BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:05 UTC
Range after Monday's drop, momentum neutral · RSI 45 · price 83,571.96
Contracting range: lower highs from 84,970, higher lows from 82,566.
BTC printed the 84,970 week high in Sunday's session. Monday's slide into the first hour of NY then set the 82,566 week low, and H1 has since compressed into lower highs and higher lows, with the 84,505 tue high rejected during NY hours despite the soft JOLTS print, in line with a firm dollar. Price sits near 83,570 on a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50), between the fib 38.2 (83,485) and fib 50% (83,768) of the week's drop, with RSI(14) near 45.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,505 tue high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the consolidation and exposes the 84,970 week high
Loss of the 82,864 higher low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 82,566 week low back in play
Acceptance above the fib 50% at 83,768 would extend the rebound; slipping back under the fib 38.2 at 83,485 keeps price in the lower half of the range
Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read, with a whipsaw possible across the 15-minute gap
Monday's slide from the sunday high at 84970 bottomed at the monday low of 82566 into the NY session. Since then H1 has printed rising lows at 82706 and 82864 against lower highs capped at 84315–84505, a tightening range. Tuesday's London-session rally to the tuesday high at 84505 met rejection in the first hours of NY, and price now sits just under EMA(20) near 83540 and on the 38.2% fib of the sunday high–monday low leg at 83485, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s; there is no crypto-specific driver, and a firm USD on 2004-era yields frames the backdrop.
Support: 83,485.00, 82,864.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,540.00, 84,505.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising lows line near the tuesday low at 82864 exposes the monday low at 82566
H1 close above the tuesday high at 84505 breaks the lower highs line off the sunday high at 84970
Acceptance below the 38.2% fib at 83485 with EMA(20) at 83540 capping returns price to the lower half of the range
Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (f/c 3.3%, 12:30 UTC) are the likely catalyst for a resolution of the range; a hot print alongside DXY near 101.50 would pressure the rising lows
21:09 UTC
Sideways, compressing after Monday's drop · RSI 46 · price 83,571.96
Lower highs vs higher lows since Sunday's 84970 peak.
Since Sunday's 84970 week high, BTC has compressed inside Monday's 82566–84883 swing. Each rally has capped at a lower high, the latest at 84505, while higher lows formed at 82706 and 82864. Tuesday's London-to-early-NY push to 84505 reversed sharply in the first hour of NY as the JOLTS miss was overridden by a firm USD, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 83570, just under EMA(50) at 83640, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 83,570.00, 82,864.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,640.00, 84,505.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84505 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and the compression read
Failure to hold the 82864 higher low, then the 82566 week low, confirms a range break lower
Acceptance above EMA(50) at 83640 and the 50% retrace of Monday's drop at 83725 shifts the mid-range balance
A break of the 84970 week high would clear the Sunday peak and change the structure
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
20:06 UTC
Sideways after Monday selloff, EMAs flat · RSI 46 · price 83,525.02
Higher lows off the 82566 week low inside a 82566–84970 range, highs capped below 84505.
Sunday's climb to the 84970 sunday high unwound through Monday's Asia session. The selloff printed a week low at 82566 in NY hours, and since then the chart has built higher lows at 82706 and 82864 while highs stall below the 84505 tuesday high. That push reversed through the first hours of NY on Tuesday as the dollar stayed bid on 10Y yields above 5.2%, shrugging off the JOLTS miss; price is now back at the flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 83550, with RSI(14) at 46, sitting around the 38.2% retrace of the selloff and capped so far by the 83660 bounce high.
Support: 82,864.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,660.00, 84,505.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 83660 bounce high reopens the 84505 tuesday high
Break of the 82864 higher low breaches the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 82566 week low
Close above 84505 and the lower-highs line would shift the read toward the 84970 sunday high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wednesday (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
19:06 UTC
Sideways after Monday's drop, range contracting · RSI 53 · price 83,572.96
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 82,566–84,970.
