Higher low at 0.6911 after 0.6903 low; tight Asian range under 0.6933.
The ISM prices-paid jump took out the 0.6940 london low and drove a slide from the 0.6956 day high to the 0.6903 day low as the USD extended its streak. Price has since put in a higher low at 0.6911 and recovered to a 0.6933 ny high near the 61.8% fib. Early Asia is holding a 5-pip range between the 0.6924 asian low and 0.6929, with EMA20 flat underfoot and ATR compressed to about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.6924, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6940, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 ny high reopens the 0.6940 london low breakdown point
Failure to hold the 0.6924 asian low exposes the 0.6911 higher low and the 0.6903 day low
US NFP (f/c 90K) Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; current range compression reflects pre-data positioning
23:32 UTC
Recovering from NY low, stalling under London low · RSI 58 · price 0.69288
Higher lows off 0.6903 low, now compressing in a tight 0.6924–0.6933 early-Asia range.
NY hours took out the Asian low at 0.6939 and the London low after the hot ISM prices-paid print lifted the USD, bottoming at the 0.6903 NY low before higher lows rebuilt the pair toward the 50% retrace near 0.6930. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.6924 rollover low and the 0.6933 late NY high, with price pinned at the EMA50 and ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69392
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 late NY high and 50% retrace opens a retest of the 0.6939 Asian low from below
Loss of the 0.6924 rollover low exposes the 0.6911 swing low and the rising trendline
Break of the 0.6903 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP, Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the NY low, capped at 50% retrace.
The NY-session break from 0.6940 after the hot ISM prices-paid print ran to a 0.6903 ny low. Since then a grinding flag of higher lows (0.6911, then the 0.6924 rollover low) has tagged the 50% fib of the selloff, with supply capping at the 0.6933 late ny high. Early Asia is quiet at 0.6929, ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6933 late ny high and the 61.8% fib near 0.6936 opens the path back toward the 0.6956 day high
Loss of the 0.6924 rollover low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6911 higher low, then the 0.6903 ny low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rising US yields and a hot ISM prices-paid print knocked AUD from the 0.6956 day high to a 0.6903 NY low. The rebound stalled twice at the 50% retrace near 0.6933. Early Asia session is compressed at 0.6924–0.6929, sitting on the rising trendline off the NY low, with ATR down to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6950, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 50% retrace opens the 0.6950 breakdown zone and the 0.6956 day high
Loss of the 0.6924 rollover low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6911 swing low, then the 0.6903 ny low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
The ISM-hour selloff, with hot prices paid feeding the US-yield story, broke the Asian range and ran to a day low of 0.6903. Higher lows at 0.6911 and the 0.6924 rollover low have lifted price back to the 50% retrace of the drop, but the late NY high at 0.6933 caps it into a thin early-Asia lull.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6940
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 late NY high opens the 0.6940 breakdown area
Loss of the 0.6924 rollover low and the rising support line exposes the 0.6911 higher low
Break of the 0.6903 day low resumes the post-ISM leg lower
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6903, capped at 0.6933 in thin early-Asia trade.
The hot ISM prices-paid print at 14:00 UTC drove a NY-session break of Thursday's 0.6940 Asian low, with the drop running to the 0.6903 NY low before a higher low at 0.6911 and a recovery that stalled at the 0.6933 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the sell-off. Post-rollover trade is thin and holding above the 0.6924 rollover low and the recovery trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6940, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 rebound high extends the recovery toward the 0.6940 asian low, now resistance, with the 0.6956 day high above
Break of the 0.6924 rollover low and the recovery trendline exposes the 0.6911 higher low and the 0.6903 NY low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read
Post-ISM selloff to 0.6903, higher lows since, recovery capped at 0.6933.
The 14:00 UTC ISM prices-paid jump drove AUD from below the 0.6955 day high to a 0.6903 session low as USD pushed to 18-month highs. The NY recovery stalled twice at the 0.6933 NY high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. Price now sits on rising support and the 38.2% fib at 0.6924 in thin early-Asia trade after the rollover.
Support: 0.6924, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6924 38.2% fib breaks rising support and exposes the 0.6911 swing low
Loss of the 0.6903 session low resumes the post-ISM downtrend
Close above the 0.6933 NY high clears the 61.8% retracement and reopens the 0.6955 day high
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the ny low, capped below the asian low.
The ISM prices-paid jump at the NY open fed fresh USD demand, and the pair broke the 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range to a 0.6903 ny low. Since then it has printed higher lows at 0.6911 and 0.6924 along a rising support line. The bounce high at 0.6933 sits in the 50–61.8% zone of the selloff fib. Post-NY trade is thin, with price flat on EMA20.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69392, 0.69553
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6924 late low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 0.6911 swing low, then the 0.6903 ny low
Close above the 0.6933 bounce high clears the 61.8% selloff fib area and puts the 0.6939 asian low back in play as resistance
Asia session liquidity is thin. A move back inside the asian range toward the 0.6955 asian high would undo the range break read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend from London, recovering in rising lows · RSI 45 · price 0.69263
Asian range broken lower; higher-low recovery off 0.6903 stalling below 0.6933.
The 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range gave way during NY hours after hot ISM prices paid and firm US yields, with the slide reaching a 0.6903 day low. Rising lows since then retraced about half the drop to a 0.6933 session high. Price is now drifting at 0.6926 in thin post-rollover trade, holding the 0.6924 late low and sitting right on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.69392
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6924 late low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.6911 higher low
Loss of the 0.6911 higher low reopens the 0.6903 day low
Close above the 0.6933 session high brings the broken 0.6939 asian low back in play as resistance, with the 0.6955 asian high above
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the main event risk once the Asia session passes
21:32 UTC
Rebounding after the NY selloff, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 0.69265
Higher lows off 0.6903, capped at 0.6933 near the 50–61.8% fib.
Hot ISM prices paid and a claims beat from 14:00 UTC, on top of fresh US yield highs, drove a ~50-pip slide from the 0.6956 day high to the 0.6903 NY low. The rebound printed a higher swing low at 0.6911 but stalled at the 0.6933 late NY high, inside the 50–61.8% fib of the drop. Early Asia session is holding the 0.6924 rollover low with price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 0.69238, 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6940, 0.69559
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6933 late NY high opens the 0.6940 breakdown zone, with the 0.6956 day high above
Loss of the 0.6924 rollover low exposes the 0.6911 swing low and the higher-low trendline
Break below the 0.6903 NY low resumes the post-ISM selloff
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
NY sell-off low at 0.6903, higher low at 0.6911, rebound capped at broken London low.
AUDUSD dropped about 52 pips during NY hours, from the 0.6956 day high to a 0.6903 day low, as US yields climbed on firm jobless claims and a hot ISM prices paid read. The rebound has stalled into the broken London low at 0.6930–0.6933, near the 50% fib. Price sits at the NY close with rising support from the day low still intact.
Support: 0.6921, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6937, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6932 london low and 50% fib opens the 0.6937 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 0.6921 fib 38.2 and rising support exposes the 0.6911 higher low, then the 0.6903 day low
Thin rollover liquidity into the Asia session; Friday's US NFP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
The 14:00 UTC US data (hot ISM prices paid, firm claims) broke the Asian range low near the 0.6940 breakdown level and drove price to the NY low at 0.6903. Since then a chain of higher lows along trendline support has retraced to the 50% fib of the sell-off near 0.6930. Price is pinned at the EMA50 in thin post-NY trade, with the late high at 0.6933 capping.
