AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 55 · price 0.69475
Lower highs/lows from the PCE spike, compressed 0.6943–0.6949 range.
The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 fully reversed during NY hours as US growth beats revived the dollar, printing a 0.6942 day low. Since the NY close, price has compressed between the 0.6944 range floor and the 0.6949 range top as the Asia session opens. ATR is near 2 pips.
Support: 0.69435, 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69505, 0.69594
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6949 range top and the 0.6951 ny shelf opens a retrace toward the 38.2% fib of the PCE swing at 0.6959
Break of the 0.6942 day low extends the NY lower-low sequence toward the 0.6940 round number
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the compressed range
Lower highs from the 0.6987 PCE high; tight Asian range 0.6943–0.6951 above the swing low.
AUD dropped after the trimmed-mean CPI miss, and the NY spike to the 0.6987 PCE high faded on US growth beats into a lower-high sequence down to the 0.6942 swing low. Early Asia session is compressing below the 0.6951 range top with RSI(14) near 54 and ATR only ~2.6 pips ahead of AU trade data.
Support: 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asian range
M15 close below the 0.6942 swing low extends the lower-low chain from the PCE high
Close above the 0.6951 range top opens the 0.6964 lower high, near the 38.2% of the PCE sell-off
Recovery through the 0.6987 PCE high invalidates the NY downtrend read
Lower highs from post-PCE spike, now a tight 0.6942–0.6949 compression.
The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 was rejected at the NY open, and AUD/USD stepped lower through the NY session to a 0.6942 session low as USD recovered on growth beats. Early Asia is compressing between that session low and the 0.6949 range top, still under the lower-highs line from the 0.6951 NY shelf, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR(14) at roughly 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.69421
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69515, 0.69637
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asia compression
An M15 close below the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.6951 NY shelf and the lower-highs line ends the compression to the upside
Reclaiming the 0.6964 lower high, near the 50% fib of the post-PCE drop, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
23:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.69448
Lower highs since PCE spike reversal; tight Asian-open range above 0.6942.
AUDUSD is capped in a 0.6942–0.6949 box into the Asia session. The pair fully reversed the post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high, and firm US growth data drove a lower-high sequence through 0.6964 and the 0.6952 ny shelf. The 20:00 UTC session low at 0.6942 held through the quiet NY-to-Asia handover, with ATR(14) compressed to under 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the compression
M15 close below the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.6952 ny shelf and the lower highs trendline breaks the downtrend read, exposing the 0.6964 lower high
The 0.6987 pce high marks the top of the fib retracement range
Lower highs since the PCE spike, now a tight late-NY box.
The PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high reversed in NY hours as USD growth beats absorbed the soft print. Price then posted a chain of lower highs into a 0.6942 session low, capped by a descending trendline. Late NY into the Asia pre-open has compressed into a 6-pip box between 0.6942 and the 0.6949 range top, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR only about 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6949 range top and the descending trendline opens the 0.6964 lower high, near the 50% pce-drop fib
Break of the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asia-session compression
Lower-high structure stays intact while price holds below the 0.6987 pce high
Lower-high chain from post-PCE spike, tight base above 0.6942.
The NY-open PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully rejected as USD recovered on growth beats. That left a lower-high sequence from 0.6964 down to a 0.6942 session low. Into early Asia, price is compressing in a 0.6942–0.6949 band beneath the descending trendline and the 0.6951 prior shelf, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.6951, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6949 late high and the descending trendline breaks the compression
Reclaim of the 0.6951 prior shelf opens the PCE spike fib 38.2% near 0.6959, then the 0.6964 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low exposes the 0.6940 round number
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read in the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC spike; tight base above 0.6942.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 met rejection as firmer US growth data lifted USD. Price broke the 0.6958 Asian low during NY hours and ground to a 0.6942 session low. Early Asia now: price is compressing in a 0.6942–0.6950 shelf, testing the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.69583, 0.69637
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asian-session compression
M15 close below the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.6950 shelf and the lower-highs trendline brings the 0.6958 Asian low and the 38.2% fib into play
Reclaim of the 0.6964 swing high invalidates the post-PCE downtrend read
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.6945
Lower highs through NY, tight post-NY band above session low.
The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 met rejection as firm US growth data absorbed the soft print. NY then ground lower along descending highs, took out the Asian low at 0.6958 and set a session low at 0.6942. Price is now compressing in a 6-pip band just above that low into the Asia open, with RSI(14) near 38 and neither stretched nor diverging.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69541, 0.69583
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
An M15 close above the 0.6949 late high and the descending highs line near the 0.6954 lower high would be the first break in the NY sequence
Reclaiming the 0.6958 Asian low, near the 38.2% retrace of the PCE spike fib, would neutralise the NY selloff read
AUD Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the current compression
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.69462
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-PCE spike, compressing near the lows.
The post-PCE spike was rejected at 0.6987 in the first hour of NY. Firm US growth data then drove a chain of lower highs down to a 0.6942 session low, extending the Asia-session drop after soft trimmed-mean CPI. Price is now coiling below EMA20 near 0.6946 after the NY close. RSI(14) sits at 44 and ATR is around 2.6 pips, so there is no momentum extreme in play.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69594, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6949 bounce high breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence; the fib 38.2 at 0.6959 and the 0.6964 lower high sit above
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then AU Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and the RBA FSR (01:30 UTC) in Asia, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the PCE spike reversal; tight 0.6942–0.6950 base.
The PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high at 12:30 UTC was rejected and fully reversed. AUD/USD then printed lower highs through NY hours, lost the 0.6947 prior floor at 19:30 UTC and set a 0.6942 session low, with firm US growth data outweighing the soft PCE. Price is now pinned just under the prior floor in a quiet post-NY tape, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.69583, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6948 prior floor and the lower-highs line negates the grind lower
Reclaiming the 0.6958 cpi low, near the 38.2% fib at 0.6959, shifts the read to a deeper retracement of the PCE-high selloff
Break of the 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.6987 spike, tight base above 0.6942.
The trimmed-mean CPI miss knocked AUDUSD from 0.6994 to 0.6958 in the Asia session. In the NY session the post-PCE pce spike to 0.6987 was rejected, and strong US growth data drove a slide to the 0.6942 session low. Early Asia now sits in a tight 9-pip range just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 range top would break the post-NY lower-high chain and bring the 0.6959 fib 38.2% and 0.6964 swing high into view
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low extends lower lows toward the 0.6940 round number
Australia Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the tight Asian range
21:06 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 35 · price 0.69438
Lower highs below Asian range low, grinding to new session lows.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 was rejected as strong US growth data revived the dollar. Price broke the 0.6958 Asian low and set a 0.6942 session low late in the NY session, with lower highs from the 0.6964 ny high and the 0.6952 swing high capping under the trendline. RSI(14) near 35 is not oversold, and ATR has compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69637, 0.69583
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6942 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
Close above the 0.6952 swing high and the trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6958 Asian low would flag a false break of the range
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, AU trade balance at 00:30 UTC and RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, grinding into late NY · RSI 33 · price 0.69434
AUD dropped from 0.6994 on the soft trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC. The post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high was rejected as strong US growth data lifted the dollar, and price has since broken the 0.6958 asian low to a 0.6942 session low. Late NY trade is compressing under the falling trendline and the 0.6950 shelf, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.69583, 0.69874
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6950 shelf and the falling trendline eases the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 0.6958 asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the pce high-low move, would mark the breakdown as failed
Acceptance below the 0.6942 session low and the 0.6940 round number extends the lower-low chain
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since PCE spike; afternoon range broken lower.
