace.
The hot AUD CPI spike to 0.7054 at 00:30 UTC fully faded as the USD firmed, leaving lower highs into the London high at 0.7038. London then slid to a double low at 0.7023, matching yesterday's NY base. Price has rebounded to the 50% retrace near 0.7030 on the London-NY transition, with the fib 61.8 at 0.7032 just overhead.
Support: 0.70268, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.70322, 0.70379, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.7023 double low opens a fresh window low
Holding back under 0.7027 asia low keeps the London downswing intact
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the cpi spike high at 0.7054 is the upper reference
11:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum stalling at support · RSI 42 · price 0.70274
Lower highs from the CPI high; Asian low broken, prior low holding.
The hot Australian CPI print spiked AUDUSD to a 0.7054 CPI high at 00:30 UTC. A firm USD then faded the move into a lower-high sequence. London broke the 0.7028 Asian low and tagged yesterday's 0.7023 prior low, where buyers stepped in twice. Price is now retesting the broken Asian low from below, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7038, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7028 Asian low reopens the 0.7038 Asian high and the post-CPI fade 38.2% near 0.7035
Failure to hold the 0.7023 prior low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.7000 round number
A break above the lower-high trendline from the CPI high would undercut the fade read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; pre-event chop is likely through NY hours
Lower highs since CPI spike; London dipped below Asian low, held at prior low.
The hot AU CPI spike to 0.7054 at 00:30 UTC has fully unwound against a firm USD. Late London faded from the 0.7038 London high and dipped through the Asian low to 0.7023, where the prior low from yesterday's NY session held. Price is back at 0.7027, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42 and the CPI retrace complete ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.70268, 0.7023, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 prior low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold back above the 0.7027 Asian low keeps London's break lower intact
Reclaim of the 0.7038 London high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.7047 CPI high and 0.7054 CPI spike back into view
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; NY hours before the decision may stay compressed
Lower highs since CPI spike; Asian low broken in London.
The hot AU CPI spiked AUD/USD to the 0.7054 cpi high at 00:30 UTC, but firm USD demand faded the move completely. The London session capped at the 0.7038 london high and then broke the asian low at 0.7027. Price now sits on the prior low near 0.7023, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 34.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7027, 0.7038, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7023 prior low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7000 round number
Reclaim of the 0.7027 asian low would turn the break into a false break, with the london high at 0.7038 above
Lower-high trendline from the post-CPI 0.7047 peak now runs near 0.7035; a break above it ends the lower-high sequence
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a 0.7027–0.7038 post-CPI range, testing range floor.
The hot Australian CPI spiked AUD/USD to the 0.7054 cpi high at 00:30 UTC. Firm USD into FOMC then unwound the whole move, leaving a series of lower highs over a 0.7027–0.7038 range. Mid-London is now pressing the 0.7027 asian low, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 asian low exposes the 0.7023 prior low, then the 0.7000 round number
M15 close above the 0.7038 london high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the range read back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the CPI spike, London boxed 0.7028–0.7038.
The hot AU CPI print spiked the pair to the 0.7054 cpi high in Asia. Supply capped a 0.7047 lower high and the move has since fully faded as the USD firmed. Mid-London, price is boxed between the 0.7028 london low and the 0.7038 london high, which lines up with the 61.8% of the CPI spike fib, with RSI(14) near 45 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.7028, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70379, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 london low exposes yesterday's prior low at 0.7023
M15 close above the 0.7038 london high / 61.8% fib reopens the 0.7047 lower high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser could materially shift this read
The hot Australian CPI print spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7054 cpi high in the Asia session, but a firm USD drove a rejection back into a 0.7028–0.7038 range, with the range low holding three times. Mid-London, price is pressing the range top near the 38.2% of the cpi spike retrace; RSI(14) is around 60 and ATR is a tight 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.7028, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 range top opens the 0.7047 lower high, then the 0.7054 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.7028 range low exposes the 0.7023 asian low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
CPI spike rejected, 0.7028–0.7038 range since 02:30 UTC.
The hot Australian CPI print sent AUD/USD to a 0.7054 cpi spike during the Asia session. The firm USD then pulled it back into a 0.7028–0.7038 range, near the 61.8% retrace of the pre-CPI move. Early London swept the range low at 0.7028 and recovered. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and price is hugging both EMAs.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 range low exposes the 0.7023 prior low
M15 close above the 0.7038 range high opens the 0.7047 post-cpi top, then the 0.7054 cpi spike
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs after CPI spike, compressing 0.7028–0.7038.