Support: 0.6921, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6940, 0.6955
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6933 late high puts the 0.6940 breakdown zone in play, and the asian high at 0.6955 above that
A break of the trendline near 0.6921 exposes the 0.6911 higher low and the 0.6903 NY low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 61 · price 0.69303
Higher lows off 0.6903, now at the 50% retrace.
A hot ISM Prices Paid print and firm claims drove the NY-session break of the Asian low at 0.6939 down to the 0.6903 NY low. Since then a higher-low chain off 0.6911 has climbed to the 50% fib of the 0.6956–0.6903 drop. Price is stalling at the 0.6933 late high, with the EMA50 sitting at the same level.
Support: 0.6921, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6936, 0.6939
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6933 late high and the 0.6936 fib 61.8 opens a retest of the 0.6939 Asian low
Break below the 0.6921 swing low ends the higher-low chain; the 0.6911 higher low is next
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.6903; price retesting broken London low from below.
The hot ISM Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC broke the day's 0.6930–0.6955 range. The slide reached 0.6903 in NY hours, a 52-pip ISM drop. A late-NY rising trendline of higher lows from 0.6911 has lifted price back to the broken london low at 0.6930, just above the 50% fib, with the late high at 0.6933 and the 61.8% fib at 0.6936 capping and EMA50 near 0.6940; RSI(14) is at 64.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6924, 0.6911
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6936, 0.6955
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.6924 ema20 and the rising trendline returns focus to the 0.6911 higher low and the 0.6903 NY low
Acceptance above the 0.6933 late high and the 0.6936 61.8% fib, with EMA50 near 0.6940, reopens the 0.6955 day high
Post-NY liquidity is thin into Asia. US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could reset intraday structure
Higher lows off 0.6903 NY low, retesting broken range base.
The 14:00 UTC US data hit (hot ISM prices paid, firm claims, yields higher) broke the Asian/London range base and ran AUDUSD to the 0.6903 NY low. Since then the pair has printed a higher low at 0.6911 and ground back to 0.6932, which is the session high and close to the 50% retrace of the sell-off from the 0.6956 London high, with price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6939, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6932 session high exposes the 0.6939 asian low, the base of the broken range
Failure to clear 0.6932 with a break of the 0.6911 higher low puts the 0.6903 ny low back in play
Only a reclaim of the 0.6956 london high negates the post-ISM breakdown
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next scheduled event risk; thin Asia session liquidity until then
Higher lows off the NY low, testing the rebound high.
Early NY broke the 0.6939–0.6956 Asian/London range lower as US yields pushed to fresh highs, bottoming at the 0.6903 NY low. Late-NY recovery has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline and is now pressing the 0.6932 rebound high, about the 50% fib of the 0.6956 day high to 0.6903 drop, with price back at EMA50 and RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 0.6921, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6936, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6932 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.6936
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.6921 minor hl undercuts the recovery; below the 0.6911 pullback low, the 0.6903 NY low is exposed
Fedspeak from Williams and Cook is still running into the Asia session handover and could shift US yields; NFP on Fri at 12:30 UTC is the next major risk
Lower high at 0.6932 after NY sell-off; higher lows forming off 0.6903.
Price was rejected at the 0.6956 session high, then broke below the 0.6939 Asian low after the 14:00 UTC ISM prices-paid jump lifted US yields; the sell-off bottomed at the 0.6903 NY low. The late-NY rebound is printing higher lows (0.6911) above EMA20 near 0.6925 and has stalled at the 50% retracement, just under the 0.6932 lower high where EMA50 sits. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 8 pips.
Support: 0.6925, 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6939, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6932 lower high and EMA50 opens a retest of the 0.6939 Asian low
Loss of EMA20 and the 0.6911 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and returns focus to the 0.6903 NY low
Fedspeak from Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) and NFP at 12:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Post-ISM selloff, recovering in late NY · RSI 56 · price 0.6929
Higher lows off 0.6903, testing rebound high.
Rejection at the 0.6956 london high, then the hot ISM prices-paid print at 14:00 UTC broke the Asian range and ran to a 0.6903 session low. Late NY has built a higher low at 0.6911 and is pressing the 0.6932 rebound high, around the 50% fib of the drop.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6939, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6932 rebound high opens a retest of the 0.6939 asian low, the old range floor
Loss of the 0.6911 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and exposes the 0.6903 session low
Fed speakers Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) can shift US yields and this read
Asian range broken lower after ISM; higher lows off session low.
The 0.6940–0.6955 Asian range held through London, then broke lower at the 14:00 UTC ISM release as US yields pushed higher, with the slide reaching a 0.6903 session low. Late NY has rebuilt from there with a higher low at 0.6911, and price sits near the 38.2% retracement under the 0.6932 bounce high.
Support: 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69315, 0.6940
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6932 bounce high puts the 0.6940 Asian low, the old range floor, in play as a retest
Loss of the 0.6911 higher low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 0.6903 session low
Bowman (19:00 UTC), then Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) speak within the hour; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
0.6955 Asian high caps the window; reclaiming it would undo the range break
The jump in ISM prices paid at 14:00 UTC, on top of firm claims data, broke the London low at 0.6930 and the Asian range, putting the NY session low at 0.6903. The rebound was rejected at the 0.6932 bounce high, near the 50% retrace of the ISM drop fib. Price now holds 0.6924 at the 38.2% level after a higher low at 0.6911, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6932, 0.6939, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6932 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.6939 Asian low back in play
Loss of the 0.6911 higher low exposes the 0.6903 session low and the 0.6900 psych level
Bowman (19:00 UTC), then Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC), could reprice Treasury yields and shift this read
NFP Friday 12:30 UTC is the next major USD risk; the 0.6956 session high caps the day's range
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 51 · price 0.69241
Higher lows off NY low, capped below broken Asian range.
A hot ISM prices paid print and higher US yields broke AUD/USD below the 0.6939 Asian low, extending to a 0.6903 NY low. The bounce since has printed higher lows at 0.6909 and 0.6911 along a rising trendline but was rejected at the 0.6932 swing high near the 50% fib. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement and EMA20 around 0.6924.
Support: 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69315, 0.69392
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) speak within the hour and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6932 swing high reclaims the 50% fib and exposes the 0.6939 Asian low
Failure to hold the 0.6911 higher low breaks the rising trendline and reopens the 0.6903 NY low
The US ISM release, with hot prices paid and firm claims extending the USD bid, broke AUDUSD out of the 0.6930–0.6956 Asian/London range and printed a 0.6903 session low in the NY session. The late-NY bounce stalled at a 0.6932 lower high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the ISM leg and under the falling trendline from 0.6953. Price is now around 0.6920, capped by the ema20 with the 0.6911 swing low beneath.
Support: 0.69109, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69235, 0.69315
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) speak within the hour and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.6932 lower high and the trendline voids the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 0.6911 swing low exposes the 0.6903 session low
Repeated closes back above the ema20 at 0.6924 point to the bounce extending
NY break of London low, retest rejected, higher low forming above day low.
NY session broke the London low at 0.6931 after hot ISM Prices Paid and firm claims lifted US yields, extending to a day low at 0.6903. The rebound stalled at 0.6932, a retest of the old London low near the 50% fib, and price now sits below EMA20 with a higher low at 0.6911.
