AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovering from NY low, flat into early Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.69878
Tight 5-pip range above a higher low, capped near fib 61.8%.
AUD/USD reversed the RBA spike at 0.7029 after Bullock said the board debated a hold, and a firm USD pushed NY to a 0.6966 low before a bounce to the fib 50% area. Early Asia session is compressing between the range floor at 0.6984 and range top at 0.6989, with the 0.6976 rollover low holding as a higher low.
Support: 0.6984, 0.6976, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
AU CPI at 01:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read and is likely to break the 0.6984–0.6989 range
Close above 0.6991 (fib 61.8%) clears the range top and puts the 0.7007 London high back in play, with the 0.7029 RBA spike beyond
Loss of the 0.6976 rollover low breaks the higher-low trendline and re-exposes the 0.6966 NY low
23:31 UTC
Down-leg paused, sideways into Asia · RSI 52 · price 0.69867
Tight range 0.6976–0.6989 below the NY bounce high.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hold debate. The pair has held between the 0.6976 rollover low and the 0.6989 range high since the NY bounce off the 0.6966 swing low, and it sits at the 50% fib of the 0.7007–0.6966 leg. Early Asia is quiet, RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is under 4 pips ahead of AU CPI.
Support: 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000
What it said to watch
AU CPI at 01:30 UTC (trimmed f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6989 range high / 61.8% fib opens the path to 0.7000 psych
Failure to hold the 0.6976 rollover low re-exposes the 0.6966 swing low
Tight 0.6976–0.6989 box above NY low, rising lows.
Early Asia session, and the pair is compressed in a 0.6976–0.6989 box after bouncing off the 0.6966 NY low. That low extended the post-RBA reversal on Bullock's caution and a firm USD. Price sits at the 50% retrace of the London high–NY low leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) under 4 pips ahead of AUD CPI.
Support: 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
AUD monthly CPI at 01:30 UTC (~2h), trimmed mean vs 3.6% f/c, could materially shift this read and break the box
M15 close above the 0.6989 range top opens the 0.7000 round number, then the 0.7007 london high
Break of the 0.6976 rollover low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.6966 ny low; a lower-low below it extends the post-RBA reversal
23:03 UTC
Downtrend since RBA spike, paused in tight range · RSI 50 · price 0.6985
Lower highs 0.7029 → 0.7007 → 0.6989; compressing 0.6976–0.6989 in early Asia.
The RBA's dovish hike spiked the pair to 0.7029 before Bullock's caution and a firm USD reversed it. NY extended the slide to the 0.6966 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 0.6989 post-NY high, near the 50% fib of the London high-to-NY low drop. Early Asia is compressing below the lower-high line, and the open low at 0.6976 was rejected on the daily-open wicks.
Support: 0.6976, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
AU monthly CPI at 01:30 UTC (~2.5h; trimmed mean f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6989 post-NY high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 0.7000 round number, then the 0.7007 london high
Failure at the open low 0.6976 exposes the 0.6966 ny low and a lower-low extension of the downtrend
22:47 UTC
Post-RBA downtrend, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.69839
Tight Asian band 0.6976–0.6989 below 0.7000.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy and a firm USD. London capped at 0.7007 and NY printed a 0.6966 low before bouncing to the 0.6989 swing high. Since then price has compressed in a 0.6976–0.6989 band through rollover and early Asia, with RSI(14) near 44 and EMAs flat overhead.
Support: 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
August CPI at 01:30 UTC is likely to resolve the 0.6976–0.6989 band
M15 close above the 0.6989 swing high opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7007 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6976 rollover low exposes the 0.6966 ny low and a lower-low
A move back under the 38.2% of the NY rebound fib shifts the read from consolidation to retracement
Lower highs and lower lows since the RBA; tight band capped below 0.6989.
Bullock's dovish-hike presser reversed the RBA spike from 0.7029. The pair then set a 0.7007 london high and a 0.6966 ny low. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.6989 rebound high, just below the 61.8% fib, and early Asia is holding a 0.6985–0.6989 band near the 50% level, with the rollover low at 0.6976 back near the 0.6978 post-RBA low.
Support: 0.6976, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y, trimmed mean 3.6%) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6989 rebound high and the 61.8% fib opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7007 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6976 rollover low exposes the 0.6966 ny low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs from 0.7029 to 0.7007 to 0.6989; tight range above the post-RBA low.
AUDUSD reversed its RBA 'dovish hike' spike to 0.7029 and broke the 0.6978 post-RBA low during NY hours, reaching a 0.6966 day low as the USD stayed bid. Price has since recovered to the 50% level of the NY sell-off fib and has compressed in a 0.6984–0.6989 range under the 0.6989 bounce high. Thin rollover dips toward 0.6976 were bought back within the bar, and ATR(14) sits near 4 pips.
Support: 0.69845, 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC (y/y f/c 4.0%, trimmed mean 3.6%) could materially shift this read
A close above the 0.6989 bounce high and the 61.8% NY sell-off fib at 0.6991 opens the round number 0.7000 and the 0.7007 prior high
Loss of the 0.6984 range low and the 0.6978 post-RBA low exposes the 0.6966 day low
22:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 47 · price 0.69845
Lower highs from London high 0.7007; NY low 0.6966, bounce capped at 0.6989.
RBA's dovish hike spiked AUD to 0.7029 before a reversal to 0.6978. After the London high at 0.7007, a firm USD dragged price to a 0.6966 NY low. The late-NY bounce stalled at 0.6989 (post-NY high), just shy of the 61.8% fib of the NY leg, and price is now pinned in a tight 0.6985–0.6989 range with rollover spikes to 0.6976.
Support: 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6989 post-NY high breaks the range and opens the psych 0.7000 and the 0.7007 London high
Failure to hold the 0.6976 rollover low exposes the 0.6966 NY low and resumes the lower-low sequence
AUD August CPI (Wed 01:30 UTC, f/c 4.0% y/y) could materially shift this read in Asia session
US ADP / core PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) is the next USD driver
21:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening after late bounce · RSI 56 · price 0.69855
Lower highs from the RBA spike, late recovery capped at 0.6989, tight coil into rollover.
The RBA-hike spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy. Lower highs at the 0.7007 midday high in the London-NY transition, plus a firm USD, took NY hours to a 0.6966 day low. A late bounce stalled at 0.6989, and price is now coiling near the 50% retracement of that NY sell-off, just above flat EMAs, with ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 bounce high opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 61.8% area of the NY sell-off
Failure at 0.7000 psych or the 0.7007 midday high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 0.6978 post-RBA low exposes the 0.6966 day low
AU August CPI and Trimmed Mean at 01:30 UTC (under 4h away) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from post-RBA spike; NY low 0.6966, bounce capped 0.6989.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 fully reversed after Bullock's comments. Lower highs followed at the 0.7007 london high and the 0.6989 bounce high, and NY broke the 0.6978 rba low to a 0.6966 ny low as the yield-driven USD firmed. The bounce stalled near the 61.8% fib of the NY sell-off, and price is drifting in thin rollover trade just above the rba low, RSI(14) ~40.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; Trimmed Mean f/c 3.6%
M15 close above the 0.6989 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7000 round number in view
Failure to hold the 0.6978 rba low reopens the 0.6966 ny low
Reclaim of the 0.7007 london high needed to negate the post-RBA downtrend
Lower highs from the RBA spike; tight late-NY range at the 50% fib.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy. A firm USD then carried NY through the 0.6978 rba low to a 0.6966 ny low before an 18:00 UTC pop reclaimed it. Late NY is coiling between the 0.6985 range low and the 0.6989 bounce high, right at the 50% fib of the london high-to-NY low drop. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.69845, 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~4.5h) could break the range either way
M15 close above the 0.6989 bounce high, then the 61.8% fib near 0.6991, opens the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7007 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6985 range low puts the 0.6978 rba low back in play; a break below it re-exposes the 0.6966 ny low
Lower highs from the 0.7029 RBA spike; tight 4-pip range after the NY-low bounce.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' reversed the 04:30 UTC pop to 0.7029, and firm USD extended the NY leg from the 0.7007 london high to a 0.6966 ny low before an 18:00 UTC bounce. Price now sits flat near the 50% retracement of that NY leg (0.6986) in a tight range under the 0.6989 bounce high. RSI is neutral at 53 and ATR is compressed to about 4 pips into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.69846, 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 bounce high opens the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7007 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6985 range low exposes the 0.6978 rba low, then the 0.6966 ny low
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the ny low back in focus
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
20:33 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY pause · RSI 48 · price 0.69848
Lower highs 0.7029/0.7007/0.6989; tight range after bounce from 0.6966.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' reversed the 0.7029 spike, and a firm USD has since capped the pair at lower highs: the 0.7007 session high at the London-NY transition, then the 0.6989 bounce high after the 0.6966 NY low held. Price has held a 4-pip band near the 50% fib of that leg, under the descending trendline, just above the 0.6980 rba low zone.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 bounce high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, bringing 0.7000 psych into view
Failure to hold the 0.6980 rba low exposes the 0.6966 ny low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Australian August CPI and Trimmed Mean at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR near 4.5 pips reflects the late-NY lull; expect the range to widen into the CPI release
Lower highs and lower lows since the RBA spike; tight post-NY range below the 61.8% retrace.