BTC has rotated inside an 82,566–84,970 band since the Sunday–Monday drop. The sunday high at 84,970, Monday's 84,883 and the 84,505 tuesday high form lower highs, while the week low at 82,566, Tuesday's 82,706 and the 82,864 ny low form higher lows. Tuesday's NY-session slide from 84,505 came as the 10Y pushed above 5.2% and the USD firmed despite the JOLTS miss. The late bounce has put price back on the EMA20 near 83,560, just under the ema50 around 83,650, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema50 and the 84,052 61.8% level of the drop fib reopens the tuesday high at 84,505
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the sunday high at 84,970 would end the contracting-range read
Failure to hold the ny low at 82,864 and the higher-lows trendline puts the week low at 82,566 back in play
Waller at 19:00 UTC today and Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:06 UTC
Sideways after Monday's drop, below EMAs · RSI 47 · price 83,241.33
Higher lows from 82566 compressing against lower highs from 84884.
BTC broke down from the 84970 Sunday high in Monday's Asia session and has since held above the 82566 range low, printing higher lows on each dip beneath a lower-high line off Monday's 84884 open. Tuesday's push from London hours reached 84505, just past the 78.6% retracement of the Sunday-Monday drop, but met rejection into the NY session. Price slid back below EMA(20) near 83540 as the 10Y pushed above 5.2% despite the soft JOLTS print, and RSI(14) around 47 sits mid-range, consistent with the compression.
Support: 82,864.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,540.00, 84,505.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82864 tuesday low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 82566 range low
Recovery above EMA(20) near 83540, then through the 84505 tuesday high, breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 84970 sunday high
Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) tonight, then ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE (f/c 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC tomorrow, could materially shift this read
17:07 UTC
Range-bound, momentum rolling over · RSI 44 · price 82,981.61
82566–84505 range since Monday, compressing between rising lows and lower highs.
Sunday's push to the 84970 week high unwound through Monday's Asia session, and price has since held an 82566–84505 range. Rising lows sit at the 82566 week low (Monday NY) and the 82706 Tuesday Asia low, while lower highs run from 84970 to the 84505 tuesday high, so the range is compressing. Tuesday's rally stalled near the 78.6% retrace of the Sun–Mon drop and reversed back through EMA20 from the London-NY transition as USD firmed on 5.2%+ 10Y yields; the JOLTS miss did little to slow the move, and RSI(14) has slipped to the mid-40s near the 82864 session low.
Support: 82,863.74, 82,705.92, 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,510.00, 84,504.94, 84,970.42
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82864 session low and the 82706 asia low would put the 82566 week low and the rising lows line back in play
An H1 close below the 82566 week low breaks the range floor and the rising lows
A recovery above EMA20 near 83510, then the 84505 tuesday high, would challenge the lower highs line toward the 84970 week high
Fed speakers Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) today, then ADP and PCE from 12:15 UTC tomorrow, could materially shift this read
Compressing range: lower highs from Sunday's 84,970 week high, rising lows off Monday's 82,566.
Tuesday's recovery through the Asia and London sessions, from the 82,706 Asia low to the 84,505 Tuesday high, was almost fully unwound in the first NY hours. BTC dropped about 1,600 through the flat ema20/50 near 83,610 around the JOLTS and confidence releases, as firm USD and hike pricing outweighed the soft data. Price now sits on the rising-lows line at the 82,880 NY low, roughly 80% into the Tuesday rally fib, beneath a sequence of lower highs from Sunday's 84,970 week high. RSI(14) has eased to about 41, and both EMAs have gone flat, which fits compression inside the range rather than a trending leg.
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 82,880 NY low and the rising-lows line exposes the 82,706 Asia low and the 82,566 week low (range floor)
A move back above the ema20/50 near 83,610 would neutralise today's NY rejection, with the lower-highs line and the 84,505 Tuesday high capping above
Acceptance above the 84,970 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range read
Fed speakers today (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and tomorrow's ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
82566–84970 range; twin lows below, lower high at 84505.
BTC has traded inside an 82566–84970 range since Sunday's week high. Monday's Asia-to-NY selloff to the week low at 82566 and Tuesday's Asia low at 82706 formed twin lows, and Tuesday's London rally pushed past Monday's 84315 bounce high to the Tuesday high at 84505, near the 78.6% of the Sun-Mon fib. That break failed during NY hours, with the dollar firm on yields despite the JOLTS miss, dropping price back below the ema20/ema50 cluster near 83720, with RSI(14) back at ~49 and the fib 38.2% at 83485 the nearest shelf.
