AUDUSD rallied hard through the NY session Thursday, clearing 0.70150 and printing a week high at 0.70327 as the USD softened after the hawkish-hold FOMC. Price is now consolidating just under that high, holding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI in the low-60s. The recovery has fully erased the CPI-driven slide to the 0.69220 week low earlier in the week.
Support: 0.7015, 0.69937, 0.6922
Resistance: 0.70327
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.70327 week high opens further upside
Failure to hold 0.70150 breakout risks a return toward the weekly open 0.69937
AUDUSD spent midweek offered, printing a two-week low near 0.6920 after the soft June CPI miss, before a sharp NY-session rebound cleared 0.70 as the dollar softened post-FOMC hawkish hold. Price has since climbed to the 0.7030 week high, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) elevated near 67. The 0.70152 breakout level now sits as the nearest reference beneath current spot.
Support: 0.70152, 0.6965, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70327, 0.7025
What it said to watch
Australia PPI (Fri 01:30 GMT) could shift this read
H1 close back below 0.70152 undermines the breakout
AUDUSD rallied through the NY session, clearing the 0.7025 lower-high that had capped the week and printing a fresh week high at 0.7032. The leg followed a softer USD after the Q2 GDP miss (1.5%) and a benign core PCE, with dip-buyers holding a rising sequence of higher lows off the 0.6923 trough. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.7015, 0.6980, 0.6965
Resistance: 0.7032, 0.7025
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above 0.7025 keeps the breakout read intact
H1 close back below 0.7015 opens 0.6980
AU PPI Fri 01:30 UTC and US ISM Monday could shift this read
22:02 UTC
Uptrend, strong momentum · RSI 66 · price 0.70281
Higher highs after range breakout.
AUDUSD rallied hard through the NY session, clearing 0.7000 and the 0.7025 lower-high cap that framed most of the week, and now trades just under the 0.70327 week high. The bounce off Wednesday's 0.6922 low came as softer US data (Q2 GDP and core PCE both missing) unwound part of the hawkish-hold USD bid. Price sits comfortably above rising EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.70152, 0.7000, 0.69834
Resistance: 0.70327
What it said to watch
A close back below 0.70152 breakout would put the range-break read in question
Failure to hold 0.7000 psych reopens the mid-0.6900s range
US ISM Manufacturing Mon and ECI/UoM data could shift the USD leg of this move
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 70 · price 0.70292
Breakout from range, higher highs.
AUDUSD accelerated through the NY session yesterday, breaking above 0.7015 and clearing the 0.7025 context resistance to print a session high near 0.7033. The rebound follows a strong Building Permits beat and a softer USD after the FOMC hawkish hold, with GDP and core PCE undershooting — a reversal from three earlier down-days driven by the June CPI miss. RSI(14) has cycled up toward 70 and price sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 0.7025, 0.7015
Resistance: 0.70327, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7015 negates the breakout read
0.7025 now the pivot — area to watch for a hold or failure
US PPI Fri 01:30 UTC could shift near-term USD tone
21:03 UTC
Recovering, momentum turning up · RSI 69 · price 0.70292
Reversal off two-week low, higher highs into week's end.
AUDUSD staged a sharp recovery through the NY session, clearing the 0.7025 resistance and printing a week high at 0.70326 as the dollar softened after the Fed's hawkish hold and soft GDP/core PCE. The move builds off a double bottom near 0.69219 mid-week, with RSI(14) now elevated and price holding well above EMA20 and the 0.70000 round number. The breakout above 0.7025 neutralises the earlier CPI-driven downside structure.
Support: 0.7015, 0.7000, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70326
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close back below 0.70150 breakout would undermine the recovery read
A clear break of the 0.70326 week high extends the impulse
US ECI and PPI on Friday could reprice the dollar and shift this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 71 · price 0.70316
Higher highs since Wednesday's low, breakout above range cap.