Support: 0.6911, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.6955
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC, then Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the London low at 0.6931 negates the retest rejection and opens 0.6955 London high
Failure to hold the 0.6911 higher low exposes the 0.6903 day low
Sellers broke the Asian range and the 0.6930 London low after the ISM release during NY hours. Hot Prices Paid lifted US yields, and the move printed a 0.6903 day low. The rebound stalled at 0.6931, near the 50% fib and just under the broken london low, and price has slipped back below ema20 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.6909, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6931, 0.6955
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6931 london low reclaims the broken level and breaks the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 0.6909 higher low exposes the 0.6903 day low
A retracement beyond the 61.8% fib at 0.6936 reopens the 0.6955 session high
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift yields and this read within the next 90 minutes
Asian range broken lower in NY; higher-low rebound capped below London low.
NY broke the 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range lower after the hot ISM prices-paid print lifted US yields, flushing to a 0.6903 session low. The rebound printed a higher low at 0.6909 and stalled at the London low near 0.6931, with price holding just above the 38.2% fib and flat against EMA20.
Support: 0.69235, 0.69086, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69304, 0.69358, 0.69392
What it said to watch
M15 close above the London low at 0.6931 opens the 61.8% fib at 0.6936 and the Asian low at 0.6939
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 0.6924 and the 0.6909 higher low puts the 0.6903 session low back in play
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) within ~2h could materially shift this read
Post-ISM selloff to 0.6903, higher low at 0.6909, retesting broken London low.
After a failed push at the 0.6955 session high, the pair sold off on hot ISM prices paid and rising US yields from 14:00 UTC to a 0.6903 session low. A higher low at 0.6909 printed late in NY hours, and price is now back at the 0.6930 london low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 0.6956–0.6903 drop.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6909, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6936, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6930 london low reasserts the downtrend; loss of the 0.6909 higher low exposes the 0.6903 session low
Close above the 0.6936 61.8% fib would leave the 0.6955 session high as the next cap
Fed speakers Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook through 19:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
Lower highs from 0.6955, tight 0.6903–0.6921 range late NY.
The ISM-hour selloff, on hot prices paid and rising US yields, broke the Asian low near 0.6939 and the London low at 0.6930. Price printed a session low at 0.6903. The bounce stalled twice at 0.6921, below the 38.2% fib of the 0.6956–0.6903 drop, and a higher low at 0.6909 leaves price compressing late in NY with RSI near 40.
Support: 0.6909, 0.6903, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6921, 0.6930, 0.6939
What it said to watch
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6921 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.6930 london low is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6909 higher low and 0.6903 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Reclaim of the 0.6939 asian low would neutralise the range break
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major volatility event
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce capped · RSI 28 · price 0.69105
Lower highs after NY break of the Asian and London lows.
The NY session broke the 0.6939 asian low and the 0.6930 london low after hot ISM prices paid pushed US yields higher. Price printed a day low at 0.6903, and the bounce stalled at 0.6921. That bounce high sits on the lower highs trendline, and RSI(14) is near 28 in late NY hours.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69214, 0.69304, 0.69392
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6903 day low and the 0.6900 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6921 bounce high and the lower highs trendline undercuts the downtrend read; the 0.6930 london low is the next level overhead
Reclaiming the 0.6939 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) could shift yields and this read
16:47 UTC
Downtrend after NY sell-off, bounce stalling · RSI 29 · price 0.69145
London range 0.6930–0.6956 broken lower in NY; lower highs since 11:15 UTC.
London held a 0.6930–0.6956 range and capped near the Asian high. Early NY broke the London low after firm jobless claims and a hot ISM Prices Paid print bid the USD, with the slide extending to a 0.6903 session low. The rebound stalled twice at the 0.6921 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY leg; RSI(14) is near 29 after the move.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69214, 0.69304, 0.69392
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6903 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery above the 38.2% fib and the 0.6930 London low would undercut the NY breakdown read
0.6939 Asian low is the upper reference if the bounce extends
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 37 · price 0.69212
Range break lower, first bounce into fib resistance.
The day's Asian/London range of 0.6930–0.6956 broke lower in NY after the hot ISM Prices Paid print and firm claims lifted USD, sliding to a 0.6903 session low. Price has bounced about 18 pips into the 38.2% fib near 0.6924. It is still below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-30 and the London low and Asian low now overhead.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.69304, 0.69392
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 38.2% fib (0.6924) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close back above the 0.6930 london low negates the range break
Loss of the 0.6903 session low exposes the 0.6900 psych level
Fedspeak from Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman and Williams/Cook later in NY hours could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, sharp NY sell-off with first bounce · RSI 24 · price 0.69142
Range break lower, lower highs since 0.6956.
AUDUSD held a 0.6939–0.6956 range through Asia and London, then broke lower after the 14:00 UTC ISM release. Hot Prices Paid and firmer claims lifted USD, and the slide cleared the london low at 0.6930 and the asian low at 0.6939 before printing a session low at 0.6903 during NY hours. A first bounce is stalling under the 0.6918 breakdown shelf, with RSI(14) near 24 after the drop.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69179, 0.69304, 0.69392
What it said to watch
Hold of 0.6918 breakdown as resistance keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close back above the london low at 0.6930, the 50% fib of the ISM sell-off, would neutralise the breakdown read
Loss of the 0.6903 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) could materially shift this read
Re-entry above the 0.6939 asian low would put price back inside the prior range
Asian/London range 0.6930–0.6955 broken lower; fresh lower low at 0.6903.
Supply capped the 0.6955 area three times across Asia, London and early NY. The 14:00 UTC ISM bar then broke the range: the headline missed, but hot Prices Paid and firm claims kept USD bid, and price cut through the 0.6939 Asian low and the 0.6930 London low to a 0.6903 session low. RSI(14) is near 25 and the current bar is stalling just above the 0.6900 round number.
Support: 0.69034, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69224, 0.69304, 0.69392
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6903 session low and 0.6900 round number extends the NY-session lower-low chain
A move back through the 38.2% fib at 0.6922 marks the first retracement of the ISM leg
Reclaiming the 0.6930 London low, and then the Asian low at 0.6939, would turn the breakdown into a false break
Fed's Jefferson (17:30), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could extend or reverse the USD move into the NY close
NY-session breakdown below Asian and London lows, lower highs.
After a rejection at the 0.6955 session high, the ISM Prices Paid beat (77.9) and firmer jobless claims drove a USD-led NY-session slide through the Asian low at 0.6939 and the London low at 0.6930, printing a session low at 0.6905. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold after a roughly 50-pip drop in under two hours, with the broken London low and the fib 38.2 near 0.6925 now overhead.
Support: 0.69054, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69247, 0.69304, 0.69392
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6905 session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery back above the London low at 0.6930, which is also the 50% fib, would mark the breakdown as overextended
Reclaim of the Asian low at 0.6939 negates the range break read
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift USD hike pricing after London close
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive NY leg lower · RSI 23 · price 0.69172
Day range 0.6930–0.6956 broken lower, lower highs.
Two rejections at the 0.6955 day high led to a breakdown after the ISM print, whose hawkish prices-paid detail and firm claims kept USD bid. The NY session then took out the 0.6930 London low and is printing a fresh session low near 0.6917, with RSI(14) oversold around 23.
