21:07 UTC
Corrective downtrend from Sep high, now rebounding · RSI 56 · price 0.70279
Lower highs since Sep 9, double bottom base at 0.6894–0.6903.
The Sep 9 high at 0.7237 began a five-week slide that bottomed in a double bottom at 0.6903 (Oct 1) and 0.6894 (Oct 15 oct low). Last week's 1.2% gain, driven by hawkish RBA pricing and a softer USD, broke the downtrend line and lifted price back above the 0.7000 round number. The pair now sits at the 38.2% retracement of the Sep–Oct drop, just under a declining ema50 near 0.7045. The fib 50% at 0.7066 sits directly above that.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6894, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7045, 0.7066, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the ema50 near 0.7045 would mark the first reclaim of the swing filter since mid-September and open the fib 50% at 0.7066.
- Above 0.7066, the next reference is the sep pivot at 0.7130–0.7140, where the mid-September consolidation broke down.
- A daily close back below the 0.7000 round number would undercut the double bottom breakout and reopen the oct low at 0.6894.
- A break of the oct low would leave the june low at 0.6865 as the next reference.
- Bullock at 00:15 UTC and Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC Wed (trimmed mean f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read.
- The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC Wed drives the USD leg and could decide the ema50 test.