The post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 PCE high was rejected, as strong US growth data revived the USD. NY hours then ground lower through a lower high at 0.6964 into a 0.6947–0.6951 range, and late NY broke that range to a fresh session low at 0.6942. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is compressed to about 3 pips into the Asia session handover.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low exposes the 0.6940 round number
M15 close back above the 0.6951 range top negates the range break
Recovery through the 0.6964 lower high would break the lower-high sequence; 50% fib sits near 0.6965
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 28 · price 0.69437
Lower highs since PCE spike; afternoon range broken lower.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully reversed as strong US growth data revived the USD. That post-PCE sell-off took out the 0.6958 Asian low set on the soft trimmed-mean CPI. Late NY then broke the 0.6947–0.6951 afternoon range floor to a 0.6942 session low, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69468, 0.69515, 0.69583
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6947 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Recovery through the 0.6951 range top reopens the 0.6958 Asian low and the 38.2% PCE sell-off fib near 0.6959
Failure to hold the 0.6942 session low puts the 0.6940 round number next
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC, then RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower late NY · RSI 29 · price 0.69439
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC spike; late-NY range broken lower.
The 0.6987 pce high at the NY open reversed into a NY sell-off with a steady lower-high sequence. Strong US growth and jobs data outweighed the soft PCE and took price through the 0.6958 post-CPI Asia low. Late NY slipped out of the 0.6947–0.6951 range to a 0.6943 session low; RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR is compressing to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.69426, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69597, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6951 range top would turn the late-NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6943 session low exposes the 0.6940 round number
Recovery through the 0.6960 fib 38.2 of the NY sell-off breaks the lower-high sequence
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), AU Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and the RBA FSR (01:30 UTC) could reset the Asian range
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 36 · price 0.69451
Lower highs since PCE spike; tight band at session low.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully rejected as strong US jobs and growth data revived the USD. NY then broke the asian low at 0.6958 (the post-CPI low), capped a bounce at the 0.6964 swing high, and has since ground into a narrow band under the 0.6952 range top, printing a fresh session low at 0.6944. RSI(14) sits near 36 and ATR is only ~3 pips: this is late-NY compression with no reversal structure, and the 0.6940 round number is the next reference below.
Support: 0.69445, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69583, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6944 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
Recovery above the 0.6952 range top ends the compression; the 0.6958 asian low is the first test of the post-PCE drop
Holding under the 0.6964 swing high keeps the lower-high sequence intact; the 38.2% retrace of the post-PCE drop sits near 0.6961
Goolsbee at 20:05 UTC and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could jolt a thin late-NY tape
Australian Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC are the next AUD-side catalysts in the Asia session
19:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 36 · price 0.69475
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC spike; tight 6-pip range at session low.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.6987 on soft PCE was rejected as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI revived USD, and the post-PCE drop cut through the Asian low at 0.6958 set on the soft trimmed-mean CPI. Since 16:30 UTC price has compressed in a 0.6946–0.6952 band just above the session low late in NY hours, with the 0.6964 lower high capping. RSI(14) is near 36, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.69459
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69583, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6946 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.6952 range top, then back over the 0.6958 Asian low, would undercut the breakdown read
Reclaim of the 0.6964 lower high (38.2% of the post-PCE drop) breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could jolt the compressed range
AUD Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC are the Asia session risks
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling into late NY · RSI 36 · price 0.69486
Lower-high chain from PCE spike, now a tight base at session low.
The post-PCE spike to the 0.69874 pce high was rejected within the NY session, and the lower-high sequence carried AUD/USD to a session low at 0.69468, extending the Asia-session CPI drop from 0.6994. Price has compressed into a 5-pip base between 0.69468 and the 0.69515 range top for about three hours, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and ATR near 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.69468
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69468 session low extends the lower-low sequence out of the base
Close above the 0.69515 range top and then the 0.69637 lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the PCE sell-off, breaks the lower-high chain
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could jolt the late-NY range
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC are Asia-session risk to the base
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 34 · price 0.69491
Lower highs since PCE spike; tight 5-pip band above session low.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 at the NY open met rejection and fully reversed as USD recovered, taking price through the Asian low at 0.6958 (set on the soft CPI drop) to a 0.6947 session low. Late in the NY session price is compressing between that low and the 0.6952 band top, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69583, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6947 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
Recovery through the 0.6952 band top and back above the 0.6958 Asian low would neutralise the breakdown
Break of the 0.6964 lower high (near 38.2% of the PCE fade) invalidates the descending trendline
Fed Cook/Goolsbee/Kashkari from 19:25 UTC and AU trade balance/RBA FSR at 00:30/01:30 UTC could break the compression
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled into late NY · RSI 34 · price 0.69487
Lower highs since PCE spike; tight consolidation at session low.
The PCE-release pce spike to 0.6987 was fully rejected as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats revived USD. That extended the day's slide, which began with the soft trimmed-mean CPI drop during Asia, to a 0.6947 session low. Since then price has compressed in a roughly 5-pip consolidation between 0.6947 and the 0.6952 range top into late NY, with ATR shrinking.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6952 range top reopens the 0.6964 bounce high and the 38.2% post-PCE drop fib
Break of the 0.6947 session low exposes the 0.6940 round number
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak from 19:25 UTC and could break the late-NY consolidation
AU Trade Balance 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR 01:30 UTC are the next Asia-session catalysts
Lower highs after post-PCE spike, tight compression above session low.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI drop in Asia set the tone. The post-PCE pce spike to 0.6987 was rejected and sold through NY. Late NY is now compressing just above the 0.6947 session low with RSI(14) near 33, and lower highs at 0.6964 (bounce high) and 0.6954 (lower high) cap the drift.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69541, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6947 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
Reclaim of the 0.6954 lower high, then the 0.6964 bounce high (38.2% of the pce sell-off), breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
AU Trade Balance 00:30 UTC and RBA FSR 01:30 UTC land in the Asia session
Lower highs below the PCE spike high; tight compression at the session low under 0.6950.