Support: 0.69168, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69304, 0.69371
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6930 London low, near the 38.2% fib, would mark the break as a false break
Ny shelf at 0.6937 and the 50–61.8% fib zone (0.6936–0.6941) cap any rebound while the lower-highs line holds
Failure to hold the session low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC and later Bowman, Williams and Cook could shift USD tone into Friday NFP
0.6930–0.6956 range broken lower after ISM; fresh 24h low.
The hot ISM prices-paid detail at 14:00 UTC broke the 0.6940 floor of the London-NY range. Follow-through took out the 0.6930 london low and printed a session low near 0.6920, about 36 pips off the 0.6956 range top. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold after the leg, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6940, 0.6956
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6920 session low exposes the 0.6900 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.6930 london low weakens the breakdown read; reclaiming the 0.6940 ism break (50–61.8% of the ISM leg fib) puts price back inside the prior range
Range top at 0.6956 caps the structure; only a return there neutralises the downtrend
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low in NY · RSI 28 · price 0.6926
Broke below London low, lower low.
USD demand after the 14:00 UTC ISM release (headline miss, but prices paid and claims firm) knocked AUDUSD off the 0.6946–0.6956 NY range. A two-step slide broke the ism base at 0.6937 and the london low at 0.6930, printing a session low at 0.6923. RSI(14) is near 28, short-term stretched, and ATR(14) has expanded to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.6923, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6937, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the london low at 0.6930 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6923 session low leaves the 0.6900 round number as the next reference
Reclaiming the 0.6937 ism base and the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 0.6956 ny high would neutralise the down-leg
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman, Williams and Cook, could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since late London · RSI 48 · price 0.69409
0.6930–0.6956 range; price back at the Asian range low.
The 0.6956 session high capped price twice, late London and on the jobless-claims bar. The ISM bar (headline miss, hot prices paid) then took AUDUSD back through the Asian low to a 0.6937 NY low. Price now sits at 0.6941 on the 61.8% retrace of the london rally from 0.6930, below EMA20 near 0.6945, with lower highs intact.
Support: 0.69371, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.69559
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6937 ny low exposes the 0.6930 london low and the range floor
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.6945 and the lower highs line puts the 0.6956 session high back in play
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Choppy intraday range, sellers active after ISM · RSI 44 · price 0.69394
Lower highs from 0.6956, price at Asian range low.
London broke below the 0.6939 Asian range low and printed a 0.6930 London low. NY recovered to the 0.6955 Asian high, where price was rejected, and the hot ISM prices paid (77.9) then knocked it back to 0.6939. Price is now at the 61.8% of the London-NY rebound, under ema20 and a lower highs line, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.69371, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6937 NY low exposes the 0.6930 London low and the 78.6% fib near 0.6936
Recovery above ema20 near 0.6946 and the lower highs line reopens the 0.6955 Asian high
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
14:17 UTC
Intraday range, sellers back in on ISM · RSI 44 · price 0.6941
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 broken both ways; now back at range low.
London broke below the Asian low and printed the London low at 0.6930, then reversed to sweep the Asian high, with rejection three times at the 0.6955 session high. The ISM release at 14:00 UTC (prices paid 77.9 vs 72.3) bid USD and dropped price straight back to the Asian low at 0.6939, which is also the 61.8% retrace of the London rally, with price now under the ema20 near 0.6946.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6955, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asian low at 0.6939 (61.8% retrace) exposes the London low at 0.6930
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.6946 returns price to mid-range; a close above the 0.6955 session high opens the 0.6964 prior high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Range, recovering from London low · RSI 53 · price 0.69482
London swept below the Asian range, NY reclaimed it; capped at session high.
London swept the Asian low near 0.6939 to a 0.6930 London low, then NY reclaimed the Asian range off a 0.6940 pullback low. Supply has capped price twice at the 0.6956 session high, leaving it coiled at 0.6948, just over the 0.6946 NY low at the 38.2% fib, as US ISM hits.
Support: 0.69456, 0.69395, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69559, 0.69637
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read.
An M15 close above the 0.6956 session high breaks the NY cap and exposes the 0.6964 prior high.
Failure to hold the 0.6946 NY low (38.2% fib) opens the 0.6940 pullback low and then the 0.6930 London low.
Fed speakers at 17:30-19:30 UTC are a second risk window into the NY afternoon.
13:47 UTC
Neutral, recovering from London low · RSI 53 · price 0.69477
False break below Asian range, rebound capped at Asian high.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.6939 to a session low of 0.6930, then reversed back into the range. The rebound stalled four times at the Asian high near 0.6955, and price is now compressing near 0.6948 above a 0.6946 higher low, with ISM due shortly. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 5.6 pips, while dovish RBA repricing against a firm USD keeps the pair heavy.
Support: 0.69456, 0.69392, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69555, 0.69637
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6955 Asian high opens the 0.6964 prior high
Loss of the 0.6946 higher low exposes the 0.6939 Asian low and the 50% London rebound fib near 0.6943
Break below the 0.6930 session low negates the false-break read
13:32 UTC
Range, recovering off London low · RSI 54 · price 0.69467
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 rebuilt after London sweep; range top capping.
London swept below the 0.6939 Asian low to a 0.6930 london low, then rebuilt the whole Asian range. The 0.6955 asian high has capped three times, including after the firmer US jobless claims print. Price now sits mid-range at 0.6947 on the 0.6946 pivot lows, about 36% into the fib retracement of the rebound, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.69456, 0.69395, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69555, 0.69637
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC (in ~30 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the range top, with the 0.6964 prior high next
Loss of the 0.6946 pivot lows and the 0.6940 swing low exposes the 0.6930 london low
Holding the 50% fib of the rebound near 0.6943 keeps the post-sweep recovery structure intact
London broke below Asian range, reclaimed it; capped at session high.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.6940 to a 0.6930 london low, but the 0.6930–0.6956 rebound stalled with three rejections at the 0.6955 session high, including after the 12:30 UTC claims beat. Price sits mid-range at 0.6947 into ISM, with AUD heavy on Bullock's dovish tilt and USD firm on yields.
Support: 0.6940, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6965
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6955 session high opens the 0.6965 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6940 asian low, near the 61.8% of the 0.6930–0.6956 rebound, exposes the 0.6930 london low
Higher lows from 0.6930, flat highs at asian high.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.6939 and printed a 0.6930 london low, then reclaimed the range; the London rally has stalled at the asian high near 0.6955, which rejected four tests into the NY open. The beat in jobless claims gave a two-way swing, and price now sits on rising support near 0.6949, just under the 0.6950 78.6% Fibo flagged in the macro digest, with USD firm at its YTD high.
Support: 0.69464, 0.69395, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69555, 0.6968
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the cap and opens the 0.6968 prior high
Loss of the 0.6946 ny low (38.2% of the London rally) and rising support exposes the 0.6940 swing low, then the 0.6930 london low
12:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, capped at session high · RSI 59 · price 0.69532
V-recovery from London low, higher low at 0.6940, stalling below 0.6956.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range low to the 0.6930 london low, then a V-shaped recovery printed a higher low at 0.6940. The late-London push through the Asian range high was rejected at the 0.6956 session high. Price is holding above the 0.6946 pullback low after jobless claims, with RSI(14) near 59 and the USD bid on 24-year-high yields capping the bounce near the 0.6950 fib zone flagged in the digest.
Support: 0.69464, 0.69395, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69559, 0.69735
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6956 session high reopens the path toward the 0.6973 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Failure to hold the 0.6946 pullback low and then the 0.6940 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and puts the 0.6930 london low back in focus
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday range, mild recovery off London low · RSI 56 · price 0.6950
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 held after both-side probes; higher lows since 0.6930.
