Lower highs from 84348 against rising lows from 83347, tightening range late NY.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to the 85,486 pce spike high. It fully reversed to an 83,212 post-PCE low within the hour, and the rebound was rejected at 84,348, a lower high sitting on the 50% fib. Since then price has compressed between the 83,347 swing low and an 83,753 range top into the Asia open, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,753 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 84,348
Reclaim of the 84,348 lower high (50% fib) puts the 85,486 pce spike high back in view
Loss of the 83,347 swing low exposes the 83,212 post-PCE low, then the 82,922 Asia low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC Thu is the next catalyst that could reset this range
23:32 UTC
Post-PCE fade, flattening into range · RSI 53 · price 83,585.95
Lower highs from 84348, compressed late-NY range 83380–83754.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to the 85486 pce high, which fully reversed to 83212 within two hours. The bounce stalled at the 84348 rebound high, the 50% retracement of that spike, and NY hours then printed lower highs down to the 83347 ny low. Late NY has compressed into an 83380–83754 range, with price mid-range below both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 83,347.00, 83,212.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,754.00, 84,348.00, 85,486.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83754 range high breaks the late-NY compression and puts the 84348 rebound high back in view
Failure to hold the 83347 ny low exposes the 83212 post-pce low, then the 82922 asia low
Only acceptance above 84348 reopens the 85486 pce high
Asia open is imminent; Thu jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84348, compressing in 83494–83754 range.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to the 85486 pce high, which fully reversed into the 83212 post-pce low within two hours. Lower highs since the 84348 swing high have compressed price into an 83494–83754 range at the Asia open. Price sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels of the pce spike fib, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 83,494.05, 83,347.21, 83,212.36
Resistance: 83,753.76, 84,348.11, 85,485.86
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83754 range high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the compression read
Failure at the 83494 range low exposes the 83347 evening low, then the 83212 post-pce low
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib near 83900 would reopen the 84348 swing high
Thu 14:00 UTC ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
23:06 UTC
Range after failed post-PCE spike · RSI 45 · price 83,600.93
Compression: lower highs from 84348, higher lows from 83347.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC lifted price through the London high at 83933 to 85486. The move fully reversed within two hours as strong growth data absorbed it, putting in a post-pce low at 83212. Since the 84348 swing high, price has set lower highs and higher lows, compressing into a 83494–83754 band into early Asia session, with RSI(14) near 45 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 83,494.05, 83,347.21, 83,212.36
Resistance: 83,753.76, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83754 session high and the falling resistance line breaks the compression and brings the 83933 london high back into view
Failure to hold the 83494 swing low and the rising support line exposes the 83347 ny low, then the 83212 post-pce low
Recovery through the 84348 swing high would negate the lower-high sequence
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid vs 72.3 (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:48 UTC
Post-PCE reversal, now flat to slightly rising · RSI 56 · price 83,728.79
Tight post-NY range, rising lows under an 83,805 cap.
The soft core PCE print drove a 12:30 UTC spike to the 85,486 pce spike high. It fully reversed within an hour, a false break of the ~83,930 pre-release highs, and was followed by a 84,348 lower high and a late-ny low at 83,347 during NY hours. After the NY close, price is building rising lows off 83,347 beneath the 83,805 intraday cap, sitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the london low–pce high move, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,805 intraday cap breaks the post-NY range and brings the 84,348 lower high back into play
Failure to hold the 83,454 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 83,347 late-ny low and the 83,212 pce low
Only a recovery through 84,348 puts the 85,486 pce spike high back in view; below it the post-release structure stays capped
Thu jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid (14:00 UTC, f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
Post-PCE spike fully rejected; higher lows since 83,347 pressing the 23.6% fib.
The soft core PCE spike to 85,486 at the NY open was fully reversed. It printed a false break of the 83,934 pre-PCE high and a post-PCE low at 83,212, and the later bounce stalled at the 50% fib at 84,348. Since the 83,347 higher low, a chain of higher lows into early Asia has price pressing the 23.6% fib at 83,749, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 23.6% fib at 83,749 opens the 83,934 pre-PCE high, then the 50% fib at 84,348
Loss of the 83,494 swing low breaks the higher-lows line; below the 83,347 higher low, the 83,212 post-PCE low is exposed
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84348, compressing 83347–83726 into late NY.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC to 85486, but the move fully reversed to the post-PCE low at 83212 within two hours, and the rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 84348. Lower highs since then, including the 83845 lower high, have left price compressing between the 83347 swing low and the 83726 range top, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44 and a higher low printed at 83494.
Support: 83,494.05, 83,347.21, 83,212.36
Resistance: 83,725.80, 83,844.66, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83726 range top opens the path to the 83845 lower high
Loss of the 83494 higher low puts the 83347 swing low and the 83212 post-pce low back in play
Break of the higher-low trendline from 83347 ends the late-NY compression
Thu ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (14:00 UTC, f/c 55 / 72.3) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84348 squeezing into 83347–83725 range.
The soft core PCE print drove a spike to 85486 at 12:30 UTC. That spike was fully rejected in the first hour of NY, and the rebound stalled at the 50% fib of the post-PCE move near 84348. A lower-high trendline has since compressed price into a 83347–83725 range just under EMA20 as the Asia session approaches.
Support: 83,347.21, 83,212.36
Resistance: 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83725 range top and the lower-high trendline breaks the compression, with the 83844 lower high next
Failure to hold the 83347 swing low exposes the 83212 post-PCE low
Kashkari speaking at 22:00 UTC; any USD or yield reaction could shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC is the next major volatility risk
Lower highs from 84,348 against higher lows from 83,212.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a false break above the London high at 83,934 to 85,486. The move fully reversed to the pce low at 83,212 within two hours. Through NY hours price has coiled between a lower high at 83,726 and a swing low at 83,347, sitting below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44 as the session winds down.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,726 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 83,934 london high back in view; the 84,348 rebound high caps above that
Failure to hold the 83,347 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 83,212 pce low
Loss of 83,212 reopens the 82,922 session low from the early-London trough
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, into the Asia session, could break the current compression
Post-PCE spike fully reversed; tight box under a lower-high line.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC to 85,486, but the move fully reversed to a post-PCE low at 83,212. The rebound stalled at the 84,348 rebound high, which sits on the 50% level of the PCE spike fib. Late in the NY session, a lower-high sequence (84,348 then 83,804) has compressed price between the 83,347 swing low and the 83,707 minor high, with RSI(14) near 46 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,804 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 84,348 rebound high
Failure to hold the 83,347 swing low reopens the 83,212 post-PCE low
Acceptance above the 83,707 minor high ends the current compression box
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift this read; Thursday's ISM Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 72.3) is the next macro test
21:17 UTC
Intraday lower highs since the post-PCE spike, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 83,632.90
Lower-high sequence from 84348, basing above 83347 in late NY.
The soft core PCE at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to the 85486 pce high that fully reversed to the 83212 post-pce low. The rebound stalled at the 50% retrace near 84348, and NY hours printed lower highs down to the 83347 ny low. Late NY is basing above that level with RSI(14) near 42, and price is nudging the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 83,347.00, 83,212.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,804.00, 84,348.00, 85,486.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83804 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 83347 ny low reopens the 83212 post-pce low; below that sits the 82922 asia low
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift the read into the Asia session
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC Thu is the next major volatility event
21:09 UTC
Post-PCE spike fully reversed, lower highs since 16:15 UTC · RSI 43 · price 83,601.93
Descending highs from 84348, basing above 83347 swing low inside Asian range.
