21:07 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stretched toward oversold · RSI 31 · price 0.69705
Lower highs and lower lows since the Sep 9 high, 0.7000 lost.
The Jun 30 to Sep 9 rally (0.6865 to 0.7237) has been retraced beyond 61.8% in three weeks. Price has printed a lower-high/lower-low chain under a falling trendline and has broken the 0.7000 psych level after the RBA's 'dovish hike' and a soft trimmed-mean CPI, with ~5% US yields adding pressure. Price sits below a falling EMA20 that crossed under the ema50 (~0.7084) this week. RSI near 31 points to a stretched move, and the next reference is the fib 78.6 at 0.6945 ahead of the july low at 0.6913.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6913, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7045, 0.7084
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.7000 psych level and the sep 24 high at 0.7045 would break the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the july low at 0.6913 exposes the june low at 0.6865 and a full retrace of the summer rally
- RSI closing below 30 would mark the first D1 oversold reading of the window
- AU Trade Balance and RBA Financial Stability Review (01 Oct) plus US ISM Manufacturing with Waller (01 Oct 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
- A daily close above the falling trendline and the ema50 near 0.7084 would neutralise the downtrend structure