BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Recovery off NY low, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 83,639.89
Higher lows since 82,864; lower high vs 84,505 day high.
NY hours dropped price from the 84,505 day high to a double bottom near the 82,864 NY low. The late-day recovery has printed higher lows along rising support but was rejected at the 83,806 recent high, inside the 50–61.8% zone of the NY selloff fib. RSI(14) near 53 is neutral into the Asia session, with USD firm on yields ahead of Wednesday's data.
What it said to watch
Close below rising support and the 83,490 fib 38.2 would stall the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 83,336 swing low exposes the 82,864 NY low
Close above the 83,806 recent high opens the 84,000 round number, with the 84,505 day high above
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, higher lows intact · RSI 58 · price 83,683.84
HH/HL chain off the 82864 NY low, pulling back from 83806 into the 50% retracement.
NY peaked at the 84505 ny high, then flushed to the 82864 ny low. Price has since built a higher low at 83336 and broke the 83660–83680 prior high cap into early Asia. It is now retesting that prior high at the 50% fib of the NY drop, with 83806 swing high and the 61.8% fib at 83878 overhead. Macro drivers are two-way, and there is no crypto-specific catalyst.
Support: 83,680.00, 83,336.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,806.00, 83,878.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83680 prior high marks the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 83336 higher low and the rising support line breaks the recovery chain
Close above the 61.8% fib at 83878 opens the path back toward the 84505 ny high
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) Wed could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off NY low · RSI 61 · price 83,782.73
Post-NY range 83336–83680 broken higher, below 61.8% fib.
The NY-session drop from the 84505 day high began around the 14:00 UTC JOLTS release as USD firmed, and ran to the 82864 NY low. Since then the pair has printed higher lows and closed above the 83680 range top, which is also the 50% retrace of that drop. After the NY close, price sits just under the 61.8% fib at 83878 with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) around 142 (14,200 pips).
Support: 83,680.00, 83,336.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,878.00, 84,000.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83680 range top reopens the 83336 range low and the rising higher-lows line
A break of the higher-lows line exposes the 82864 NY low
A close above the 61.8% fib at 83878 and the 84000 round number opens the path to the 84505 day high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
23:05 UTC
Rebounding from NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 59 · price 83,577.96
Tight range 83336–83681 after the NY rebound, higher low off the NY low.
After the NY selloff from 84505 to a double bottom at 82880/82864 (ny low), BTC recovered and has held a 83336–83681 range into the Asia open, with the range top sitting on the 50% of the NY drop fib. Mixed US data (JOLTS miss, sticky inflation read) has produced no follow-through either way, and price is holding just above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 83,336.22, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,680.84, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83681 range top clears the 50% NY drop fib and exposes the 84000 round number
Loss of the 83336 range low and the rising support from the NY low reopens the 82864 ny low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) tomorrow could materially shift this read, with whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
22:47 UTC
Range after NY-open sell-off, partial recovery · RSI 54 · price 83,579.96
Rising lows off 82864 double base, capped at 50% retrace 83681.
The NY open knocked price off the 84505 day high to a double base at 82864–82880. The recovery has since stalled at the range top of 83660–83681, which is the 50% retrace of that drop, while rising lows hold the range low at 83336. Waller's 19:00 UTC remarks produced no break, and with the USD firm near its YTD highs, late NY is drifting mid-range with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 83,336.22, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,680.84, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83681 range top clears the 50% retrace and opens 84000 round number
Failure to hold the 83336 range low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 82864 double base
A move beyond the 84505 day high would negate the NY sell-off structure
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read; whipsaw risk across the 15-minute gap
22:34 UTC
Flat range after NY sell-off · RSI 50 · price 83,541.00
Higher lows off 82,864 NY low, capped at 83,681 (50% fib).
The rebound from the NY low at 82,864 stalled at the range top of 83,681, the 50% fib of the 84,505–82,864 NY sell-off. Price has compressed in a 83,336–83,681 range since NY close, with RSI(14) near 50 and price hugging flat EMAs. A firm USD on yields capped the rebound, and Waller's remarks left no visible mark on the tape.
What it said to watch
A close above the range top at 83,681 (50% fib) opens the 84,000 round number
Loss of the range low at 83,336 breaks the rising lows and exposes the NY low at 82,864
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Higher lows off NY low, capped near 50% retracement.
London carried the Asia-session rally to an 84505 day high at 13:00 UTC, then NY hours unwound it to an 82864 NY low while the USD stayed firm and shrugged off the JOLTS miss. The late-session recovery is printing higher lows along rising support, but it stalled at the 83680 late high near the 50% fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and price hugging EMA20/50.
Support: 83,336.22, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,878.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83680 late high opens the 61.8% fib at 83878, with the 84505 day high beyond
Break of rising support and the 83336 swing low would return focus to the 82864 NY low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
Lower high at 83660 vs 84505 day high; higher lows above the 82864 NY low; 83336–83660 range.
The NY session reversed the London advance, dropping from the 84505 day high to an 82864 NY low as the USD pressed toward YTD highs. The 82706 Asia low held, and the bounce was rejected at the 83660 range high just under the 50% retrace. Price now sits mid-range at the 38.2% level, holding higher lows above the 83336 range low, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 83,336.22, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,659.87, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83336 range low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 82864 NY low
Close above the 83660 range high and the 50% retrace (~83685) opens the 84000 round number
Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 83660 after the NY drop; range 83336–83660 inside the Asian range.
London extended the rally off the 82706 asia low to a 84505 day high at 13:15 UTC. NY reversed it to a double bottom at 82864–82880, as the USD stayed firm on 10Y yields above 5.2%. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 83660 bounce high around Waller's speech, just shy of the 50% fib of the NY drop. Price is now compressing between the 83336 evening low and the 83575 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 83,336.22, 82,863.74, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,574.96, 83,659.87, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83336 evening low puts the 82864 ny low and the double bottom back under test
Close above the 83660 bounce high clears the 50% fib and reopens the path toward the 84505 day high
Repeated rejection at the 83575 asian high keeps price boxed in the late-session range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
21:34 UTC
Down from London high, rebound fading · RSI 42 · price 83,380.18
Lower high at 83660 after NY selloff; testing 83340 swing low.
The London high at 84505 gave way during NY hours, with BTC shedding ~1,640 to the 82864 NY low as the USD firmed on the 10Y holding above 5.2%, shrugging off the JOLTS miss. The rebound was rejected at the 83660 bounce high, just under the 50% retrace. Price is now late in NY back at the 83340 swing low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,659.87, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83340 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 82864 NY low
Recovery through the 83660 bounce high and 50% retrace reopens the 84000 round number
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Tight post-NY range 83,364–83,660; higher low above 82,864 NY low, capped well below 84,505 day high.
London's rally topped at the 84,505 day high into the NY open, then a sharp rejection took price to the 82,864 NY low as the USD firmed with the 10Y above 5.2%. The rebound stalled at the 83,660 rebound high just under the 50% fib. Price is now ranging after NY close near the 38.2% fib, sitting on ema20, with RSI(14) at 45.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,364 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 82,864 NY low, then the 82,706 asia low
M15 close above the 83,660 rebound high clears the 50% fib and opens the path to the 84,000 round number
The 84,505 day high remains the upper bound of the 24h range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Rebounding off NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 58 · price 83,569.97
Double bottom, higher low at 83364; compressing under 83660.
The 84505 day high was sold from the NY open into a double bottom at 82880/82864 (NY low), with the USD bid near two-month highs. The rebound stalled at the 83660 rebound high near the 50% fib of the drop. Price is now compressing between the 83364 higher low and 83660 after NY hours, sitting on EMA50.
Support: 83,364.19, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,659.87, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83660 rebound high clears the 50% fib and opens the 84000 round number
Loss of the 83364 higher low breaks the rising support line and exposes the NY low at 82864
A move back toward the 84505 day high would need the 84000 round number to give way first
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) tomorrow could materially shift this read
20:49 UTC
Intraday recovery after NY selloff, stalling near 50% fib · RSI 49 · price 83,592.94
Higher low at 83364 off an 82864 double low; lower high vs 84505 day high.