The first-hour-of-NY spike to 0.6987 on the soft PCE print was rejected and fully reversed as strong US activity data restored the USD bid. Price then broke below the 0.6958 Asian low, which was set on the soft trimmed-mean CPI drop, and is compressing in a 4-pip band between the 0.6947 session low and the 0.6950 psych level late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 36 and lower highs intact.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.69583, 0.69637
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6947 session low exposes the 0.6940 round number
An M15 close back above 0.6950 psych and the 0.6958 Asian low would signal the breakdown is being rejected
An M15 close above the 0.6964 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift this read tonight
AU trade balance (00:30 UTC) and the RBA FSR (01:30 UTC) land in the Asia session
Lower highs below broken Asian range; tight base at 0.6947–0.6952.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 at the NY open was rejected as the GDP/ADP beats revived USD. Price then broke the Asian low at 0.6958, which marks the bottom of the post-CPI Asia drop. It is now compressing between the 0.6947 session low and a 0.6952 range cap under falling highs, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet stretched.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69515, 0.69583, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6952 range cap and the falling highs line breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance back above the asian low at 0.6958 neutralises the range break; the 0.6964 swing high sits next
Loss of the 0.6947 session low exposes the 0.6940 round number
Fed speakers Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 UTC, then AU trade balance at 00:30 UTC, could shift this read
A PCE spike fib 38.2% retrace near 0.6962 overlaps the swing high; rejection there keeps the downtrend intact
Lower highs since PCE spike, tight base above session low.
The PCE-hour spike to the 0.6987 pce high was a false break of the London range and was fully sold as strong US GDP and Chicago PMI data followed. That flush took price through the Asia cpi low at 0.6960 and the 0.6966 range floor. After London close the pair is compressing in a tight 0.6947–0.6951 band just above the session low, with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.69468
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6966, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6947 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.6960 cpi low and 0.6966 range floor (near the 38.2–50% pce move fib) breaks the lower highs line
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, then AU trade balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC, could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the PCE spike rejection; late-NY bars compressing.
The PCE spike to the 0.6987 pce high was fully rejected in the first hour of NY as ADP/GDP beats restored the USD bid. Price broke below the 0.6958 cpi low from the Asia session, capped by a 0.6964 lower high, and now sits on 0.6950 just above a 0.6947 session low. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not extreme, and bar ranges are shrinking into the late NY session.
Support: 0.69468, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6964 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts price back inside the day's range above the cpi low
A break of the 0.6947 session low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.6900 round number
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift this read; AU trade balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC fall in the next Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since the US data spike, now compressing near 0.6950.
The 12:30 UTC spike to the 0.6987 PCE high met rejection within two bars as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft core PCE. NY hours have since cut through the 0.6958 Asian low, the low that followed the soft trimmed-mean CPI, and printed a 0.6947 session low. RSI(14) sits near 29 and bar ranges are shrinking around the 0.6950 round number as the lower-high chain flattens.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69468
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6947 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the 0.6958 Asian low and the 0.6964 lower high (near the 38.2% of the post-PCE drop) breaks the NY downtrend structure
The PCE high at 0.6987 caps the 61.8% retrace zone of the post-PCE drop
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift USD pricing into the Asian session
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR at 01:30 UTC are event risk for the Asian range
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 28 · price 0.69495
Lower highs/lower lows below broken Asian low.
The spike to the 0.6987 pce high in the first hour of NY met rejection as ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats offset the soft core PCE, and the pair has since fallen along a lower-high trendline, breaking the 0.6958 asian low (set on the soft trimmed-mean CPI). Price is pressing the 0.6948 session low into late NY with RSI(14) near 28, soft but not extreme, and ATR contracting to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.69476
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6948 session low extends the lower-low chain below the 0.6950 handle
Recovery above the 0.6958 asian low and the 0.6964 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
A reclaim of the 38.2% level of the pce spike fib (~0.6963) marks the first sign of a deeper retracement
Fed Cook 19:25 UTC, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 could shift USD tone, followed by AU trade balance 00:30 UTC and the RBA FSR 01:30 UTC
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near lows · RSI 33 · price 0.69508
Lower highs since the US-data spike, Asian range low broken.
The 12:30 UTC spike to the 0.6987 spike high on soft US PCE was fully rejected as beats in GDP and the Chicago PMI revived the USD. NY hours since then have printed lower highs and broken the 0.6958 Asian low, the post-CPI low. Price is pressing the 0.6948 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.69476, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6948 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6940 round number
A recovery back above the 0.6958 Asian low and the 0.6964 swing high (near the 38.2% spike fib) would break the NY lower-high sequence
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak from 19:25 UTC, then AU Trade Balance and the RBA FSR are due at 00:30 and 01:30 UTC; any of these could shift this read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh day lows in NY · RSI 24 · price 0.69491
Lower highs and lower lows since the rejected PCE spike; Asia CPI low broken.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.6987 (pce spike) reversed within two bars. Beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft core PCE, and NY hours have since broken the 0.6958 cpi low from the Asia-session AU CPI drop, with price now printing a fresh day low at 0.6949. Bounces are stalling at the 0.6964 lower high, which is also the 38.2% of the NY drop; RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 0.6949
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6958 cpi low would mark the break as a false break
A move through the 0.6964 lower high (38.2% fib) ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 50% near 0.6968 in view
Acceptance below the 0.6949 day low and 0.6950 psych extends the NY leg
Fed's Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 UTC could shift this read
15:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the PCE spike · RSI 36 · price 0.69525
Asian range low broken in NY; price pinned at session low.
The soft US core PCE print lifted AUDUSD to a 0.6987 pce spike in early NY. The move was rejected as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats restored USD demand, and price broke below the 0.6958 Asian low set on the AU CPI drop. Price is pinned at the 0.6950 session low into the London close, with RSI(14) near 36 and the 0.6964 bounce high capping the descending trendline.
Support: 0.69505
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6950 session low extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of the 0.6958 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
A close above the 0.6964 bounce high and the pce spike trendline opens the 38.2–50% retrace toward 0.6965–0.6969
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift the read after the PCE miss
AU Trade Balance (Thu 00:30 UTC) and the RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) are Asia-session risk
Lower highs from 0.6987 PCE spike; tight 0.6951–0.6964 base mid-NY.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD to 0.6987, but the move was rejected as the GDP/ADP beats came through. The sell-off broke the post-CPI asia low at 0.6958 and set a 0.6951 session low. Mid-NY, price is holding a tight base below the 0.6964 swing high, RSI(14) near 40 and not stretched.
Support: 0.69505
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6958 asia low, then the 0.6964 swing high, breaks the lower-high chain off the pce spike
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low extends the lower-low sequence below 0.6950
Fed speakers Cook/Goolsbee/Kashkari from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
Aus Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC is the next AUD-specific risk in the Asia session
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs in NY session · RSI 40 · price 0.69584
Lower highs below 0.6964; session low 0.6951 holding for now.
The US data spike to 0.6987 at 12:30 UTC was rejected despite the soft core PCE print, and the pair slid through the 0.6960 Asian low to a session low at 0.6951 in the first NY hours. The bounce has stalled at a lower high near 0.6964, the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6951
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6964 lower high and the fib 38.2% breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the 0.6960 asian low turns it back into support
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of the 0.6987 data spike high negates the post-US-data rejection
Fed speakers Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25-22:00 UTC) and Aus Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY session · RSI 39 · price 0.69569
Post-PCE spike reversed; Asian low broken, lower-high chain below 0.6964.