Support: 83,485.00, 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 84,505.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 cluster near 83720 would neutralise today's rejection
Failure to hold the fib 38.2% at 83485 exposes the Tuesday low at 82706 and the twin lows zone
H1 close below the week low at 82566 would invalidate the twin-lows read and mark a range break lower
Close above the Tuesday high at 84505 clears the lower-high line and reopens the week high at 84970
Fedspeak 15:00–19:00 UTC today and Wed ADP/PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia-to-NY sell-off from Sunday's 84,970 week high bottomed at the 82,566 week low. A second test at 82,706 overnight formed a double bottom. Tuesday's London-hours rally printed higher lows, reclaimed EMA(20) near 83,750 and is now pressing the 84,315 neckline, with supply capping so far at the 84,475 tuesday high near the 78.6% retracement. With no crypto-specific news in the feed, the swing is tracking US rate expectations while USD holds firm on hawkish Fed pricing.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,475 tuesday high confirms the neckline break and exposes the 84,970 week high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 84,050 and EMA(20) near 83,750 would turn the neckline test into a rejection
Break of the Tuesday higher lows trendline shifts focus back to the 82,566 week low; a close below it invalidates the double bottom
JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields, with ADP due Wed 12:15 UTC
12:05 UTC
Recovering, back above EMA20 after Monday selloff · RSI 63 · price 84,349.11
Monday's selloff from the 84,970 sunday high began in the Asia session and bottomed at the 82,566 monday low into the NY open. A higher low at 82,706 early Tuesday completed a double bottom, and a late-Asia push into the London open cleared the 84,315 neckline, the descending trendline and the 61.8% fib near 84,050. Price now holds above the 84,000 psych level and the ema20 near 83,725 with RSI(14) around 63, while the 84,475 tuesday high sits at the 78.6% retracement, with a firm USD and 10Y yields at 2007 highs giving no macro tailwind.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,475 tuesday high opens the 84,883 lower high and the 84,970 sunday high
Close back below the 84,000 psych level and ema20 (~83,725) would turn the neckline breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the higher low at 82,706 and the 82,566 monday low invalidates the double bottom
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC and ADP Wed 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Range after Monday drop, recovering · RSI 60 · price 84,012.48
82,566–84,316 range, higher low at 82,706.
The weekend grind to the 84,970 weekend high unwound from Monday's Asia open as the USD firmed on 10Y yields above 5.2% and October hike pricing, printing a week low at 82,566 around the NY open. A higher low at 82,706 into Tuesday's Asia session has since built a potential double bottom. Price is back above a flat EMA(20) near 83,630, but it sits at the 61.8% fib of the drop, and the 84,316 double cap has rejected two attempts. RSI(14) is near 60 inside the range.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,316 double cap confirms the double bottom and opens the path to the 84,970 weekend high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and a loss of EMA(20) near 83,630 puts the 82,706 higher low back in focus
Break below the 82,566 week low invalidates the higher-low read
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak into Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP follows Wed 12:15 UTC
Higher low at 82,706 beneath twin highs at 84,316.
The drop from Sunday's 84,970 week high carried through Monday's Asia and London sessions to a week low at 82,566 during NY hours. Tuesday's Asian dip then held a higher low at 82,706, and the London open rally has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 83,610 and past the 61.8% retrace of the Sun–Mon drop. The 84,316 twin highs are capping for a second time, with a firm USD and 10Y yields at 2007 highs keeping rallies contained so far.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,316 twin highs completes the double bottom and opens the path back to the 84,970 week high
Rejection at 84,316 and a loss of ema20 near 83,610 returns price to the middle of the range
Break below the 82,706 higher low puts the 82,566 week low back in play
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC today, with ADP Wed 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Range after Monday's selloff, rebound stalling · RSI 58 · price 83,842.67
Twin lows 82566/82706 vs twin highs 84316 under weekly open.
BTC fell from the 84970 Sunday high in Monday's Asia session and set a week low at 82566 during NY hours. A firm USD and a 10Y yield at 5.27% weighed on the move. Tuesday's higher low at 82706 and the Asia-to-London rebound lifted price back above the ema20 near 83490, but the twin highs at 84316 just below the 84347 weekly open capped it again at London open, leaving a double-bottom shape with an unbroken neckline and price holding the 50% retracement of the Sunday-Monday drop.