London's advance was rejected at the 84505 day high into the NY open, and NY hours brought a ~1,640-point slide to a double low near 82864 as the dollar held firm. The late-NY rebound has retraced about half of that drop and stalled at the 83660 rebound high, just under the 50% fib. A higher low at 83364 keeps the recovery structure intact, with price pinned near EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral around 49.
Support: 83,490.00, 83,364.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,660.00, 83,878.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the 38.2% fib at 83490 and the 83364 higher low would expose the 82864 double low again
Acceptance above the 83660 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib near 83878, with the 84505 day high above that
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
20:34 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off the NY low · RSI 58 · price 83,568.97
Higher lows from 82864, rebound capped at 83660 near the 50% fib.
London extended the Asia breakout to an 84505 day high. Early NY rejected it and sold to the 82864 NY low, still above the 82706 asia low. Late NY has built higher lows at 82948 and the 83364 swing low along a rising trendline, while the rebound stalls at 83660 around the 50% fib of the NY drop. Price holds above EMA20 but below EMA50, and the macro read stays two-way after the JOLTS miss.
Support: 83,364.19, 82,863.74, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,659.87, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
Break of the rising trendline and the 83364 swing low returns focus to the 82864 NY low, then the 82706 asia low
M15 close above the 83660 rebound high and the 50% fib opens the path to the 84000 round number, then the 84505 day high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
20:19 UTC
Rebound within NY selloff, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 83,511.03
Higher lows off 82864, capped at 83660.
London's advance to the 84505 session high reversed at the NY open, and the NY slide ran to the 82864 NY low. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 83660 swing high, just under the 50% fib of the NY slide, around the time Waller was due to speak at 19:00 UTC. Price is now compressing on a rising trendline and retesting the 38.2% fib near 83490, between EMA20 (~83450) and EMA50 (~83525), with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 83,364.19, 82,863.74
Resistance: 83,659.87, 83,877.90, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83364 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence and reopens the 82864 NY low
M15 close above the 83660 swing high brings the fib 61.8% at 83878 into view, with the 84505 session high beyond
Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:05 UTC
Recovering from NY sell-off, stalling below rebound high · RSI 61 · price 83,525.02
Double bottom near 82,870 then higher lows; 83,364–83,660 consolidation.
London pushed BTC to a 84,505 day high before NY reversed it to 82,864. A double bottom there broke its 83,270 neckline, but the rebound stalled at 83,660, just under the 50% fib. Price is now sitting just above the EMA50 inside a 83,364–83,660 box with no fresh driver after the JOLTS miss.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83,660 rebound high opens the 61.8% fib near 83,880 and the 84,000 round number
Loss of the 83,364 swing low breaks the higher-low line and puts the 83,270 neckline in play
Failure at the neckline exposes the 82,864 NY low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) tomorrow could materially shift this read; the 84,505 day high stays the upper reference
NY reversal from 84,505, lower high at 83,660 below 50% retrace.
NY session reversed London's advance, dropping from the 84,505 session high to the 82,864 NY low after the JOLTS miss as the USD stayed bid on yields. The rebound stalled twice at 83,660, a micro double top just under the 50% retrace of the NY selloff, around Waller's 19:00 UTC slot. Price has slipped back under EMA20 in late NY hours, with RSI(14) at 42.
What it said to watch
A break of the 83,346 pullback low extends the fade back toward the 82,864 NY low
Loss of 82,864 exposes the 82,706 asian low, the day's low
A close above the 83,660 double top and 50% retrace reopens the 84,000 round number
Waller's remarks and tomorrow's ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
NY double bottom near 82870, broke higher, now pulling back into the 38.2% retrace.
London lifted BTC off the Asian low of 82706 to an 84505 session high, then NY unwound the whole leg to the 82864 ny low as the USD firmed on 10Y yields above 5.2%, shrugging off the JOLTS miss. A double bottom there broke higher at 83346. The bounce stalled twice at the 83660 bounce high, just under the 50% retrace, and price is now sitting on the fib 38.2 near 83490.
Support: 83,490.00, 83,346.00, 82,864.00
Resistance: 83,660.00, 84,000.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83346 breakout undermines the double-bottom read and exposes the 82864 ny low
M15 close above the 83660 bounce high opens the 84000 round number, with the 84505 session high beyond
Waller is speaking now at 19:00 UTC; any easing-path signal could shift the rates read-through
ADP at 12:15 UTC and PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wed are the main scheduled risk; the 15-minute gap could whipsaw price
19:06 UTC
NY sell-off, recovering intraday · RSI 52 · price 83,578.96
Double bottom at NY low, neckline broken, stalling below 50% fib.
The NY open erased the whole London rally from the 84505 session high as the USD bid firmed on 10Y yields above 5.2%, carving a double bottom at the 82864 NY low that held above the 82706 Asian low. The 18:00 UTC break through the 83270 neckline put price back above both EMAs, with EMA50 only marginally cleared. The bounce is stalling at the 83650 bounce high, just under the 50% retracement of the NY decline.
Support: 83,270.00, 82,864.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,650.00, 83,878.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
Waller is speaking now (19:00 UTC) and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 83650 bounce high opens the 61.8% fib at 83878
A break of the rising lows line and the 83270 neckline negates the double bottom and brings the 82864 NY low back into play
Failure at the 82706 Asian low would print a fresh session low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) tomorrow are the next scheduled volatility risk
18:48 UTC
NY sell-off, late-session bounce · RSI 47 · price 83,449.10
Range break off 82864 base, stalling below fib 38.2.
London stretched the 06:00 UTC Asia breakout to a london high at 84505, rejected at the NY open, and the JOLTS-hour sell-off ran to the 82864 ny low. A twin base at 82880/82864 and a higher low at 82948 fed a range break above the 83260 range top at 18:00 UTC. The late-NY bounce is stalling just under the fib 38.2 at 83490, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 83,260.00, 82,864.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,490.00, 83,900.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83260 range top turns the range break into a false break
Acceptance above the fib 38.2 at 83490 opens the 50% at 83685 and the 83900 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 82948 higher low and the 82864 ny low re-exposes the 82706 asia low
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP and core PCE follow Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC
18:18 UTC
Downtrend from session high, bouncing off base · RSI 46 · price 83,424.13
Lower highs from 84505; 82864–83270 base broken to upside.
Rejection at the 84505 session high early in NY hours triggered a ~1,640-point slide as the firm USD and 10Y yields above 5.2% weighed. Price then based between the 82864 ny low and the 83270 range top for about three hours. The 17:45 UTC bar cleared the range top and is now testing the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff near 83490, just under the 83543 asian high. RSI(14) is neutral at ~46.
Support: 83,270.30, 82,863.74, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,543.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 83270 range top returns price to the 82864–83270 base
Acceptance above 83543 asian high opens the 50% retrace at 83685 and the 83820 prior break
Loss of 82864 ny low exposes the 82706 asian low and extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:05 UTC
Short-term downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 39 · price 83,169.41
NY reversal from 84505 day high back into Asian range; tight 82864–83270 band.
The NY open marked a rejection of London's run to the 84505 day high, and the sell-off erased the session gains back into the Asian range. Since 15:15 UTC price has compressed between the 82864 range low and the 83270 range top, near the 78.6% retracement of the day swing, with RSI(14) around 39 and price below the ema20 near 83360. The firmer USD on 5.2%+ 10Y yields is outweighing the soft JOLTS miss.
Support: 82,864.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,270.00, 83,360.00, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83270 range top opens a test of the ema20 near 83360 and the 83540 asian high
Failure to hold the 82864 range low exposes the 82706 asian low and confirms a lower-low
Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) speak during this late-NY compression and could break the range
ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) tomorrow are the next scheduled shock for the day swing structure
17:48 UTC
Intraday down, basing after NY selloff · RSI 36 · price 83,129.45
London rally fully reversed in NY; tight lower-high compression above the NY low.