AUDUSD rallied off Wednesday's 0.6922 week low and pushed through the 0.7025 cap during the NY session, ending the run of lower highs the market context flagged. Price now sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) stretched near 71 after the impulse. The 0.7025-0.7000 zone that capped earlier this week is now the pivot area to monitor for a retest.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69745, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70326, 0.7050
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 0.7000 would put the breakout back inside the prior range
Failure to hold 0.69745 breakout base reopens the 0.6922 week low
US ECI and UoM inflation data (Fri) could shift the USD-side read
AUD/USD ripped through the NY session, clearing the 0.7025 resistance that had capped the week's lower-highs and pushing to a 0.70326 session high — a move that runs against the soft-CPI, hawkish-Fed-hold digest bias. Price is stretched above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) into overbought near 71. The 0.7015 breakout shelf is the first area to watch on any pullback.
Support: 0.7015, 0.6965
Resistance: 0.70326, 0.7050
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.70326 opens the path toward the 0.7050 psych level
Failure to hold 0.7015 breakout puts price back inside the prior range
AUD PPI (Fri 01:30 GMT) and US ECI/UoM could reset this read
AUDUSD staged a sharp NY-session recovery off the 0.6920 two-week low, clearing the 0.7000 round number and topping out at 0.70326 as the dollar softened after the Q2 GDP and core PCE misses. Price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pushed into overbought near 71, confirming the leg but leaving stretch. The 0.7025 area that had defined the week's lower highs has now been broken.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69745, 0.69458
Resistance: 0.70326, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7000 would negate the breakout and re-open 0.69745
Sustained hold above 0.70326 opens the path to 0.7050
AUD PPI (Fri 01:30 GMT) and US ECI / UoM inflation expectations could reset this read
19:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum strong · RSI 68 · price 0.70286
Higher lows, fresh week high.
The week's mid-0.6900s base held above the 0.6920 low, and AUDUSD rallied hard through the NY session, breaking the 0.7025 area that had capped a sequence of lower highs — the move accelerated as soft US GDP and cooler core PCE unwound long USD positioning. Price now sits at session highs near 0.7030, above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI stretched into the high 60s. The 0.70152 breakout level is the first pullback reference.
Support: 0.70152, 0.7000, 0.69745
Resistance: 0.70326, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.70152 would put the breakout back in question
Loss of 0.70000 psych reopens the 0.6975 zone
UoM inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could revive USD bid and cap this run
AUDUSD ran through the NY session, clearing the 0.7025 area that had capped a sequence of lower highs all week and posting a fresh week high near 0.7031. The leg followed benign US core PCE and a soft Q2 GDP print that took some steam out of the dollar. Price now sits well above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) stretched into the low-70s.
Support: 0.7015, 0.7000, 0.6965
Resistance: 0.7031, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7015 would negate the breakout and put 0.7000 round number back in focus
Failure to hold above 0.7025 reopens the mid-0.6900s range
AUD PPI (Fri 01:30 GMT) and Fri US ECI/UoM could shift this read
AUDUSD ripped through the 0.6965–0.7025 resistance zone into the NY session, ending the week's sequence of lower highs and printing a fresh week high at 0.70307. The move came on broad USD softness after soft core PCE and a big Q2 GDP miss, overriding the bearish RBA-repricing backdrop. RSI(14) is stretched near 71 and price sits well above EMA20/EMA50 after the impulse off 0.6920.