The RBA pop to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy to a 0.6978 rba low. London capped at the 0.7007 london high, and a firm USD in NY extended the lower-low sequence to the 0.6966 ny low. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.6989 rebound high, just under the 61.8% retrace, and price is now flat in a 0.6984–0.6989 range hugging EMA50 as the session winds down.
Support: 0.6984, 0.6978, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 rebound high and the 61.8% retrace (~0.6991) opens 0.7000 psych and the 0.7007 london high
Loss of the 0.6984 range base exposes the 0.6978 rba low, then the 0.6966 ny low
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC in the Asia session could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.7007, lower low at 0.6966; tight consolidation at 50% retrace.
The RBA's hesitant hike spiked AUD to 0.7029, then Bullock's comments and a firm USD drove it through 0.6978. London's rebound capped at the 0.7007 london high and NY printed a lower low at 0.6966. The late-NY bounce has stalled near the 50% fib at 0.6986, just under the 61.8% fib at 0.6991, with price pinned at EMA50 into the Asia handover.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6991, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6991 (61.8% fib) opens the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7007 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6978 post-rba low puts the 0.6966 ny low back in play
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US ADP and Core PCE from 12:15 UTC Wednesday are the next USD-side test
Lower highs at 0.7029/0.7007/0.6989; tight 0.6984–0.6989 range under descending trendline.
Lower highs have held since the post-RBA reversal from 0.7029, and the firm, yield-driven USD pushed NY to a 0.6966 session low. The late-NY bounce has stalled at the 0.6989 bounce high, which sits on the 50% level of the 0.7007–0.6966 fib and the descending trendline. Price is hugging EMA50, RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.6981, 0.6972, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.6991 (61.8% fib) and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 0.7000 psych and the 0.7007 london high sit above
Loss of 0.6981 (ema20/38.2% fib) exposes the 0.6972 base top and the 0.6966 session low
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~6h, f/c 4.0% y/y, trimmed mean 3.6%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7007; bounce off day low capped at 50–61.8% retrace.
The RBA's dovish hike reversed an early pop to 0.7029, and NY-hours USD strength extended the slide from the 0.7007 swing high to a 0.6966 day low. The late-NY bounce reclaimed the ema20 and the 0.6978 rba low but stalled at 0.6989, the bounce high. That area sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the swing high-to-day low leg, with the EMA50 flat around 0.6987.
Support: 0.6982, 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6989 bounce high and the 61.8% fib at 0.6991 opens the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.6982 and the 0.6978 rba low puts the 0.6966 day low back in play
Australian August CPI and Trimmed Mean at 01:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 0.7029 and 0.7007, lower low at 0.6966; bounce holding near 50% of the NY leg.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' spike to 0.7029 fully reversed, and the firm USD bid capped NY at 0.7007 (ny high) before a slide to a 0.6966 session low. The late-NY bounce has retraced half of that leg and stalled at 0.6989 (bounce high), just under the 61.8% fib. It is now retesting the 0.6978 post-rba low zone from above, with EMA20 near 0.6979.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6991 (61.8% fib) and the 0.7000 psych level breaks the lower-high chain toward the 0.7007 ny high
Failure back below 0.6978 (post-rba low) returns focus to the 0.6966 session low
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; a soft print keeps the 0.6966 session low in play
Lower highs since RBA spike; NY lower low at 0.6966 reclaimed.
The RBA 'dovish hike' spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's presser. London capped at the 0.7007 London high and NY extended to a 0.6966 session low. A late-NY rebound then reclaimed the 0.6980 prior low, and price now sits at the 50% retracement of the NY drop. The 0.6989 bounce high caps for now, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and the pair holding under the EMA50.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
Waller at 19:00 UTC is live now and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close back below the 0.6980 prior low reinstates the NY breakdown and puts the 0.6966 session low back in play.
A close above the 0.6989 bounce high and the 61.8% at 0.6991 opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7007 London high.
Australia's August CPI at 01:30 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y) is the next event risk for the Asian range.
Lower highs from London high; NY low at 0.6966 then reclaim of 0.6978.
The RBA hike pop to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy. After London capped at the 0.7007 london high, a firm USD drove NY through the 0.6978 post-rba low to a 0.6966 ny low. A late-NY bounce has reclaimed 0.6978 and sits in the 38.2–50% fib zone, pressing the 0.6985–0.6990 breakdown shelf just under EMA50.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 breakdown shelf and 50% fib opens the 0.7000 round number, then the 0.7007 london high
Slip back below the 0.6978 post-rba low re-exposes the 0.6966 ny low
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC tomorrow is the next AUD-side risk
Lower highs from 0.7007 London high; 0.6978 rba low swept then reclaimed.
Selling after the RBA's dovish hike extended through NY: lower highs from the 0.7007 London high took out the 0.6978 rba low to a 0.6966 session low. The 18:00 UTC bar reclaimed 0.6978 in one push and is testing the 38.2% fib of the NY drop at 0.6981. The 0.6985 breakdown point sits just overhead.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69845, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Waller at 19:00 UTC (~45m) could materially shift this read via USD
M15 close above the 0.6985 breakdown point and 50% fib (0.6986) opens the 61.8% at 0.6991, then 0.7000 psych
Slip back below the 0.6978 rba low turns the bounce into a failed reclaim and puts the 0.6966 session low back in play
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility risk
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7007, now retracing the NY decline.
AUD stayed heavy after the dovish RBA hike. The London rally was rejected just above 0.7000 psych at 0.7007, and the NY decline printed lower highs down to a 0.69655 session low on a firm, yield-driven USD. The late-NY bounce is pushing back toward the 0.6978 post-rba low and the 38.2% retracement near 0.6981, with RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6960
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.6991, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6978 post-rba low and 0.6981 (38.2%) breaks the NY lower-high chain, with the 61.8% fib at 0.6991 next
Failure at 0.6978 followed by a break of the 0.69655 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6960 round number
A reclaim of 0.7000 psych would negate the post-RBA downtrend read
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC), then AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC (y/y f/c 4.0%), could materially shift this read
Lower highs off London high; post-RBA low broken in NY.