NY session rejected the 84,505 session high and unwound the London rally, printing an 82,864 NY low as USD firmed on 5.2% 10Y yields despite the JOLTS miss. Price is back inside the Asian range, compressing under the 83,270 lower high and the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 36 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,270 lower high opens a retrace toward the 38.2% fib at 83,490 and the 83,746 london low
Failure to hold the 82,864 ny low exposes the 82,706 asian low
Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could materially shift USD, yields and this read
BTC was rejected at the 84505 NY high just after the NY open. It slid about 1,640 points after the 14:00 UTC JOLTS/confidence data, as a yields-driven USD bid outweighed the soft prints, and the 15:00 UTC breakdown through 83715 accelerated the move. Price now sits in a tight 82864–83270 range: the session low has held on two tests, sellers are capping the range top, and the market trades below the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff at ~83490, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 82,864.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,270.00, 83,715.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83270 range top breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 38.2% fib (~83490) and 83715 breakdown level in focus
Failure to hold the 82864 session low exposes the 82706 asia low
Williams at 18:00 UTC and Waller at 19:00 UTC could shift USD and yields, and this read with them
Post-sell-off consolidation 82,864–83,270, lower highs above the asia low.
The London rally to 84,505 was rejected. The move reversed through the 14:00 UTC JOLTS/confidence releases as USD firmed on 5.2% yields, and the ~1,640 NY sell-off erased the day's gains. Price has since compressed in an 82,864–83,270 band late in the NY session. The range top sits at the 23.6% retrace of the NY sell-off, and the asia low at 82,706 is below. RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is about 28,000 pips (~$280).
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,270 range top opens a retest of the 83,750 london base, in the 38.2–50% zone of the NY sell-off
Loss of the 82,864 ny low exposes the 82,706 asia low; a break there prints a fresh window low
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could shift this read via yields and USD
17:06 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 32 · price 83,002.59
NY reversal erased London rally; lower highs into 82,860 base.
The NY session reversed from the 84,505 session high and unwound the whole London advance back into the Asian range, with 5.2%+ yields and a firm USD outweighing the JOLTS miss. Price is now compressing between the ny low at 82,864 and the bounce high at 83,270, with lower highs capping each rebound.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,864 ny low exposes the 82,706 asia low and the day's range floor
Close above the 83,270 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; 83,464 breakdown level and 38.2% fib near 83,490 sit above
Recovery through the 83,818 london base would negate the NY reversal read
Fed's Goolsbee (17:00), Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00 UTC) could shift yields and this read inside the next few bars
The London rally from the 82706 Asian low topped at the 84505 session high early in NY. NY hours then retraced about 87% of the asian-ny leg to an 82880 NY low as USD firmed on 5.2%+ 10Y yields; lower highs near 83270 are capping price, and RSI(14) sits near 29.
Support: 82,880.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,270.00, 83,720.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82880 ny low exposes the 82706 asian low and a full retrace of the asian-ny leg
M15 close above the 83270 lower high breaks the lower highs sequence, with the 83720 breakdown area next
Rejection at the 84505 session high stays the reference top while price holds below 83720
Fed speakers Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00 and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:34 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 36 · price 83,139.44
Lower highs from 84,505; basing inside Asian range.
BTC reversed from the 84,505 session high in NY hours. The slide picked up after the 14:00 UTC confidence/JOLTS data as USD held firm, pulling price back inside the Asian range. Buyers stepped in twice at the 82,880 NY low, while the Asian high at 83,270 has capped the bounce so far. RSI(14) ~36.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,270 Asian high opens the 38.2% fib near 83,500
Failure to hold the 82,880 NY low exposes the 82,706 Asian low
Fed speakers Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00 and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY sell-off · RSI 24 · price 82,965.63
Double top at session high, lower highs, basing above NY low.
A double top at the 84475/84505 session high around the London-NY transition gave way to a NY-hours slide. The slide started at the 14:00 UTC JOLTS/confidence prints, with USD holding firm on yields, and it unwound the 06:00 UTC breakout, putting price back inside the Asian range. RSI(14) sits near 24 as price bases just above the 82880 ny low, with the rebound capped at the 83270 bounce high and a descending highs line in place.
Support: 82,880.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,270.00, 83,540.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82880 ny low exposes the 82706 asian low, the window low.
M15 close above the 83270 bounce high and the descending highs line eases the downtrend read; 83540 asian high sits near the 38.2% fib of the sell-off.
Fed's Barr (16:40 UTC), then Goolsbee, Williams and Waller through 19:00 UTC, could move yields and USD and materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 84505 session high, price back inside Asian range.
London pushed above yesterday's 84315 high to a 84505 session high. NY then unwound the whole move in a 1,600-point slide to the 82880 ny low, with USD holding firm on yields despite the soft Confidence print. Price now sits back inside the Asian range with RSI(14) near 29, and the first bounce is capped at the 83270 bounce high.
Support: 82,880.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,270.00, 83,540.00, 83,747.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83270 bounce high ends the lower-high sequence off 84505
Recovery through 83540 asian high (~38.2% of the NY slide) reopens the 83747 london low
Failure to hold 82880 ny low exposes the 82706 asian low
Fed speakers Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY reversal · RSI 31 · price 83,175.40
London rally unwound; price back inside Asian range, lower highs since 84505.
London's climb to the 84505 session high was fully unwound during NY hours. The slide deepened after the 14:00 UTC CB confidence print while US yields held near highs, and printed an 82880 ny low that put price back inside the Asian range. RSI(14) sits near 31, and the bounce so far is capped below the asian high at 83275.
Support: 82,880.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,275.00, 83,750.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82880 ny low opens the asian low at 82706
Recovery above the 83275 asian high brings the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off (~83690) and the 83750 london low into view
Fed speakers Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00 and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
London advance fully unwound; NY lower highs, price back inside Asian range.
BTC failed at 84,505 (13:15 UTC), a double top with the 84,475 high. It then set lower highs through the first hours of NY and broke the 83,746 London low, flushing to an 82,880 session low as USD held firm on 5.2%+ 10Y yields despite the JOLTS miss. RSI(14) is near 23 with price back inside the Asian range, and the 82,706 Asian low is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
Break of the 82,880 session low exposes the 82,706 Asian low, the bottom of the 24h window
M15 close above 83,500 (38.2% fib of the 84,505–82,880 drop) and the NY lower-highs line would challenge the breakdown read
83,746 London low is now overhead resistance; reclaiming it would erase the NY breakdown
Fedspeak cluster through Waller at 19:00 UTC could shift USD/yields, BTC's main macro channel today
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY open, momentum stretched · RSI 27 · price 83,411.14
Lower highs from the 84505 session high; London low at 83747 broken, price at the 61.8% retrace.
London carried the rebound from the 82706 Asian low to an 84505 session high, but supply capped it at NY open. A chain of lower highs then broke the 83747 London low as firm USD and 5.2%+ 10Y yields outweighed the JOLTS miss. Price now sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-to-London rally near the 83309 NY low, with RSI(14) around 27.
Support: 83,309.25, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,746.77, 84,000.00, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83309 NY low opens the 83021 swing low, then the 82706 Asian low
Recovery above the 83747 London low and the descending trendline off 84430 negates the NY reversal read; 84000 round number is next above
A return through the 84505 session high would reinstate the London higher-high structure
Fed speakers Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00 and Waller 19:00 UTC could shift USD and yields, BTC's main macro driver
15:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend reversing, lower highs since NY open · RSI 31 · price 83,666.86
Lower highs and lower lows off 84505; London low 83747 broken.
The rally from the 82706 Asian low ran through London to a 84505 session high. The NY open brought a rejection and a run of lower highs, with USD firm on 10Y yields near 5.25%. Price has slipped below the 83747 London low and is testing the 50% fib at 83605, RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 83,605.00, 83,393.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,747.00, 83,987.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83747 London low negates the breakdown
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 83605 exposes the 61.8% fib at 83393
Break above the 83987 lower high invalidates the lower-highs sequence
Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC (Bowman, Williams, Waller) could shift USD/yields and this read
London HH/HL chain broken; lower highs off 84505 in NY.