The soft PCE print lifted AUDUSD to a 0.6987 pce spike high at 12:30 UTC, but the move fully reversed and broke the post-CPI asian low at 0.6958. It then printed a session low at 0.6950. The 14:45 bounce high at 0.6964 stalled near the 38.2% fib of that drop, and price is sitting just under the old Asian low into the London close with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6964 bounce high and the lower-high trendline would break the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.6950 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Price holding under the 0.6958 asian low keeps it acting as overhead resistance
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift USD after the soft core PCE
Aus Trade Balance 00:30 UTC and RBA FSR 01:30 UTC are the next AUD risk
A recovery through the 50% fib near 0.6969 would put the 0.6987 pce spike high back in view
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off the post-data spike · RSI 40 · price 0.69594
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; broken Asian low under retest.
The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked AUDUSD to a data high of 0.6987, but the move was rejected within one bar. NY then broke below the London low at 0.6966 and the post-CPI Asian low at 0.6958, printing a session low at 0.6951. Price is now testing the broken Asian low from below, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 8 pips.
Support: 0.69505
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69661, 0.69874
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.6958 Asian low keeps the lower highs from the 0.6987 data high intact
An M15 close back above the 0.6966 London low puts price back inside the prior range and near the 50% fib at 0.6969
Losing the 0.6951 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the USD read after the PCE miss
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending in NY · RSI 33 · price 0.69524
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC spike, Asian low broken.
The soft Aus trimmed-mean CPI knocked AUD from 0.6994 to 0.6958 in Asia. The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss produced a data spike to 0.6987 that reversed fully, and NY hours have since cut through the 0.6958 Asian low to a 0.6951 session low. The descending line from the spike keeps capping bounces, with RSI(14) at 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69508, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.6963, 0.69874
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6958 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6951 session low and the 0.6950 round number extends the lower-low chain
A close above the descending line and the 0.6963 pre-data low breaks the lower-high sequence
A 50% retrace of the post-data drop sits near 0.6969; the 0.6987 data spike is the full rejection high
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari, then Aus Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC, could shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh day low in NY hours · RSI 36 · price 0.69577
Post-data spike rejected, Asian low broken, lower highs since London high.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to the 0.6987 spike high was rejected, as GDP/ADP beats offset the PCE miss. The first hour of NY then broke the asian low at 0.6958, set after the soft Aus trimmed-mean CPI, and printed a day low of 0.6952, with the london high at 0.6981 capping the session. RSI(14) sits near 36, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.6952, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6981, 0.6987
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian low at 0.6958 would turn the break into a false break.
Failure to hold the day low at 0.6952 and the 0.6950 round number extends the lower-low sequence.
A reclaim of the 50% data spike fib near 0.6970 puts the london high at 0.6981 and the spike high at 0.6987 back in play.
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and the Aus Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) could materially shift this read.
Post-data spike rejected; lower highs and lower lows through NY.
The soft US PCE print spiked AUD/USD through the London high to 0.6987 at 12:15 UTC. The move was fully rejected, and the NY session has since carved lower highs down to a new 24h session low at 0.6952, below the 0.6958 cpi low set during Asia. Dovish RBA and soft trimmed-mean CPI are outweighing the softer USD, and RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched.
Support: 0.69524, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69583, 0.69658, 0.69874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6952 session low exposes the 0.6950 round number
M15 closes back above the 0.6958 cpi low would signal the Asia-low break is not holding
Recovery above the 0.6966 london lows (38.2% fib of the spike-high sell-off) negates the post-spike breakdown
Spike high at 0.6987 caps the post-data range while price holds below the fib 61.8% at 0.6974
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC), then Aus Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC, could shift this read; month-end flows may distort price
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY open · RSI 41 · price 0.69639
PCE spike rejected, London range broken lower.
The soft US core PCE print lifted price to a PCE spike at 0.6987, above the London high at 0.6981. That was a false break, fully reversed within the hour. Price has since cut through the London low at 0.6966 to a new session low at 0.6962, sitting just above the 0.6958 cpi low from the Asian session, with RSI(14) near 41 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.69615, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69662, 0.69808, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6958 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the Asian session
Reclaim of the 0.6966 london low returns price to the London range and weakens the rejection read
Recovery toward the 61.8% of the PCE spike fade (~0.6978) would put the london high back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers tonight could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London high; PCE spike fully faded back to session low.
Soft Aus trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC dropped AUDUSD from 0.6994 to the 0.6958 24h low. London capped at the 0.6981 london high and printed lower highs under a 0.6973 range top. The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked price to 0.6987, but the pce spike reversed within two bars and price is back at the 0.6963 session low in the first hour of NY.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6981, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6963 session low exposes the 0.6958 24h low; failure there confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.6973 range top and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
Acceptance back above the 0.6981 london high would put the 0.6987 pce spike back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could move USD within the next bar
13:04 UTC
Heavy below overnight highs, NY spike faded · RSI 53 · price 0.69727
Lower highs through London; PCE spike rejected back inside the London range.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI knocked AUDUSD from the pre-CPI high at 0.6994 to the CPI low at 0.6958 in Asia, and London printed lower highs beneath the London high at 0.6981. The core PCE miss spiked price above the London highs trendline to the PCE high at 0.6987 at 12:30 UTC. That move was fully rejected, and price now sits at 0.6973, on the 61.8% of the PCE spike and mid-range above the London low.
Support: 0.69662, 0.6963, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.69874, 0.69943
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could extend or reverse the post-PCE rejection
M15 close back above the London high at 0.6981 negates the false break; the PCE high at 0.6987 caps above
Failure to hold the London low at 0.6966 and the pre-PCE low at 0.6963 exposes the CPI low at 0.6958
Pre-CPI high at 0.6994 stays out of reach while the London highs trendline caps
Post-CPI range 0.6958–0.6981; London lower highs broken by PCE bar, close back under london high.
Soft trimmed-mean CPI dropped AUDUSD from the 0.6994 Asian high to the 0.6958 cpi low. London rebounds were capped at the 0.6981 london high, which sits at the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib, and the session printed lower highs. In the first NY bar the PCE release bar pushed from the 0.6963 ny low through the lower-highs trendline to a 0.6987 spike high, then closed back at 0.6979, just under the london high, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.6963, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6987, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high and the CPI drop fib 61.8% opens the 0.6987 spike high, then the 0.6994 asian high
Rejection at 0.6981 and a slide back under 0.6970 returns price to the post-CPI range toward the 0.6963 ny low
A break of the 0.6958 cpi low extends the post-CPI lower-low sequence
PCE follow-through in NY hours, then Aus Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and RBA FSR (01:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, PCE-release spike testing London high · RSI 60 · price 0.69781
Lower highs from 0.6981 in a 0.6966–0.6974 range, broken higher on the 12:30 GMT bar.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI knocked AUD 36 pips to the 0.6958 cpi low in Asia. London then built lower highs from 0.6981 inside a range capped by the 0.6974 range top, with the range low at 0.6966. The ADP beat pushed it to 0.6963 before the first-hour-of-NY PCE bar ripped to 0.6978, through the lower-highs trendline and into the 50–61.8% fib of the CPI drop.
