Lower highs and lower lows since the early-month peak; 0.7004-0.7045 range broken lower.
AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 0.7237 early-month peak. The 0.7004-0.7045 consolidation gave way on Tuesday after the RBA's dovish hike, and the soft trimmed-mean CPI plus firm US yields pushed price through the 0.6958 prior low to a fresh swing low at 0.6943. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, RSI near 28 is in oversold territory, and ATR around 23 pips points to a steady grind rather than a spike.
Support: 0.6943, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6943 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
H4 close back above the 0.6958 prior low and the 0.7000 psych level would signal the breakdown is stalling
A recovery to the 0.7042 range top, which lines up with the 50% fib, would test the lower-high trendline structure
AU Trade Balance (00:30 UTC) and RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu could materially move USD and this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237 peak; 0.7004 floor broken.
AUDUSD has printed a clean lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 0.7237 peak. Each rebound has been capped along a falling line of lower highs. The latest leg broke the 0.7004 prior floor that anchored last week's 0.7004-0.7042 range, following the RBA's dovish hike and the soft trimmed-mean CPI, while firm US data kept USD bid. The last bar closed at the 0.6948 window low, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50, EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) near 24 pips, modestly expanding on the break.
Support: 0.69484, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69943, 0.70036, 0.70441
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7004 prior floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to reclaim the 0.6994 lower high keeps the downtrend sequence intact
Acceptance below the 0.6948 window low exposes the 0.6900 round number
A rebound into the 0.7044 50% fib that stalls there would mark another lower high
AU Trade Balance / RBA FSR (01 Oct 00:30-01:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (01 Oct 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak, now below 0.7000.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence has held since the 0.7237 peak, with each bounce (0.7187, 0.7140, 0.7042) capped below the last. The dovish-read RBA hike on Tuesday broke the 0.7004-0.7042 consolidation and pushed price below the 0.7000 round number to a new swing low at 0.6958, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 22 pips is moderate, and the soft US core PCE print has yet to produce a meaningful bounce on closed bars.
Support: 0.69583, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7042, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.7000 round number would negate the range break
Reclaim of the 0.7042 lower highs and the trendline would break the lower-high sequence; 38.2% of the 0.7140-0.6958 fib sits near 0.7028
Failure to hold the 0.6958 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6950 psych level
US ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC and NFP later this week could materially shift this read
Aus Trade Balance and RBA Financial Stability Review (Oct 1, 00:30/01:30 UTC) are near-term AUD risk
Lower highs / lower lows; broke below the 0.7005–0.7042 range.
Lower-high sequence intact since the 0.7237 peak. The recent swing sequence steps down from 0.7140 to 0.7042 to 0.7039 to 0.6994, and the week-long 0.7005–0.7042 range gave way after the RBA's dovish hike and a firm USD on Fed-hike pricing. Price has since printed a new swing low at 0.6958. The prior low at 0.6966 sits just above it, and the bounce stalled beneath the former range floor at 0.7005. Price is below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 23 pips from the mid-teens during the range, which fits a trend extending rather than a market compressing.
Support: 0.6958, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.7005, 0.7042, 0.7071
What it said to watch
US ADP and August PCE later today could materially shift this read
An H4 close back above the 0.7005 range floor would undercut the range-break read and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6958 swing low, and the prior low at 0.6966 just above it, extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery through the 0.7042 range top toward the fib 61.8% at 0.7071 would mark the first higher high since mid-month
Lower highs / lower lows since 0.7237 top; 0.7004-0.7044 range broken lower.
Lower highs and lower lows have been in place since the 0.7237 top, and the week-long 0.7004-0.7044 range gave way this week, with price printing a fresh window low at 0.6958 and capping at a minor high near 0.6989. AUD is heavy after the RBA's 'dovish hike' signalled a peak in rates, while ~5% US yields keep the USD firm. ATR(14) is steady near 23 pips rather than compressing, price sits below both EMAs, and RSI near 32 is nearing oversold with no divergence yet.
Support: 0.69583, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69894, 0.70036, 0.70423
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 0.7004 prior floor, where the 50-61.8% fib retrace sits at 0.7000-0.7010, would put the range break in doubt
A close above the 0.7042 range top and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-highs sequence
The minor high at 0.6989 is the first cap on any rebound
Failure to hold the 0.6958 window low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Stepping lower from 0.7237 top; broke below 0.7004 base.
AUDUSD has made lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. Each bounce has been capped along a lower-highs trendline, and the 0.7004 prior low gave way this week as the RBA's dovish hike and US yields near 5% weighed. Price sits just above the 0.6966 swing low and below both EMAs, while ATR(14) has picked up to about 21 pips as the range-top area near 0.7042 held on every retest.
Support: 0.69655, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.70036, 0.7042, 0.71398
What it said to watch
Aug CPI at 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print risks a retest of the 0.7000/0.7004 prior low
H4 close back above the 0.7004 prior low would mark the sub-0.70 move as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6966 swing low confirms another lower-low, with the 0.6900 round number next
H4 close above the 0.7042 range top and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
US Core PCE and ADP at 12:15–12:30 UTC today are a second event risk for the fib 0.7140-0.6966 leg