The RBA's hike spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy into the 0.6978 rba low. London's recovery stalled at the 0.7007 london high, and a firm, yield-driven USD took NY through the rba low to a 0.69655 session low. Late NY shows small higher lows off that session low, with price pressing the descending trendline from the london high and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6978 rba low reopens the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7007 london high
Break below the 0.69655 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6950 round number
Rejection at the descending trendline from the london high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could jolt the USD leg this hour
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC (y/y f/c 4.0%) could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 29 · price 0.69705
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:00 UTC; Asian range low broken.
The RBA-hike spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hesitancy, and a firm USD carried NY through the 0.6978 rba low to a session low at 0.6966. Lower highs at 0.7007, 0.6996 and the 0.6981 lower high define a descending trendline. Late NY is holding just off the low with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.69655
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69814, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6978 (rba low) puts price back inside the Asian range and undercuts the range-break read
Break of the 0.6981 lower high and the descending trendline, near the 38.2% fib of the NY decline, would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6966 session low extends the lower-low chain; 0.7000 round number caps above
Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00 UTC) on October-hike odds, then AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since 0.7007 midday high; post-RBA range broken lower.
The RBA pop to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's presser, and a failed retest near the 0.7000 round number at midday started a lower-highs sequence. NY hours broke the 0.6978 rba low as USD firmed on 5.2%+ yields, printing a 0.69655 session low late in the session. RSI(14) sits near 24, stretched but not extreme, with ATR at about 5 pips.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.6991, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6978 rba low negates the range break
A bounce stalling at the fib 61.8 (0.6991), below the lower-highs line, keeps the downtrend read intact
Loss of the 0.69655 session low exposes the 0.6950 psych level
Fed's Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg today
Australian August CPI in ~8.5h (01:30 UTC, y/y f/c 4.0%) is the next major risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7007 London high; post-RBA low broken.
Supply capped the London high at 0.7007 and the rebound unwound through NY. Price broke the 0.6978 rba low from the Bullock-driven RBA reversal and is printing a new session low near 0.6967, with a firm, yield-driven USD adding pressure. RSI(14) near 25 is stretched and the lower highs trendline off the 0.6996 swing high remains intact.
Support: 0.69667, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69958, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6978 rba low would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 0.6996 swing high breaks the lower highs chain; the 0.7007 london high sits above
Failure to hold the 0.6967 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could shift the USD leg; AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through NY hours, post-RBA low broken.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' spiked AUD/USD to 0.7029 at 04:30 UTC before Bullock's hesitancy reversed it to 0.6978. London's recovery stalled at the 0.7007 London high. A firm USD in NY hours then broke the post-RBA low to a 0.6972 session low, with lower highs capping each bounce. RSI(14) near 27 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69723
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6978 post-RBA low would turn the break into a false break
NY lower highs trendline near 0.6980 capping; a reclaim of the 0.7000 round number neutralises the NY decline
Failure to hold the 0.6972 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams and Waller (18:00–19:00 UTC) and AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Acceptance back above the 0.7007 London high would break the NY lower-high sequence
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY session · RSI 30 · price 0.69743
Post-RBA range low broken, fresh session low at 0.6972.
The London-NY transition pop was rejected at the 0.7007 ny high, just under the 0.7010 fib cited in the market digest. NY hours have printed lower highs under the falling trendline since, taking out the 0.6978 rba low to a session low at 0.6972 as a firm USD compounds the dovish read of the RBA hike. RSI(14) is near 30 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.69723
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69958, 0.70067
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6978 rba low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6972 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 0.6996 swing high breaks the NY lower-high structure and the falling trendline
Fed speakers Barr, Goolsbee, Williams and Waller (16:40-19:00 UTC) are the near-term USD risk
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~9h, f/c 4.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London high; NY broke the rba low.
Bullock's hesitancy reversed the RBA pop from 0.7029, and London's rebound stalled at the 0.7007 london high. NY then made lower highs and printed a session low at 0.6972 under the 0.6978 rba low as the firm USD weighed. RSI(14) is near 33, soft but not oversold, and price is stalling just below the broken level.
Support: 0.69723, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69936, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6978 rba low marks the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6972 session low opens the 0.6950 psych level
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib at 0.6994 and the descending highs line undoes the NY lower-high sequence; the 0.7007 london high caps above
Fed speakers Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) on October hike odds
AU August CPI at 01:30Z (~9.5h) could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in NY · RSI 36 · price 0.69775
Lower high at 0.7007, break below post-RBA low.
The RBA pop to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's comments. London then capped at a 0.7007 lower high with rejection just above 0.7000 psych, and NY hours broke the 0.6978 rba low to a 0.6972 session low under a firm USD. Price is now retesting 0.6978 from below, and RSI(14) near 36 is not stretched.
Support: 0.69723
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69854, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6985 (fib 38.2 of the NY drop) undercuts the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6972 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Break of the descending trendline from the 0.7007 lower high shifts structure back to range
Fed's Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z) on October hike odds could move the USD leg
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low in NY hours · RSI 30 · price 0.69794
Lower high at 0.7007, break below the 0.6978 post-RBA low.
The 'dovish hike' fade is extending. The London rally stalled at a lower high of 0.7007 and failed to hold 0.7000. The NY session has since broken under the 0.6978 post-RBA low to a new low at 0.6977 as a firm USD adds pressure. RSI(14) is near 30, not yet extreme. ATR(14) is about 5.4 pips.
Support: 0.6977
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.6996, 0.7007
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6984 prior low would mark the dip under 0.6978 as a false break
A recovery through the 38.2% selloff fib (~0.6988) and the 0.6996 swing high would challenge the lower-highs trendline
Acceptance below the 0.6977 new low leaves no intraday reference beneath in this window
Fed speakers through NY hours (Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could shift the USD leg
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC (~10h) is the next event risk for this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 34 · price 0.69837
Lower-high sequence from 0.7007, pressing the London low.
The post-RBA pop to 0.7029 reversed to 0.6978 after Bullock said the Board had debated holding. London's recovery met rejection at 0.7007, just above the 0.7000 round number, and the first NY hours printed a lower high at 0.6996. Price is now back at the London low near 0.6980, with RSI(14) at 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.6996, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.6978 post-rba low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 0.7000 round number and the falling trendline invalidates the lower-high read; 0.7007 london high above
Fed speakers through NY (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend since RBA spike, now ranging · RSI 38 · price 0.69883
Lower highs from 0.7029 inside a 0.6978–0.7007 range.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's hold-debate remarks and set a 0.6978 range low. London's rally was rejected at the 0.7007 London high, a lower high. NY has held 0.6984 as the NY low despite the soft JOLTS print, and price is compressing near 0.6988, below the 0.7000 psych level and both EMAs.
Support: 0.69841, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6984 NY low exposes the 0.6978–0.6980 range low
Reclaim of 0.7000 psych and a close above the 0.7007 London high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman through Waller) could shift USD pricing within the session
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC tomorrow is the next major volatility event for the range
Holding below the 61.8% fib of the London upswing keeps the lower-highs read intact
14:32 UTC
Post-RBA downtrend, now ranging · RSI 44 · price 0.69918
Range 0.6978–0.7007, lower high at London high, higher low in NY.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' turned a spike to 0.7029 (RBA spike) into a 50-pip drop to the 0.6978 RBA low, and London's rebound was rejected at the 0.7007 London high, short of the 61.8% fib at 0.7010. The early-NY dip after soft JOLTS held the 0.6984 NY low, leaving price mid-range just under psych 0.7000 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.6984, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7007 London high and the 61.8% fib at 0.7010 breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.7029 RBA spike
Failure at the 0.6984 NY low exposes the 0.6978 RBA low; a close below it extends the post-RBA leg
Psych 0.7000 has capped price since the London reversal
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC could shift USD pricing within the next few bars
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC tomorrow is the next major AUD catalyst
The RBA's 'dovish hike' spiked AUD/USD to the 0.7029 rba spike before Bullock's hold-debate comments knocked it to the 0.6978 rba low. London's rebound faded at the 0.7007 london high, just shy of the 61.8% retrace, and the pair now sits at 0.6991 in the first hour of NY, pinned under the 0.7000 round number above the 0.6984 ny low printed ahead of the soft JOLTS data.