The hot AU CPI print at 00:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7054 cpi high. The move was rejected on a firm USD, and price has been boxed between the 0.7028 range low and the 0.7038 range high since early Asia. The London open dip to the range low drew buyers. Price now sits mid-range near the 61.8% retrace of the CPI spike, with flat EMAs and neutral RSI.
Support: 0.7028, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 range low (78.6% fib) exposes the 0.7023 prior low and the pre-CPI base
Close above the 0.7038 range high reopens the 0.7047 lower high, with the 0.7054 cpi high above it
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could override this intraday range read
The hot Sept CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7054 cpi high, but the firm USD saw a rejection that fully faded the move to 0.7027. Since 02:00 UTC price has compressed between the 0.7028 range low and 0.7038 range high, and early London has defended the floor on a 07:45 wick. RSI(14) is flat near 51, so no setup is in play.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 range high opens a retest of the 0.7054 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.7028 range low exposes the 0.7023 ny low from late NY hours
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Flat, CPI spike fully faded into range · RSI 54 · price 0.70338
Tight 0.7028–0.7035 range after post-CPI lower highs.
AUD spiked to the 0.7054 CPI high on the 00:30 UTC Sept CPI beat, then faded through the Asia session as a firm USD capped it. That pullback retraced into the 61.8–78.6% zone of the CPI spike fib. Since 04:00 UTC price has held a 0.7028–0.7035 range; the London open bar swept the range low and closed at the range high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.7028, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70351, 0.7040, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7035 range high ends the range read and puts the 0.7040 prior high in play
Failure to hold the 0.7028 range low (78.6% of the CPI spike fib) exposes the 0.7023 prior low
Recovery through 0.7040 would put the 0.7054 CPI high back in view
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs pressing a 0.7029–0.7035 range floor, compressing into London open.
The hot Australian September CPI drove a cpi spike to 0.7054 in Asia. The move was rejected within the bar, and the 0.7047 post-cpi hi also failed before price dropped to a 0.7027 post-cpi low. Since then price has compressed into a 0.7029–0.7035 range between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the spike, with each lower high capped by a descending trendline, RSI(14) flat near 51 and ATR(14) down to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.7029, 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7035, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7035 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the compression and reopens 0.7047
Failure to hold the 0.7029 range floor and the 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 asian low
London open is the first test of the range; FOMC and the Warsh press conference later in the NY session could materially shift this read
Tight 0.7028–0.7038 range with lower highs into London open.
The hot Sept CPI beat lifted AUD to a 0.7054 cpi high in the Asia session. A firm USD saw that high rejected, along with the 0.7047 rebound high, and price has since compressed between the 0.7028 range low and 0.7038 range top. Price is printing lower highs into the London open, just under EMA20 and near the 61.8% retrace of the CPI leg, with RSI(14) flat at 49.
Support: 0.7028, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7028 range low exposes the 0.7023 pre-cpi low and a full retrace of the CPI leg
M15 close above the 0.7038 range top breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 0.7047 rebound high
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker) and the press conference could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Flat after a faded CPI spike, lower highs · RSI 46 · price 0.70319
Post-CPI compression, range 0.7029–0.7035 under a falling trendline.
The Sept CPI beat spiked AUDUSD from the 0.7023 asia low to a 0.7054 cpi high at 00:30 UTC. The spike was rejected as the USD held two-week highs into the FOMC. Since the 0.7027 post-cpi low, price has coiled between the 0.7029 range low and 0.7035 range top under a falling trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 as London opens.
Support: 0.70294, 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70348, 0.7040, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7035 range top and lower-highs trendline breaks the compression and exposes the 0.7040 prior high
Loss of 0.7029 range low, then 0.7027 post-cpi low, completes the full retrace toward the 0.7023 asia low
Price trading between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the CPI spike fib; a hold here keeps the move a deep retracement rather than a reversal
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The 00:30 UTC CPI beat spiked the pair to a 0.7054 cpi high, but the two-week-high USD faded the move through Asia. A 0.7047 lower high followed, and since 04:00 UTC price has compressed between the 0.7027 range floor and 0.7035 range top under a falling line of lower highs. Into the London open it sits near the 78.6% retracement of the CPI leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) ~43.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70348, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 range floor breaks the post-CPI base and exposes the 0.7023 ny low
Close above the 0.7035 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.7047 lower high
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Sideways after a failed CPI spike, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 0.70302
Lower highs compressing into the 0.7027 post-CPI low, CPI spike largely retraced.