The rally off the 82706 Asia low stalled at the 84475/84505 session high, a double top whose 84115 neckline gave way as NY sold through the 14:00 UTC JOLTS/confidence release despite the soft miss. Price is now testing the 83747 london low near the 38.2% fib, with lower highs stacking beneath 84000 psych and RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 83,747.00, 83,274.00
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83747 london low exposes the 50% fib at 83605 and the 83274 asia high
Reclaim of 84000 psych and the lower-highs line reopens the 84505 session high
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00) could materially shift this read
14:34 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over from the high · RSI 46 · price 83,910.59
Double top at 84475/84505 with neckline 84114 broken on the 14:00 UTC data bar.
The rally from the 82706 Asian low stalled in a double top at 84475/84505 across the London-NY transition. The 14:00 UTC bar broke the 84114 neckline and ema20 despite the soft JOLTS print, with USD firm on 5.2%+ yields. Price is pausing just above the 83828 session low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-NY leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and ATR(14) is about 230 USD.
Support: 83,828.00, 83,747.00, 83,342.00
Resistance: 84,114.00, 84,316.00, 84,505.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 84114 neckline negates the double top read
A break of the 83828 session low and 38.2% fib exposes the 83747 swing low
Loss of the 83747 swing low puts the 83342 rally base in play
Reclaiming the 84316 prior high reopens the 84505 session high
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC, including Williams at 18:00 and Waller at 19:00, could materially shift this read
14:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 46 · price 83,883.62
Double top at 84,505, neckline broken; lower high at 84,430.
BTC climbed from the 82,706 Asian low through London into an 84,505 double top around the NY open. Supply capped it there, and price broke the 84,114 neckline and the rising trendline into the 14:00 UTC JOLTS/confidence data. It is now testing the 83,844 NY low, just above EMA50, with the 38.2% fib of the rally near 83,818.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,747 swing low extends the double-top breakdown toward the 83,540 Asian high and the 50% fib near 83,605
Reclaim of psych 84k and the 84,114 neckline would negate the breakdown read
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00) could materially shift this read; ADP/PCE tomorrow 12:15–12:30 UTC
London broke above the Asian range top near 83540 at 06:00 UTC and has printed higher lows at 83747 (london low) and 83994 (swing low). Rallies have stalled near the 84505 session high, where the 13:30 UTC bar rejected. Price sits at 84251, just under the 84315 prior high and above EMA20 near 84150, going into the 14:00 UTC JOLTS print. RSI(14) is 57 and ATR(14) is about $203.
Support: 83,993.50, 83,746.77
Resistance: 84,315.15, 84,504.94
What it said to watch
JOLTS (f/c 7.23M) and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 83994 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 83747 london low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia low to session high move, would end the higher-low structure
Further rejection at the 84505 session high with closes back under the 84315 prior high points to a stalling range; a close above 84505 extends the higher-high sequence
Higher lows since the Asian low; session high rejected early NY.
BTC has built higher lows since the 82,706 Asian low. London cleared yesterday's 84,315 prior high, and early NY printed a session high at 84,505. The 13:30 UTC bar was rejected there and wicked to the 84,000 psych level before recovering to 84,196, holding the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 53.
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, 15 minutes out. A firm print with a stronger USD could materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 83,910 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline. The London low at 83,747 is the next swing below, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high move.
A close back above the 84,315 prior high puts the 84,505 session high back in play.
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Williams and Waller later) could extend volatility beyond the current ATR.
The Tue rally broke the 82706–83274 Asian range ahead of London and built higher lows at 83747, then 83911 (the latest higher low), before clearing the 84316 prior high to a 84475 session high. The 12:00 UTC dip found demand at the 84114 swing low, and the prior high is now being retested as support into the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and no macro news of its own beyond the US rates backdrop.
Support: 84,316.00, 84,114.00, 83,911.00
Resistance: 84,475.00, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fed speakers through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via USD and yields
M15 close back below the 84316 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 84114 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and the rising-low chain
Close above the 84475 session high opens the path toward the 85000 psych level
13:17 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 57 · price 84,333.13
HH/HL chain; London broke above yesterday's high, now retesting it.
Off the 82706 Asia-hours low, London broke yesterday's 84315 prior high and printed a session high at 84475. Higher lows at 83747, 83911 and 84114 keep the rising trendline intact. Price is holding just above the prior high into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 57 and BTC trading as a US-rates proxy ahead of JOLTS.
Support: 84,315.00, 84,114.00, 83,911.00
Resistance: 84,475.00, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 84315 prior high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 84114 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, with the 83911 higher low and trendline next
Close above the 84475 session high extends the HH sequence toward the 85000 round number
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Williams 18:00 and Waller 19:00, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the Asian range break; holding above broken prior high.
BTC broke above the Asian range at 06:00 UTC and built a higher-low chain through London (83747, then the 83911 higher low, then the 84114 swing low) along rising support. It cleared the 84315 prior high to a 84475 session high. Early NY is consolidating just above that prior high with RSI(14) near 62. There is no crypto-specific driver, so price is trading off US rates into JOLTS.
Support: 84,315.00, 84,114.00, 83,911.00
Resistance: 84,475.00, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84315 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 84114 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Close above the 84475 session high opens the path toward the 85000 round number
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) remarks keep the rates-driven risk live through NY hours
HH/HL chain from Asia low; prior high broken, now being retested.
BTC has built higher lows since the 82706 Asia low. The 84315 prior high capped the first two London pushes, then gave way late in the London session, but the 84475 session high has turned back three attempts and price is now retesting 84315. There is no BTC-specific news in the feed, so price is tracking yields and USD ahead of JOLTS, with RSI(14) near 65, not stretched.
Support: 84,114.37, 83,910.59, 83,746.77
Resistance: 84,315.15, 84,474.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84475 session high extends the HH chain into the NY session
A break of the 84114 swing low would mark the 84315 breakout as a false break, putting the 83911 higher low and the rising-lows trendline in focus
Loss of the 83747 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and deepens the retracement of the Asia low-to-high move
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak through Waller at 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 62 · price 84,180.29
HH/HL chain since Asian low, rejection above 84,316 prior high.
Price broke out of the Asian range at 06:00 UTC and has built higher lows through London. It cleared the 84,316 prior high to a session high at 84,475 at 12:00 UTC, but the 12:15 bar closed back below it at 84,180. RSI(14) is near 62 as USD firms on 10Y yields at 2007 highs ahead of JOLTS.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,316 prior high reinstates the breakout toward the 84,475 session high; staying below it confirms the rejection
Break of the 83,911 swing low and the higher-lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain, exposing the 83,747 higher low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC (Waller last), could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia low, breakout above 84,316 prior high now being retested.
BTC left the 82,706–83,274 Asian range early in London and has since built higher lows at 83,747 and 83,911. It cleared the 84,316 prior high to a 84,475 session high and is now retesting that breakout level into the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 64, and a firm USD on high yields is the backdrop ahead of JOLTS.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,316 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 83,911 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline chain
Acceptance above the 84,475 session high extends the leg off the Asian low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into NY open · RSI 66 · price 84,337.12
HH/HL chain from Asia low; London broke above the 84,315 prior high.
Price has climbed steadily from the 82,706 Asia low. The Asian range broke higher at 06:00 UTC, and London then cleared the 84,315 prior high (Monday NY and 08:15 UTC tops) to a session high at 84,475. The latest bar is back near that prior high, and higher lows at 83,747 (swing low) and 83,911 keep the HH/HL chain intact into the NY open, with RSI(14) at ~66 and no extreme.
What it said to watch
Hold of the 84,315 prior high confirms the retest; an M15 close back below it reopens the 83,911 higher low
Break under the 83,747 swing low ends the HH/HL chain and the higher lows trendline
Session high at 84,475 and the 84,500 round number are the next test for rejection or break
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read. The USD is bid near 2-month highs and the 10Y is at 2007 highs
Higher lows under a flat 84300–84316 cap after an Asian range break.