Support: 0.6984, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7007 london high breaks the lower-high sequence off the rba spike
Failure at the 0.6984 ny low exposes the 0.6978 rba low, the range floor
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could shift USD after the JOLTS miss
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC is the key event risk for this range
Range 0.6978–0.7007 after the RBA reversal, higher low at 0.6984.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7029 rba high, then Bullock's hold-debate remarks drove it to the 0.6978 rba low. London retested that low near 0.6980 and held. Early NY saw a rejection at the 0.7007 ny high back under the 0.7000 psych, and the pullback printed a higher low at 0.6984; price now sits mid-range, just above ema20.
Support: 0.69841, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70067, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7000 psych and the 0.7007 ny high breaks the post-RBA range top and exposes the 0.7029 rba high
Loss of the 0.6984 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and reopens the 0.6978 rba low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Williams/Waller Fedspeak, could move the USD leg materially this session
AU Aug monthly CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next AUD catalyst for this range
13:47 UTC
Sideways after post-RBA selloff · RSI 51 · price 0.69924
0.6978–0.7007 range, rising lows.
Bullock's hold-debate reveal reversed the RBA spike at 0.7029 and set the 0.6978 RBA low. Since then price has ranged below 0.7000 psych, with rising lows but a rejection at the 0.7007 London high. Early NY session defended a higher low at 0.6984 (NY low) into JOLTS; RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.69841, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70067, 0.70287
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak, could break the range
M15 close above the 0.7007 London high opens the 0.7029 RBA spike
Loss of the 0.6984 NY low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.6978 RBA low
Range 0.6978–0.7007 after a lower high was rejected at the RBA fib.
The RBA spike to the 0.7029 rba high reversed on Bullock's hold-debate remarks, printing the 0.6978 rba low, and London held a matching london low at 0.6980. The London recovery met rejection at 0.7007, the london high, between the 50% and 61.8% of the rba fib. Price has slipped back under the 0.7000 round number into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6978 rba low confirms a lower-low and breaks the range floor
Reclaiming the 0.7000 round number and a close above the 0.7007 london high negates the fib rejection and exposes the 0.7029 rba high
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then Fedspeak through 19:00, could materially shift this read
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed is the next major risk for the range
Lower highs below 0.7029; London base 0.6980–0.7000, price back mid-range.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 reversed after Bullock revealed the board debated a hold, printing the 0.6978 rba low. London built a 0.6980–0.7000 base; a late rally stalled at the 0.7007 rally high and was rejected back through the 0.7000 round number. Price now sits near the 50% fib of that rally into the NY open, capped by the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70067, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7007 rally high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 0.6980 london low and 0.6978 rba low resumes the post-RBA leg down
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, plus Fedspeak through NY hours, could materially shift this read
Aug AU monthly CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific driver for the 0.7000 round number
Lower highs from the RBA spike; range 0.6978–0.7007.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' set a 0.7029 rba spike before Bullock's comments on a hold debate drove the drop to the 0.6978 rba low. London held a higher low at the 0.6980 london low, and its move above psych 0.7000 met rejection at 0.7007, keeping the lower-highs line intact. Price is testing the 0.6992 ny low at the 50% retrace of the London leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.6992, 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7007, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7007 rejection high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.7029 rba spike
Failure to hold the 0.6992 ny low and 0.6980 london low exposes the 0.6978 rba low
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed is the next major AUD-side risk
Double bottom at 0.6978, higher lows through London, testing 61.8% retrace.
The RBA hike to 4.60% produced a spike to 0.7029 at 04:30 UTC. Bullock's hold-debate comments then drove a 50-pip slide to the 0.6978 RBA low. London built a double bottom there and climbed a rising trendline back above 0.7000 psych, and price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7009, 0.70215, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.7009 opens the 0.7022 presser high, then the 0.7029 RBA spike
Break of the rising trendline and loss of 0.7000 psych would put price back in the 0.6980–0.7000 post-RBA range, with the 0.6978 RBA low next
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak through NY hours could materially shift this read
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed is the next major AUD event risk
Double bottom 0.6978/0.6980, higher lows since London.
The RBA's dovish hike spiked AUD to 0.7029 in Asia, then reversed to 0.6978. London built a double bottom with the 0.6980 low, and a rising support line from that low has lifted price back to the 0.7000 round number, sitting just above the ema20. Price is now capped at the 0.7004 session high, near the 50% retrace of the RBA drop, as NY opens.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6992, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.70037, 0.70093, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7004 session high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.7009, then the 0.7029 rba spike
Break of the rising support line and the 0.7000 round number, then the ema20 near 0.6992, puts the 0.6978 double btm back in focus
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC, could shift this read via USD
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC tomorrow is the next AUD-specific risk
11:47 UTC
Recovery off lows, stalling at 0.7000 · RSI 60 · price 0.69987
Double bottom 0.6978/0.6980, neckline retest near 0.7000.
The reversal after Bullock's RBA presser took AUDUSD from the 0.7029 rba spike to a 0.6978 two-month low in Asia. London held 0.6980 and formed a double bottom, then rallied to a 0.7003 session high at the 50% level of the rba drop fib before stalling. Price is back just under 0.7000 late in London, holding above ema20 at 0.6995, with a flat EMA50 near 0.7000 capping the move.
Support: 0.6995, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7003, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close back below ema20 at 0.6995 weakens the double bottom retest; a break of the 0.6978 2-month low confirms a lower low
A close above the 0.7003 session high clears the 50% of the rba drop fib and opens 0.7029 rba spike
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak into NY hours could materially shift this read; AU Aug CPI follows at 01:30 UTC
Higher-low chain off a double bottom at 0.6978/0.6980, testing 0.7000.
AUD faded its RBA 'dovish hike' pop at 0.7029, then slid to 0.6978 after Bullock's comments. The 0.6980 London low matched that level to form a double bottom. A higher-low chain has since reclaimed the 0.7000 psych level, capped so far at the 0.7003 session high, just under the fib 61.8 of the RBA drop near 0.7009.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69797, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.70027, 0.7009, 0.70215
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.7000 psych returns price to the post-RBA range
Failure to hold the 0.6980 london low and 0.6978 rba low would negate the double bottom
Acceptance above the fib 61.8 near 0.7009 opens the 0.7021 post-RBA high (post-rba hi)
Higher-lows trendline break during London-NY transition ends the recovery sequence
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Post-RBA selloff, recovering through late London · RSI 65 · price 0.70007
Double bottom 0.6978/0.6980, range top reclaimed.
The RBA 'dovish hike' flushed AUD from the 0.7029 spike high to the 0.6978 RBA low. The London low at 0.6980 held as a double bottom, and rising support has since lifted price through the 0.6999 range top to 0.7001, with RSI(14) near 65. Price is sitting at the 50% retracement of the RBA drop, with the 61.8% fib at 0.7009 overhead.
Support: 0.6999, 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7009, 0.7021, 0.7029
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6999 range top reopens the 0.6980 London low and the 0.6978 RBA low
A close above the 0.7009 61.8% fib exposes the 0.7021 pre-RBA high and the 0.7029 RBA spike
A break of the rising support from the London low undercuts the recovery read
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could shift this read; Aus CPI follows at 01:30 UTC Wed
11:03 UTC
Post-RBA drop, intraday rebound testing range top · RSI 62 · price 0.69973
London range 0.6980–0.6999 above the 0.6978 low, higher low in place.
