21:06 UTC
September downtrend paused, recovery testing EMA50 · RSI 57 · price 0.70195
Double bottom 0.6894/0.6903, neckline 0.7013 under retest.
The September slide from the 0.7237 sept high ran about 340 pips to the 0.6894 october low. That low sat just under the 0.6903 late-September trough, building a double bottom with a neckline near 0.7013. Last week's RBA-hike-driven rally broke the sept downtrend line and closed above the neckline, but it stalled at the 0.7039 october high, right at the 38.2% level of the sept-oct fib. Price now sits fractionally below a flattening EMA50 near 0.7022, with the last two sessions retesting the neckline and the 0.7000 psych area from above.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.7039, 0.7106, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7039 october high clears the 38.2% retracement and opens the 0.7106 61.8% fib, where the mid-September range broke down
- Daily close back below 0.7000 psych puts price under the neckline and undermines the double bottom read, with the 0.6894 october low as the next pivot
- AU September CPI (Wed 00:30 GMT, trimmed mean f/c 0.3% m/m) and the Bullock speech just before it could decide whether the october high gives way
- FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC: a hawkish hold that keeps a December hike live could cap the recovery below the EMA50
- Recapture of the 0.7237 sept high is needed to restore the prior HH/HL chain; until then the move reads as a correction of the September decline