The hot Sept CPI at 00:30 UTC pushed AUDUSD through the prior 0.7040 London high to a 0.7054 CPI high. Supply capped the move and a firm USD into FOMC unwound most of it, leaving price near the 78.6% retracement of the 0.7023–0.7054 leg. Late-Asia trade is compressing under a series of lower highs, with the 0.7035 range top capping and the 0.7027 post-CPI low holding ahead of London open.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70348, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 post-CPI low exposes the 0.7023 NY low and a full retrace of the CPI spike
Break of the lower highs line and a close above the 0.7035 range top reopens the 0.7047 lower high, then the 0.7054 CPI high
A London-session break of the 0.7027–0.7035 range sets the intraday structure
FOMC statement at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7054, flat base at 0.7027-0.7028.
The hot September CPI drove a cpi spike from the 0.7023 session low to 0.7054 in Asia. The move was rejected as USD held two-week highs, printing a lower high at 0.7047 and a post-cpi low at 0.7027. Late in the Asia session, ahead of London open, price is compressed in a 0.7028–0.7035 band around the 61.8% level of the cpi spike fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.70275, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 swing high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.7047 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.7027 post-cpi low reopens the 0.7023 session low and erases the CPI rally
London open is the first test of the 0.7028–0.7035 compression
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the press conference could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the CPI spike, tight range 0.7027–0.7038.
The hot Sep CPI print spiked AUDUSD to a 0.7054 cpi high in the Asia session. The move was rejected as USD firmed pre-FOMC, with a lower high at 0.7047, and price has retraced into the 61.8–78.6% zone of the 0.7023–0.7054 CPI leg. Since 02:00 UTC price has compressed between the 0.7027 swing low and 0.7038 range top, hugging EMA20/50 with RSI near 48 heading into London.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 range top reopens the 0.7047 lower high and the 0.7054 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.7027 swing low exposes the 0.7023 pre-cpi low and a full unwind of the CPI leg
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 0.7054 CPI spike; tight 0.7027–0.7038 box late in Asia session.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD from the 0.7023 asian low to a 0.7054 cpi spike. The move above yesterday's 0.7040 NY high failed, with the post-cpi top at 0.7047 also rejected. Price has since retraced about 74% of the CPI move and is pinned to flat EMAs near 0.7031, inside a 0.7027–0.7038 box under a falling line of lower highs.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7038 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 0.7047
Failure to hold the 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 asian low and a full CPI round-trip
London open is the first test of the compression box
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.7054 cpi spike sits at the 0.7050–0.7055 cap flagged in the digest
05:47 UTC
Range after failed CPI spike · RSI 49 · price 0.70323
Lower highs since 0.7054 spike, late-Asia compression 0.7028-0.7038.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC lifted AUD/USD to a 0.7054 cpi spike above yesterday's 0.7040 NY high, but the break failed. A rebound high at 0.7047 capped the next push before a drop to the 0.7027 post-cpi low. Late Asia is now compressing between the 0.7028 swing low and the 0.7038 lower high, holding the 61.8-78.6% zone of the cpi spike fib with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.70281, 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7038 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.7047 rebound high
Failure to hold the 0.7028 swing low and 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 pre-cpi low
London open in ~1h could set the session range off the Asian compression
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot Sep CPI lifted AUDUSD to a 0.7054 cpi high during the Asia session. The spike was rejected as the USD held firm into FOMC, and price has given back almost the whole move, sitting near the 78.6% of the cpi leg fib. Late in the Asian session, price is compressing between a 0.7034 lower high and the 0.7027 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70338, 0.7040, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 swing low puts the 0.7023 pre-cpi low in play and completes the CPI retrace
Close above the 0.7034 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline and exposes the 0.7040 prior high
London open in ~1.5h is likely to resolve the current compression
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs compressing inside a 0.7027–0.7047 post-CPI range.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked AUD/USD from the 0.7023 asian low to a 0.7054 cpi high in the Asia session. The move was rejected and has since retraced into a 0.7027 post-cpi low to 0.7047 lower high range, with highs stepping down. Price at 0.7034 sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the CPI spike, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 47 and yesterday's 0.7040 prior high capping the range.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
Close above the lower highs line and the 0.7040 prior high reopens the 0.7047 lower high and 0.7054 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 asian low and a full retrace of the CPI spike
London open in ~2h is likely to set the session range; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since CPI spike, compressing in 0.7028–0.7038 range.