The 12:30 UTC soft-PCE/strong-GDP release spiked BTC to 85486, then fully reversed. The post-PCE low at 83212 held, but the rebound high at 84348 has since given way to a string of lower highs through NY hours. Late NY finds price back inside the Asian range, basing above the 83347 swing low between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the rebound fib, with the Asian high at 83679 just overhead and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 83,347.21, 83,212.36
Resistance: 83,678.85, 83,803.71, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83804 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 83347 swing low exposes the 83212 post-pce low and a full retrace of the rebound fib
Asian high at 83679 is the first cap; repeated rejection there keeps price inside the range
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC; tone on soft PCE vs strong growth could shift USD and this read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled volatility risk
20:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 16:45 UTC · RSI 37 · price 83,561.98
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to 85486 above the pre-data 83930 range top. That move had fully unwound by 14:30 UTC, and the recovery stalled at the 50% fib near 84348. Late in the NY session, price is pressing a descending lower-highs trendline just above the 83347 swing low, with RSI(14) near 37 and EMAs overhead.
Support: 83,347.21, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,623.91, 83,803.71, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83624 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 83804 lower high is the next reference
Failure to hold the 83347 swing low exposes the 83212 post-PCE low, then the 82922 day low
Recovery back to the 84348 fib 50% would neutralise the post-spike downtrend read
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84348, holding above 83347 swing low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike to 85486 that fully reversed to the 83212 pce low within two hours, a false break of the 83933 pre-pce high. Since the 84348 swing high, NY session has printed lower highs down to 83804. The 83347 swing low is holding into late NY, with price roughly 70% back through the 83212–84348 bounce fib.
Support: 83,347.21, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,803.71, 84,348.11
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83347 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83212 pce low
Break of 83212 exposes the 82922 session low set near London open
Close above the 83804 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 84348 swing high sits above
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC and ISM Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84,348 NY bounce high.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC lifted BTC through the London high to the 85,486 pce high. NY hours then reversed the whole spike into the 83,212 pce low, and the bounce stalled exactly at the 50% fib (84,348). Since then a falling trendline of lower highs has pushed price into the late NY session, with 83,347 marking the ny low and RSI(14) near 40.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,804 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 83,347 ny low and 83,212 pce low exposes the 82,922 day low from the London open
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC; a dovish read on the PCE miss could lift BTC off the lows into Asia
Recovery through the 50% fib at 84,348 would put the pce high back in focus
Post-PCE spike fully unwound; lower highs and lower lows through NY.
The soft core PCE print lifted BTC to 85,486, but the spike fully unwound during NY hours. Price now sits on the 78.6% fib of the 82,922–85,486 move near 83,470. Since the 84,348 swing high the session has printed lower highs along a descending trendline, with a fresh swing low at 83,347 and RSI(14) near 29.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83,804 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 83,347 swing low exposes the 83,212 pce low, then the 82,922 asia low
Only a recovery of the 83,933 pre-pce high negates the false break of the release spike
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) remarks could materially shift this read into the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84,348 rebound high, late NY session.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss drove a spike to 85,486 that fully reversed to the 83,212 post-PCE low within two hours, a false break of the London high. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib (84,348), and late NY has printed lower highs down to the 83,804 lower high, with price now below EMA20/50 and just above the 83,454 swing low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,454 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 83,212 post-PCE low
M15 close above the 83,804 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Reclaim of the 84,348 50% fib would negate the post-spike rejection read
Fed's Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84348 bounce high.
The 12:30 UTC PCE miss drove a spike to the 85486 spike high that fully reversed to the 83212 post-PCE low. The NY bounce was rejected at the fib 50% near 84348, and price has since printed lower highs into the 83454 session low late in NY hours, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 83,454.09, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,844.66, 84,348.11, 85,485.86
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83845 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence since the fib 50% rejection
Failure to hold the 83454 session low exposes the 83212 post-PCE low, then the 82922 Asian low
Only a recovery through 84348 reopens the path toward the 85486 spike high
Fed's Cook (under way since 19:25 UTC), Goolsbee at 20:05 and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift this read via USD and yields
19:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 15:15 UTC · RSI 39 · price 83,574.96
Post-PCE spike fully reversed; lower-high/lower-low chain from 84,348.
The soft core PCE at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC above the 83,933 pre-release high to 85,486. The move fully reversed to the 83,212 pce low within two hours, and the rebound stalled at the 50% post-PCE fib near the 84,348 rebound high. A lower-high chain since then has pushed price back to 83,575 after London close, pressing the 83,519 swing low with RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
A close below the 83,519 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 83,212 pce low
A close above the 83,845 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Loss of 83,212 exposes the 82,922 asian low, the window's floor
A reclaim of the 84,348 rebound high, the 50% post-PCE fib, would be needed to challenge the reversal
Fed speakers Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next bars
19:06 UTC
Post-data reversal, lower highs through NY hours · RSI 43 · price 83,765.75
Spike above London high failed; rebound capped at 50% fib, lower-high/lower-low chain since 16:15 UTC.
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC pushed BTC through the 83,933 London high to a 85,486 spike high. The move then fully reversed to an 83,212 data low. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib near 84,348, and NY hours have printed lower highs down to the 83,650 swing low. RSI(14) is near 43, below both EMAs, and ATR is around $225 a bar.
What it said to watch
Close below the 83,650 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 83,212 data low, then the 82,921 day low
Reclaim of the 83,940 prior high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 50% fib at 84,348 is the next cap below the 85,486 spike high
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift USD and yields and move this read
Lower-high chain off 84348 bounce high, price between 50% and 61.8% fib.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a spike through the 83930 pre-pce high to the 85486 spike high. That move fully unwound to the 83212 pce low in the first hour of NY. The rebound stalled at the 84348 bounce high, and late NY has printed a string of lower highs back to the 83667 late ny low. That low sits just above the 61.8% level of the pce bounce fib, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 83,667.00, 83,212.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,930.00, 84,348.00, 85,486.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83667 late ny low and 61.8% fib extends the lower-high chain toward the 83212 pce low
Reclaim of the 83930 pre-pce high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 84348 bounce high
A break of the rising low trendline from the 82922 day low would undo the London-session higher-low structure
Fed speakers Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
Range 83,212–84,348 in late NY, lower high at the 84,348 bounce high.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC lifted BTC through the London high to a pce spike at 85,486. Growth beats then revived USD, and the move fully reversed to a post-data low of 83,212 by 14:30 UTC. The recovery stalled at the 84,348 bounce high, and price now sits at 83,840, near the 44% level of the bounce fib, just above the 83,774 pullback low and under the 84,000 round number.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,774 pullback low exposes the 83,519 higher low
Loss of the 83,212 post-data low extends the reversal of the PCE rally
Reclaim of the 84,000 round number and a break of the 84,348 bounce high negates the lower-high read
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 84348 after 85486 spike; higher low at 83774.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked BTC from the pre-PCE high near 83934 to 85486. The move was fully rejected once the strong growth data firmed the USD, and price found a post-PCE low at 83212. A NY session rebound stalled at a lower high of 84348, and the pullback held a higher low at 83774 near the 50% rebound fib. After London close, price is retesting 83934 with EMA20 overhead.
Support: 83,774.00, 83,212.00
Resistance: 83,934.00, 84,348.00, 85,486.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 84348 lower high re-opens the upper half of the post-PCE range toward the 85486 PCE high
Loss of the 83774 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 83212 post-PCE low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
ATR(14) near $290 per bar, elevated after PCE; 83934 pre-pce high is the immediate pivot
False break to 85,486 reversed; lower high 84,348, price back at pre-PCE high.