London broke below the Asian low to 0.6930, then reversed back inside the range. The bounce tagged the session high at 0.6956 and was rejected, leaving price mid-range near 0.6950 at the NY open as a yield-driven USD bid keeps the pair heavy. Higher lows at 0.6930 and 0.6940 define the rising lows, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 0.6940, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6956 session high breaks the Asian range top and exposes the 0.6964 prior swing
Failure to hold the 0.6940 Asian low breaks the rising lows and puts the 0.6930 London low back in focus
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling at Asian high · RSI 61 · price 0.69499
London low at 0.6930, higher low at 0.6940, rejected at 0.6956.
London swept the Asian low and printed a 0.6930 london low before a V-shaped rebound to the 0.6956 asian high, where supply capped the move. A higher low at 0.6940 holds the recovery. USD stays firm on 24-year-high Treasury yields, keeping the pair pinned near 0.6950 into US data.
Support: 0.6940, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6987
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6956 asian high opens the path to the 0.6987 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6940 higher low exposes the 0.6930 london low and voids the rebound structure
London swept the Asian low, then higher lows to the Asian high.
London broke below the 0.6939 Asian low to a 0.6930 session low, but the move failed. A higher low at 0.6940 has carried price back to the Asian high at 0.6956, which aligns with the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's slide from the 0.6987 prior high. A dollar kept firm by record long-end yields has kept rallies shallow so far, and US data now lands into this test.
Support: 0.6940, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6956 asian high opens the 0.6964 swing high
Loss of the 0.6940 higher low puts the 0.6930 london low back in focus
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A rally into the 0.6987 prior high would mean a full retrace of yesterday's slide
11:47 UTC
Sideways, recovering off London low · RSI 57 · price 0.6947
Back inside Asian range 0.6940–0.6955 after a London false break lower.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.6940 and printed a London low at 0.6930, then reclaimed the range. Price is back near 0.6947, pressing the 0.6948 rebound high with a higher low along rising support. A firm USD on record long-end yields keeps the 0.6955 Asian high, near the 78.6% fib cited around 0.6950, capping the recovery late in London.
Support: 0.6940, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6955, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 Asian high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 0.6987 prior high, the PCE-day spike
Failure to hold the 0.6940 Asian low and rising support exposes the 0.6930 London low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
Asian range broken lower in London; lower high at 0.6948 after 0.6930 low.
London open broke the 0.6939 Asian low and pressed to a 0.6930 session low. The rebound stalled at the 0.6948 rebound high near the 78.6% retrace of the London drop, and price is back on the Asian low with RSI(14) near 50. USD firmness on high yields keeps the pair heavy ahead of US data.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6955
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6939 Asian low reopens the 0.6930 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.6948 rebound high and the 0.6955 Asian high negates the London breakdown read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Heavy, range-bound under 0.6955 · RSI 53 · price 0.69432
False break below Asian low, back inside 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.6939 and pressed to a 0.6930 London low. Price then rebounded to the 0.6948 rebound high, about 74% of the London drop fib, and has slipped back inside the Asian range late in London. The pair is chopping around 0.6943, between EMA20 and EMA50, with USD firm on yields ahead of US data.
Support: 0.69392, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69482, 0.69553
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6939 Asian low reopens the 0.6930 London low
M15 close above the 0.6948 rebound high puts the 0.6955 Asian high in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Range, rebounding off London low · RSI 58 · price 0.69462
False break below Asian low, reclaimed; back inside Asian range.
London broke the asian low at 0.6939 and printed a session low at 0.6930, then rebounded in a V back inside the Asian range. Price is now pressing the 0.6948 rebound high, around the 61.8% of the London leg fib, with the 0.6955 asian high capping the range. AUD tone stays heavy after Bullock's dovish tilt, and the USD side awaits US data.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6955
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Rejection at the 0.6948 rebound high and loss of the 0.6939 asian low reopens the 0.6930 session low
Break of the 0.6930 session low would turn the false break into a lower-low
False break below Asian low, now back inside the Asian range.
London broke the Asian low at 0.6939 and extended the slide from yesterday's 0.6987 PCE spike to a 0.6930 session low. Price has since rebounded to the 0.6947 rebound high, about a 62% retrace of the Asian high–session low drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.69392, 0.69304
Resistance: 0.69469, 0.69553
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6947 rebound high and the 61.8% fib opens the Asian high at 0.6955
Failure to hold back above the Asian low at 0.6939 re-exposes the 0.6930 session low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke below Asian range, lower highs and lows, now retesting the broken Asian low.
London capped below the 0.6955 Asian high and broke the 0.6939 Asian low. It held London lows near 0.6934 before printing a 0.6930 session low. Price has rebounded to 0.6943, at the 50% retrace of the Asia-London drop and the lower-highs line off the 0.6946 London high, with a firm USD on 24-year-high yields keeping the bounce shallow.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6934, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6946, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6946 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6955 asian high back in view
Failure back below the 0.6939 asian low returns focus to london lows at 0.6934 and the 0.6930 session low
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into London · RSI 30 · price 0.69322
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower-high/lower-low chain intact.
London opened with a break below the 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range and has since stacked lower highs under a falling trendline, printing a fresh session low near 0.6932. This extends the fade from Wednesday's post-PCE spike to 0.6987. Firm USD on yields remains the backdrop, and RSI(14) near 30 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6939, 0.6944, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6944 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Reclaim of the 0.6939 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6930 psych level extends the lower-low sequence beyond the session low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 0.6987 spike; Asian range broken lower at London open.
London open was rejected at 0.6955, just under the Asian high, then broke the Asian low at 0.6939 and printed a 0.6934 London low as USD stayed firm on yields. The bounce stalled at 0.6944, just shy of the 50% retrace of the London leg, and price is back at the Asian low with both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.69392, 0.69343
Resistance: 0.69438, 0.6950, 0.69553
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6934 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6944 bounce high and 50% retrace reopens the Asian range toward the 0.6950 round number and 0.6955 asian high
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
09:33 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off London low · RSI 49 · price 0.69429
Lower highs since PCE spike; London swept Asian low, now back inside.
London open broke the 0.6939 asian low and extended to the 0.6934 london low, where three tests held. Price has reclaimed 0.6939 and is pressing EMA20 near 0.6943, at the 38.2% of the asian high–london low fib. The lower-high sequence from yesterday's PCE spike to 0.6987 is intact, with AUD heavy on Bullock's dovish tilt and USD firm on yields.
Support: 0.69392, 0.69343
Resistance: 0.69461, 0.69553
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6946 london high and EMA50 opens the path to the 0.6955 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6939 asian low puts the 0.6934 london low back in play
Break below the 0.6934 london low confirms a fresh lower-low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY spike; Asian range broken lower at London open, retesting from below.
London open broke below the Asian low at 0.6939, extending the slide from yesterday's NY spike at 0.6987 as a firm USD and Bullock's dovish tilt weigh on AUD. Four tests of the 0.6934 London low held. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of the London drop, and price now sits back at the Asian low from below. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR(14) about 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.69343, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69392, 0.69461, 0.69553
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 0.6939 asian low and the 0.6946 lower high would negate the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6934 london low opens the 0.6930 round number
Reclaiming the 0.6955 asian high would undo the London breakdown
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range low; lower highs pressing into the session low.