Hot AU CPI drove a spike to the 0.7054 cpi high, clearing yesterday's 0.7040 NY high. Price then faded to the 0.7027 post-cpi low as the firm USD into FOMC capped gains. Late in the Asia session, price now compresses between 0.7028 and the 0.7038 range top under a lower-highs line, RSI(14) neutral near 46 and the Asian low at 0.7023 below.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.7038 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 0.7047 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 Asian low and a full retrace of the CPI spike
London open in ~2h is the first test of the compressed range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
The hot Sep CPI spike to the 0.7054 cpi high was rejected in Asia, as the firmer pre-FOMC USD capped follow-through, and the pair has since printed lower highs at the 0.7047 retest high and the 0.7038 lower high. Price now sits near EMA50, about 72% back into the CPI spike fib, while the 0.7027 asia low holds as the base; the ny low at 0.7023 is the pre-CPI floor.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.7027 asia low exposes the 0.7023 ny low and fully unwinds the CPI spike
An M15 close above the 0.7038 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.7047 retest high
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the post-CPI Asia range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 0.7054 CPI high, base at 0.7027.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked AUD/USD through Tuesday's 0.7040 NY high to the 0.7054 cpi high, but the break failed. Price has retraced about 76% of the CPI spike as a firm USD caps follow-through. Late in the Asia session, lower highs are stacking under 0.7038, and the post-CPI low at 0.7027 has held twice with the pre-CPI base at 0.7023 just below.
Support: 0.70275, 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7038, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 pre-cpi base and the 0.7012 tuesday low
Close above the 0.7038 lower high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 0.7047 retest high back in play
London open in ~2.5h is likely to extend or break the Asian session range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7054, compressing above the 0.7027 post-CPI low.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked the pair to a cpi high of 0.7054 in the Asia session, but firm USD into FOMC capped it. Price has faded through the 61.8% of the CPI spike fib, with lower highs at the post-CPI high of 0.7047 and 0.7038. It now sits at 0.7030, just above the 0.7027 post-CPI low.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70381, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 post-CPI low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.7023 pre-CPI low
Close back above the 0.7038 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.7047 post-CPI high is next
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower high under 0.7054 rejection; tight 0.7031–0.7040 compression.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked the pair from the 0.7023 Asian low to a 0.7054 CPI high in the Asia session. The spike was rejected, and the post-CPI low at 0.7027 followed a 0.7047 lower high as a firm USD capped follow-through. Price is now compressing between the 0.7031 range low and yesterday's 0.7040 prior high, just above the 23.6% retrace of the CPI spike fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.7031, 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7040 prior high reopens the 0.7047 lower high and the 0.7054 CPI high
Failure to hold the 0.7031 range low exposes the 0.7027 post-CPI low, then the 0.7023 Asian low
London open in ~3h is the first test of the post-CPI range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off CPI spike, compressing mid-range in late Asia session.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 0.70539 cpi high. The move was rejected, with a 0.70474 lower high and a slide to the 0.70268 post-cpi low by 02:15 UTC. Late Asia session is now compressing at the 61.8% of the cpi spike fib near 0.7035, capped under the 0.7040 prior high, with the 0.70229 ny low below.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70474 lower high reopens the 0.70539 cpi high
Failure at the 0.7040 prior high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Break of the 0.70268 post-cpi low unwinds most of the CPI spike toward the 0.70229 ny low
London open in ~4h is likely to resolve the Asian compression
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today is the next major catalyst for this read
Lower highs inside 0.7027–0.7047 after a false break above the prior high.
The hot Sep CPI print (4.3% vs 4.2%) drove AUDUSD through yesterday's NY prior high at 0.7040 to a 0.7054 cpi high in the Asia session. The spike was rejected and price has slipped past the 61.8% of the cpi rally fib, coiling between the 0.7027 post-cpi low and a 0.7047 lower high. The rise started from the 0.7023 asia low, and RSI(14) at 48 is mid-range with ATR near 7 pips.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7040 prior high and 0.7047 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.7054 cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.7027 post-cpi low exposes the 0.7023 asia low, then Tuesday's 0.7012 london low
London open in ~3.5h is the first test of the post-CPI range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the CPI high, higher low at 0.7027 holding.