Support: 0.6973, 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high (61.8% fib) opens the 0.6994 pre-cpi high and 0.7000 psych
Slip back under the 0.6973 range top marks the PCE spike as a false break, with the 0.6966 range low next
Failure to hold the 0.6958 cpi low resumes the post-CPI lower-low sequence
PCE details are still being digested and the first-bar reaction can unwind. Aus Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC is the next risk
Lower highs since London open pressing a flat 0.6966 session low.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI knocked AUD/USD 36 pips off the 0.6994 Asia high to a 0.6958 CPI low. The rebound stalled at the 0.6981 London high, and since then price has printed lower highs along a descending trendline. It is now on a third test of the 0.6966 session low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6981, 0.6994
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land inside the next two bars and could expand range well beyond the 4-pip ATR
M15 close below the 0.6966 session low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low
M15 close above the lower-high trendline near 0.6974 breaks the London sequence of lower highs and puts the 0.6981 London high back in play
Reclaiming 0.6994 Asia high would fully retrace the CPI drop
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into a flat base · RSI 41 · price 0.6969
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.6966 London low.
AUD dropped 36 pips on the soft trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC to a 0.6958 cpi low, and the London high at 0.6981 stalled right at the 61.8% retrace of that move. Since then, lower highs have squeezed price onto a flat 0.6966 London low, tested three times, heading into the London-NY transition and US data.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6981, 0.6994
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) land within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.6966 London low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low and a fresh session low
A close above the lower highs line near 0.6974 and the 0.6981 London high (61.8% retrace) reopens the 0.6994 Asia high
11:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing into data · RSI 46 · price 0.69714
Lower highs below 61.8% fib, flat base near 0.6967.
The trimmed-mean CPI miss at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD 35 pips from the 0.6994 Asian high to the 0.6958 CPI low during the Asia session. The rebound met rejection at the 61.8% fib and London high at 0.6981 just after London open. Since then the pair has held a 0.6967–0.6974 range below EMA20, with lower highs into late London and the ADP/core PCE releases.
Support: 0.69668, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69738, 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, both within the hour, could break the London range
M15 close below the 0.6967 london low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
Close above the 0.6974 range top and 0.6981 london high (61.8% fib) reopens the 0.6994 asian high
AUD dropped 36 pips on the 01:30 UTC trimmed-mean CPI miss, from the 0.6994 pre-cpi high to the 0.6958 cpi low. The rebound met rejection at the 0.6981 london high near the 61.8% fib. London has since printed lower highs above a flat 0.6966 london low, with price pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6981, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 london low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
Close above 0.6973 breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 0.6981 london high back in play
Reclaim of the 0.6994 pre-cpi high would erase the CPI drop
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
The trimmed-mean CPI miss knocked AUD/USD 35 pips to a 0.6958 CPI low in the Asia session. London's rebound was rejected at the 0.6981 London high, the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop, and has since printed lower highs down to 0.6973 against a triple low at 0.6966. Price sits below both EMAs in a tightening 0.6966–0.6973 pocket ahead of NY.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6981, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 triple low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low
Close above the 0.6973 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; 0.6981 London high next
Acceptance above 0.6981 re-opens the 0.6994 pre-cpi high
US ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Flat floor at 0.6966 under a descending line of lower highs.
AUD/USD dropped 36 pips from the pre-CPI high on the soft trimmed-mean print in Asia to the 0.6958 CPI low. The rebound met rejection at the 61.8% fib, which coincides with the 0.6981 session high. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 0.6966 range floor and a descending line of lower highs at 0.6973, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.69665, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69733, 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 range floor exposes the 0.6958 CPI low and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 0.6973 lower high breaks the descending line; 0.6981 session high / 61.8% fib is the next cap
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) land within the next ~90 minutes and could materially shift this read
A move back through 0.6994 pre-CPI high would fully reverse the CPI leg
10:47 UTC
Post-CPI downside, now consolidating · RSI 40 · price 0.69704
Lower highs capping above a flat 0.6966 floor.
The softer trimmed-mean CPI knocked AUD/USD 36 pips lower in Asia, to the 0.6958 CPI low. London's rebound was rejected at the 0.6981 London high, the 61.8% fib of that drop. Price has since printed lower highs above a 0.6966 London low, sitting near the 38.2% level with RSI(14) at 40.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.6966 London low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low
A close above the lower-highs line and the 0.6981 London high reopens the 0.6994 pre-CPI high and the 0.7000 round number
10:33 UTC
Down after CPI drop, lower highs in London · RSI 44 · price 0.69714
Lower highs from 0.6981 London high, London low 0.6967 holding.
AUD dropped from the pre-CPI high at 0.6994 to the CPI low at 0.6958 after the soft trimmed-mean print at 01:30 UTC. The London open bounce met rejection at the 61.8% retrace near the 0.6981 London high. Since then a lower-high sequence has pressed price back to the 38.2% at 0.6972, just above the 0.6967 London low.
Support: 0.69666, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69774, 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
A M15 close below the 0.6967 London low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low
A close above the 0.6977 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line and puts the 0.6981 London high back in play
A reclaim of the pre-cpi high at 0.6994 would unwind the CPI drop entirely
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) in the first hours of NY could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high, 0.6967 floor holding.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC knocked AUD from the 0.6994 Asian high to a 0.6958 cpi low. London's rebound met rejection at the 0.6981 London high, near the 61.8% of the cpi drop fib. Mid-London price is printing lower highs along a descending trendline while the 0.6967 London low holds twice, with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) about 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6967 London low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
A close above the trendline and the 0.6981 London high negates the lower-high sequence, with the 0.6994 Asian high next
US ADP at 12:15 and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Heavy post-CPI, compressing lower · RSI 45 · price 0.69687
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.6966 base inside the 0.6966–0.6981 range.
The softer trimmed-mean CPI print knocked AUD/USD 36 pips lower during the Asia session, to the 0.6958 cpi low. Price has held a 0.6966–0.6981 range since. The London high stalled at the 61.8% retrace of that drop, and lower highs through the session are now pressing the 0.6966 session low, with RSI(14) near 45 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69665, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 session low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
Close above the 0.6981 london high and 61.8% level breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.6994 pre-cpi high
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and core PCE at 12:30 GMT, about 2h out, could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.69689
Lower highs since London high, testing London low.
AUD dropped about 36 pips to 0.6958 on the soft trimmed-mean CPI during Asia. London's bounce stalled at 0.6981, the 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop, and has since printed a lower high at 0.6977. Price is now back on the 0.6966 London low about three hours into the London session, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.69665, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69774, 0.69808
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and PCE (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.6966 London low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low
A close above the 0.6981 London high invalidates the lower-high sequence
The 0.6977 lower high caps the descending trendline from the London high
09:32 UTC
Heavy below EMAs, lower highs in London · RSI 39 · price 0.69692
Post-CPI range 0.6966–0.6981, highs compressing lower.
AUD dropped 36 pips on the 01:30 UTC CPI release after the soft trimmed-mean print, stalling at the 0.6958 cpi low. The rebound stopped at 0.6981, the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib and the london high, and highs have stepped lower since. Mid-London, price is back on the 0.6966 range floor, which has held three times since the release.
