Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237 peak; shelf broken lower.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. The post-RBA reversal and firm US data pushed the pair through 0.70, and it has since broken the 0.6940–0.6956 shelf to a 0.6903 swing low, just above the 0.6900 round number. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, while the lower-highs trendline now runs near 0.6994. ATR(14) near 23 pips is a contained regime, though the latest leg lower expanded the range, and the 38.2% fib of the 0.7042–0.6903 leg lines up with the shelf top at 0.6956.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6940, 0.6956, 0.6994
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read with USD momentum stretched
H4 close back above the 0.6956 shelf top / 38.2% fib negates the shelf breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.6903 swing low and 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Retest of the 0.6940 shelf base from below is the first area to monitor for rejection or reclaim
Lower-highs trendline near 0.6994 caps the structure unless cleared on a closing basis
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; last bar broke a 0.6935-0.6955 shelf.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. The 0.6994 swing high capped the rebound, and the latest bar broke below the 0.6935-0.6955 shelf to a window low at 0.6903, just above the 0.6900 round number. Rising US yields and a hawkish Fed repricing, set against Bullock's dovish guidance and a soft trimmed-mean CPI, explain the slide. ATR(14) has expanded from a 10-15 pip lull to about 23 pips, and RSI is oversold, with price below both EMAs and EMA20 under EMA50. The 38.2% retracement of the 0.7045 fib high to the low sits at 0.6957, in line with the 0.6956 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6994, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the window low
H4 close back above the 0.6956 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown read
Reclaim of the 0.6994 swing high would break the lower-high structure; the 0.7045 fib high is the next swing above
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and Fed speakers today could materially shift this read via Treasury yields
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 early-month high; 0.7004–0.7042 shelf broken.
AUDUSD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs from 0.7237, with the descending trendline from the 0.7140 high capping every rally. The pair broke the 0.7004–0.7042 shelf and lost the 0.70 handle as the RBA hike gave way to a dovish follow-through and a soft trimmed-mean CPI, while a firm USD added pressure. Price is grinding into the 0.6936 swing low with RSI oversold and bar ranges narrowing, and EMA20 sits below EMA50 with price under both. The minor high at 0.6955 and the lower high at 0.6994 sit overhead.
Support: 0.69364, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69943, 0.70423
What it said to watch
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 0.6994 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6936 swing low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery through the 0.6955 minor high would put the 50–61.8% fib retracement of the 0.7042 swing high leg in play
Friday NFP is the next scheduled USD-side risk to the swing structure
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7237 peak; price below 0.70.
Clean sequence of lower highs (0.7237, 0.7140, 0.7039, 0.6994) and lower lows since the early-window peak. Price trades under the descending lower-highs trendline near the 0.70 psych level, with EMA20 below EMA50 and RSI near 31. AUD slid after the RBA's 25bp hike to 4.6% came with a dovish Bullock tilt and failed to hold the soft US PCE bounce, slipping below the 0.6958 prior low into a fresh swing low at 0.6939. ATR(14) near 22 pips is steady rather than expanding, so the decline is grinding rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6994, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 0.6958 prior low would ease immediate pressure on the 0.6939 swing low
H4 close above the 0.6994 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.70 psych level and trendline in play
Failure to hold 0.6939 swing low extends the lower-low pattern toward the 0.6900 round number
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC) plus afternoon Fedspeak could materially shift this read via Fed October hike pricing
RSI near 30 leaves the move stretched; a rebound toward the fib 38.2% near 0.7016 would still sit within lower-high structure
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak. The descending lower-high line from 0.7140 has capped every bounce, including the 0.7039 lower high. The pair lost the 0.7000 psych level after Bullock's dovish hike and the soft trimmed-mean CPI, and price now sits on a fresh swing low near 0.6942 with the 0.6958 prior low overhead. ATR(14) has expanded to about 21 pips from mid-month compression, and price holds below both EMAs, consistent with an extending leg, though RSI near 29 marks the move as stretched.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 0.6958 prior low would ease the immediate downside pressure
Acceptance below the 0.6942 swing low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery above the 0.7000 psych level and the 0.7039 lower high near the 50% retrace would break the lower-high sequence
The RBA Financial Stability Review (01:30 UTC) and AU trade data could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read