Support: 0.70152, 0.7000, 0.6965
Resistance: 0.70307
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.70152 puts price back inside the prior range
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the 0.6965 area
US ECI and UoM inflation expectations Fri could reshape the USD-driven move
AUDUSD rallied off the 0.6920 two-week low and cleared the 0.6965 prior cap through the NY session, pushing above 0.7025 to break the week's sequence of lower highs. Soft US GDP and PCE misses undercut the dollar and fuelled the move; RSI(14) is now stretched into overbought as price holds near the 0.7028 session high above both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6965, 0.6920
Resistance: 0.7028, 0.7024
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7025 would frame the move as a false break
0.7000 psych level is first support on any pullback
AUDUSD rallied through the 0.7000 round number and the 0.7025 lower-high cap into the NY session, printing the week high near 0.7028. The leg came as soft US PCE and a Q2 GDP miss knocked the dollar off its post-FOMC highs. RSI(14) has stretched into overbought as price cleared several days of resistance.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6965
Resistance: 0.7028
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7000 would negate the breakout and return price into the week's range
0.7025-0.7028 area to watch for rejection or continuation
Week of lower highs broken by NY breakout above 0.7000.
AUDUSD spent most of the week grinding lower under a series of lower highs, bottoming near 0.6920 as the hawkish-hold FOMC revived USD demand. That sequence broke in the NY session with a sharp impulse through 0.7000, price now printing a week high at 0.70237 with RSI(14) pushed into the high 60s and holding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 0.7025 area is the last cap of the week's lower-high chain — the level that has to give to fully unwind the down-structure.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69745, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70237, 0.7025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.7025 ends the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.7000 reopens the path back toward the 0.6920 weekly low
AUD PPI (Fri 01:30 GMT) and US ECI/UoM later Friday could reshape this read
AUDUSD reclaimed 0.7000 into the NY session, clearing the 0.6965 cap that held rebounds all week as the dollar softened after mixed US GDP/PCE data. The double bottom off the 0.6920 week low has resolved higher, with price now pressing the 0.70237 week high; RSI(14) has pushed near 71 and price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) for the first time since the CPI-driven drop.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6965, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70237, 0.7025
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 0.7025 ends the week's sequence of lower highs
Loss of 0.7000 psych back into the range reopens 0.6965
AUDUSD spent most of the week grinding lower to a two-week low near 0.6920 after Wednesday's soft June CPI cemented the RBA pause case. Buyers stepped in twice around 0.6920 and price ripped through 0.70152 during the NY session as post-FOMC USD softness (GDP miss, soft core PCE) unwound the dollar bid. Price now holds above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI cycling back above 60.
Support: 0.69745, 0.6946, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70152, 0.70237
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.69745 would negate the breakout and re-expose the 0.6920 base
Rejection at 0.70237 keeps the week's lower-high sequence intact
Fri US ECI + UoM inflation expectations and AU PPI could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend reversing, momentum up · RSI 69 · price 0.70036
Two-week low reclaimed, breakout above 0.7000.
AUDUSD opened the week near 0.6990 and slid to a two-week low around 0.6920 midweek as soft June CPI cemented the RBA pause case. A sharp rally through the NY session reversed that, pushing back above the 0.7000 psych level to a week high of 0.70237 as post-FOMC USD softness took hold. Price now consolidates just above 0.7000 with RSI(14) elevated near 69 after the impulse.
Support: 0.7000, 0.69745, 0.69219
Resistance: 0.70237, 0.7025
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7000 negates the breakout into the prior range
Sustained trade above 0.70250 extends the recovery
US ECI and UoM inflation expectations Fri could shift the USD leg
AUDUSD opened the week near 0.6977 and sold off after Wednesday's soft CPI drove it to a two-week low around 0.6920, printing a double bottom. A sharp NY-session impulse then reclaimed 0.7000 and pushed toward the 0.7025 resistance, aided by the post-FOMC USD fade; RSI(14) has surged with price extended well above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6970, 0.6920
Resistance: 0.7025, 0.7050
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.7000 would negate the breakout and re-open 0.6970
0.7025 — area to watch for rejection or continuation, lower-high sequence still capping
AU PPI Fri 01:30 UTC and BoJ decision could shift this read
AUD/USD slid from the 0.7010 week high to a 0.6920 two-week low after Wednesday's soft June CPI cemented the RBA pause, then based twice near 0.6920 and recovered through the NY session back above EMA20. The 0.6984 recent high has capped the rebound, with price now pulling back to 0.6975. RSI(14) has lifted off its lows and is cycling mid-range as the recovery holds.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.7010, 0.7025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6984 recent high opens the path toward the 0.7010 week high
Failure to hold the 0.6920 two-week low confirms a lower-low toward 0.6900 200-DMA
AU PPI Fri 01:30 UTC could shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 57 · price 0.69753
Lower highs this week, bounce from 2wk low.