Support: 0.69665, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 range floor exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
Close above the 0.6981 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and the 61.8% cap
US ADP at 12:15 GMT and PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
0.6994 pre-cpi high marks where the CPI drop would be fully unwound
09:16 UTC
Down after CPI drop, now consolidating · RSI 44 · price 0.69709
Lower highs under 0.6981, holding above 0.6966 swing low.
The soft Aussie trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 GMT knocked AUD/USD 35 pips off the 0.6994 pre-cpi high to a 0.6958 cpi low. The rebound met rejection at the 0.6981 london high, the 61.8% fib of that drop. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 0.6966 swing low and a lower-high trendline, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.69664, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.69943, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 swing low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
Close above the lower-high trendline and 0.6981 london high breaks the sequence, opening the 0.6994 pre-cpi high and 0.7007 prior high
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and PCE (12:30 GMT) in ~3h could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the CPI low, capped below the London high.
AUD dropped ~35 pips on the Asia-session CPI release, where trimmed mean undershot, to the 0.6958 CPI low. It has since carved rising lows, but the London high at 0.6981 was rejected at the 61.8% fib of that drop. Price is now pinned at EMA20 in a tight 0.6970–0.6977 band, with RSI(14) near 49 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.69702, 0.69664, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69808, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and August PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.6970 london low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the 0.6966 swing low, then the 0.6958 cpi low
A close above the 0.6981 london high (61.8% fib) opens the 0.6994 pre-cpi high and 0.7000 psych
08:47 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, recovering in a range · RSI 56 · price 0.6976
London inside the post-CPI range, higher lows forming.
AUD dropped 35 pips on the soft trimmed-mean CPI print at the 01:30 UTC bar, setting the cpi low at 0.6958. Mid-London, price is holding the 50% retracement of that drop near 0.6976 and hugging EMA50, after a rejection at the london high of 0.6981 (61.8% level). Higher lows at the 0.6966 swing low and the 0.6970 london low define the session's floor.
Support: 0.6970, 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994, 0.7007
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high clears the 61.8% of the CPI drop and exposes the 0.6994 asian high, with the 0.7007 prior high beyond
Loss of the 0.6970 london low breaks the higher-lows line; below the 0.6966 swing low, the 0.6958 cpi low comes back into view
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUD shed about 35 pips on the 01:30 UTC CPI release as the trimmed-mean miss hit, bottoming at the 0.6958 cpi low. Asia and early London have since held a 0.6966 swing low to 0.6981 session high range. Rising lows are in place, but the London high was rejected at the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop. Price is sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 session high (61.8% fib) opens the pre-cpi high at 0.6994 and the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6966 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the CPI low; London high capped at 0.6981.
AUD/USD shed 36 pips on the trimmed-mean CPI miss to a 0.6958 cpi low, then rebuilt through the Asia session on higher lows at 0.6960 and the 0.6966 session low. London's early push met rejection at the 0.6981 london high, the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop, and price has slipped back under the ema20 near 0.6974.
Support: 0.69664, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.69808, 0.69943
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6966 session low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high (61.8% of the CPI drop) opens the path to the 0.6994 pre-cpi high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.6966–0.6981 with rising lows off the CPI low; below EMA50.
The 01:30 UTC AU CPI release, with its trimmed-mean miss, knocked AUD/USD from the 0.6994 asian high to a 0.6958 cpi low. Since then it has held a 0.6966–0.6981 range on rising lows. In the first hour of London, price probed 0.6981, the london high and 61.8% of the CPI drop fib, and stalled there, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and price hugging a flat EMA20.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994, 0.7007
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 0.6994 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6966 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
0.7000 psych and the 0.7007 prior high from yesterday's London session sit above the asian high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off CPI low, capped at 61.8% of CPI drop.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD 35 pips to the 0.6958 cpi low. Asia and early London have since built higher lows at the 0.6966 swing low. The London open push was rejected at the 0.6981 london high, the 61.8% fib of the CPI drop, and price is now sitting on EMA50 below the 0.6994 pre-cpi high.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high opens the 0.6994 pre-cpi high and the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6966 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Recovering from CPI drop, capped at 61.8% · RSI 58 · price 0.69778
Higher lows since the 0.6958 CPI low; range 0.6966–0.6981 into early London.
The 01:30 UTC AU CPI print, with its trimmed-mean miss, knocked the pair 36 pips from the 0.6994 pre-cpi high to the 0.6958 cpi low. Asia then built higher lows into a double low at 0.6966. The London open bounce stalled at 0.6981, the london high and the 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6981 london high (61.8% fib) opens the 0.6994 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 0.6966 double low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The soft trimmed-mean CPI knocked AUDUSD 35 pips in the Asia session to a cpi low at 0.6958. Since then it has ranged, with the range top at 0.6979 near the 61.8% fib rejecting twice and the range low at 0.6966 holding into the London open. Price is back at the range top and only fractionally above EMA50.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6979, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6979 range top and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 0.6994 pre-cpi high and 0.7000 psych
Break of the 0.6966 range low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low and the rising lows line
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, ranging after CPI drop · RSI 47 · price 0.69702
0.6958–0.6979 range below the 0.6994 pre-CPI high.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from the 0.6994 pre-CPI high to a 0.6958 CPI low, through yesterday's NY low. Asia then held a 0.6958–0.6979 range, and the retrace stalled just short of the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib. Early London saw a rejection at the 0.6979 swing high and a slide back to swing low support at 0.6966, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.69664, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69792, 0.69943, 0.70067
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 swing low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6979 swing high and the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib reopens the 0.6994 pre-CPI high, with the 0.7007 prior high beyond
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6958, capped at 0.6979 ahead of London open.
The 01:30 UTC CPI print, with a soft trimmed mean, knocked AUD 35 pips to the 0.6958 CPI low, a brief false break of yesterday's 0.6966 low. A higher low at 0.6967 then lifted price to the 0.6979 recent high, near the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop fib. Late in the Asia session, RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and price sits just under EMA50.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6979, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6979 recent high and the 61.8% level near 0.6981 opens the path to the 0.6994 pre-CPI high
Break of rising support and the 0.6967 higher low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6958, retesting pre-CPI breakdown zone.
The softer AU trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD 35 pips to a 0.6958 cpi low. Asia has since printed a higher low at 0.6967 and cleared the 0.6976 prior high, putting price at the 61.8% of the CPI drop near 0.6980, just under the old 0.6984–0.6988 cpi range. Late Asia session, with London open ahead.
Support: 0.6976, 0.69672, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6988 cpi range reopens the 0.6994 asia high and the 0.7000 round number
Rejection at the 61.8% of the CPI drop keeps the pre-CPI breakdown intact
Failure to hold the 0.6976 prior high puts the 0.6967 higher low back in play
A break of the 0.6967 higher low ends the Asian recovery structure and exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7007; Asia higher low at 0.6967 under post-CPI high.