BTC broke above the 82706–83540 Asian range late in Asia (asian high now below) and has built higher lows at 83747 and the 83910 swing low through London, but the 84300–84316 session high has capped price three times since yesterday's NY session. RSI(14) ~66 is firm, not stretched. With no BTC-specific news, price is tracking USD and Fed tone into the NY session; the 38.2% of the rally fib sits near the 83747 higher low.
Support: 83,746.77, 83,540.00
Resistance: 84,316.15, 84,500.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84316 session high breaks the flat cap and opens the 84500 round number
Failure to hold the 83910 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 83747 higher low
Loss of 83747 puts the 83540 asian high retest in play
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 83747, capped by triple high at 84300–84316.
London broke out of the Asian range, from the 82706 low to the 83356 asian high, and ran to 84316. That matched yesterday's NY high, and the 84300–84316 range top has now rejected three times. Mid-London, price is compressing between a lower high at 84147 and a higher low at 83910. The 83747 swing low held near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg, with RSI neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 83,746.77, 83,356.20
Resistance: 84,147.33, 84,316.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84316 range top breaks the triple-high cap
Loss of the 83910 higher low puts the 83747 swing low and 38.2% fib back in play
Failure below 83747 exposes the 83356 asian high
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from Musalem and Bowman, could materially shift this read
London range 83747–84316, lower highs since 10:00 UTC.
BTC broke above the 82706–83274 Asian range at 06:00 UTC and reached 84316 early in the London session. That is the triple test of the 84300s after Monday's NY high at 84315, and each touch has been rejected; a lower high at 84197 now sits under it, with price near 83990, just above EMA20 (~83890), and RSI(14) neutral at ~54. No BTC-specific catalyst; a firm USD and a 10Y above 5.2% remain the backdrop.
Support: 83,746.77
Resistance: 84,197.28, 84,316.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84316 triple test breaks the London range top
Reclaim of the 84197 lower high needed to neutralise the fading highs
Loss of the 83910 swing low, then the 83747 higher low, opens the 50% fib near 83511
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the Asian low, capped by twin highs at 84,310.
BTC climbed from the 82,706 Asian low through London, but twin highs at 84,316/84,309 matched yesterday's 84,315 peak and capped the move. Price is holding the 83,975 micro low with RSI(14) near 53. The 83,747 London low sits near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg and is the neckline of a potential double top.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84,310 twin highs invalidates the double-top read and exposes the 84,500 round number
A break of the 83,747 London low confirms a lower low and puts the 83,342 rally base in view
Losing the 83,975 micro low, with EMA20 near 83,900, would break the London higher-low chain
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus the Fedspeak slate from Musalem at 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read with the USD firm on 10Y yields at 5.27%
Higher lows off Asian low, capped at 84,316 prior high.
BTC rallied off the Asian low at 82,706 from 06:00 UTC but has been rejected three times at the 84,300–84,316 prior high (yesterday's NY high plus two London tests), with price now back near the ema20 around 83,880. The 09:15 UTC swing low at 83,747 held above the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and a firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing is capping follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84,316 prior high breaks the triple-tested cap
Failure to hold the 83,747 swing low sets a lower low and exposes the 83,342 break base of the 06:00 UTC rally
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read
10:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 58 · price 84,107.38
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped at 84,300–84,316.
London session is holding a higher-low sequence off the 82,706 Asian low, but the 84,300–84,316 session high has now capped price three times since yesterday's NY session, the latest rejection at 10:00 UTC. RSI(14) sits near 58 and ATR(14) is about 17,150 pips (~$171), with price above both EMAs and the 84,045 pullback low holding. There is no BTC-specific catalyst; the firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing is the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,316 session high breaks the three-touch cap and opens the 84,500 round number
Loss of the 84,045 pullback low puts the 83,747 swing low and higher-low trendline in play
A break below the 83,747 swing low ends the higher-low chain; fib 50% of the Asian low-to-high leg sits at 83,511
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Musalem (11:30 UTC) and Bowman (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
10:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, capped at prior high · RSI 62 · price 84,197.28
Higher lows from Asian low 82,706; highs flat at 84,310–84,316.
A pre-London push at 06:30 UTC cleared the Asian high near 83,540. London then ran into Monday's NY prior high at 84,316. Buyers held the 83,747 swing low on the 09:15 dip, and a second test at 10:00 stalled at 84,309. There is no BTC-specific news, so price is tracking Fed tone and yields, with RSI(14) at 62 and rising support intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,316 prior high breaks the triple-test cap and opens the 84,500 round number
Failure to hold the 83,747 swing low breaks rising support and ends the higher-low sequence
A return below the 83,540 Asian high marks the breakout as failed
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Musalem at 11:30 UTC and afternoon Fedspeak, could shift the read at the NY open
10:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 65 · price 84,218.25
Higher lows since the Asian low; flat top at 84316.
The 06:00 UTC breakout bar took price out of the Asian range (82706–83220), and London has since built a higher-lows chain back to the 84316 prior high. That level capped yesterday's NY session and saw a rejection at 08:00 UTC; mid-London is now retesting it, with the 83747 swing low holding near the 38.2% fib even as the USD stays firm on a 5.27% 10Y.
Support: 83,746.77, 83,342.22, 82,705.92
Resistance: 84,316.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84316 prior high breaks the flat top and extends the higher-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 83747 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 83342 breakout bar
A move back below the breakout bar returns price to the Asian range, with the Asian low at 82706 as the floor
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
09:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, capped at prior high · RSI 58 · price 83,974.52
Range 83747–84316 after late-Asia breakout; twin highs overhead.
The Asia rally from 82706 broke out of the 83342 Asia base, a move made despite a firm USD on 5.27% 10Y yields. It then stalled at the London high of 84316, matching yesterday's NY high of 84315 to form twin highs, and the rejection held a shallow ~35% retrace at the 83747 London low. Price is back near 83975, just below the 84122 minor high, with RSI(14) neutral at 58.
Support: 83,747.00, 83,342.00
Resistance: 84,122.00, 84,316.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84316 twin highs breaks the intraday cap
Failure to hold the 83747 London low marks a lower high and exposes the 83342 Asia base
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
09:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled at prior high · RSI 54 · price 83,842.67
Asian range broken higher, London rejected at the prior high, holding higher lows.
The 06:00 UTC break of the Asian range (82706–83274) carried through London to 84316, stalling exactly at yesterday's NY prior high before a 280-point rejection back to 83840. Mid-London, price is holding above the 83747 swing low and the 84,000 round number caps the bounce, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 against a firm-USD, 5%+ yields backdrop.
Support: 83,746.77, 83,274.29
Resistance: 84,316.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84316 prior high breaks the twin-top cap and invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 83747 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 83700, then the former asian high at 83274
A reclaim of the 84,000 round number returns focus to the prior high
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read via yields and USD
09:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 60 · price 83,756.76
Asian range breakout, double top at 84316, pullback in London.
BTC broke above the 82706–83540 Asian range at 06:00 UTC. London then extended it to 84316, where a rejection at yesterday's 84315 high left a double top. Price is pulling back toward the 38.2% fib and ema20 near 83700, with RSI(14) at 59, against a firm USD and 10Y yields near 5.27%.
Support: 83,700.00, 83,540.00
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,316.00
What it said to watch
Hold of the 38.2% fib near 83700 keeps the breakout structure intact; a break below the asian high at 83540 puts price back inside the Asian range
Recovery through the 84000 round number re-tests the double top; a close above 84316 invalidates the rejection read
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 57 · price 83,837.67
Rejection at double top after Asian-range breakout.
