21:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at 78.6% retracement · RSI 27 · price 0.69451
Lower highs and lower lows since the 9 Sep high; summer rising trendline broken.
A three-week slide from the 9 Sep high at 0.7237 has erased nearly 80% of the June–September rally. Every bounce has printed a lower high, and the rising trendline from the June low gave way on 23 Sep as the post-RBA reversal and fresh US yield highs pushed the pair through 0.70. Price now sits on the 78.6% fib near 0.6945, below a declining EMA(20) and a rolling EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 27 in genuine oversold territory but no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6922, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7005, 0.7045, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the july low at 0.6922 exposes the june low at 0.6865, the base of the summer range
- Recapturing the 0.70 psych level, which aligns with the 61.8% fib at 0.7005, and then the breakdown zone near 0.7045 is needed to interrupt the lower-high sequence
- A daily close above the lower high at 0.7140 breaks the September lower highs line and invalidates the downtrend read
- US NFP on Fri 2 Oct at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and the direction of US yields could materially shift this read
- AU Services and Composite PMI on 4 Oct at 23:00 UTC are a secondary risk for the pair