Hot Sep CPI sent AUDUSD from the 0.7023 pre-CPI low to a 0.7054 CPI high early in the Asia session. The spike was rejected, and a lower high at 0.7047 followed. Price is now compressing around the 61.8% retrace near 0.7035, with the 0.7027 post-CPI low holding below and yesterday's 0.7040 prior high capping above.
Support: 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.7047 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.7054 CPI high
Failure to hold the 0.7027 post-CPI low exposes the 0.7023 pre-CPI low and unwinds the CPI leg
Acceptance above the 0.7040 prior high is needed to shift the read from consolidation
The FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) and Warsh presser later today could materially shift this read
Lower highs below the CPI spike high, holding above the Asian low.
Hot Sep CPI at 00:30 UTC lifted AUDUSD out of the Asian range to a 0.70539 cpi high, but the spike was rejected. Since then a lower high at 0.70474 and a dip to the 0.70268 swing low have left price rotating mid-Asia session near the 61.8% retracement of the spike, just under the 0.70400 prior high.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.70474 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.70539 cpi high
Acceptance above the 0.70400 prior high would put the post-CPI lower-high sequence under pressure
Failure to hold the 0.70268 swing low leaves the 0.70229 asian low as the next reference
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.7054 CPI high, swing range 0.7027–0.7047.
Hot Australian CPI at 00:30 UTC spiked AUD/USD through the 0.7040 prior high to a 0.7054 CPI high. That high was rejected as the firmer USD capped follow-through, and the Asia session has since printed a lower high at 0.7047, a 0.7031 CPI dip and a 0.7027 session low. Price sits mid-range at 0.7036. ATR(14) has expanded to about 6 pips and RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 0.7031, 0.7027, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.7027 session low exposes the 0.7023 Asian base and fully unwinds the CPI spike
An M15 close above the 0.7047 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.7054 CPI high back in play
Holding above the 0.7031 CPI dip and the 0.7040 prior high keeps the post-CPI range intact
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with a December hike ~82% priced, could materially shift this read
Lower highs after CPI rejection, holding above Asia swing low.
Hot Sept CPI (4.3% vs 4.2%) spiked AUDUSD to the cpi high at 0.7054 in the Asia session. The move was rejected, and the firmer USD left a false break of yesterday's prior high at 0.7040, with lower highs at 0.7047 and 0.7041. Price has retraced about 80% of the CPI leg and sits just above the 0.7027 swing low, between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.70268, 0.70229, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7027 swing low exposes the 0.7023 pre-cpi low, with the 0.7012 prior low the next marker
Recovery back above the 0.7040 prior high breaks the post-CPI lower highs and reopens 0.7047 and the 0.7054 cpi high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC later today is the main event risk for this read
CPI spike rejected; lower high at 0.7047, testing post-CPI low.
The hot AU CPI print at 00:30 UTC spiked price through yesterday's 0.7040 prior high to the 0.7054 CPI high, but the move was rejected. A second push stalled at the 0.7047 rebound high, and the Asia session is back on the 0.7030 post-CPI low, about 74% into the CPI spike fib. The firm USD is capping the CPI bid; RSI(14) sits near 50 and ATR is around 6 pips after the release volatility.
Support: 0.7030, 0.7023
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.7047, 0.7054
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.7030 post-CPI low exposes the 0.7023 Asian low and erases the CPI move
Reclaiming 0.7040 prior high and then the 0.7047 rebound high would undo the false-break read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Spike rejected at 0.7054, higher low 0.7031, coiling near 0.7040.
Hot AU monthly CPI at 00:30 UTC lifted AUDUSD out of the Asian range from the 0.7023 asian low, through yesterday's 0.7040 NY high, to a 0.7054 cpi high. The spike was rejected, and the pullback found demand at the 0.7031 cpi low, holding the 50% retrace of the CPI spike fib. Price is now coiling around 0.7040 under a 0.7047 lower high. RSI(14) is at 61 and ATR is about 6 pips after the expansion.
Support: 0.70306, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70474, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7031 cpi low breaks rising support and puts the 0.7023 asian low back in play.
Close above the 0.7047 lower high reopens the 0.7054 cpi high.
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference during NY hours could materially shift this read.
Breakout above prior high, deep pullback held, higher low.