A 06:00 UTC surge out of the Asian range carried BTC into Monday's 84,315 high at 08:15 UTC. Price poked a dollar above it and the next bar shed about $280, leaving a double top as rates-driven USD firmness caps risk. Price is holding the London low at 83,784 above EMA20 with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR near $195, while the 38.2% retracement of the Asian rally sits near 83,700.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 84,000 round number and the 84,122 swing high reopens a test of the 84,316 double top
Loss of the 83,784 London low exposes the 50% retracement near 83,510 and the 83,274 Asian high
A break below the 82,706 Asian low would erase the whole Asian rally
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could shift the read via yields and USD
08:47 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asia low, stalling at prior high · RSI 63 · price 83,848.66
HH/HL chain off the Asia low; double top at 84,316 followed by a sharp rejection bar.
The rebound from the 82,706 Asia low broke above the 83,540 Asia high just before London open. London then stalled at 84,316, a dollar above the 84,315 prior high, and the next bar gave back about 285, leaving an intraday double top. Price now sits just above the 83,793 London low, with ema20 near 83,690 aligned with the 38.2% fib of the Asia low-to-high leg. RSI(14) is cooling to 63 and ATR(14) is about 205.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 84,316 prior high voids the double top read
The 84,000 round number is capping price after the rejection; reclaiming it would ease the stall
Failure to hold the 83,793 London low exposes ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 83,690, then the 83,540 Asia high
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC plus JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, against a firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing, could shift this read
08:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at prior high · RSI 74 · price 84,076.41
Asian range break, higher lows, capped at 84316.
BTC broke out of the Asian range with a 460-point bar from the 83342 breakout base, then held higher lows into early London. That happened even with USD firm on hawkish Fed repricing. The first push at the London open matched yesterday's 84315 prior high to the dollar and was rejected, with RSI(14) near 74 and the 83894 pullback low now the nearest shelf.
Support: 83,894.00, 83,770.00, 83,342.00
Resistance: 84,316.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84316 prior high breaks the double-test cap and extends the leg
Loss of 83894 pullback low puts the 83770 fib 38.2 of the breakout leg in play
Reversal back through 83342 breakout base returns price to the Asian range
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 76 · price 84,034.46
Asian range broken higher at 06:00 UTC; tight higher-low chain into early London.
BTC cleared the Asian range (82706–83540) with a ~$460 bar at 06:00 UTC ahead of the London open. Early London has ground out higher lows along rising support, holding just above the 84000 round number. The 84122 session high is capping, with yesterday's NY prior high at 84315 above. RSI(14) is warm near 76, and the move came with no BTC-specific headline against a firm USD and yields backdrop.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,895.00, 83,540.00
Resistance: 84,122.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84122 session high puts the 84315 prior high in play
Loss of rising support and the 83895 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Deeper pullback targets the 83540 asian high, near 38.2% of the asian low–session high leg
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Intraday up-leg inside a 24h range · RSI 72 · price 84,023.47
Asian range broken higher, higher lows into London open.
BTC cleared the Asian high at 83540 in one 06:00 UTC bar. It has printed higher lows through the London open, stalling at the 84122 session high with RSI(14) near 72. Monday's 84315 prior high and a lower highs line cap the top of the 82566–84315 range, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a firm USD in the background.
Support: 83,790.00, 83,540.00
Resistance: 84,122.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84122 session high exposes the 84315 prior high and a test of the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 83790 london low breaks the higher-low chain. The asian high at 83540 sits near the 38.2% of the asian rally fib
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain since 06:00 UTC.
The early-Europe push broke the Asian range high at 83274 and London has extended it to a session high at 84122, with the 83673 pullback low holding as a higher low. RSI(14) is near 73 and price sits under Monday's NY prior high at 84315. The move lacks a BTC-specific catalyst while USD stays firm on 5%+ long-end yields.
Support: 83,672.85, 83,274.29, 82,705.92
Resistance: 84,122.36, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84315 prior high clears Monday's NY session top
Loss of the 83673 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain; a return inside the Asian high at 83274 turns the range break into a false break
Asian low at 82706 is the base of the whole overnight structure
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC (Musalem) and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Asian range broken higher at 06:00 UTC; HH/HL chain into early London.
A single $460 bar at 06:00 UTC cleared the Asian range. It left an impulse base at 83342 and a breakout top at 83818, and higher lows have held above that level into the London open. Price is now stalling just under the 83985–83995 prior high, below 84000, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched. There is no BTC-specific catalyst, so the move is tracking US macro tone against a firm USD.
Support: 83,672.85, 83,342.22
Resistance: 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83995 prior high and 84000 opens the path toward the 84315 yday high
Loss of the 83818 breakout level exposes the 83673 swing low
Failure to hold the 83673 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the 83342 impulse base (50% fib) back in play
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Monday NY low, Asian range broken higher.
BTC cleared the Asian high at 83575 with a 06:00 UTC impulse and is testing the 83995 prior high in the first half hour of London, with RSI(14) near 72. Higher lows at 82566, 82706 and 82896 remain intact despite a firm USD and 10y yields at 2007 highs, and the 84315 NY high sits above.
Support: 83,575.00, 83,340.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,995.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83995 prior high exposes the 84315 NY high
A slip back below the 83575 Asian high undoes the breakout, with the 50% fib at 83340 next
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 82706 Asian low ends the higher-low sequence
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could shift this read via yields and USD
A late-Asia impulse bar at 06:00 UTC lifted price from 83342 to 83819 and cleared the Asian range high at 83540. Price then extended to a session high of 83940 into the London open, with RSI(14) near 65 after cooling. The overnight structure holds a higher low at 82896 above the 82706 Asian low, and in the absence of BTC-specific news, flows are tracking Fed tone and US yields.
Support: 83,540.00, 83,342.22, 82,895.71
Resistance: 84,315.15
What it said to watch
A close back below the asian high at 83540 would return price to the overnight range and undo the range break
Clearance of the 83940 session high opens Monday's NY prior high at 84315
Loss of the 83342 breakout bar low brings the 50% asia rally fib (~83323) and the 82896 higher low into play
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
A single-bar late-Asia breakout from the 83342 breakout bar cleared the asia high at 83540 and printed a session high at 83883 ahead of London open. Rising lows from the 82706 asia low held through Asia. RSI(14) is near 74 and ATR is about $175. There is no BTC-specific news, and the move comes despite a firm USD and 10y yields above 5%.
Support: 83,540.00, 83,342.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,883.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 83540 asia high puts price back inside the Asian range and undercuts the breakout
Clearance of 83883 session high opens yesterday's 84315 prior high
Pullback through the 83342 breakout bar base and the 50% asia rally fib near 83294 would erase most of the move
Break of the asia rising lows or of the 82706 asia low reverts to the prior lower structure
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, extended into London open · RSI 76 · price 83,823.69
Asian range break higher; higher low at 82896 above the 82706 Asian low.
A 06:00 UTC impulse bar cleared the Asian high at 83540 and the breakout base near 83274. It lifted price into the 61.8% retracement of the 84315 NY high to 82706 Asian low drop, with no BTC-specific catalyst and the USD still firm. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme. The next test is the 83995 prior high, the round-number area under yesterday's NY high.
Support: 83,540.00, 83,274.00, 82,706.00
Resistance: 83,995.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83540 Asian high marks the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 83995 prior high opens the 84315 NY high
A move below the higher-low trendline and the 83274 breakout base shifts focus back to the 82706 Asian low
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Higher lows off Asian low; Asian range high broken, testing prior high.
Late in the Asia session, the 06:00 UTC bar cleared the Asian high at 83540 from a break base at 83356. Price is now pressing the prior high near 83800 from the NY-open spike, with RSI(14) near 72. The move follows a rising lows chain off the 82706 Asian low (82793, then a higher low at 82896), with no BTC-specific catalyst and US macro and Fedspeak as the backdrop.
Support: 83,540.00, 83,356.20, 82,895.71
Resistance: 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 83540 turns the range break into a false break
Acceptance above the prior high at 83800 opens the swing high at 83995 and the 24h high at 84315, where NY hours faded yesterday
Loss of the break base at 83356 exposes the rising lows trendline; a break under the higher low at 82896 ends the chain
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, plus JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Retracement of the asian low to high leg holding above its 50% near 83263 keeps the higher-low structure intact
06:04 UTC
Recovery off Asia low, higher highs forming · RSI 63 · price 83,347.21
HH/HL chain since 01:30 UTC, still inside Asian range.