The 12:30 UTC soft PCE print spiked BTC to a 85,486 spike high. It then round-tripped to the 83,212 PCE low as the USD bid returned on the growth beats. The rebound stalled at a 84,348 lower high, and late in NY hours price sits just under the 83,934 pre-PCE high, holding the 83,774 swing low between the 38.2% and 50% of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) at 45 and price under EMA20 but on EMA50.
What it said to watch
Close below the 83,774 swing low exposes the 83,519 higher low and 61.8% of the rebound fib
Acceptance back above the 83,934 pre-PCE high reopens the 84,348 lower high; the 85,486 spike high stays the post-data cap
Loss of the 83,212 PCE low would complete a full reversal of the post-PCE move
Fed Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 UTC could shift USD and this read
PCE spike fully reversed; higher lows off 83,212, capped at the 50% fib.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss drove a spike to the 85,486 spike high, but it fully reversed into NY open and bottomed at the 83,212 post-PCE low. Since then, higher lows have lifted price to the 84,348 swing high, the 50% fib, and it is now sitting on rising support above the 83,872 swing low after London close. RSI(14) is near 47, mid-range.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,872 swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 83,519 higher low, then the post-PCE low at 83,212
Close above the 84,348 swing high (50% fib) opens the 61.8% fib at 84,617, with the 85,486 spike high above
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 84348 after a full reversal of the PCE spike.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss drove a spike to the 85,486 PCE spike high. It fully reversed to the 83,212 post-PCE low as growth beats revived the USD bid. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib by the 84,348 rebound high, and after London close price is printing lower highs into the 84,071 micro low at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 52.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,071 micro low opens the 83,519 higher low
M15 close above the 84,348 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib at 84,617, with the PCE spike high at 85,486 beyond
Failure to hold the 83,212 post-PCE low negates the rebound structure
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
PCE spike fully rejected; higher lows off 83212 pausing at 50% fib.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss lifted price out of the 83700–83930 London range to the pce spike hi at 85486. The move was fully rejected as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, and price flushed to the pce low at 83212. The NY-session recovery has since printed rising lows and is stalling at the 50% fib near 84348, with the swing low at 84071 and the London high at 83933 below.
Support: 84,071.41, 83,212.36
Resistance: 84,348.11, 84,567.87, 85,485.86
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84348 (50% fib) exposes the 84568 lower high and the 61.8% fib near 84617.
A break of the 84071 swing low and the rising lows line puts the London high at 83933 back in play.
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the post-PCE read; the 83212 pce low is the downside reference.
Post-PCE spike fully reversed; NY session building HL chain, stalling at 50% fib.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss sent BTC to a spike high at 85,486, but it was rejected in full to a post-data low at 83,212 as the USD firmed on the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats. The NY session has since built higher lows along a rising trendline, pausing at the 50% fib near 84,348. Price sits above the pullback low at 84,071 and the London high at 83,933, with RSI(14) near 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,348 50% fib opens the 61.8% at 84,617 and the 85,000 psych level
Break of the 84,071 pullback low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence, with the London high at 83,933 next
Loss of the 83,212 post-data low puts the full post-PCE reversal back in play
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could shift the USD read. ISM Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC is the next major risk
HH/HL chain off the 83,212 data low, capped at the 50% fib.
The 12:30 UTC US data dump (core PCE miss, growth beats) spiked BTC from 83,840 to 85,486, then fully reversed to the 83,212 data low in NY hours, a false break of the London high near 83,934. A higher-low chain since then has lifted price to the 50% fib of the post-data drop at 84,348. The 16:15 bar printed a rejection wick there, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 84,348 opens the path to the 61.8% fib at 84,617, then the 85,486 spike high
Loss of the 83,981 higher low breaks the recovery HH/HL chain and exposes the 83,519 swing low
A break of the 83,212 data low negates the post-data recovery
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 83210, capped below the PCE-spike lower high.
The 12:30 UTC PCE miss pushed price out of the London range, from the 83930 range top to 85486. That move was rejected and fully unwound by 14:15 UTC into an 83210 post-PCE low. NY hours have since carved a higher low at 83520 along a rising trendline to the 84240 rebound high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the reversal. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and ATR has expanded to roughly 35,000 pips.
Support: 83,930.00, 83,520.00, 83,210.00
Resistance: 84,240.00, 84,350.00, 84,570.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 50% fib at 84350 and the 84570 lower high would reclaim most of the PCE spike
Stalling at the 84240 rebound high keeps the recovery a retracement inside the post-PCE reversal
A break of the rising trendline and the 83930 range top returns price to the pre-release range, exposing the 83520 higher low
Loss of the 83210 post-PCE low turns the release into a full failed breakout
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 83212, pressing prior london high.
At 12:30 UTC the PCE miss and growth beats spiked BTC from the 83934 london high to the 85486 spike high. The move fully reversed to the 83212 data low within two hours, a false break of the London range. The NY rebound has since printed higher lows at 83519 and is retesting the london high near 84000, just under the 38.2% of the spike fib. The 84141 rebound high caps the recovery, and ATR(14) is inflated at roughly 36,000 pips.
Support: 83,934.00, 83,519.00, 83,212.00
Resistance: 84,141.00, 84,568.00, 85,486.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84141 rebound high clears the 38.2% spike fib and exposes the 84568 lower high
Failure to hold the 83934 london high turns the retest into rejection
A break of the 83519 higher low and the rebound line ends the recovery sequence and brings back the 83212 data low
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the post-PCE read
15:48 UTC
Post-PCE whipsaw, recovering off the low · RSI 52 · price 84,002.49
Spike above pre-PCE range fully reversed, higher low now forming.
The 12:30 UTC soft core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3%) sent BTC to an 85,486 spike high. The move reversed within the hour and flushed to an 83,212 post-PCE low. Price has since printed a higher low at 83,519 and is back above the 83,933 pre-PCE high, pressing the 84,117 local high near the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral at 52.
What it said to watch
A close above the 84,117 local high opens the 50–61.8% retrace zone into the 84,568 pullback high
Failure to hold the 83,933 pre-PCE high puts the 83,519 higher low back in focus
A break of the 83,519 higher low exposes the 83,212 post-PCE low
Recovery toward the 85,486 spike high needs acceptance above the 84,568 pullback high first
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the post-PCE read
ATR(14) near 376 USD is inflated by the data bars; expect wide intraday swings
Failed breakout above London high, higher low at 83519, retesting 83934 from below.
The 12:30 UTC soft-PCE print lifted price from the 83934 london high to a 85486 pce high, but the spike fully unwound into an 83212 post-pce low in the first hours of NY. Price has since printed a higher low at 83519 and is back at the london high from below. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is elevated at about $380.
Support: 83,519.02, 83,212.36, 82,921.68
Resistance: 83,933.57, 85,485.86
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83934 london high reopens the pce spike fib 50% at 84350, with the pce high at 85486 beyond
Loss of the 83519 higher low exposes the rising lows line and the 83212 post-pce low, then the day low at 82922
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could shift the post-PCE read
False break above pre-PCE high, back inside the pre-release range.
The 12:30 UTC soft core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3% f/c) launched a spike to the 85,486 spike high. The whole spike faded within two hours, first capping at the 84,568 lower high, then printing a post-PCE low at 83,212 as a higher low above the 82,922 London low. Early NY session now has price pressing the pre-PCE high near 83,930, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR expanded to roughly $370.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,933 pre-PCE high puts the 84,568 lower high back in play
Loss of the 83,561 bounce low and the higher lows line from the London low exposes the 83,212 post-PCE low
A break of the 83,212 post-PCE low leaves the 82,922 London low as the next reference
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
PCE spike to 85486 retraced ~79%, higher low at 83212.