The 01:30 UTC CPI drop took AUD down 35 pips to the 0.6958 cpi low as trimmed-mean undershot, breaking the overnight 0.6982–0.6994 range. Late in Asia session, price built a higher low at 0.6967 and is retesting the 0.6977 post-CPI high, the 50% fib of the CPI drop, into London open.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.6982, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6977 post-CPI high and 0.6982 range floor reclaims the old range, with the 0.6994 Asia high next
Failure to hold the 0.6967 higher low reopens the 0.6958 cpi low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Down after CPI drop, stabilising · RSI 54 · price 0.69723
The 01:30 UTC AU CPI release, with its trimmed-mean miss, knocked AUD/USD about 35 pips to the 0.6958 cpi low, a sweep of yesterday's 0.6966 low that was quickly reclaimed. The rebound stalled at the 0.6976 bounce high near the 50% fib of the CPI drop. Late Asia is now compressing between that level and a 0.6967 higher low, with price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 0.69672, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6976 bounce high opens a retest of the 0.6994 asia high
Loss of the 0.6967 higher low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low again
London open in ~1.5h is likely to resolve the current coil
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the post-CPI bounce, tight 0.6967–0.6972 range.
Soft AU trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD 35 pips from the 0.6994 asian high to a 0.6958 cpi low. The bounce was rejected at 0.6976, on the 50% fib of the drop. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing below the ema20 near 0.6973 in a 0.6967–0.6972 range, with lower highs capping each push.
Support: 0.69672, 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.69759, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6967 range low exposes the 0.6966 prior low from yesterday's NY session, then the 0.6958 cpi low
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 0.6976 bounce high breaks the post-CPI sequence; 0.6994 asian high is next above
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs after CPI drop, compressing above micro low.
The trimmed-mean CPI miss at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD from 0.6994 to a 0.6958 cpi low, briefly breaking yesterday's 0.6966 low. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 0.6976, leaving lower highs. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing at 0.6967–0.6972 above the micro low, with RSI(14) near 45 and price under EMA20.
Support: 0.6967, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6967 micro low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low; acceptance under it extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 50% fib at 0.6976 breaks the lower highs line and brings the 0.6994 pre-cpi high back into view
0.7000 round number caps the upside while the post-RBA downtrend holds
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
London open in ~2h is likely to test the tight Asian consolidation
Lower high at 0.6976 under the Asian range, holding above the cpi low.
The 01:30 UTC CPI bar dropped 35 pips from the asian high at 0.6994 on the trimmed-mean miss, taking out yesterday's ny low at 0.6966 and printing a cpi low at 0.6958. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 0.6976, and late in the Asia session price is sitting on the 0.6968 micro low, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69676, 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69763, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.6976 reopens the asian high at 0.6994
Loss of the 0.6968 micro low and the 0.6966 ny low exposes the cpi low at 0.6958; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
0.7000 round number caps the pre-CPI range top
US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; post-CPI bounce capped at 50% retracement.
The trimmed-mean CPI miss at 01:30 UTC broke the Asian range and dropped the pair 36 pips from the 0.6994 asian high to the 0.6958 cpi low. The bounce stalled at the 50% retracement near the 0.6976 bounce high, and price is back pressing yesterday's 0.6966 ny low late in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6966 ny low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.6976 bounce high and the lower-high line invalidates the immediate lower-high read, with the 0.6994 asian high next
London open in under 3h may test the post-CPI range and the 50% retracement
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.7000 round number sits above
Lower highs from 0.7007 to 0.6994 to 0.6976, retesting prior NY low.
The trimmed-mean CPI miss at 01:30 UTC knocked AUD 35 pips from the pre-cpi high at 0.6994 to a 0.6958 cpi low, through the prior NY low at 0.6966. The Asia session rebound stalled at the 50% retrace near 0.6976 for another lower high. Price is back retesting 0.6966, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A close back below the prior NY low at 0.6966 puts the 0.6958 cpi low back in play
A recovery above the 50% retrace at 0.6976 would break the lower-high sequence and bring the pre-cpi high at 0.6994 and the 0.7000 round number into view
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort price action
Post-CPI lower low at 0.6958, rising lows since, capped near 50% retrace.
The softer trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC dropped AUDUSD 35 pips from the asian high at 0.6994 to a cpi low of 0.6958, sweeping yesterday's NY prior low at 0.6966 before recovering. Late in the Asia session, the bounce has built rising lows but is stalling at the 50% retrace and ema20 near 0.6977.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.69805, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6966 prior low exposes the 0.6958 cpi low
Close above the 0.6981 61.8% fib of the cpi drop opens the asian high at 0.6994
Break of the rising lows trendline near 0.6971 ends the corrective bounce
US ADP 12:15 UTC and PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs across 24h; higher lows since the CPI low.
AU CPI at 01:30 UTC, with the trimmed-mean miss, drove AUD/USD from the 0.6994 cpi high through the prior NY low at 0.6966 to a 0.6958 cpi low, extending the post-RBA lower-high sequence. Mid-Asia session, price has built higher lows back to 0.6975, at the 50% fib of the CPI drop and just under EMA20 near 0.6977, with the pre-CPI base at 0.6985 overhead.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6985, 0.6994
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6976 50% fib opens the pre-CPI base at 0.6985; the 0.6994 cpi high is the lower-high reference
Close below the 0.6971 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the prior NY low at 0.6966, then the 0.6958 cpi low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London high; Asian range broken lower.
The 01:30 UTC trimmed-mean CPI miss knocked AUD/USD out of the Asian range and through yesterday's NY low at 0.6966, printing a CPI low of 0.6958. Mid-Asia, price has recovered to the 38.2% fib near 0.6972, still below EMA20 and capped by lower highs off the 0.7007 prior high; the pre-CPI range low at 0.6982 is the first overhead level.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6958
Resistance: 0.6982, 0.6994, 0.7007
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6982 range low and the 50% fib at 0.6976 would neutralise the CPI break
Loss of the 0.6966 NY low exposes the 0.6958 CPI low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Session high at 0.6994 and 0.7007 prior high mark the lower-highs trendline; a close above it breaks the intraday downtrend read
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) are the next catalysts and could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after CPI · RSI 31 · price 0.69658
Lower highs since the post-RBA peak; Asian range broken to the downside.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI print at 01:30 UTC knocked AUDUSD about 35 pips out of its 0.6985–0.6994 Asian range to a 0.6958 cpi low, through the NY-session prior low at 0.6966. Mid-Asia, price is pivoting on that prior low, with the 0.6971 bounce high capping just under the 38.2% retracement of the cpi drop. RSI(14) is near 31 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69711, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6971 bounce high and the 38.2% fib opens the 0.6980 area (61.8% of the cpi drop)
A break below the 0.6958 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
Lower highs line from 0.7007 sits beneath the 0.6994 asia high and 0.7000 psych
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after CPI · RSI 30 · price 0.69626
Asian range broken lower, lower low printed, weak bounce capped.
The soft trimmed-mean CPI at 01:30 UTC broke the Asian range lower. The drop took out the prior low at 0.6966 from yesterday's NY session and printed a CPI low at 0.6958. The bounce stalled at the 0.6971 bounce high near the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, and price is back near the lows early in the Asia session with RSI(14) around 30.
Support: 0.69583, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69655, 0.69711, 0.69763
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6971 bounce high reopens the Asian low at 0.6976
Break of the 0.6958 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6950 round number
Sustained trade below the 0.6966 prior low keeps it acting as resistance
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; CPI bar broke Asian range and prior low.