London opened with a break below the 0.6939 Asian low and printed a 0.6934 session low. Bounces have stalled under a lower-high trendline, and price sits just below the old Asian low with RSI(14) near 36, not oversold. AUD remains heavy on Bullock's dovish tilt and a firm USD ahead of US data.
Support: 0.69344, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69392, 0.69461, 0.69553
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6939 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
A close above the 0.6946 bounce high would break the lower-high trendline and reclaim the 50% fib
Failure to hold the 0.6934 session low exposes the 0.6930 round number
A recovery through the 0.6955 asian high would negate the London breakdown
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
London open broke the Asian range lower; lower highs capped under the descending trendline.
London broke the 0.6940–0.6955 Asian range lower and printed a 0.6935 london low, with AUD heavy below the 0.6950 Fib on Bullock's dovish tilt and a firm USD. Bounces have stalled near 0.6946 under the descending trendline from the post-PCE 0.6987 spike. RSI(14) is near 37, so price is not stretched.
Support: 0.6935, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6940, 0.6946, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6940 asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6935 london low exposes the 0.6930 round number
Reclaim of the descending trendline and the 0.6955 asian high (38.2% fib) undoes the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims in ~4h and ISM Mfg plus Waller in ~6h could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, early London extending lower · RSI 41 · price 0.69401
Lower highs since the PCE spike; Asian range broken to the downside.
The NY-hours spike to 0.6987 on the PCE/GDP data was fully reversed, leaving a lower-high sequence into a 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range. Early London broke the asian low to a 0.6936 london low, with the bounce high at 0.6946 capping and RSI(14) near 41. This is consistent with the firm-USD, dovish-Bullock backdrop below the 0.6950 psych level.
Support: 0.69392, 0.69364
Resistance: 0.69461, 0.6950, 0.69553
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6936 london low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 0.6946 bounce high puts price back inside the Asian range
Reclaim of 0.6950 psych and the 0.6955 asian high (38.2% of the PCE spike retrace) negates the range break
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low at London open · RSI 43 · price 0.69413
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 broken lower; lower highs since the post-PCE spike.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.6939 and printed a 24h low at 0.6936 (london low). USD stays firm and Bullock's dovish tilt weighs on AUD. Price sits just under yesterday's ny low at 0.6942, with the 78.6% fib near 0.6950 and the Asian high at 0.6955 capping. The Asian high also lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the post-PCE drop.
Support: 0.69392, 0.69364
Resistance: 0.69421, 0.6950, 0.69553
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 0.6936 extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the ny low at 0.6942 and the 78.6% fib at 0.6950 neutralises the range break
M15 close above the asian high at 0.6955 (38.2% of the post-PCE drop) invalidates the downtrend read
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) with Waller could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 24h low · RSI 34 · price 0.69392
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower low below prior NY low.
Price rejected just under the 0.6955 Asian high, and the London open bar then broke the 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range lower. It printed a London low at 0.6938, below yesterday's NY low at 0.6942. The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 has been fully unwound, and AUD is still heavy below the 0.6950 78.6% fib on Bullock's dovish tilt and a firm USD.
Support: 0.6938, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6942, 0.6950, 0.6955
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6938 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6930 round number
M15 close back above the 0.6942 NY low, returning price inside the Asian range, would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 0.6950 78.6% fib and the 0.6955 Asian high would negate the London breakdown
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955, higher lows into London open.
The soft-PCE spike to 0.6987 faded within the hour, and price ground down to an Asian low of 0.6939, tested twice as a double bottom. Since then the Asian range has formed higher lows at 0.6941 and the 0.6946 London low, while the 0.6955 Asian high has capped two pushes and price sits at the 23.6% fib of the post-PCE drop in early London trade.
Support: 0.6946, 0.6941, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6958, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 Asian high breaks the range and brings the 38.2% fib at 0.6958, then the 0.6964 prior pivot, into play
Loss of the 0.6946 London low and the 0.6941 higher low puts the 0.6939 Asian low and the double-bottom read at risk
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing since Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.69517
Higher lows under a flat 0.6955 cap inside the Asian range.
The soft-PCE spike to 0.6987 at 12:30 UTC faded fully and price slid to the 0.6939 Asian low as Bullock's dovish tilt kept AUD heavy. Asia then printed higher lows into 0.6946 while the 0.6955 Asian high rejected three times, just under the 38.2% fib of the post-PCE decline. Price is pinned at the 0.6950 psych level into the London open.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6946, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69576, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 Asian high exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.6958 and the 0.6964 swing high
Loss of the 0.6946 higher low breaks the Asia higher lows line and puts the 0.6939 Asian low back in play
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Range after NY selloff, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 0.69487
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955, rising lows, highs capped near 0.6954.
AUDUSD reversed hard from the 0.6987 spike high on the US PCE/GDP data and slid into a tight Asian range of 0.6939–0.6955. The asian low held twice, a higher low printed at 0.6941 and the asian high capped twice. Price sits mid-range at 0.6949 into London open, just under the 23.6% of the spike-drop fib, with RSI(14) near 51 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.6946, 0.69413, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6939 asian low breaks the range and confirms acceptance under the 0.6950 area
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high opens the 0.6964 ny swing hi
Loss of the 0.6946 pivot low and the rising lows trendline puts the 0.6941 higher low back in play
US jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller (14:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Basing after NY selloff, micro higher lows · RSI 58 · price 0.69525
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955, testing top pre-London.
Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 0.6987 fully unwound as US data beats lifted USD. Asia then carved a double bottom at the 0.6939 asian low. Price is pressing the 0.6955 asian high again 30 minutes before London open, sitting near the 23.6% retrace of the PCE spike fib, with a higher low at 0.6941 under it. RSI(14) is at 58, and the range top has capped twice.
Support: 0.69413, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.6964 swing high
Loss of the 0.6941 higher low puts the 0.6939 asian low, and the double bottom, back in question
US jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, basing in Asia · RSI 59 · price 0.69528
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 with shallow higher lows, price pressing the range top.
The 12:30 GMT post-PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully rejected as USD dip-buying took hold, and the pair bled to the 0.6939 asian low in early Asia. Asia has since held a 0.6939–0.6955 range with rising Asian lows at 0.6941. Price is retesting the 0.6955 asian high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.6947, 0.69413, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the Asian range. The 38.2% of the pce spike fib (0.6958) and the 0.6964 ny pivot sit just above.
Loss of the 0.6941 higher low and the 0.6939 asian low resumes the post-PCE lower-low sequence.
Slipping back under the 0.6947 minor base returns price to mid-range chop.
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT), ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 GMT) could materially shift this read.
06:03 UTC
Post-PCE downtrend, flattening into range · RSI 54 · price 0.69482
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 with a higher low at 0.6941.
Yesterday's PCE spike high at 0.6987 reversed into a steady decline, and AUD stayed heavy on Bullock's dovish tilt. The Asian session then held a 0.6939–0.6955 range: a rejection at the Asian high was followed by a higher low at 0.6941, leaving price mid-range near 0.6948 into London open with ATR around 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.69413, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.6964 swing high in view
Failure to hold the 0.6941 higher low exposes the 0.6939 asian low and resumes the post-PCE decline
Fib retracement of the post-PCE decline: the asian high sits just under the 38.2% level
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
PCE spike high at 0.6987 caps the broader intraday structure
05:47 UTC
Sideways after NY sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 56 · price 0.6948
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 holding below the post-PCE spike; flat EMAs, no HH/HL chain.