AUD faded the 0.7029 RBA spike and dropped about 50 pips to the 0.6978 2-week low during Bullock's presser, with firm US yields adding pressure. London has held a 0.6980–0.6999 range, printing a higher low at 0.6980, and price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of that drop, pressing the session high just under 0.7000 psych/ema50.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7009, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7000 psych/ema50 clears the session high and exposes the 0.7009 61.8% fib
Failure at 0.7000 keeps the range intact; loss of the 0.6980 higher low reopens the 0.6978 2-wk low
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift USD during NY hours
Aus monthly CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed is the next AUD driver and could break the post-RBA range
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling after the post-RBA sell-off · RSI 52 · price 0.69922
Post-RBA range 0.6978–0.6999, marginal higher low in London.
The RBA's in-line hike to 4.60% produced a 04:30 UTC rba spike to 0.7029 that fully reversed. Bullock's hesitancy and a firm USD drove the RBA sell-off to the 0.6978 post-rba low. London has since held a 0.6978–0.6999 range, printing a marginal higher low at the 0.6980 london low, and price is now back near 0.6992, just under the rebound high and the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.69797, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.69986, 0.7000, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6999 rebound high and the 0.7000 psych handle clears the 38.2% fib of the RBA sell-off and opens the 0.7029 rba spike high
Failure to hold the 0.6980 london low exposes the 0.6978 post-rba low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into NY hours, could materially shift this read
Australia August CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed is the next AUD-side catalyst for range resolution
10:32 UTC
Downtrend post-RBA, basing in a London range · RSI 54 · price 0.69918
Lower high at 0.7029, then a 0.6978–0.6999 range; London low retest held.
The RBA's 'dovish hike' spike to 0.7029 faded, and Bullock's presser drove AUD/USD through the pre-rba low at 0.7005 to an rba low of 0.6978, with firm USD adding pressure. London has held a 0.6980–0.6995 range, and the 09:30 UTC retest of the london low drew buyers. Price is back near the london high, still under the 0.7000 psych level and EMA20 (~0.6998) and below the 38.2% retrace of the rba sell-off.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.69954, 0.7000, 0.70051
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7000 psych and EMA20 breaks the London range and opens the pre-rba low at 0.7005, which is also the 50% of the rba sell-off
Failure to hold the 0.6980 london low and 0.6978 rba low extends the lower-low sequence
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak, could shift the read during NY hours
Australia August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific catalyst
The in-line RBA hike spiked AUDUSD to the 0.7029 RBA high, then Bullock's hesitancy drove it to the 0.6978 post-RBA low; the bounce stalled near the 38.2% fib of that move. Mid-London, price is printing lower highs below the 0.6995 session high and the 0.7000 psych level, with the 0.6980 London low tested once. RSI(14) sits near 40.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.6995, 0.7000, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6978 post-rba low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and 0.6995 session high opens a retest of 0.7000 psych
Only a reclaim of the 0.7029 RBA high would negate the RBA-move downtrend
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak into the NY session could shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in London · RSI 37 · price 0.6983
Lower highs since RBA fade, pressing the RBA low.
The RBA's dovish-hike spike to 0.7029 was fully rejected, and Bullock's presser drove the fade to a 0.6978 RBA low. London has since printed a chain of lower highs capped near 0.6992 and is now pressing back toward that low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) around 37.
Support: 0.6978
Resistance: 0.6992, 0.7000, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 RBA low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6992 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.7000 psych level sits just above
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Australian August CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed is the next major AUD risk
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower after the RBA drop · RSI 41 · price 0.69823
Lower highs since 06:00 UTC, pressing post-RBA low.
The RBA's dovish hike produced a spike to the 0.7029 rba spike high, rejected there, then collapsed to the 0.6978 rba low as Bullock said a hold had been considered. London has printed lower highs from the 0.6995 london high and is now testing the session low at 0.6980, still capped below the 0.7000 psych level.
Support: 0.69797, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.69954, 0.7000, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 rba low confirms a lower-low and breaks the post-RBA floor
Close back above the lower highs line and the 0.6995 london high negates the grind lower and puts 0.7000 psych back in play
Fedspeak from Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift USD and this read in the next few hours
09:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after the RBA drop · RSI 38 · price 0.6984
Lower highs above a flat 0.6978–0.6983 base.
Bullock's cautious RBA presser flipped the initial pop to the 0.7029 rba high into a 50-pip drop to the 0.6978 rba low, breaking the Asian range low near 0.7007. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 0.6983 session low and a trendline of lower highs from 0.6999, with RSI(14) near 38 and firm USD on yields capping rebounds below the 0.7000 psych handle.
Support: 0.6983, 0.6978, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.6992, 0.7000, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 rba low extends the post-RBA leg and puts the 0.6975 channel floor in play
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 0.6992 and the 0.7000 psych level breaks the compression, with the 0.7029 rba high the next reference
Hold of the 0.6983 session low keeps the London range intact
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.69846
Post-RBA selloff, then a tight range with lower highs pressing the floor.
Bullock's presser flipped the RBA pop to 0.7029 into a drop to the 0.6978 presser low. The bounce stalled near the 38.2% fib at 0.6999, below the 0.7000 psych level, and has since printed a chain of lower highs along a trendline. Early London has stayed capped under the 0.6995 London high and is now testing the 0.6983–0.6985 swing low floor, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69826, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.69954, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6983 swing low and the 0.6978 presser low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 0.6995 London high breaks the compression; 0.7000 psych is next overhead
Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read
Aus August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC (trimmed mean f/c 3.6%) is the next AUD-specific risk
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after the post-RBA drop · RSI 44 · price 0.69912
Lower highs above a flat 0.6985 base, below the prior 24h range.
Bullock's presser flipped the RBA spike at 0.7029 into a 50-pip drop. Price broke through the 0.7005 pre-RBA low, left the prior 24h range and printed the RBA low at 0.6978. London has compressed beneath the post-RBA high at 0.6999, with lower highs along a descending trendline over a flat London low at 0.6985. The drop has not yet retraced 38.2%, and ATR is shrinking toward 8 pips.
Support: 0.6985, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.6999, 0.7005, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6999 post-RBA high and the descending trendline ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6985 London low exposes the 0.6978 RBA low
Reclaim of 0.7005 pre-RBA low puts price back inside the prior range
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could break the compression
Aus CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific risk
Lower highs under 0.7000 inside 0.6978–0.6999 post-drop range.
The RBA hike spike was rejected at 0.7029 (rba high). Price then broke to a 0.6978 swing low once Bullock said the board had weighed a hold, with a firm USD adding to the move. Early London is coiling in a tight 0.6985–0.6995 band under a descending trendline from the 0.6999 high, RSI(14) neutral near 43 and ATR(14) contracting to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.69851, 0.6978, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.7000 psych and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high read and puts the fib 38.2% (about 0.6997) and 0.7029 rba high in view
Break of the 0.6985 london low exposes the 0.6978 swing low; failure there opens 0.6975 channel support
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read via USD
AU August CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific risk to the range
Lower highs below 0.7000, tight London range above post-RBA low.
The RBA's in-line hike at 04:30 UTC produced a spike to 0.7029 that was fully rejected after Bullock said the board weighed a hold. Price broke 0.7000 to a post-RBA low at 0.6978. London is compressing between the 0.6985 London low and a descending trendline, capped below the 38.2% fib near 0.6997. RSI(14) is near 39 and ATR(14) is about 8.5 pips.