Hot AU monthly CPI (4.3% y/y vs 4.2%) at 00:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD through yesterday's 0.7040 prior high to a 0.7054 cpi high, then faded to a 0.7031 cpi low before buyers stepped back in. Early Asia session is now holding above the prior high, pressing the 0.7047 recent high with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR expanded to ~5 pips.
Support: 0.7040, 0.70306
Resistance: 0.70469, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7031 cpi low marks a failed break of the prior high
Acceptance above the 0.7047 recent high puts the 0.7054 cpi high back in play
Slipping under the 0.7040 prior high returns price to the deep part of the cpi spike fib
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser could materially shift this read
Breakout above prior-day high, two-way retest after spike rejection.
Hot AU monthly CPI (4.3% vs 4.2%) lifted the pair out of the 0.7023–0.7031 Asian range to a 0.70539 cpi high in the 00:30 UTC bar. That spike was rejected and flushed to a 0.70306 post-cpi low, near the 78.6% fib of the CPI leg, before rebounding. Price is now sitting on yesterday's 0.7040 prior high, capped by the 0.70455 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR expanded to about 48 pips.
Support: 0.7040, 0.70306, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70455, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7040 prior high turns the breakout into a retest failure
Loss of the 0.70306 post-cpi low returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.70229 asian low below
Close above the 0.70455 bounce high reopens the 0.70539 cpi high
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:00/18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Spike higher on CPI, now fading · RSI 58 · price 0.70342
False break above prior high, back inside the range.
The hot AU CPI print at 00:30 UTC spiked AUD/USD through Tuesday's 0.7040 NY-session prior high to a 0.7054 spike high. Supply capped the move within two bars, and price is back at 0.7034, about 63% of the rollover low-to-spike leg retraced and sitting just above the 0.7030 cpi base. Asia session range now runs 0.7023–0.7054.
Support: 0.7030, 0.70229, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7040, 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7040 prior high reopens the 0.7054 spike high and negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.7030 cpi base exposes the 0.7023 rollover low, then the 0.7012 london low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially reset this intraday range
Early Asia session, AUD spiked on the 00:30 GMT September CPI release. It cleared Tuesday's 0.7040 prior high and the top of the 0.7012–0.7040 range to a 0.7054 cpi high, then gave back about 10 pips of the wick. Price is holding above 0.7040 with RSI(14) near 77 after a move of roughly 30 pips from the 0.7023 overnight low.
Support: 0.7040, 0.70352, 0.70229
Resistance: 0.70539
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.7040 prior high turns the CPI spike into a false break inside the old range
Loss of the 0.7035 pre-cpi base exposes the cpi leg fib 61.8% near 0.7035 and then the 0.7023 overnight low
Acceptance above the 0.7054 cpi high extends the breakout
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
After a day pinned in a 0.7012–0.7040 range, the Asia session spiked through the range top on Bullock and the September CPI release, printing a spike high at 0.7054. RSI(14) is above 80 and the CPI bar alone covered roughly 19 pips against a 4-pip ATR, so the move is stretched relative to the session range.
Support: 0.7040, 0.7029, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7054, 0.7100
What it said to watch
Close back below 0.7040 range top would mark the CPI move as a false break
Acceptance above 0.7054 spike high opens the path toward the 0.7100 round number
A pullback holding the pre-cpi base near 0.7029 keeps the breakout structure intact; losing it returns price to the range
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Intraday range, faded off the NY high · RSI 54 · price 0.70287
Lower highs from 0.7040; 0.7023 floor held twice overnight.
London held the 0.7012 day low and NY broke the Asian high to reach a 0.7040 session high, where the 100-DMA capped the move. Price then faded to the 61.8% retrace, where the 0.7023 overnight low held twice. It now sits at 0.7029 in early Asia, with ATR near 2.4 pips ahead of Bullock at 00:15 GMT and Sept CPI at 00:30 GMT.
Support: 0.7023, 0.7012
Resistance: 0.7033, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Bullock (00:15 GMT) and Sept CPI with the trimmed mean (00:30 GMT) are minutes away and could break this range in either direction
M15 close above the 0.7040 session high clears the 100-DMA cap and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 0.7023 overnight low exposes the 0.7012 day low
Acceptance above the 0.7033 Asian high would reverse the lower-high sequence off 0.7040
FOMC at 18:00 UTC Wednesday could override any post-CPI move