Softer June/Q2 CPI drove AUDUSD from ~0.7000 to a two-week low near 0.6923 midweek, printing a sequence of lower highs. Price has since clawed back through EMA(20) into the NY session, tagging 0.6984 before easing to 0.6975. The day high at 0.6984 is the immediate cap; 0.7000 round number sits above.
Support: 0.6923, 0.6946, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.7000, 0.7025
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6923 confirms a lower low, exposing 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim of 0.7000 round number opens the path to 0.7025 resistance
US Core PCE / GDP prints could materially shift the USD leg this session
AUD/USD is recovering off the 0.6922 week low into the NY session, reclaiming EMA(20) and EMA(50) after soft AU CPI drove the two-week slide from the 0.7011 week high. RSI(14) has pushed back above 60 as the bounce breaks the week's run of lower highs. The 0.6984 session high is capping the move, with the 0.7011 week high the next resistance above.
Support: 0.6965, 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.70108, 0.7025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6984 opens the path back toward the 0.7011 week high
Failure to hold 0.6965 prior range risks a retest of the 0.6922 week low
US GDP / Core PCE data cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 63 · price 0.69816
Lower highs into 0.6920, higher lows forming since.
AUD/USD sold from Monday's 0.70108 weekly high to a two-week low at 0.6920 after Wednesday's soft June CPI miss cemented the RBA pause. Price has since carved higher lows off that base, reclaiming EMA20 and pressing the 0.6988 spike high into the NY session with RSI back near 63. The dominant weekly structure is still a sequence of lower highs, so this is a recovery within a broader downtrend.
Support: 0.6950, 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.70108
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.6988 spike high keeps the weekly downtrend intact
H1 close above the 0.70108 weekly high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.6920 two-week low opens the 0.6900 200-dma
US GDP / core PCE cluster could shift the USD leg of this pair
AUDUSD spent the week grinding lower after Wednesday's soft June CPI cemented the RBA pause, printing a two-week low near 0.6922 before demand stepped in through the recent NY session. The bounce has reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off the mid-40s into the high-50s. The 0.6984 pop high — where an earlier spike was rejected — caps the recovery, with 0.7000 the next psychological hurdle.
Support: 0.6946, 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
US Q2 GDP / Core PCE cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above 0.6984 opens the path back toward 0.7000
Failure to hold 0.6946 re-exposes the 0.6922 two-week low
AUDUSD opened the week near 0.6990 and trended lower after soft June/Q2 CPI cemented the RBA pause, printing a two-week low at 0.6920. Price has since clawed back to 0.6977, reclaiming EMA20 as RSI(14) cycles up off the lows. The 0.69838 spike high capped one push and the descending sequence of lower highs from 0.70108 still frames the week.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.70000 weekly open invalidates the lower-highs read
Failure to hold 0.6949 swing low reopens the 0.6920 two-week low
US GDP / Core PCE cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has been on the back foot since Monday, three down-days driven by the soft June CPI print that cut RBA hike odds, with a firm USD post a hawkish 9-3 Fed hold. Price carved a double bottom near 0.6920 (the week low) and has since recovered through the 0.6965 pivot into the NY session, reclaiming EMA20 as RSI(14) turns back up from oversold. The 0.6984 spike high is the near-term cap; the broader sequence of lower highs remains intact.