Support: 0.69851, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and 0.7000 psych would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6985 London low exposes the 0.6978 post-RBA low
A reclaim of the 38.2% fib near 0.6997 would put the 0.7029 RBA spike high back in focus
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AU August CPI at 01:30 UTC tomorrow is the next AUD-specific risk
Post-RBA range break below Asia low, lower highs into early London.
The RBA's in-line hike to 4.60% spiked price to the rba high at 0.7029, but the move faded. Price broke the Asia low at 0.7005 and psych 0.70, printing the rba low at 0.6978 during the presser as the USD stayed bid. Early London is compressing between the london low at 0.6985 and 0.6995 with a chain of lower highs, RSI(14) at 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69851, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70051, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 0.70 and the lower highs trendline (near the 38.2% of the rba fade fib) would neutralise the downtrend read
Failure to hold the london low at 0.6985 exposes the rba low at 0.6978, near channel support at 0.6975
A reclaim of the asia low at 0.7005 turns the break below it into a false break
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break lower, pennant forming below 0.7000.
The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% spiked price to the rba high at 0.7029, but the move was rejected during the presser. Price broke the asian low at 0.7005 and printed a session low at 0.6978 as the USD bid dominated. Early London is compressing in a pennant, with lower highs capped under the 0.7000 psych and a higher low at 0.6985. RSI(14) sits near 39, off the lows.
Support: 0.69854, 0.6978, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70051, 0.70287
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7005 asian low re-enters the prior range and would invalidate the break read.
A close below the 0.6985 higher low breaks the pennant and puts the 0.6978 session low back in play.
Failure at 0.6978 exposes 0.6975 channel support. A hold keeps the pennant intact.
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, with Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Broke below Asian range; tight consolidation with lower highs above the RBA low.
AUD sold the RBA hike. The spike to the 0.7029 rba high reversed, and the presser broke the Asian range, printing a 0.6978 rba low. Early London is compressing between the 0.6983 range floor and 0.6997 range top with lower highs, the bounce capped near the 38.2% of the rba fib. RSI(14) is near 38 and both EMAs sit overhead.
Support: 0.6983, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.6997, 0.7005, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 rba low extends the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 0.6983 range floor exposes the rba low
Close above the 0.6997 range top and a reclaim of the 0.7005 asia low would negate the range break read
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since RBA spike; tight 0.6978–0.6999 box below 0.70.
The RBA hike at 04:30 UTC popped AUDUSD to the 0.7029 rba high, then the presser sell-off broke 0.70 to a 0.6978 rba low as the USD stayed bid on Fed-hike odds. Early London is holding a 0.6978–0.6999 box, with the range top sitting just under the 38.2% fib of the RBA sell-off and a swing low at 0.6983. RSI(14) is at 39 and ATR(14) about 10 pips.
Support: 0.69826, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.69986, 0.70287
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6978 rba low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.6975 channel support
An M15 close above the 0.6999 range top and back through 0.70 reclaims the 38.2% fib of the RBA sell-off and challenges the box read
Failure to hold the 0.6983 swing low puts the rba low back in focus
Musalem 11:30 UTC, JOLTS and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, and Fedspeak into NY hours could shift this read
Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific catalyst
Asian range broken lower; tight base above RBA low under lower highs.
The RBA's in-line 25bp hike at 04:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD to 0.7029, but the rba spike was fully rejected. The presser sell-off broke the asian low at 0.7005 and printed an rba low at 0.6978 as the USD stayed bid on yields. Early London is compressing between 0.6983 and 0.6999, with lower highs under the round number and the 38.2% fib of the post-RBA drop.
Support: 0.69826, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70051, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7000 round number and 38.2% fib reopens the asian low at 0.7005
Loss of the 0.6983 higher low exposes the 0.6978 rba low and the 0.6975 channel support
A break of the lower-highs line ends the post-RBA consolidation read
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC Wed (~18h) is the next major AUD catalyst
Break below 0.7005 range floor, lower highs, compressing 0.6983–0.6999.
The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% spiked AUD/USD to the 0.7029 rba high. It was rejected, and the presser selloff broke the 0.7005 range floor to a 0.6978 session low as the USD bid on US yields dominated. Into London open, price is compressing between the 0.6983 swing low and the psych 0.7000, capped near the 50% fib of the presser drop with lower highs intact. RSI(14) is 39 and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 0.69826, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70051, 0.70287
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.7005 range floor puts the breakdown in question; the 0.7029 rba high sits above.
Failure to hold the 0.6983 swing low and the 0.6978 session low exposes the 0.6975 channel support.
A break of the lower highs trendline would neutralise the post-presser sequence.
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift this read.
Asian range broken lower post-RBA; pinching between 0.6983 higher low and 0.7000.
The in-line RBA hike at 04:30 UTC spiked to 0.7029 (rba spike) and faded. Bullock's presser window then broke the Asian low at 0.7005 and 0.7000 psych, printing a 0.6978 session low. Price is now retesting 0.7000 from below at the 38.2% fib, with a higher low at 0.6983 into London open. The firm USD backdrop from yields and Fed-hike bets is capping the rebound.
Support: 0.69826, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70051, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7000 psych and the 0.7005 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.6983 higher low exposes the 0.6978 session low
A reclaim of the rba spike high at 0.7029 would negate the post-RBA breakdown
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Broke below Asian range and 0.7000; lower high at 0.6999, higher low forming at 0.6983.
The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% produced a two-way spike to the 0.7029 rba high. During Bullock's presser price broke the Asian low near 0.7005 and the 0.7000 psych level, bottoming at 0.6978 (presser low). The late-Asia rebound was rejected at 0.6999, near the 38.2% fib, and a higher low at 0.6983 is holding with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.69826, 0.6978
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7005, 0.70287
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7000 psych and 0.7005 asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6983 higher low and 0.6978 presser low exposes the 0.6975 channel support
London open in ~30 min, Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Post-RBA break below Asian range, retesting 0.7000 from below.
The in-line 25bp RBA hike produced a rejected spike to the 0.7029 rba spike high at 04:30 UTC. Bullock's presser then pushed price out of the Asian range (asian low 0.7005) and through the psych 0.7000 to a 0.6978 session low. The late-Asia bounce is stalling at the 38.2% fib (0.6997), just under 0.7000, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR(14) around 8 pips.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7005, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.7005 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakdown
Rejection at the 0.7000 psych and a break of the 0.6978 session low exposes 0.6975 channel sup
London open at 07:00 UTC, then JOLTS and Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, could shift this read; AU CPI Wed 01:30 UTC
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower after RBA · RSI 31 · price 0.69901
Broke below 24h range floor 0.7005, lower low at 0.6978.
The in-line RBA hike spiked AUD/USD to the rba high at 0.7029, which was rejected. The pair then dropped through the 0.7000 psych level and the prior low at 0.7005 as Bullock's press conference began, printing a session low at 0.6978. The first bounce is stalling just under 0.7000, near the 38.2% of the rba spike fib, while ATR has expanded to about 8 pips.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7005, 0.7029
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7005 prior low reclaims the old range and negates the break
Failure to hold the 0.6978 session low exposes the 0.6975 channel sup cited in the digest
Bullock's tone on further hikes may still be feeding through during the presser
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC during NY hours are USD-side risk for this read
Australia CPI on Wed at 01:30 UTC is the next scheduled AUD catalyst
A test of the lower-highs line near 0.7029 would put the rba high back in play
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 28 · price 0.69892
Break below 0.7000 and the overnight range floor during Asia; new session low.
The RBA's in-line hike to 4.60% sparked a spike to 0.70287 that was faded within the bar. After a post-rba hi at 0.70215, a 31-pip bar during Bullock's presser cut through 0.7000 psych and the rba low at 0.70051 to a session low at 0.69892. RSI(14) is near 28 and ATR has expanded to about 63 pips, with the 38.2% retrace of the post-rba drop near 0.7004.