Late Asia, ahead of the London open: BTC has built higher highs off the 82706 asian low and is testing the 38.2% fib of the 84315 24h high to 82706 drop near 83320. A 05:30 UTC sweep to 82896 under the 83005 higher low reversed within the bar. Price is back above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 63 and no stretch.
Support: 82,895.71, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,540.00, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83540 asian high breaks the overnight range and opens 83800 prior high
Loss of the 83005 higher low and the rising trendline unwinds the Asia recovery; 82896 sweep low then 82706 asian low next
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC; with USD firm and 10y yields above 5%, a hawkish read could shift this
05:47 UTC
Range, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 57 · price 83,192.38
Lower highs off 84315 NY peak; Asia higher lows from 82706.
Late Asia, ahead of London open: BTC has built higher lows off the 82706 asian low. It is capped at the 83274 swing high, just under the 38.2% fib of the 84315–82706 NY decline. The 05:30 UTC wick to 82896 was rejected and closed back above 83200, with price sitting between EMA20 and EMA50 as USD strength on 5%+ yields keeps a lid on the rebound.
Support: 82,895.71, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,274.29, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83274 swing high and the 38.2% fib at 83320 opens the 83540 asian high
Loss of the 83005 higher low, then the 82896 wick low, puts the 82706 asian low back in play
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS / Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a broader range · RSI 58 · price 83,196.38
Higher lows since the 82,706 Asia low; 83,540 lower high still intact.
The Asia session drop from the 83,540 Asia high bottomed at the 82,706 Asia low at 01:45 UTC. Price has since carved a chain of rising lows up to an 83,274 session high, stalling around the 61.8% fib of that drop and the EMA50 as London open approaches. A firm USD and a 10y yield near 5.27% remain the backdrop, with RSI(14) near 58 and far from extremes.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,274 session high and the 61.8% fib opens the 83,540 Asia high
Break of the rising lows line and the 83,005 higher low returns focus to the 82,706 Asia low, then the 82,566 prior low
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read via yields and the USD
Higher lows off 82706 Asian low, pressing 83220 swing high.
The Asian drop from the 83540 Asian high to the 82706 Asian low has been followed by a chain of higher lows since 03:15 UTC. Price now presses the 83220 swing high, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of that drop and a flat EMA50 near 83200. RSI(14) is neutral at 51 and ATR(14) is about $157, with USD firm on Fed hike repricing.
Support: 83,005.59, 82,705.92
Resistance: 83,220.35, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83220 swing high clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the 83540 Asian high
Break of the 83006 higher low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 82706 Asian low
London open is under 2h away; Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift the read while USD stays bid on hike repricing
Lower highs off 84315 NY high; Asian range 82706–83220 with higher lows.
The fade from the 84,315 NY high produced lower highs at 83,588 and 83,575, then an Asian low at 82,706 as the USD stayed bid on 5%+ yields. Late Asia is building higher lows under the 83,220 Asian high, with price between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the NY high–Asian low drop.
Support: 83,005.59, 82,705.92, 82,609.03
Resistance: 83,220.35, 83,574.96
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83220 asian high opens the 38.2% fib near 83320 and the 83575 lower high
Loss of the 83006 micro low and the Asia higher-lows line returns focus to the 82706 asian low, then the 82609 london low
London open at 07:00 UTC typically breaks the Asian range one way
Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read via yields and the USD
04:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 55 · price 83,089.50
Lower highs from the NY high; Asian range 82790–83220.
The NY-session spike to the 84315 ny high faded into a chain of lower highs. The 00:30 UTC drop from the 83540 lower high set a 82706 swing low, with a firm USD and 10y yields at 2007 highs as the backdrop. Late Asia is compressing between the 82790 asian low and the 83220 asian high, price mid-range near 83090 and still under the 38.2% fib at ~83320 ahead of London open.
Support: 82,790.00, 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,220.00, 83,540.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83220 asian high and the 38.2% fib (~83320) puts the 83540 lower high back in play
Loss of the 82790 asian low exposes the 82706 swing low, then yesterday's 82566 day low
Only a reclaim of the 84315 ny high would break the lower-high sequence
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) and Fedspeak from Musalem 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP Wed 12:15 UTC is the larger test
04:31 UTC
Short-term recovery inside a lower 24h range · RSI 55 · price 83,134.45
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped at 61.8% fib.
Late Asia session. Price is rebuilding from the 00:45–01:30 UTC drop off the Asian high at 83540 to the Asian low at 82706, as the USD stays firm with 10y yields at 2007 highs. Rising lows at 82793 and 82952 are lifting price toward the 61.8% fib at 83220, which capped the 04:15 UTC bar; price is holding near the 50% retracement, above EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 82,951.65, 82,705.92, 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,220.35, 83,540.00, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 83220 opens a retest of the Asian high at 83540
Break below the 82952 higher low voids the rising-lows line and exposes the Asian low at 82706, then the 24h low at 82566
A move through 84315, the 24h high, would be needed to shift structure out of the prior-day range
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus a heavy Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read; London open is about 2.5h out
04:17 UTC
Downtrend of lower highs, now compressing · RSI 47 · price 83,077.51
Lower highs since NY peak 84315; tight range 82790–83134 above asian low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the NY session peak at 84,315. Asia broke down from the asian high at 83,540 to an asian low at 82,706, and price is now coiling in an 82,790–83,134 range below the fib 38.2 at 83,320, with a firm USD and 2007-high US yields keeping rallies capped. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits on a flat EMA20, with no momentum in either direction late in the Asia session.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,134 range top opens the fib 38.2 at 83,320, then the asian high at 83,540
Failure to hold the asian low at 82,706 extends the lower-low sequence toward the day low at 82,566
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY session high; Asian consolidation near lows.
Rejection from the 84,315 NY session high left a chain of lower highs, and Asia broke the 83,020 overnight low to set an Asian low at 82,706. Price is now consolidating between 82,706 and the 83,134 range top, below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 39, while a firm USD and 10y yields at 2007 highs weigh on risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,134 range top and the lower highs trendline (~83,170) breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 83,540 Asian high next
Loss of the 82,706 Asian low exposes the 82,566 prior low from Monday's NY session
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 41 · price 83,046.54
Lower highs from 84,315; Asian range 82,790–83,135.
After the NY rejection at the 84,315 day high, the Asia session broke down from 83,455 to an 82,706 asia low and has since held an 82,790–83,135 range, with RSI(14) near 41 and price just under EMA20. Firm USD and 10y yields at 2007 highs on hawkish Fedspeak frame the drift, with no BTC-specific catalyst.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,134 asia high and the 38.2% fib near 83,320 would break the Asian range higher and test the descending lower-highs line near 83,540 (lower high)
Failure to hold the 82,706 asia low exposes the 82,566 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Fedspeak from Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via USD and yields
03:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late in the Asia session · RSI 43 · price 83,045.54
Lower highs from the 84315 NY peak; Asian base range 82706–83134.
The Asia session gave back the NY rebound, sliding from the 83540 asia high to the 82706 asia low before basing in an 82793 range base to 83134 micro high band. The latest push to 83134 met rejection, and lower highs since the 84315 NY peak remain intact against a firmer USD on 5%+ Treasury yields.