Support: 0.6948, 0.6922, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.7011
What it said to watch
US Q2 GDP / core-PCE cluster at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 0.6984 needed for the bounce to extend toward the 0.7011 week high
H1 close below 0.6920 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6900 200-dma
AUD/USD has printed three straight down-days since the soft June CPI miss cut RBA hike bets, carving a clean sequence of lower highs from 0.7010 into Wednesday's 0.6920 week low. A sharp spike to 0.6985 during the prior NY session was rejected and fully reversed, a false break that kept the downtrend intact; price has since based and reclaimed the 0.6965 pivot, lifting back above EMA20 with RSI cycling out of the lows near 58. The recovery is corrective within the broader down-leg while 0.6985 caps.
Support: 0.6965, 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6985, 0.7025
What it said to watch
US Q2 GDP / core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~175min) is the dominant near-term risk for this read
H1 close above 0.6985 would break the week's lower-high sequence
Loss of 0.6965 pivot re-exposes the 0.6920 week low and 0.6900 200-dma
AUDUSD has trended lower since mid-week, pressured by the soft Australian CPI miss that cut RBA hike bets against a firmer USD. The pair marked a two-week low near 0.69235 before an aggressive spike to 0.69838 was rejected within a single hour, and price has since settled back into the mid-0.695s. Sitting on EMA(20) but capped under EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering to the 50 area after the wash-out.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838
What it said to watch
US Q2 GDP and Core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Close above the 0.69838 spike high would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 0.69235 opens the 0.6900 psych level
AUD/USD has trended lower since Monday after the soft Australian CPI miss and a hawkish-composition Fed hold revived USD demand, printing a two-week low near 0.6923. Price (0.69599) has since stabilized in the mid-0.695s, holding above the 0.6946 swing low with RSI(14) recovering toward 50. A spike to 0.6984 was rejected, keeping the lower-highs sequence intact; price sits back above EMA20 but capped under EMA50.
Support: 0.6946, 0.6923, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6984 invalidates the lower-highs read
Failure to hold 0.6946 reopens the path toward 0.6923 and 0.6900
US GDP / Core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h out) could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has trended lower since Monday's open, the soft Q2 CPI print and hawkish Fed hold driving the pair from the 0.7011 week high down to a 0.6922 low. A sharp intraday spike to 0.6984 was fully rejected within the hour, leaving price consolidating mid-0.6950s below both EMAs and capped by a descending line of lower highs. The 0.6900 200-DMA remains the key downside pivot with US Core PCE due at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 0.6922, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6984, 0.7011
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6900 200-dma opens fresh downside
Reclaim of 0.6984 spike high relieves the lower-highs structure
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has been offered since midweek after the soft Q2 CPI print and a hawkish Fed hold, sliding from the 0.7010 week high to a 0.6923 low. A sharp spike to 0.6984 was immediately rejected back into the mid-0.6900s, leaving price pinned below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) hovering in the mid-40s. The market is now consolidating around 0.6950 with supply capping every push toward 0.6960.
Support: 0.6947, 0.6923, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6984, 0.7010
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6923 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim of 0.6984 would relieve the lower-highs structure
US Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AUD/USD has trended lower all week, with the Q2 CPI undershoot (3.8% vs 4%) gutting RBA hike bets and a firm post-FOMC USD extending the slide from the 0.70108 week high toward a 0.69219 low. A brief spike to 0.69838 was immediately faded and price is now consolidating around 0.6955, below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI holding mid-40s. Supply has capped every attempt above 0.6965 since the drop.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.69838, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.69219 confirms a lower low and opens the 0.6900 200-dma
US Core PCE + GDP in ~6h could validate or fade the USD strength driving this
Reclaim of 0.69838 needed to challenge the run of lower highs
AUDUSD has trended lower since Monday, printing a clean run of lower highs after Wednesday's Q2 CPI undershoot cemented an RBA pause and kept the Aussie the weakest major. The NY-session spike to 0.69838 on Wednesday was rejected inside the hour and price slid back toward the 0.69219 weekly low. Trade is holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-40s, keeping the offered tone in place.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838
What it said to watch
US Core PCE + GDP in ~6h could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.69219 confirms a lower low and opens 0.6900
Reclaim of 0.69838 breaks the run of lower highs
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 0.69495
Series of lower highs and lower lows.