Support: 0.69892, 0.6975
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70051, 0.70215
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.7000 psych and the 0.70051 rba low would mark the break below as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.69892 session low exposes the 0.6975 channel sup
A reclaim of the 0.70215 post-rba hi would negate the post-decision downtrend
Bullock presser tone on further hikes could still reverse this leg; JOLTS and Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC add USD risk
Australia CPI Wed 01:30 UTC is the next major AUD catalyst
Lower highs from Monday's NY high; RBA spike set the Asian range at 0.7005–0.7029, price back mid-range.
The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% at 04:30 UTC swept the Asian low to the rba low at 0.7005. It then spiked to the rba spike hi at 0.7029, the same area Monday's NY session was rejected from, and faded into a 0.7011–0.7021 post-RBA range. Late in the Asia session, price sits near the 38.2% fib of the drop from the ny high at 0.7039 to the RBA low. RSI(14) is around 49 and price is hugging flat EMAs.
Support: 0.7011, 0.7005, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.7029, 0.7039
What it said to watch
Bullock's presser at 05:30 UTC, under way on the current bar, is the likely trigger to resolve the post-rba low 0.7011 / post-rba hi 0.7021 range
M15 close above the rba spike hi at 0.7029 clears the twice-rejected zone and exposes Monday's ny high at 0.7039
Loss of the post-rba low at 0.7011 re-exposes the rba low at 0.7005 and the 0.7000 psych handle
Failure to reclaim the 50% fib at 0.7022 keeps the lower-high sequence from the ny high intact
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak through NY hours can shift the USD side of the read
Asian range low swept on RBA, price recovered to mid-range below the RBA spike high.
The in-line RBA hike to 4.60% at 04:30 UTC drove a two-way 24-pip bar. It swept the Asian low to 0.7005 and was rejected at the RBA high 0.7029, with the USD bid capping follow-through. Late in the Asia session, price holds above the post-RBA low 0.7015, between the 38.2% and 50% of the fib from yesterday's NY high 0.7039 to the RBA low.
Support: 0.70153, 0.70051, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the RBA high 0.7029 opens the path to yesterday's NY high 0.7039
Failure to hold the post-RBA low 0.7015 exposes the RBA low 0.7005 and the 0.7000 round number
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk
05:03 UTC
Lower highs since Monday NY peak, now neutral · RSI 54 · price 0.70169
RBA bar swept both ends of the Asian range and closed mid-range.
The in-line RBA hike bar swept both sides of the Asian range, spiking from the 0.7005 rba low to the 0.7029 rba high, then settled near 0.7017. Price is just under the 38.2% fib of the monday high–rba low drop and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 54. The lower-high sequence from the 0.7039 monday high set in NY is still intact.
Support: 0.70082, 0.70051, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC could extend or reverse the RBA sweep.
An M15 close above the 0.7020 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 0.7029 rba high back into view.
Loss of the 0.7008 asian low and the 0.7005 rba low exposes the 0.7000 psych level.
Lower highs from ny high; RBA bar sets 0.7005–0.7029 range.
The RBA decision bar swept under the asian low to the rba low at 0.7005, spiked to the rba high at 0.7029, then settled back near 0.7016. That leaves a 24-pip whipsaw range, with rejection at the top and price sitting just below the asian high at 0.7020. Prior structure was a run of lower highs off yesterday's ny high at 0.7039, as a firm USD capped rallies.
Support: 0.70082, 0.70051, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
Bullock press conference at 05:30 GMT could break the RBA-bar range in either direction
M15 close above the rba high at 0.7029 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the ny high at 0.7039 in play
Acceptance above the asian high at 0.7020 lifts price back through the 50% retrace (0.7022) of the ny high to rba low move
Failure at the asian low at 0.7008, then the rba low at 0.7005, exposes the 0.7000 psych level
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Lower highs from 0.70387; RBA bar swept Asian low, reclaimed range top.
The RBA decision bar dipped under the Asian low to 0.70051, then ran 14 pips to close at 0.70192. That puts price at the Asian high near 0.7020 and above the descending trendline from yesterday's 0.70387 NY day high. Lower highs still define the structure until 0.7020 and the prior high at 0.7029 give way; ATR(14) jumped to about 4 pips on the release.
Support: 0.70051, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.7020 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.7029 prior high next overhead
Return below the 0.70051 rba low turns the sweep into a false start and exposes 0.7000 psych
Bullock's press conference at 05:30 GMT could materially shift this read, given crowded AUD shorts
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during NY hours are the next USD-side risk
Lower highs in Asia session, price at the session low.
Asia session is fading into the RBA decision. Lower highs at the 0.7020 session high and the 0.7017 lower high have pushed price back onto the 0.7008 asian low, just above the 0.7007 prior low. Monday's spike high at 0.7039, on the Iran sanctions-relief headline, fully reversed. ATR near 3 pips shows how compressed the range is ahead of the event.
Support: 0.70082, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70172, 0.70201, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision and statement at 04:30 GMT (~15 min), then Bullock at 05:30 GMT. Either could break the compressed range in either direction.
An M15 close below the 0.7008 asian low and the 0.7007 prior low exposes the 0.7000 psych level.
A close back above the 0.7017 lower high, then the 0.7020 session high, breaks the lower-high sequence.
A post-RBA run toward the 0.7039 spike high would retest the level where Monday's rally was rejected.
Lower highs off 0.7020 Asian high, price pressing the 0.7008-0.7010 base.
Late Asia session: AUD/USD has faded from the 0.7020 Asian high through a lower high at 0.7017 and is back on the 0.7008 Asian low / 0.7007 Monday low base. Monday's spike high at 0.7039 on the Iran-sanctions report fully reversed as the firm USD reasserted. Price is below both EMAs, with ATR(14) compressed to about 3.4 pips ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70082, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70172, 0.70201, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock at 05:30 GMT will likely overwhelm this compressed range; hawkish guidance is the asymmetric risk given crowded AUD shorts
M15 close below the 0.7008 Asian low and 0.7007 Monday low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Close above the 0.7017 lower high and the 0.7020 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Spike high at 0.7039 is the upper reference if a squeeze extends
AUDUSD is compressing inside a 0.7008–0.7020 Asian range late in the Asia session, 45 minutes before the RBA. Lower highs have held since Monday's NY spike to the monday high at 0.7039 was faded. The asian low at 0.7008 sits just above the prior low at 0.7007, and RSI(14) is neutral near 51 with price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.70082, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock's 05:30 GMT presser are likely to break the Asian range; the ~3-pip ATR understates event risk
An M15 close below the prior low at 0.7007 exposes the 0.7000 psych level
A close above the asian high at 0.7020 breaks the lower highs trendline
Hawkish guidance squeezing crowded AUD shorts would put the monday high at 0.7039 back in view
03:32 UTC
Range-bound after a sequence of lower highs · RSI 52 · price 0.70145
Lower highs from 0.70387, lows flat near 0.7008; late in the Asian range.
Late Asia session, price is holding mid-range at 0.70145, inside 0.70082–0.70201, with EMA20 flat and ATR near 3 pips. The Monday NY spike to 0.70387 was fully rejected and a sequence of lower highs followed. Lows are holding near 0.7008, forming an unconfirmed double bottom ahead of the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70117, 0.70082, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and the Bullock presser at 05:30 GMT are likely to resolve the Asian range; hike guidance is the swing factor
An M15 close above the 0.70201 asian high confirms the double bottom and breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.70287 prior high sits above
Loss of the 0.70117 higher low reopens the 0.70082 asian low; a break there exposes the 0.7000 psych figure
A move back toward the 0.70387 spike high would negate the lower-highs read
Tight Asian range 0.7008-0.7020 below yesterday's highs.