The pce spike to 0.6987 on the soft PCE print was fully faded in NY, and Bullock's dovish tilt has kept AUD heavy since. Late Asia is boxed between the asian low at 0.6939 and the asian high at 0.6955, with a rejection at the top and a 05:00 swing low at 0.6941. Price sits near 0.6948, 18% back up the fib from the pce spike to the asian low, with ATR around 3.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.6941, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
A London close outside the 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range ends the range read.
Failure to hold the 0.6941 swing low and 0.6939 asian low extends the lower-low sequence from the pce spike.
A move above the asian high puts the 0.6964 ny swing hi and the 38.2% fib in view.
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing and Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read.
05:32 UTC
Down-leg from PCE spike, stalled into Asian range · RSI 56 · price 0.69475
0.6939–0.6955 Asian range after NY lower-high sequence; rejection at range top, higher low at 0.6941.
AUD/USD faded the post-PCE spike to the 0.6987 PCE high through NY as US growth beats and Bullock's dovish tilt weighed, then based at the 0.6939 Asian low. The late-Asia bounce was rejected at the 0.6955 Asian high, and price is back mid-range near 0.6948 on flat EMAs, with a higher low at 0.6941 and RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.69413, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.69553, 0.69874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6955 Asian high breaks the range; 0.6950 round number is the first cap and the 38.2% fib of the PCE-high drop sits near 0.6958
Failure to hold the 0.6941 higher low exposes the 0.6939 Asian low; a break below resumes the NY down-leg
London open in ~1.5h is likely to define the session range out of the 16-pip Asian band
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend stalled, flat in Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.6945
Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 after NY sell-off from the PCE spike.
The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully sold during NY hours as US growth beats and Bullock's dovish tilt weighed, and Asia has since boxed price in a 0.6939–0.6955 range. A push to the Asian high was rejected, leaving price mid-range near 0.6945 above a 0.6941 higher low. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 with ATR around 3.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.6941, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6939 Asian low resumes the NY downtrend leg
Close above the 0.6955 Asian high exposes the 0.6964 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.6941 higher low puts the Asian low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ISM follows shortly after
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing in late Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.69454
Lower highs since the PCE spike; Asian range 0.6939–0.6955 with price mid-range.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully reversed during NY hours, a lower-highs sequence that fits the digest's dovish-Bullock, firm-USD read. In Asia, demand held twice at 0.6939–0.6940 under the 0.6942 NY low, but the bounce met rejection at the 0.6955 Asia high; price now sits mid-range near 0.6945 with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
London open break of the 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range sets the next intraday leg
Failure to hold the 0.6942 NY low and 0.6939 Asia low extends the PCE sell-off lower-low chain
M15 close above 0.6955 breaks the lower highs line and opens the 0.6964 swing high
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; 0.6987 pce high is the post-data ceiling
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into Asian range · RSI 50 · price 0.69458
Lower highs since the data spike; Asia ranging 0.6939–0.6955.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.6987 was fully unwound, and AUD ground lower through NY into a 0.6939–0.6955 Asian range as the Bullock dovish tilt keeps it heavy. A pop to the Asian high at 0.6955 stalled just under the 38.2% spike fib and was rejected back to 0.6945. RSI(14) is flat near 50, and price sits just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.69421, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the NY low at 0.6942 and the Asian low at 0.6939 extends the lower-low sequence from the data spike
M15 close back above the 0.6955 Asian high exposes the 0.6964 swing high, with the data spike high at 0.6987 above that
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia double bottom at 0.6939, neckline 0.6948 broken, higher lows.
NY's soft-PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully unwound on the heavy AUD tone. The Asia session then built a double bottom at 0.6939–0.6940 and broke the 0.6948 neckline to a 0.6955 session high, with price now retesting on higher lows. RSI(14) sits near 61 and price is above both EMAs.
Support: 0.69481, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69553, 0.69637
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.6948 neckline (50% of the Asia upswing) keeps the double bottom intact. A close back below it marks a false break
Break of the Asia higher-lows trendline puts the 0.6939 asia low back in play. Losing that low resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.6955 session high opens the 0.6964 swing high from NY hours
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 64 · price 0.69539
Double bottom at Asian low, break above Asian range high.
Mid-Asia session, price held a double bottom at the 0.6939 asian low and broke the 0.6948 asian high, now 0.6954. That is roughly a 30% retrace of the sell-off from the 0.6987 pce high. The ny pivot at 0.6960, where Wednesday's post-PCE breakdown accelerated, sits just overhead, and AUD's heavy tone after Bullock's dovish tilt has kept rallies shallow.
Support: 0.6948, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6964, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.6948 asian high returns price to the overnight range and negates the breakout
Acceptance above 0.6960 ny pivot opens 0.6964 ny high, near the 50% pce leg fib
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.6939 asian low confirms downtrend continuation
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in Asia · RSI 58 · price 0.69484
Post-PCE lower highs; Asian range 0.6939–0.6949, testing range top.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to 0.6987 was fully rejected. A firm USD and Bullock's dovish tilt drove lower highs into the 0.6942 ny low. Asia has carved a 0.6939–0.6949 range with a double bottom at the asian low, and price is pressing the asian high with the EMA50 flat at the same level.
Support: 0.69455, 0.69421, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69515, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6949 asian high confirms the double bottom and exposes the 0.6951 ny shelf, then the 0.6958 38.2% fib of the post-PCE drop
0.6964 lower high caps the post-PCE structure; only a break above it invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.6945 ema20 returns price to range mid; a close below the 0.6939 asian low resumes the downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.69456
Lower highs since PCE spike rejection; tight Asian range 0.6939–0.6948.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 was rejected and AUD/USD bled lower through NY as Bullock's dovish tilt kept AUD heavy. Late Asia session is holding a tight range between the 0.6939 asian low (tested twice) and the 0.6948 asian high, just under the 0.6951 fib 23.6 of the PCE leg, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6951, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 asian high and 0.6951 fib 23.6 opens the 0.6964 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.6939 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.69478
Lower highs since PCE spike; Asian double bottom at 0.6939 testing range top.
The 12:30 UTC PCE spike to 0.6987 fully reversed, and AUD/USD has printed lower highs since then as the dovish RBA tone outweighed the soft US data. Mid-Asia session, a double bottom at the 0.6939 Asian low is pressing the Asian high at 0.6948. RSI(14) is neutral near 57 and price sits just under EMA50.
Support: 0.69421, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69482, 0.69515, 0.69576
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 Asian high and the 0.6951 NY shelf breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.6958 38.2% fib
A return below the 0.6942 swing low, then the 0.6939 Asian low, voids the double bottom and resumes the downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.69445
Lower highs since the PCE spike high; tight Asian range near the lows.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 in NY hours fully reversed into a chain of lower highs, with AUD heavy on Bullock's dovish tilt. Asia session is compressing in a 9-pip band between the 0.6939 asian low, tested twice, and the 0.6948 asian high. Price is pinned at EMA20, RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR is about 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69481, 0.69515, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence, with the 0.6952 swing high next
Failure to hold the 0.6939 asian low extends the lower-low chain from the PCE spike
The 0.6964 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the PCE spike drop, is the area to watch for rejection on any recovery
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since PCE spike; tight Asian range at lows.