Support: 82,793.00, 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,134.00, 83,320.00, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83134 micro high breaks the Asian base range and brings the 83320 fib 38.2 and the lower highs line into play
Failure to hold the 82793 range base exposes the 82706 asia low, then the 82566 prior low from the NY session
A reclaim of the 83540 asia high invalidates the lower-high sequence off the NY peak
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 34 · price 82,825.79
Lower highs from 84,315; tight base above asian low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 84,315 NY-session peak. Early Asia broke down from the asian high near 83,540 to an asian low at 82,706 as the USD stayed bid on Fed-hike repricing and 10y yields at 2007 highs. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing in an 82,800–83,080 band under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34, and the range top is capping bounces along the lower-highs trendline.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 82,706 exposes the 24h low at 82,566
M15 close above the range top at 83,081 and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Asian high at 83,540 sits near the 50% retracement of the 84,315–82,706 decline and is the next area to watch for rejection or break
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Short-term downtrend, basing after Asia drop · RSI 37 · price 82,905.70
Lower highs since NY peak; Asian range broken lower, now consolidating.
Asia broke below the early 83,270–83,540 range at 00:45 UTC and slid to an asian low of 82,706. The dollar stayed firm on Fed-hike repricing and 10y yields at 2007 highs. Since then price has held an 82,800–83,080 box, and the bounce high at 83,081 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Asia drop, just under the lower-highs line from the 84,315 NY peak.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,081 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and puts the 83,540 asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 82,706 asian low extends the lower-low leg toward the 82,566 ny low
Fed speakers from Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could shift this read via USD and yields
02:47 UTC
Short-term downtrend, basing after Asia drop · RSI 41 · price 83,020.57
Asia broke below Monday's late-NY range floor; lower highs, retesting underside near 83080.
Asia session broke below Monday's late-NY 83020–83590 range, sliding from the 83540 asian high to the 82706 asian low before basing. Price is now pressing the 38.2% retrace and local cap near 83080 with RSI(14) near 41. BTC is drifting with a firm USD on 5.27% 10y yields, with no crypto-specific catalyst.
Support: 82,705.92, 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83080 local cap and the 50% retrace (~83123) reopens the old range toward the 83540 asian high
Failure to hold the 82706 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 82566 monday low
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84315, range broken in Asia, basing above 82706.
Lower highs since the 84315 NY peak ended in a break of the 83020–83590 overnight range early in the Asia session. The drop stalled at the 82706 session low, and price is now basing at 82840–83080, below the 83022 broken low and both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 39 against a firm USD backdrop on 5.27% 10y yields.
Support: 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,022.00, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83022 broken low weakens the range-break read
Failure to hold the 82706 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 24h low at 82566
A recovery that stalls below the 38.2% fib at ~83321 keeps the decline intact
Close above the descending trendline and the 83540 lower high voids the lower-high sequence
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off NY spike · RSI 39 · price 82,969.63
Lower-high chain from 84315; Asia printed a lower low at 82706, small bounce now.
The NY spike to 84315 has faded into a chain of lower highs, and the Asian high at 83540 rejected price again. Asia then broke to a lower low at 82706 as the USD stays firm on 5.27% 10y yields. Price is bouncing off the Asian low with RSI(14) near 38 and is capped so far at the 83030 bounce high, with the 82566 24h low below.
Support: 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,030.00, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83030 bounce high would stall the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower highs trendline and the 83540 asian high would invalidate the downtrend read
Loss of the 82706 asian low exposes the 82566 24h low from the NY session
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 84,315; post-NY range floor broken in Asia.
The Asia session broke the 83,022 range floor of the post-NY range. It printed a session low at 82,706 and extended the lower-high sequence from the 84,315 NY peak. With no BTC-specific news and a firm USD backdrop, price sits below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41, holding just under the 23.6% retracement of the 84,315–82,706 leg.
What it said to watch
Break below the 82,706 session low exposes the 82,566 monday low
M15 close back above the 83,022 range floor negates the range break
The lower-highs trendline from 84,315 now runs near 83,400, beneath the 83,575 range top. Clearing both ends the lower-high sequence
Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Monday NY high; overnight 83350–83540 range broken lower in early Asia.
Early Asia Tuesday broke the 83350–83540 overnight range and the 83022 broken low. Price has now retraced about 85% of Monday's 82566–84315 NY swing, below the fib 78.6 at 82940, and sits just above the 82729 session low. Highs keep stepping lower under the descending trendline from 84315, with a firm USD and 10y yields at 2007 highs weighing on risk; RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,609.03, 82,566.07
Resistance: 82,940.00, 83,021.57, 83,540.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82940 fib 78.6 and the 83022 broken low would reclaim the NY swing retracement
Failure at the 82729 session low exposes the 82609 london low and the 82566 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 83540 asia high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, could reset this read into London and NY
Lower highs pressing on a flat 83,020–83,060 swing low floor.
Early Asia session saw a rejection at the 83,540 session high, and a 350-dollar drop at 00:45 UTC put price on the 83,020–83,060 swing low floor. That leaves more than 61.8% of the 82,566–84,315 NY rally retraced. Lower highs since the 84,315 day high are compressing into that floor, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,020 swing low breaks the floor and exposes the 82,566 day low
Reclaim of the 83,540 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 84,315 day high back in view
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus six Fed speakers on Tuesday, could shift this read via yields and the dollar
00:47 UTC
Sideways after NY whipsaw, lower highs compressing · RSI 49 · price 83,381.17
Lower highs from 84315 against higher lows off 83021; tightening range 83267–83590.
Monday's NY session whipsawed from the 82566 Monday low to the 84315 Monday high. Since then, lower highs have compressed price toward 83590, near the 38.2% fib of the drop to the 83021 swing low. The early Asia session is holding a higher low at the 83267 Asia low, with price just under EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) flat near 49. There is no BTC-specific driver; price is trading off USD and Fed tone.
Support: 83,267.30, 82,566.07
Resistance: 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83590 lower high clears the fib 38.2% cap and exposes the 83995 swing high
Break of the 83267 asia low and the rising lows line re-exposes the 83021 swing low, then the 82566 monday low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (Tue 14:00 UTC) plus six Fed speakers could materially shift this read; ADP Wed 12:15 UTC is the high-impact print
Overnight range 83022–83588, higher low at 83267 inside it.
Early Asia session is trading inside an 83022–83588 range built after the NY high at 84315 faded. The rebound off the range low is stalling near the 38.2% retrace at 83515, with a higher low printed at 83267. Monday's swings tracked hawkish Fedspeak and Iran headlines moving the dollar, and RSI(14) sits flat near 51.
Support: 83,267.30, 83,021.57, 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,588.00, 84,000.00, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83588 range top invalidates the range read and opens the 84000 round number
Failure to hold the 83267 higher low puts the 83022 range low back in play
A break of the 83022 range low exposes the 82566 monday low
The 38.2% retrace of the NY high-to-range low drop at 83515 is capping the rebound; a hold above it shifts focus to the 50% near 83668
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus six Fed speakers later Tuesday could materially shift this read
00:19 UTC
Sideways after NY fade, lower highs · RSI 47 · price 83,420.13
83020–83590 range since late NY, highs stepping lower.
Early Asia finds BTC flat at 83420, on the 50% fib of the 82566–84315 NY swing, with EMA20/50 converged around 83430 and RSI(14) neutral near 47. Since the late-NY fade from the 84315 NY high, price has held an 83020–83590 range, with highs stepping lower under the range top while USD stays firm on 10y yields at 2007 highs.
Support: 83,370.00, 83,021.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,588.00, 84,315.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83588 range top reopens the path to the 84315 NY high
Loss of the 83370 micro low exposes the 83021 range low; a break there puts the 82566 NY low back in view
Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC onward), JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the range
00:05 UTC
Range after NY rebound faded, lower highs · RSI 49 · price 83,403.15
Compression, lower highs vs flat 83020 lows.
NY hours swept the London low to print the 82566 Monday low, then rebounded to the 84315 NY high. Since then price has faded into an 83020–83590 range under a descending trendline and sits just below flat, converged EMA20/EMA50 at the Asia open. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and firm USD on 5.27% 10y yields is adding no fresh impulse.
Support: 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,587.95, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83020 late NY low breaks the flat base and exposes the 82566 Monday low
Close above the 83588 lower high clears the descending trendline and reopens the 84315 NY high
Price holding near the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib (~83234) keeps the range read intact
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Tuesday Fedspeak could materially shift this read