AUDUSD has ground out lower highs and lower lows since Monday after the soft Q2 CPI miss and the Fed's hawkish 9-3 hold pinned the Aussie. The FOMC spike to 0.69838 was fully retraced within the hour, leaving a false break and price back below both EMAs near 0.695. Week low at 0.69219 remains the pivot, with 0.6900 (200-DMA) the deeper line noted in the digest.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6964
What it said to watch
US Core PCE / GDP cluster in ~7h could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.69219 confirms continuation toward 0.6900
Reclaim of 0.69640 would break the lower-highs sequence
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, near two-week lows · RSI 44 · price 0.69495
Lower highs, lower lows.
AUDUSD has trended lower all week after Tuesday's soft Q2 CPI miss (3.8% vs 4%) gutted RBA August hike odds, with the pair rolling off the 0.7010 week high toward the 0.69235 week low. A sharp spike to 0.69838 into the NY session was rejected and fully unwound, leaving price pinned back near the EMA20 around 0.6950. Momentum stays soft with RSI(14) mid-40s and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.69235 confirms a lower low and opens the 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim above 0.69838 needed to challenge the lower-highs sequence
US Core PCE / GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT (~6h) could materially shift this read
AUD/USD has trended lower all week, with the soft Q2 CPI miss and a hawkish Fed hold driving the break below 0.6950 and a fresh two-week low at 0.69219. Price sits under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s; a sharp NY spike to 0.69838 yesterday was fully rejected, keeping the lower-highs sequence intact. The 0.6965 zone caps the current bounce while 0.6900 (200-DMA) marks the deeper line.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.69838
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6965 challenges the lower-highs read
Failure to hold 0.69219 opens the path toward 0.6900
US Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 GMT is the next USD catalyst and could shift this read
AUDUSD has trended lower since midweek, the soft Q2 CPI miss driving the leg down toward 0.6923 before a hawkish Fed hold kept the Aussie pinned. A sharp NY-session spike to 0.6984 was fully retraced within the hour — a false break that rolled price back below EMA(20). RSI(14) sits mid-40s with price probing the 0.6960 area from below.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69838
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6923 opens the path toward the 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim of 0.6960 needed to challenge the lower-highs sequence
US Core PCE / GDP cluster at 12:30 GMT is the next USD catalyst
AUDUSD has trended lower all week, with the soft Q2 CPI print driving the leg down from the 0.7010 area to a 0.69219 weekly low. Yesterday's FOMC-hold spike to 0.69882 was sold off within two bars, leaving a fresh lower high, and price has since consolidated back around 0.6950 into month-end. RSI(14) is holding mid-40s and price is pinned to a flattening EMA(20), with EMA(50) capping above.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.69882, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.69650 lower-high breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold 0.69219 confirms continuation toward the 0.6900 200-DMA
US Core PCE/GDP cluster today (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
AUD was the weakest major after the soft Q2 CPI miss (3.8% vs 4%), dragging AUDUSD to a two-week low near 0.6923 before a shallow bounce. Price is trading below EMA20 and EMA50 with lower highs intact — the sharp spike to 0.6988 mid-session was rejected straight back. 0.6900 (200-DMA) is the line in the sand still holding.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6923 opens the 0.6900 200-dma test
Reclaim of 0.6970-0.7000 needed to break the lower-highs sequence
US Core PCE / GDP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 45 · price 0.69545
Lower highs since 0.7010, basing above week low.
AUDUSD extended lower after the soft Q2 CPI miss cemented an RBA pause, printing a two-week low at 0.6922 before a sharp spike to 0.6988 was rejected and faded back to 0.6954. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with a chain of lower highs since the 0.7010 weekly high. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s after basing off the CPI-driven drop, with 0.6984 capping the recovery attempt.