The 12:30 UTC soft core PCE print lifted BTC through the 83933 pre-PCE high to a 85486 spike high. The move reversed through the first two hours of NY and is now a false break, with price stalled near the 78.6% fib after a swing low at 83212. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly $390 per bar, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 83,212.36
Resistance: 85,485.86
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83212 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 82921 London low
M15 close back above the 83933 pre-PCE high invalidates the false-break read
A recovery toward the 85486 spike high would need a sustained hold above 83933 first
Fed Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could re-price the PCE reaction
Spike rejected, compressing between 83,850 base and 84,570.
The cooler core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC lifted price from the 83,850 pre-pce base to a 85,486 pce high. The first NY session bar then reversed almost the whole leg, wicking to 83,853 near the 61.8% retrace. Price is now chopping just below EMA20 around the 50% level, capped by the 84,570 bounce high with a higher low at 83,972.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,850 pre-pce base unwinds the PCE breakout and exposes the 83,000 area
Close above the 84,570 bounce high reopens 85,000 psych; the pce high at 85,486 is the rejection level
Loss of the 83,972 higher low leaves the 61.8% retrace as the only structure left
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could shift the post-PCE read
Range break at 12:30 UTC then sharp rejection; price mid-retracement.
The soft core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC broke price out of the 82,950–83,930 London range to a 85,486 PCE spike high. The 13:30 bar then reversed most of the move, printing a wick low at 83,853. Early in the NY session, price is holding near the fib 50% at 84,220 with the 84,568 bounce high capping, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the pre-PCE high at 83,934 and the 83,853 wick low would turn the breakout into a false break back inside the London range
Close above the 84,568 bounce high reopens the 85,000 round number and the 85,486 PCE spike high
ATR(14) has expanded to roughly $360 per bar, so expect wide intraday swings while the PCE reaction is still being priced
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift the post-PCE read
Breakout above prior high failed; price back at the 50% fib.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC (3.0% vs 3.3%) drove BTC out of the 83,710–83,930 London base, through the prior high at 84,264 and up to a pce high at 85,486. The 13:30 bar then gave back nearly the whole leg, printing a spike low at 83,853, and early NY trade now sits on the 50% fib just under the prior high. RSI(14) has cooled to about 58 and ATR remains stretched after the event bars.
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 84,264 prior high keeps the post-PCE push reading as a false break; a close above the 38.2% fib at 84,506 reopens the pce high at 85,486
Break of the 83,853 spike low and the 83,710 pre-pce base puts price back inside the London range
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari this evening could materially shift this read
Range breakout at 12:30 UTC, tight consolidation above 85,000.
The soft US core PCE print at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-PCE high at 83,934 in one bar. The move extended to an 85,486 session high before stalling. Early in the NY session, price is consolidating just above the 85,000 round number, which has held three tests, with RSI(14) near 77 and the rising support from the London lows well below.
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 85,000 round number exposes the post-PCE low at 84,716 and the 38.2% fib near 84,520
Close above the 85,486 session high extends the breakout; a return below the 83,934 pre-PCE high would mark a false break
Range break higher; HH/HL chain since London, tight hold above 85k.
The soft core PCE print (3.0% vs 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC drove BTC through the pre-PCE high at 83934, out of the overnight 82860–83680 range, to a session high at 85486. Price is holding just above the 85k psych level in the London-NY transition with RSI(14) near 84, stretched. The 12:45 low at 84716 sits between the 38.2% and 50% of the PCE impulse fib.
Support: 84,716.00, 83,934.00
Resistance: 85,486.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85486 session high extends the breakout leg
Loss of the 85k psych level exposes the 12:45 low at 84716 and the PCE impulse fib 50% near 84600
A return below the pre-pce high at 83934 would negate the breakout read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
13:06 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-data leg · RSI 83 · price 85,144.23
Range breakout; new HH at 85,410 after day-long 82,860–83,930 range.
BTC broke out of the day-long 82,860–83,930 range on the 12:30 UTC core PCE miss (3.0% vs 3.3%). The two-bar move ran about 1,500 points to a spike high at 85,410, and price is now holding just above the 85,000 psych level. RSI(14) near 83 is stretched, and the pre-PCE high at 83,934 sits close to the 61.8% fib of the London advance, with the London trendline well below.
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could extend or unwind the post-PCE spike
Loss of 85,000 psych and the post-PCE low at 84,716 exposes the 50% fib near 84,166
M15 close above the 85,410 spike high opens the path toward the 86,000 round number
A return below the pre-PCE high at 83,934 would mark the breakout as a false break
Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could shift the read later in NY hours
12:48 UTC
Uptrend, vertical breakout on data · RSI 87 · price 84,945.45
Break of London range top; higher lows since the Asia-session low at 82,922.
The 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP release bar broke out of the 83,710–83,933 London range, from range low to range top, and printed a spike high of 84,997. That cleared the prior high of 84,505 from the start of the window, while the ADP beat 15 minutes earlier barely moved price. The move extends the higher-low sequence from the 82,922 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 87 and price pressing the 85,000 psych level.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,505 prior high would show the PCE spike being faded
A return inside the London range, below the 83,933 range top, would mark a false break; the 61.8% fib sits near the 83,710 range low
M15 acceptance above the 84,997 spike high and 85,000 psych extends the breakout into fresh window highs
The NY cash open at 13:30 UTC and the USD/2y yield reaction to core PCE could materially shift this read
12:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into data · RSI 77 · price 84,188.29
Higher lows off the London double bottom, late-London range broken higher on the PCE bar.
A London-morning double bottom at 82920–82955 started a chain of higher lows. Late London then capped price between the 83635 range low and the 83934 range top, and the ADP beat drew only a muted reaction. The still-forming 12:30 UTC PCE bar has broken the range top to 84188, putting price back under the lower high left before yesterday's NY selloff, with RSI(14) near 77.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,934.00, 83,635.00
Resistance: 84,430.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
The PCE bar is still open. A close back below the 83934 range top would turn the breakout into a false break.
Acceptance above the 84000 round number opens the 84430 lower high, then the 84505 window high.
A break of the rising trendline of higher lows and the 83635 range low would undo the intraday uptrend read.
Waller speaks at 19:00 UTC, and a hawkish easing-path signal after sticky PCE could reverse the NY-session move.
Double bottom at 82920–82955, breakout above prior high, retest in progress.
London reversed off a double bottom near 82920–82955, cleared the Asian range and the 83806 prior high, and printed a session high at 83934 as USD eased off its highs. Price is now back at that prior high with the rising lows near 83725 intact and RSI(14) cooling from the low 80s.
Support: 83,725.00, 83,634.90, 83,547.00
Resistance: 83,805.71, 83,933.57, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC land inside the next two bars and could override the intraday structure
M15 close below the rising lows near 83725 turns the break of the 83806 prior high into a false break
Loss of the 83635 swing low opens the fib 38.2 of the London leg at 83547
Close above the 83934 session high extends the London leg toward the 84505 24h high
HH/HL chain off 82920 double bottom, pressing session high.
London swept below the Asian range low into a double bottom near the 82920 london low, then rallied roughly 1,000 through the overnight 83805 prior high to a session high at 83934, with RSI(14) near 74. Price is holding just under the 84000 round number in the London-NY transition, with the 83635 pullback low as the latest higher low on the rising trendline, as USD eases off its highs ahead of the data.