The Aus monthly CPI release at 01:30 UTC dropped AUDUSD about 35 pips in one bar, through the Asian low at 0.6982 and Tuesday's 0.6966 prior low to a 0.6958 CPI low. That extends the lower highs running from the 0.7007 London high. The Asia-session bounce is holding just above the prior low but is still below the 23.6–38.2% fib of the CPI drop.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69583
Resistance: 0.69817, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.6966 prior low and then the 0.6958 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.6982 asian low (near the 61.8% fib) would unwind the CPI range break and put the 0.6994 asian high back in play
A break above the lower highs trendline would negate the downtrend read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7007; CPI bar broke the Asian range and yesterday's NY low.
The Aus monthly CPI release at 01:30 UTC took AUDUSD 35 pips off the Asian high at 0.6994 to a 0.6958 cpi low. That bar broke the Asian low at 0.6982 and yesterday's NY low at 0.6966, extending the lower-highs sequence from 0.7007. Early Asia session, RSI(14) is near 29 after the drop and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 5 pips.
Support: 0.69583, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69655, 0.69817, 0.69943
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6966 ny low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6958 cpi low exposes the 0.6950 round number
A retrace into 0.6976–0.6982 (cpi drop fib 50%–61.8%, Asian low) is the area to watch for rejection
US ADP and core PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower on CPI · RSI 33 · price 0.69754
Lower highs from 0.7029; Asian range broken to the downside.
The Australian CPI release knocked AUD out of its tight 12-pip Asian range. The pair broke the 0.6982 Asian low, printed a 0.6968 CPI bar low and is back near the 0.6966 NY low, extending the lower highs that followed the post-RBA 0.7029 spike. The CPI bar is still open, and the 0.6982 Asian low is now the nearest overhead reference.
Support: 0.69682, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69817, 0.69943, 0.7000
What it said to watch
The CPI bar close sets the read. Trimmed mean vs 3.6% drives follow-through during the Asia session.
An M15 close back above the 0.6982 Asian low would turn the break into a false break, back inside the range.
Failure to hold the 0.6966 NY low and 0.6968 CPI bar low confirms a fresh lower-low.
A reclaim of the 0.6994 Asian high and 0.7000 psych would break the lower highs sequence.
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read.
Asian range 0.6982–0.6990, higher lows off NY low.
AUD/USD is testing the 0.6990 Asian high, also the 61.8% retrace of the London-NY drop, after a string of rising lows off the 0.6966 NY low. Supply sits at the 0.7000 round number and 0.7007 London high, left over after the RBA 'dovish hike' spike at 0.7029 reversed. Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC is the immediate catalyst, and RSI(14) is near 61 with ATR only ~2.7 pips ahead of the print.
Support: 0.6982, 0.6976, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC is likely to expand the range well beyond the ~2.7-pip ATR; a hot print puts the 0.7000 round number in play
An M15 close above 0.7000 exposes the 0.7007 London high
A drop back through the 0.6982 Asian low and the rising lows line reopens the 0.6976 rollover low and 0.6966 NY low
01:04 UTC
Flat to mildly higher after the NY low, compressing · RSI 57 · price 0.69888
Tight Asian range 0.6984–0.6989, price at range top, higher lows since NY low.
Yesterday's RBA 'dovish hike' spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's presser. The NY sell-off from the 0.7007 London high found a floor at the 0.6966 NY low, and price has since carved higher lows along a rising line. Asia is compressing in a 5-pip range into Aug CPI, with price pressing the 0.6989 asian high, a level that also capped the NY rebound and sits near the 61.8% retrace of the sell-off.
Support: 0.69836, 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC (~27 min) could materially shift this read. The 3-pip ATR reflects pre-release compression, not the expected post-print range.
M15 close above the 0.6989 asian high and the 61.8% retrace opens the 0.7000 psych level, then the 0.7007 london high.
Loss of the 0.6984 asian low and the higher-low line exposes the 0.6976 rollover low, then the 0.6966 ny low.
Lower highs 0.7029/0.7007, rebound off 0.6966 now a tight Asian range.
The RBA hike spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's dovish presser, then lower highs at the 0.7007 london high and an NY low at 0.6966 as US yields pushed the USD higher. Price has retraced into the 50–61.8% fib zone of that leg and is compressing in a 3-4 pip ATR Asian range between the 0.6984 range low and 0.6989 range high ahead of Aug CPI.
Support: 0.69836, 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC (~45 min) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close above the 0.6989 range high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.7000 round number and 0.7007 london high
Failure to hold the 0.6984 range low exposes the 0.6976 rollover low and 0.6966 ny low
US Core PCE and ADP (12:15–12:30 UTC) later today could reshape the intraday read
00:32 UTC
Down day, flat and compressed into CPI · RSI 55 · price 0.69858
Lower high at 0.7007 then 0.6966 low; tight Asian range 0.6982–0.6989 since.
The RBA spike to the rba high at 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's 'restrictive enough' remarks. NY then extended to the ny low at 0.6966 as the USD firmed on 10Y yields above 5.2%. Early Asia is pinned in a 7-pip band between the range floor at 0.6982 and the range top at 0.6989, right on the 50% retrace of the London-NY drop, with EMAs flat and ATR near 4 pips ahead of Aug CPI.
Support: 0.6982, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7029
What it said to watch
AU Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read and likely ends the compression
M15 close above the range top / 61.8% near 0.6991 opens the 0.7000 psych, with the rba high at 0.7029 above
Failure to hold the range floor at 0.6982 re-exposes the ny low at 0.6966
US ADP and Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
00:16 UTC
Rebound off NY low, stalling in tight Asia range · RSI 52 · price 0.69863
Asia session is compressed inside 0.6982–0.6989 ahead of Aug CPI, parked at the 50% retrace of the 0.7007–0.6966 NY drop after the post-RBA reversal from 0.7029. The higher low at 0.6976 off the rollover keeps the late-NY rebound intact, with the 0.7000 round number capping above.
Support: 0.6982, 0.6976, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7007
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; the asia range is likely to resolve on the print
M15 close above the 0.6989 asia high puts the 0.7000 round number and the 61.8% retrace near 0.6991 in play, then the 0.7007 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6976 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.6966 swing low
00:02 UTC
Downtrend paused, recovering from NY low · RSI 56 · price 0.69874
Lower highs from the RBA spike; tight range 0.6976–0.6989 since the late-NY bounce.
The RBA spike to 0.7029 reversed on Bullock's press-conference caution. After a London high at 0.7007, the NY session printed a lower low at the 0.6966 NY low before a sharp late bounce. Early Asia is compressing under the 0.6989 range top, near the 50% fib of the London high–NY low leg, with higher lows at the 0.6976 rollover low and the psych 0.7000 overhead.
Support: 0.69763, 0.69655
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.7000, 0.70067
What it said to watch
AU monthly CPI at 01:30 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y, trimmed 3.6%) is likely to break the pre-release range
M15 close above the 0.6989 range top and 61.8% fib opens psych 0.7000, then the london high at 0.7007
Failure to hold the 0.6976 rollover low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6966 NY low