21:06 UTC
Downtrend since 9 Sep top, first bounce off lows · RSI 30 · price 0.69548
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; 78.6% retrace of Jun–Sep advance tested.
AUDUSD has printed a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the 0.7237 top on 9 Sep. Each rebound has been capped beneath the September trendline, and the pair has now given back roughly 78.6% of the June–September advance. Price sits below both averages, and EMA(50) at 0.7071 has rolled over after a dovish-leaning RBA hike and rising US yields drove a five-session slide. The slide stalled at the 0.6903 swing low, and Friday's NFP miss (29K vs 90K) lifted the pair back above the 78.6% fib near 0.6945. RSI is hovering near 30, its most stretched reading since the late-June base.
Support: 0.6945, 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7071
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 78.6% fib at 0.6945 reopens the 0.6903 swing low, then the june low at 0.6865.
- A close above the 0.7000 round number (61.8% retrace at 0.7007, near the September trendline) would mark the first higher high since the top.
- Above 0.7000, ema20 at 0.7050 and ema50 at 0.7071 are the swing-trend filters.
- US ISM Services (Mon, f/c 55.7) and the AU Services PMI (f/c 51.4) could materially shift this read; crowded AUD short positioning adds squeeze risk into the 0.7000 area.