Support: 83,634.90
Resistance: 83,933.57, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) land within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 83805 prior high and the rising trendline puts the breakout in question
Loss of the 83635 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 50% of the London rally near 83430
Acceptance above the 84000 round number opens the path toward the 84505 window high; rejection there leaves the 82920 london low as the structural floor
11:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into data · RSI 67 · price 83,881.62
HH/HL chain from London double bottom; Asian range and overnight high broken.
London held a double bottom at the 82922 london low. The London rally has since cleared the Asian range and the 83806 prior high, printing a session high at 83926 with RSI(14) near 67. The move lines up with USD easing off its highs on Williams' patience call, and higher lows remain intact above the 83635 swing low.
Support: 83,806.00, 83,635.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,926.00, 84,000.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC land within the hour and could materially shift this read; the 15-minute gap between releases raises whipsaw risk
M15 close back below the 83806 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
A break of the 83635 swing low and the rising lows line ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 84000 round number opens the path toward the 84505 yday high
11:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the lows, pausing · RSI 64 · price 83,792.72
Higher lows since the 82922 London-open low; retest of prior high.
A double bottom at 82880–82922 held into London, and the session broke the Asian high at 83679. It then cleared the 83806 prior high to a session high at 83911. The pullback found demand at the 83635 swing low, and price is now retesting 83806 with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR(14) around $170.
Support: 83,679.00, 83,635.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,806.00, 83,911.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 83635 swing low breaks the rising lows and puts price back inside the Asian range, which tops at the 83679 Asian high.
Holding the 83806 prior high and breaking the 83911 session high opens the 84000 round number.
A deeper pullback brings the 50% level of the London leg fib, near 83416, into play. A loss of the double bottom zone at 82922 negates the recovery structure.
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (15:15/15:30 broker) could materially shift this read. The 15-minute gap between them raises whipsaw risk.
11:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London lows, pausing below session high · RSI 66 · price 83,787.73
Double bottom near 82,920 then HH/HL leg; testing prior high 83,805.
A double bottom near 82,920 through the London open fed a rally through the Asian range and the 83,805 prior high to a session high at 83,910. The 11:00 UTC bar pulled back to a 83,635 pullback low before recovering, leaving price back at the 83,805 break level. RSI(14) at ~66 and ATR around $180 heading into ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC).
What it said to watch
ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) within the next hour could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 83,635 pullback low breaks the London rally trendline
Loss of the 83,420 swing high exposes the dbl bottom at 82,920
Acceptance above the 83,910 session high opens the path toward the Tue high at 84,505
11:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into late London · RSI 65 · price 83,814.70
Double bottom near 82,900 resolved higher, now retesting the 83,805 breakout level.
The London open low at 82,920 held just above yesterday's 82,864 low, forming a double bottom. The rally that followed cleared the 83,580 Asia high and the 83,805 overnight high, reaching an 83,910 session high with RSI(14) near 65. Late in London, price is back at the breakout level, holding above the rally trendline, with ADP and core PCE due in the first hour of NY.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 83,805 breakout level would turn the move into a false break
Loss of the rally trendline and the 83,580 Asia high (near the 38.2% of the London rally fib at ~83,530) would break the higher-low chain
A close above the 83,910 session high opens the 84,000 round number and the 84,505 yday high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read, and the 15-minute gap between them raises whipsaw risk
A return to the 82,920 double btm area would invalidate the reversal structure
10:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low · RSI 66 · price 83,830.68
Double bottom breakout, higher lows since 08:45 UTC, trading above the Asian range.
The London rally reversed Asia's slide. A double bottom at 82922–82955 cleared its 83422 neckline, then price pushed through the Asian high and the overnight prior high at 83806, marking a session high at 83881 as the USD eased on Williams' dovish tilt. RSI(14) near 66 is not stretched, with the 84000 round number and the yday high at 84505 overhead.
Support: 83,805.71, 83,678.85, 83,422.13
Resistance: 83,880.62, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
A slip back below the 83806 prior high and the 83679 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
An M15 close above the 84000 round number opens the path toward the yday high at 84505
Loss of the 83422 neckline, near the 50% retracement of the London rally, invalidates the double bottom read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Double bottom breakout, trading above the Asian range.
London rallied about 900 points off a double btm at 82922/82955 and cleared the Asia high at 83679. Price is now pressing the late-NY high near 83804 with RSI(14) around 73, ahead of the ADP/core PCE cluster.
Support: 83,678.85, 82,921.68
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
Holding the 83740 prior pivot keeps the london rally line intact; losing it exposes the 83679 asia high
M15 close above the 84000 round number opens the path to the 84505 tue high
A retrace through the 50% level of the london leg fib (~83374) weakens the double btm breakout read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London reversed the Asia-session drift. A sweep under the asian low set the session low at 82922, a second test held at 82955 for a double bottom, and price then broke through the descending trendline to a session high at 83742. Price is holding just below that high with RSI(14) near 66 and a pullback low at 83475. There is no crypto-specific driver, and the macro read is two-way after the soft JOLTS print.
Support: 83,475.00, 83,130.00, 82,922.00
Resistance: 83,742.00, 83,806.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83806 overnight hi clears the overnight top and opens the 84000 round number
Rejection at the 83742 session high plus a break of the 83475 pullback low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone at 83330–83235
Loss of the 83130 asian low negates the double bottom read and puts the 82922 session low back in play
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC), about 2h out, could materially reset this structure; Waller's 19:00 UTC remarks add further risk
10:05 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 66 · price 83,679.85
Asian low swept, higher low at 82955, push through Asian range high.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian low into 82922, then set a higher low at 82955. The London swing has since carried price back above the Asian range high near 83680, and the 09:15 UTC wick set a session high at 83738. RSI(14) at ~66 is firm but not stretched, and the 83738–83806 band (session high and the prior swing high from late NY) is the next test, with no crypto-specific driver in play ahead of US data.
Support: 83,475.07, 82,954.64, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,737.78, 83,805.71, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83806 swing high clears the late-NY cap; 84000 round number is the next reference
Loss of the 83475 minor low undercuts the Asian-high breakout; 50% of the London swing sits near 83330
Break of the 82955 higher low and 82864 24h low would turn the structure back to lower lows
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 3.3%) in ~2h could override the intraday structure
Higher low at 82,955 then rejection at session high inside 82,860–83,800 range.
London open swept the Asian range low to the 82,920 london low, then printed a higher low at 82,955 and cleared the 83,420 prior high to a 83,738 session high, which was rejected back to 83,500 below the 83,804 overnight high. RSI(14) near 61 with price above both EMAs, still inside the 82,860–83,800 range held since yesterday's NY selloff.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,804 overnight high breaks the range top in place since yesterday's NY session
Loss of the 83,420 prior high puts the 61.8% fib at 83,233 in play; failure there exposes the 82,920 london low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC, 15 minutes apart, could produce a whipsaw that shifts this read
Fed's Waller speaks at 19:00 UTC; any easing-path signal could move BTC via yields and the USD
London double bottom inside an 82860–83810 range; lower highs since yesterday's NY sell-off.
London opened with a break below the Asian low to 82922. An 82955 higher low then formed a double bottom above yesterday's 82864 prior low, and the rebound is now pressing the 83477 swing high at the 61.8% fib of the 83806–82922 drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 54. The wider read is still an 82860–83810 range with lower highs from the 83806 prior high, as a firm USD caps rallies ahead of the US data.
Support: 83,065.00, 82,955.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,477.00, 83,680.00, 83,806.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83477 swing high and 61.8% fib opens the 83680 asian high
Loss of the 83065 swing low puts the 82955 higher low and double bottom back in question
Break of the 82864 prior low ends the range read and confirms a lower-low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Short-term downtrend, compressing into a base · RSI 47 · price 83,231.34
Lower highs from 83,806 against a flat base at 82,920–82,960.