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69651, 0.69882, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6922 confirms a lower-low, exposing the 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim of 0.6984 negates the rejection and reopens 0.7010
US Core PCE at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has trended lower since Tuesday's session after the soft Q2 CPI print cemented an RBA pause, printing a two-week low near 0.6923 before a sharp intraday spike to 0.6988 was rejected straight back to 0.6950. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling in the low-40s, and buyers have twice defended the 0.6923 area. The 0.6970-0.7000 shelf has capped every attempt this week.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69651, 0.69882, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US Core PCE + Q2 GDP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.6923 opens the 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim of 0.6970 would challenge the lower-highs sequence
AUD/USD carved a sequence of lower highs since Monday's peak near 0.7011, the drop accelerating after yesterday's soft June CPI print gutted RBA hike odds and dragged price to a 0.6922 week low. NY hours saw a sharp spike to 0.6984 that was fully rejected back to 0.6948, and price has since coiled around 0.6960 into the Asia session. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-40s off oversold, but structure remains capped below EMA(50).
Support: 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.7000, 0.70108
What it said to watch
US Core PCE / GDP batch 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 0.6922 opens the 0.6900 200-dma
Reclaim of 0.6984 needed to challenge the lower-high sequence
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 47 · price 0.69602
Sequence of lower highs, week low at 0.6922.
AUDUSD has trended lower all week, the weakest G10 major after the Q2 CPI undershoot cemented an RBA pause; a sequence of lower highs capped the tape from Monday's 0.7011 down to the 0.6922 week low. Wednesday's NY session printed a sharp spike to 0.6984 that was immediately faded back to 0.6948 — a false break that left supply at that level intact. Price has since stabilised near 0.6960, reclaiming EMA(20) but holding below EMA(50).
Support: 0.6934, 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.70108
What it said to watch
US Core PCE/GDP cluster Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.6984 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 0.6934 reopens the 0.6922 week low and 0.6900 200-dma
AUDUSD has been the week's laggard, grinding out lower highs from the 0.7010 high after Tuesday's Q2 CPI undershoot gutted August RBA hike odds. A sharp spike to 0.6984 during yesterday's session was immediately rejected back to the 0.6923 week low before buyers stepped in, lifting price back above the reclaimed EMA20 into 0.6960. Structure stays bearish beneath the 0.6984 lower-high while price holds above the week low.
Support: 0.69235, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.6984 negates the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 0.69235 confirms a fresh lower low toward the 0.6900 200-dma
AUD Building Permits 01:30 GMT could move this read
AUDUSD has trended lower all week, printing lower highs off 0.70108 after the soft Q2 CPI miss gutted August RBA hike odds. Wednesday's NY session produced a sharp spike to 0.69838 that was immediately sold back to 0.69476 — a false break that left the week low at 0.69219 intact. Price has since recovered to 0.696, holding just above EMA(20) but capped below EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering from oversold toward the mid-40s.
Support: 0.6946, 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838, 0.7005, 0.70108
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.69838 challenges the lower-highs structure
Break and hold below 0.6900 200-dma opens a deeper leg lower
Building Permits (Thu 01:30 GMT) and Fri PPI could re-arm the downside
US Core PCE cluster Thu 12:30 GMT could shift the USD leg of the read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 51 · price 0.69602
Lower highs since Monday, defending week low.
AUDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Monday's open after Q2 CPI undershot and gutted August RBA hike odds, sliding to a week low at 0.69219. The NY spike to 0.69838 was rejected hard back below 0.6960 — a false break that failed to hold. Price is now recovering off the lows near the 50% retrace of the weekly leg down, capped below the 0.69838 supply.
Support: 0.6950, 0.69219, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69838
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.69838 negates the false-break rejection
Break and hold below 0.6900 removes 200-dma support and extends the lower-high sequence
AU Building Permits Thu 01:30 GMT could shift the intraday read