The PCE spike to 0.6987 was a false break above the prior session high. It reversed during NY hours as Bullock's dovish tilt outweighed the soft US data, leaving a chain of lower highs from 0.6964. Mid-Asia session, the pair sits in a compressed 0.6939–0.6948 Asian range below EMA20/50, with the asian low tested twice. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69481, 0.69505, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6939 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6948 asian high and the lower highs line puts the 0.6950 ny shelf, then the 0.6964 lower high, in play
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since post-PCE spike; Asian range tight.
The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 was rejected within an hour. Price has since built a lower-high chain from 0.6964 through the 0.6951 swing high, and Bullock's dovish tilt keeps AUD heavy even with a softer USD. Mid-Asia session, price is pressing the Asian low at 0.6939 inside a 9-pip Asian range, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.69392, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69481, 0.69515, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6939 asian low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 0.6900 psych level the next reference
Close above the 0.6948 asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.6951 swing high is the next cap
Recovery into the 0.6964 lower high would put price back at the 50% of the post-PCE spike fib
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 44 · price 0.6943
Lower highs from the 0.6987 spike; tight Asia range 0.6939–0.6948.
NY's post-PCE spike to 0.6987 was rejected as the USD recovered on firm GDP and ADP, and the sell-off ran into 0.6947 before late NY. The Asia session has printed only a marginal lower low at the 0.6939 session low and is compressing below the 0.6948 asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 44, and ATR is around 3 pips, typical of Asia hours.
Support: 0.6939, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6960, 0.6987
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 asian high breaks the Asia range and brings the 0.6960 prior pivot / 38.2% fib into play
Acceptance below the 0.6939 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6930 round number
Recovery through the 0.6987 pce spike high would negate the downtrend structure
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM (14:00 UTC) in NY hours could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in tight Asia range · RSI 49 · price 0.69448
Lower highs from the 0.6987 spike; 9-pip range 0.6939–0.6948 overnight.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.6987 was fully reversed, and NY ground lower to a 0.6942 ny low as firm US growth and jobs beats lifted USD. Asia swept that to a 0.6939 session low and snapped back, leaving a false break and a flat range capped by the 0.6948 asian high under the lower-highs line. ATR(14) has compressed near 3 pips and the 01:30 UTC Trade Balance/RBA FSR window has not expanded the range so far.
Support: 0.69421, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69481, 0.69515, 0.69637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 asian high and the lower-highs line exposes the 0.6951 ny shelf, then the 0.6964 swing high at the 50% of the selloff fib
Acceptance below the 0.6939 session low negates the false break and extends the lower-low sequence
Challenger Job Cuts 09:30 UTC, then Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC are the next range-expansion catalysts
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 48 · price 0.69466
Post-NY selloff, tight Asia range 0.6939–0.6948 after an overnight low sweep.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike to 0.6987 was rejected, and the NY selloff that followed ran to 0.6942. USD strength on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed the soft PCE. Early Asia session swept the overnight low to 0.6939 and reclaimed it. Price is now coiling below the Asia high at 0.6948 with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR at roughly 3 pips.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6951, 0.6964
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance and RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asia range
M15 close above 0.6951 range top exposes the 0.6964 lower high, near the 38.2% of the NY selloff
Acceptance below the 0.6939 asia low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC are the larger NY session risk
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.69441
Lower highs and lower lows since the US-data spike; tight Asia session coil above 0.6939.
Since the post-US-data spike to 0.6987 faded, the pair has printed a chain of lower highs as AUD stays heavy on the RBA hike-premium unwind. The 00:30 UTC trade balance release briefly broke the ny low to an asian low of 0.6939 before price reclaimed it. Asia session is now coiling under the 0.6948 range top, with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69515, 0.69637
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6939 asian low would turn the trade-balance dip from a false break into a fresh lower low
A close above the 0.6948 range top and the 0.6951 lower high breaks the descending resistance and pauses the downtrend read
The 0.6964 swing high sits at the 50% retracement of the us-data drop; a move back there would be a deeper correction
RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could expand the range; flagged housing or credit stress would add to AUD pressure
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC are the next USD catalysts
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.69427
Lower highs since the NY spike high; tight Asian range at 0.6942–0.6948.
NY rejected the 0.6987 spike high around the US data, and AUD/USD has ground lower since, with the Asia session compressing in a 0.6942–0.6948 band. The Trade Balance bar dipped to a 0.6939 session low and closed back inside, a false break of the 0.6942 prior low. RSI(14) sits near 41 and ATR is about 3 pips, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69421, 0.69392
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69576
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6939 session low turns the false break into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 0.6948 range top breaks the Asian range and puts the fib 38.2 at 0.6958 in view
RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC; any housing or credit stress flags could extend the slide
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC; this is the NY risk that could shift the read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a tight range · RSI 45 · price 0.69447
Lower highs since the post-PCE spike, then a 0.6942–0.6948 band.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.6987 on soft US PCE fully reversed as the US growth beats firmed the dollar. That post-PCE leg ground down to a 0.6942–0.6948 band, where price has sat since late NY hours. In the Asia session, the AU trade balance print briefly dipped price to a release low at 0.6939 before it snapped back above the 0.6942 prior low. RSI(14) is around 45 and ATR is about 2.6 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6939
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6951, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6939 release low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.6948 range top exposes the 23.6% fib of the post-PCE leg near 0.6951, then the 0.6964 swing high
RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the Asian range; housing or credit stress flags fit the dovish RBA repricing already under way
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in tight range at lows · RSI 42 · price 0.69439
Lower highs since post-PCE spike; 7-pip range 0.6942–0.6949 at lows.
The 12:30 UTC spike to 0.6987 on soft US PCE was rejected as the growth beats lifted USD. A lower-high sequence then took price to a 0.6942 swing low by late NY. Price has since compressed into a 0.6942–0.6949 range through early Asia with RSI(14) near 42, and the AU trade data has not yet broken the range top or the swing low.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.6964
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6942 swing low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6940 round number
Close above the 0.6949 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 0.6959, then the 0.6964 lower high
RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the current Asian range
Lower highs from the PCE spike, 6-pip box 0.6942–0.6948 since late NY.
The NY-open PCE spike to 0.6987 met immediate rejection, and the pair slid through 0.6950 to a swing low at 0.6942 as firm US growth data and a dovish RBA read weighed on AUD. Since late NY, price has compressed in a 6-pip box under the 0.6948 range top, with ATR down to about 2.6 pips and RSI flat near 48.
Support: 0.69421
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69637, 0.69874
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the compression either way
An M15 close below the 0.6942 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.6948 range top opens the 38.2% fib of the PCE spike fade near 0.6959, then the 0.6964 lower high
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 49 · price 0.69447
Lower highs since PCE spike; tight 6-pip base 0.6942–0.6948.
The post-PCE spike to 0.6987 met rejection in NY. AUD then slid through the 0.6951 prior base to a 0.6942 swing low as growth beats revived the dollar. Since late NY, price has compressed in a 0.6942–0.6948 range top band into the Asia session open, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR(14) at about 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.69421, 0.6940
Resistance: 0.69485, 0.69515, 0.69594
What it said to watch
AU Trade Balance at 00:30 UTC and the RBA Financial Stability Review at 01:30 UTC could break the compression range
An M15 close below the 0.6942 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6940 round number
A close above the 0.6948 range top and the 0.6951 prior base would put the fib 38.2 at 0.6959 of the PCE leg in play