Mid-London, the open swept the Asian low and reclaimed it. Buyers have now defended the base twice, at the 82,922 london low and the 82,955 swing low. Highs keep stepping down from the 83,806 swing high along a descending trendline, and the latest bounce is stalling near the 38.2% fib ahead of US ADP/PCE.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,422 london high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 83,679 asia high in play
Failure to hold the 82,922 london low exposes the 82,864 ny low and confirms a lower-low
ADP at 12:15 UTC then core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read; the 15-min gap raises whipsaw risk
Lower-high/lower-low chain; London bounce rejected, price back on 83000.
The lower-high chain from the 83806 overnight high is intact. The London open bounce off 82922 stalled at 83422, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the overnight drop, and has faded back to the 83000 round number. That follows yesterday's NY sell-off from 84505 amid a firm USD and rich Fed-hike pricing, with RSI(14) near 38 and not oversold.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,921.68, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,422.13, 83,805.71
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82922 london low and the 82864 prior low (yesterday's NY low) extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 83422 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and the 50–61.8% fib cap
A reclaim of the 83806 overnight high invalidates the downtrend read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR is near 180 points per bar
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the overnight peak · RSI 40 · price 83,025.57
Lower-high chain under a descending trendline; London bounce faded back to 83000 psych.
Lower highs from the 83806 overnight hi carried through Asia. London opened with a dip to 82922 (london low), and the bounce stalled at 83422 (london high), between the 50% and 61.8% of the overnight fib and just under the descending trendline. Price is back at 83000 psych with RSI(14) near 40 and a firm USD backdrop offering no crypto-specific lift.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,921.68, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,422.13, 83,805.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82922 london low and the 82864 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 83422 london high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain, with the 83806 overnight hi as the next reference
Holding 83000 psych keeps a possible base intact above the prior low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read; the 15-minute gap between them raises whipsaw risk
Lower highs and lower lows below the 83,806 overnight high; early London trading at 83,000.
Lower-high chain since the 83,806 overnight high. The early-London bounce was rejected at 83,422, just under the 61.8% of the overnight decline, and price is back at the 83,000 psych level below both EMAs. The London low at 82,922 and yesterday's NY low at 82,864 form the next support pocket, with a firm USD into today's data as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,864 ny low extends the lower-low sequence past yesterday's NY-session trough
Close above the 83,422 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Loss of the 83,000 psych level puts the 82,922 london low in play
Overnight hi at 83,806 caps the structure; a reclaim would reset the intraday read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~4h out) could materially shift this read, with a whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
Highs have stepped lower since 83806 overnight. The London open swept below the Asian range to the 82922 london low, bounced to the 83422 london high near the 61.8% fib and the lower-high trendline, then was rejected back into the 83070s. RSI(14) sits near 47 with price below both EMAs as a firm USD caps the tape, and the 82864 swing low from yesterday's NY sell-off remains the floor beneath.
Support: 82,921.68, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,422.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83422 london high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence and exposes the 83680 asian high
Failure to hold the 82922 london low exposes the 82864 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could whipsaw price through both ends of this range
08:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late NY · RSI 48 · price 83,239.33
Lower highs; Asian-low false break reclaimed.
BTC has printed lower highs from the 83806 swing high since late NY, with a firm USD and high yields in the background. Early London dipped through the 83130 asian low to an 82922 london low, holding above the 82864 swing low, then reclaimed it. The bounce stalled at an 83422 lower high near the 61.8% fib, and price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 83,130.00, 82,922.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,422.00, 83,580.00, 83,806.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83422 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 83580 asian high is the next reference
Loss of the 83130 asian low reopens the 82922 london low and 82864 swing low
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since late NY; London open swept the Asian low and reclaimed it.
London open swept below the Asian low at 83130 to a sweep low at 82922, holding above yesterday's 82864 prior low. Price then snapped back to 83390, about a 50% retrace of the drop from the 83806 swing high, and is now pressing the lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price sits just above a flat EMA50, after yesterday's NY slide from 84505 as yields surged post-JOLTS.
Support: 82,921.68, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,477.07, 83,678.85, 83,805.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83477 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the 83679 asian high in play
Failure back below the 83130 asian low reopens the 82922 sweep low and the 82864 prior low
Rejection at the lower-highs trendline near 83400 keeps the intraday downtrend intact
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with a whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
07:32 UTC
Lower highs since overnight peak, bouncing off session low · RSI 47 · price 83,253.32
London-open sweep below Asian low, rejected back inside Asian range under falling trendline.
Lower highs from the 83,806 overnight high carried into a London-open sweep of the 83,129 Asian low and the 83,000 handle. The move printed a 82,922 session low just above the 82,864 prior NY low before a sharp rejection to the 83,368 London high. Price sits back inside the Asian range, marginally above EMA20 but under EMA50 and the falling trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 83,477 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from the overnight high
Slip back under the 83,129 Asian low puts the 82,922 session low and 82,864 prior NY low back in play; a close below both confirms a lower-low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, with a whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into London · RSI 39 · price 83,035.56
Lower highs from 83806, Asian low broken, testing prior NY swing low.
Lower highs from 83806 through Asia, capped by the descending trendline at the 83477 lower high. Early London has broken the Asian low to a 82922 session low and is testing yesterday's 82864 NY swing low, with RSI(14) near 39 and no extreme. Macro is two-way, with a JOLTS miss against sticky inflation, so there is no BTC-specific driver behind the drift.
Support: 82,922.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,180.00, 83,477.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82864 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 83180 minor high and the descending trendline near 83400 breaks the lower-high chain
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 82,927.67
Asian range low broken at London open, testing prior NY low.
Asia session carved lower highs off 83805 and broke the Asian low at 83129 into the London open. Price has now retraced almost the entire recovery leg and is pressing the 82864 NY low, with RSI(14) near 34 and no crypto-specific driver while a firm USD holds ahead of today's US data.
Support: 82,863.74, 82,500.00
Resistance: 83,129.45, 83,477.07, 83,678.85
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82864 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82500 psych level
Reclaim of the 83129 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 83477 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line of lower highs; the 83679 asian high sits above
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with whipsaw risk between the two
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 82,975.62
Asian range low broken pre-London; LH/LL chain from 83,806.
The Asia session printed a lower-high/lower-low chain off the 83,806 swing high. The 06:15 UTC bar broke the Asian low at 83,129 ahead of London open, leaving price just above yesterday's NY-session prior low at 82,864. RSI(14) near 36 is not oversold, and with no crypto-specific driver, a firm USD on hawkish rate pricing is the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,864 prior low confirms a lower-low, with the 82,500 round number next below
Reclaim of the 83,129 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the break
M15 close above the 83,477 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the LH/LL sequence
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 83,078.51
LH/LL chain; Asian range low broken ahead of London open.
Lower highs from the 83804 Asian high (83580, then the 83477 swing high) resolved lower. The 06:00 UTC bar broke the 83129 Asian low, and price is now sitting just above the 83000 round number, with RSI(14) near 40 and not stretched. The firm USD and elevated yields frame the drift, with the prior NY low at 82864 the next reference below.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,129.00, 83,477.00, 83,804.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83129 Asian low marks the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 83000 round number exposes the 82864 NY low
Close above the 83477 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 83,120.46
Descending lower-high / lower-low chain since 23:00 UTC high.