Price is holding a 0.7008-0.7020 range in the Asia session ahead of the RBA. The rebound off the 0.7008 asian low was rejected at the 0.7020 asian high, which lines up with the 38.2% of the spike fade from yesterday's 0.7039 Iran-headline spike high. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 49, and ATR(14) of about 3.3 pips shows pre-decision compression.
Support: 0.70082, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and the 05:30 GMT presser could break the Asian range; guidance on further hikes is the swing factor
M15 close above the 0.7020 asian high opens the 0.7029 prior high, then the 0.7039 spike high
Loss of the 0.7008 asian low and 0.7007 prior low exposes the 0.7000 psych handle
US-Iran or oil headlines hitting the USD could override the range read
Lower highs since 0.70387 spike; Asia higher low at 0.70123 off 0.70082.
Mid-Asia session: price is holding a higher low at 0.70123 after the 0.70082 Asia low, but the recovery stalled at the 0.70201 Asia high. That level is also the 38.2% fib of the drop from Monday's 0.70387 spike high, a false break rejected during NY hours on Iran sanctions headlines. Price sits mid-range between 0.7008 and the 0.70287 range top, under the lower highs line, with ATR near 3 pips ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70123, 0.70082, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and 05:30 GMT presser can expand range well beyond the current 3-pip ATR
M15 close above 0.70201 asia high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 0.70287 range top
Loss of the 0.70123 higher low puts the 0.70082 asia low and 0.7000 psych handle back in focus
Reclaim of 0.70287 range top would bring the 0.70387 spike high back into view
02:31 UTC
Range-bound, Asia rebound into resistance · RSI 56 · price 0.70189
Prior-day range 0.7007–0.7039; Asia holding the double low.
The Asia session held Monday's London low, forming a double low at 0.7008, and has bounced to the 0.7020 Asia high. That high sits on the 38.2% retrace of the NY spike fib, the fade from the rejected 0.7039 prior high. ATR(14) is compressed near 3 pips as a firm USD meets hawkish RBA pricing ahead of the decision.
Support: 0.7015, 0.70082, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70201, 0.70255, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock presser at 05:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the current compression is unlikely to survive it
An M15 close above the 0.7020 Asia high opens the 0.7025 swing high
A break below the 0.7008 double low exposes 0.7000 psych
Slipping back under the ema20 near 0.7015 returns price toward the range lows
02:02 UTC
Sideways, heavy below 0.7020 · RSI 48 · price 0.70157
Range 0.7008–0.7039, lower highs since NY spike.
Early Asia session dip held the 0.7007–0.7008 day low for a second time, and price is back at the Asia high near 0.7016. The NY spike to 0.7039 on Iran sanctions headlines was fully rejected, leaving the 0.7020 fib 38.2 as the first cap ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.7008, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7016, 0.7020, 0.7039
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock presser at 05:30 GMT will likely break this range; hawkish guidance vs a balanced tone is the swing factor
M15 close above 0.7020 fib 38.2 opens the 50% at 0.7023 and the 0.7039 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.7008 day low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Asia high at 0.7016 capping keeps price inside the overnight range
Lower highs since 0.7039; Asia low swept at 0.7008 and reclaimed.
Firmer USD yields have kept the pair on a lower-high path since Monday's 0.7039 spike high. The Asia session swept the 0.7009 Tokyo-open low to a fresh asia low at 0.7008, but the 01:30 GMT bar rejected it and closed near 0.7015. Price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41, below the 0.7020 late ny cap that lines up with the 38.2% of the spike-to-low fib, heading into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70082, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock's presser at 05:30 GMT could materially shift this read; hawkish guidance vs a one-and-done tone is the swing factor
M15 close above the 0.7020 late ny cap (38.2% of the spike-to-low fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path toward the 0.7039 spike high
Failure to hold the 0.7008 asia low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 34 · price 0.7010
Lower highs off 0.7039, Asia pressing Monday's lows.
The NY spike to the 0.7039 day high on Iran headlines was rejected, and the descending trendline has capped every bounce since. Asia slipped out of the overnight 0.7015–0.7020 drift to a 0.7009 session low, just above Monday's 0.7007 London prior low, with RSI(14) near 34 ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70086, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7013, 0.7020, 0.70387
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.7007 prior low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Recovery above the 0.7013 micro high and the 0.7020 fib 38.2 breaks the trendline lower-high sequence
RBA decision at 04:30 GMT and Bullock's 05:30 GMT presser could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.70387 spike; Asia broke below the overnight range.
The spike to 0.70387 during NY hours was fully rejected. Firm USD and higher yields left a chain of lower highs, and the quiet post-NY 0.7015–0.7020 range gave way early in the Asia session. Price now sits near the 0.70086 Asia low, just above Monday's London prior low at 0.70073 and the 0.7000 psych figure. RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR is compressed to about 2.6 pips ahead of the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70086, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and the Bullock presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the hike is priced, so guidance tone is the swing factor
M15 closes below the 0.70073 prior low expose the 0.7000 psych figure
A close back above the 0.7020 range top and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
A 38.2–50% retrace of the spike decline sits at 0.7020–0.7024, overlapping the range top; the ny high at 0.70287 is next above
US-Iran headlines and US yields remain the USD-side driver; they produced the spike high at 0.70387
Lower highs from 0.7039 spike high; Asian range broken lower.
Lower highs have followed the NY-session spike high at 0.7039, and price is capped by a descending trendline. The Asian range of 0.7015–0.7020 broke lower around 00:00 UTC, and price is now pressing Monday's 0.7007 London low, just above the 0.70 round number, with RSI(14) near 30. A firm USD, with the 10y at 2007 highs, has kept a lid on the pair into the RBA decision.
Support: 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.7020, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and presser at 05:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.7007 london low and the 0.70 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.7015 asian low and the descending trendline puts the range break in doubt
0.7020 asian high coincides with the 38.2% fib of the drop from the spike high; area to watch for rejection or break
Lower highs since the NY spike high at 0.70387, fresh session low at 0.70086 in early Asia.
Monday's NY-session jump to the 0.70387 spike high on the Iran sanctions headlines was rejected within a bar. Price has since printed a chain of lower highs and has now slipped to a fresh session low at 0.70086 in early Tuesday Asia, just above Monday's london low at 0.70073 and the 0.7000 psych. RSI(14) is near 31 and ATR is only ~2.6 pips as the range compresses ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70086, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70287, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and Bullock's presser at 05:30 UTC can override this pre-event structure outright
An M15 close below the london low at 0.70073 extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 0.7000 psych
A close back above the lower-high trendline and the 0.70200 lower high breaks the downtrend chain, with the 0.70287 prior high next
The 0.70387 spike high marks the top of the window; only a reclaim there would erase the post-rejection sequence
00:03 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 41 · price 0.70135
The NY spike to 0.70387 was rejected and fully faded. Price has since stepped down in a lower-highs sequence through the thin post-NY hours and now sits at 0.7013, just above the london low at 0.70113, with the Asian high at 0.70283 well overhead. A firm USD on 5.27% US 10y yields keeps the pair pinned near the lower half of the range into the 04:30 UTC RBA decision.
Support: 0.70113, 0.70073, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7020, 0.70283, 0.70387
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 04:30 UTC and Bullock presser at 05:30 UTC could break the range either way; ATR near 2.5 pips understates event risk
M15 close below the 0.70073 day low exposes the 0.7000 psych figure
M15 close back above the 0.7020 lower highs line breaks the post-NY fade sequence and reopens the asian high at 0.70283
Only a recovery through the 0.70387 ny spike high would take price out of Monday's range