Asia session has stepped down from the 83,805 prior high in lower highs and lower lows. The 06:00 UTC drop printed a fresh session low at 83,066, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 40. The next reference below is yesterday's ny low at 82,864, set in the post-JOLTS selloff. Late Asia, with London open ahead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,477 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 83,066 session low exposes the 82,864 ny low
Reclaim of the 83,805 prior high negates the Asia downtrend read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 83,805 capping a flat 83,130 base.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open: BTC is chopping near 83,340 in the lower half of the 83,130–83,680 Asian range. A lower-high trendline off the 83,805 bounce high is capping rallies, and the latest rejection came at the 83,477 swing high, near the 38.2% of the day high–low fib. The NY-session slide around the JOLTS miss set the 82,864 day low, and demand has since stepped in twice just above the 83,130 asia low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,477 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence, with the 83,580 lower high next
Close back above the 83,805 bounce high (between the 50% and 61.8% day high–low fib) negates the lower-high structure
Loss of the 83,130 asia low exposes the 82,864 day low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read, and the 15-minute gap between them raises whipsaw risk
05:48 UTC
Intraday downdrift, bounce off Asian low · RSI 53 · price 83,441.11
Lower highs from 83806, price mid-Asian range.
The Asian session carved lower highs off the 83806 swing high down to an 83129 Asian low. The late-Asia bounce to 83477 is pressing into the 50% retracement of that move and the EMA50, with a firm, yield-driven USD as backdrop. Yesterday's NY sell-off prior low at 82864 remains the deeper reference, and price sits mid-range into London open.
Support: 83,252.00, 83,129.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,580.00, 83,679.00, 83,806.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83580 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 83679 asian high in play
Failure to hold the 83252 swing low reopens the 83129 asian low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Corrective bounce inside a downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 51 · price 83,407.15
Late Asia range 83,130–83,680, lower-highs sequence being tested.
NY selloff ran from 84,505 to the 82,864 NY low as the USD firmed on yields. The rebound stalled at the 83,804 rebound high, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the move, and Asia has printed lower highs since. Late in the Asia session, price is holding above the 83,130 Asian low and pressing the lower-highs trendline near 83,380, with RSI(14) neutral around 51 and price sitting just under EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,444 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs sequence, with the 83,580 swing high next
Failure to hold the 83,130 Asian low exposes the 82,864 NY low
London open in ~1.5h may set the session range against the Asian low and high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
BTC has stepped lower through the Asian range (83,129–83,680) in a lower-high chain from the 83,804 post-NY high. It now sits just above the 83,129 asia low, below both EMAs and a descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 33. A firmer USD on 2004-era yields has outweighed yesterday's soft JOLTS miss.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,129 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82,864 24h low
M15 close above the 83,387 lower high breaks the descending trendline and invalidates the grind-lower read
Recovery back to the 83,680 asia high would return price to the top of the Asian range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 41 · price 83,249.32
Lower highs and lower lows since the 83,804 swing high.
The overnight bounce was rejected at 83,804, the swing high just below the 61.8% fib of yesterday's NY sell-off from 84,505. The Asia session has since printed a chain of lower highs under a falling trendline, with a fresh session low at 83,129. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, and macro offers no crypto-specific driver ahead of the US data cluster.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,580 lower high invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Failure to hold the 83,129 session low exposes yesterday's 82,864 swing low
Falling trendline near 83,360 is capping bounces; a clean break shifts the micro-structure
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with a whipsaw possible across the 15-minute gap
Lower highs through Asia session, holding above the Asian low.
Asia session has ground lower from the 83,679 Asian high. Price is capped by a descending line of lower highs and printed a fresh Asian low at 83,129 around 03:15 UTC. Price is at 83,293, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42, back in the lower quarter of yesterday's NY selloff from 84,505 to the 82,864 swing low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,444 lower high breaks the descending line and the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 83,129 Asian low exposes the 82,864 swing low from the NY selloff
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 83806 bounce high, basing above 83129.
Selling from the 84505 high gathered pace through NY hours as the USD firmed on 2004-era yields, reaching an 82864 swing low. The late-NY bounce was rejected at 83806, just under the 61.8% fib of the selloff. The Asia session has printed lower highs down to an 83129 Asian low, and price is now pressing the descending trendline near 83390 from just below EMA20.
Support: 83,129.45, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,390.00, 83,579.96, 83,805.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the trendline near 83390 breaks the Asia lower-high chain and exposes the 83580 lower high
Failure to hold the 83129 Asian low extends the sequence toward the 82864 swing low
A reclaim of the 83806 bounce high and 61.8% fib would neutralise the selloff structure
London open is roughly 2.5h out and could expand the current 83129–83390 Asian range
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session.
The NY selloff from 84505 held at the 82864 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 83804 swing high, just under the 61.8% retrace, and Asia has since printed lower highs at 83580 and below. Price is bouncing off a fresh 83129 Asian low but stays under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43, against a firm USD into today's US data.
Support: 83,129.45, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,579.96, 83,803.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline (~83430) and the 83580 lower high breaks the Asian down-sequence
Failure to hold the 83129 asian low exposes the 82864 ny low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read, with whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia inside the 82864–83806 post-sell-off range.
Late in the Asia session, price has stepped lower from the 83,806 range high in a chain of lower highs capped by a descending trendline. It printed a fresh 83,129 Asia low and sits in the lower half of the 82,864–83,806 range set after yesterday's NY sell-off from 84,505. RSI(14) is near 38 with both EMAs overhead; there is no crypto-specific driver, and the USD is firm into today's US data.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,129 Asia low exposes the 82,864 NY low
M15 close above the descending trendline (~83,420) and the 83,580 lower high neutralises the Asia downtrend read
Reclaim of the 83,806 range high brings the 61.8% NY sell-off fib near 83,878 into play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
03:48 UTC
Short-term downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 37 · price 83,306.26
Lower highs and lower lows since the 83806 swing high.
The late-NY rebound from yesterday's 84505→82864 flush stalled at the 83806 swing high. Asia has since printed a lower high at 83580 and a fresh asian low at 83129, and price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 37. There is no crypto-specific driver, while a firm USD and 10Y yields above 5.2% keep a lid on rebounds.
Support: 83,129.45, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,579.96, 83,805.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83129 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82864 swing low
Close above the 83580 lower high breaks the Asian descending sequence, putting the 83806 swing high back in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read, with whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 31 · price 83,252.32
Lower highs and lower lows since the 83806 prior high.
After yesterday's NY sell-off from 84505 to the 82864 NY low, the rebound stalled at the 83806 prior high, and the Asia leg has since printed a lower-high chain from 83580. Price sits just above the 83129 session low with RSI(14) near 31, below both EMAs. The USD stays firm on elevated yields ahead of today's data.
Support: 83,129.45, 83,000.00, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,579.96, 83,805.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83580 lower high invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Failure to hold the 83129 session low exposes 83000 psych and the 82864 NY low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, slow grind lower in Asia · RSI 40 · price 83,291.27
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session after the post-NY bounce stalled at 83,806.
BTC fell from the 84,505 session high to an 82,864 NY low as US yields pushed above 5.2% and USD firmed. It then recovered to an 83,806 swing high after NY, but late Asia has faded that bounce through a lower-high chain to 83,291, now between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels with the asia low at 83,252 just below. RSI(14) is near 40, soft but not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,252 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 61.8% fib at 83,224, then the ny low at 82,864
M15 close above the 83,580 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 83,806 swing high back in view
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 83,806; price holding near the 83,252 Asian range low.
The rebound from yesterday's NY selloff (84,505 to the 82,864 NY low) met rejection at the 83,806 prior high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib. The Asia session is grinding lower from there, with a lower high at 83,580 and price pressing the 83,252 Asian low. Both EMAs sit overhead and RSI(14) is near 39, with no crypto-specific driver while the USD stays firm.
What it said to watch
A break below the 83,252 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 82,864 ny low
An M15 close above the 83,580 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 83,806 prior high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:48 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 41 · price 83,323.24
Lower-high/lower-low chain off the 83,806 swing high; price at 50% of the NY recovery leg.
Asia session is fading from the 83,806 swing high with lower highs, and a fresh asian low printed at 83,252. Price sits near the 50% fib of the 82,864–83,806 NY recovery, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41, as a firm USD into the US data keeps a lid on the bounce.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 83,252 exposes the 61.8% fib near 83,224 and the 83,000 round number
An M15 close above the 83,580 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Loss of the 82,864 ny low would retrace the full NY recovery leg
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 83,806 into a flat Asian base at 83,283.
BTC dropped from the 84,505 prior high to the 82,864 NY low during NY hours as the dollar stayed firm through the JOLTS miss. The rebound stalled at the 83,806 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the NY selloff fib. The Asian session is printing lower highs down to 83,580, while the 83,283 Asian low has held twice. RSI(14) is near 42 and price sits below EMA20/50.
What it said to watch
A break of the 83,283 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83,000 round number and the 82,864 ny low
A close above the 83,580 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 83,806 swing high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a whipsaw across the 15-minute gap is possible
Asian range 83283–83679 under a descending line of lower highs.
The rebound from the 82864 NY low stalled at the 83804 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the NY drop, with the USD still firm on 10Y yields above 5.2%. Mid-Asia session, price is trading inside a 83283–83679 Asian range. The 83580 lower high was rejected under the descending lower-highs line, and RSI(14) sits near 44.
Support: 83,283.28, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,579.96, 83,678.85, 83,803.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83283 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 82864 ny low
Close above the 83580 lower high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 83679 asian high and 83804 swing high back in play
Acceptance above 83804 clears the 61.8% zone of the ny drop fib
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Corrective bounce fading, lower highs in Asia · RSI 42 · price 83,413.14
Post-sell-off base; lower highs from 83806 pressing on 83283 floor.
The London session high at 84505 gave way to a NY-hours slide to the 82864 NY low as USD firmed on yields, and the late-NY bounce stalled at the 83806 bounce high, just shy of the 61.8% of the sell-off. Early Asia is printing lower highs, the latest at 83497, into a flat 83283 Asian low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 83,283.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,497.00, 83,806.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83283 asian low extends the lower-high sequence back toward the 82864 ny low
Close above the 83497 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and reopens the 83806 bounce high
A move through 83806, near the 61.8% of the NY sell-off fib, would put the 84505 session high back in view
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 83805 into a flat base near 83283 during Asia.
The NY sell-off from 84505 to 82864 came with a firm USD and 10Y yields above 5.2%. The rebound was rejected at the 83805 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib, and has since printed lower highs down to 83497. Early Asia is holding a flat base at the 83283 asian low, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 83,283.28, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,497.05, 83,573.96
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83497 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 83574 asian high is next
Failure to hold the 83283 asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 82864 ny low
Rebound capped at the 83805 swing high; a move back through it negates the rejection at the fib
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Short-term downtrend within a larger range · RSI 38 · price 83,335.23
Lower highs from the 83,805 swing high, testing the 50% retrace of the rebound.
The Asia session is grinding lower from the 83,805 swing high in a lower-high chain. Price sits on the 50% retrace of the 82,864–83,805 rebound, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs. The NY-session drop from the 84,505 day high came as the USD firmed with the 10Y above 5.2%, and the 82,864 double bottom still anchors the rebound.
What it said to watch
A close below the 83,294 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the fib 61.8 at 83,224
Loss of the 82,864 swing low negates the double bottom and reopens the NY-session lows
A close above the 83,497 lower high breaks the lower-high line; the 83,805 swing high is the next rejection point, with the 84,505 day high beyond
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence inside the rebound from the NY low.
The day high at 84505 formed during London-NY hours and reversed into a NY slide to the 82864 day low, with the firm USD and yield backdrop behind the move. The rebound stalled at the 83806 lower high, and early Asia is printing successively lower highs. Price is pressing the 83294 Asia low near the 50% level of the NY rebound fib.
Support: 83,294.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,680.00, 83,806.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 83294 Asia low exposes the 82864 day low
A break back above the 83680 Asia high ends the lower-high sequence
A move through the 83806 lower high reopens the 84505 day high
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
83336–83806 range since NY close, Asia probing floor.
NY session sold off from the 84505 session high to the 82864 ny low as the dollar firmed on 10Y yields above 5.2%. The recovery has since been capped at the 83806 range top, and Asia session has probed the 83294 asian low just under the 83336 range floor, at the 50% retracement of the recovery fib; RSI(14) is 43 and price is below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 83,294.00, 83,000.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,681.00, 83,806.00
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 83294 asian low break the range floor and expose the 83000 psych level, then the 82864 ny low
Recovery above the 83681 swing high puts the 83806 range top back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Early Asia session has pulled back from the 83806 swing high into the 83340 higher low, which sits on the 50% fib of the 82864–83806 recovery. Price is below the ema20 with RSI(14) near 48, after NY sold off from 84505 to the 82864 NY low as the USD stayed bid on 10Y yields above 5.2% despite the JOLTS miss.
Support: 83,340.00, 83,224.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,545.00, 83,806.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83340 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the fib 61.8 at 83224, then the 82864 ny low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 83545 and a break of the 83806 swing high extend the recovery structure
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read, with a whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
00:32 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 83,534.01
Higher lows off 82864, capped by 83806 swing high.
BTC printed the day high at 84505 before a NY-session slide to the 82864 NY low as the USD firmed on 10Y yields above 5.2%. Higher lows since then at 83336 and the 83364 swing low sit beneath the 83806 swing high. Early Asia is trading mid-range with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 83,364.19, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,805.71, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83364 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 50% recovery fib near 83335
Clearance of the 83806 swing high reopens the 84505 day high
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 83,471.08
Higher lows off 82864 NY low; rally capped at 83806, rising trendline broken early Asia.
The overnight-to-NY-open rally topped at the 84505 day high, then NY sold off to the 82864 NY low; the recovery stalled at the 83806 late high, short of the 61.8% of the NY drop fib. The first bars of the new Asia session have slipped under the rising NY low trendline to the 38.2% (~83490), with RSI(14) near 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,336.22, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,805.71, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
A close below the 83336 swing low ends the post-NY higher-low sequence and exposes the 82864 NY low
A move back above the 83806 late high reclaims the NY low trendline and puts the 61.8% of the NY drop fib (~83878) in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 15-minute gap between them leaves room for a whipsaw
00:04 UTC
Recovering after NY selloff, higher lows · RSI 59 · price 83,620.91
HL chain off 82864 low, capped below fib 61.8.
The NY session unwound the 84505 session high, set at the London-NY transition, down to the 82864 ny low as the USD stayed bid on yields. The rebound since has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, but the 23:00 UTC push to the 83806 late high stalled short of the fib 61.8 at 83878. Price is now back under the fib 50 at 83684, sitting on the trendline near the 83579 higher low as the Asia session opens, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 83,579.00, 83,336.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,684.00, 83,806.00, 83,878.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83579 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 83336 swing low
M15 close above the 83806 late high puts the fib 61.8 at 83878 in play
A break below the 83336 swing low would reopen the 82864 ny low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read