Support: 83,490.00, 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 84,316.00, 84,347.00, 84,970.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84316 twin highs and 84347 weekly open completes the double bottom and opens the Sunday high at 84970
Failure to hold the ema20 near 83490 returns price toward the 82706 higher low
Loss of the 82566 week low breaks the range and resumes the lower-low sequence
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fed speakers into Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ADP Wednesday 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the week's key macro test for rate-sensitive risk
08:05 UTC
Range, recovering off a higher low · RSI 60 · price 84,029.46
82,566–85,076 range; higher low at 82,706 testing the 84,315 neckline.
BTC has traded an 82,566–85,076 range since Friday, when firmer US durables and Michigan prints knocked it off the friday high during NY hours. Monday's slide from the 84,347 weekly open bottomed at the 82,566 monday low in the first hour of NY. Tuesday's 82,706 low then set a higher low, and a late-Asia rally into the London open reclaimed the ema20 near 83,480. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the Sunday-to-Monday drop, around 84,050, with RSI(14) near 60, just under the monday high that forms the double-bottom neckline, below a line of lower highs.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,315 monday high and 84,347 weekly open completes the double-bottom neckline and brings the 84,970 sunday high back into view
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and a close back below the ema20 near 83,480 returns price to mid-range
Break below the 82,706 tuesday low negates the higher-low line and exposes the 82,566 monday low
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fed speakers through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; ADP on Wed 12:15 UTC is the larger risk
07:05 UTC
Downtrend from Sunday high, bouncing off a higher low · RSI 58 · price 83,836.67
Lower highs from 84,883 and 84,315; higher low at 82,706; price pressing the descending trendline.
BTC slid from the 84,970 Sunday high as the USD bid on ~70% October hike odds and 10y yields at 2007 highs weighed. Monday's drop ran through Asia and London to the 82,566 Monday low at the NY open, then snapped back to an 84,315 lower high. Tuesday's Asia session printed a higher low at 82,706 and lifted price to the 83,940 Asia high, back above EMA(20) near 83,420 and EMA(50) near 83,610. That puts price at the 50% retracement of the Sunday-Monday drop near 83,770, where the lower-highs trendline sits, with RSI(14) recovering to ~58 from the low 40s.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 84,315 lower high breaks the Sunday-Monday sequence; the 84,400 weekly open sits just above
Rejection at the 83,940 Asia high or the 61.8% fib near 84,050 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
Loss of the ema20 and the 82,706 higher low exposes the 82,566 Monday low at the range floor
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into Waller at 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; Wednesday's ADP at 12:15 UTC is the larger test
06:04 UTC
Lower highs since Sunday, basing near 82,600 · RSI 45 · price 83,354.20
Descending highs off 84,970 over a 82,566–82,706 base; price pinned on EMA20.
Sunday's 84,970 high has given way to a string of lower highs. Monday's selloff ran from the Asia session through London and flushed to the 82,566 week low in the first hour of NY as USD firmed on 10y yields above 5%. The NY rebound stalled at Monday's NY high of 84,315, beyond the 61.8% fib of the Sunday–Monday drop, and faded to a 83,995 lower high. Tuesday's Asia session printed a higher low at 82,706, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 83,317 with EMA(50) at 83,570 overhead and RSI(14) neutral around 45.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,995 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline shifts the read toward a range recovery, with 84,315 ny high next
Failure to hold the 82,706 asia low, then the 82,566 week low, confirms a lower-low extension and voids the higher-low base
EMA50 at 83,570 is the area to watch for rejection or break; losing EMA20 at 83,317 returns price to the base
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with ADP on Wed at 12:15 UTC the larger risk
Lower high at 84315 after Monday's range break; compressing 82566–84315.
BTC broke out of the weekend 83,500–84,900 range in Monday's Asia session from 84,884, taking out Friday's 83,064 low and printing a week low at 82,566 into the NY open as a firmer USD and 10y yields near 2007 highs weighed on risk. The NY-hours rebound stalled at 84,315, a lower high beyond the 61.8% fib of the 84,884–82,566 leg, and price has since slipped back under the ema20 (~83,300) and ema50 (~83,550) with RSI(14) near 46. Tuesday's asia low at 82,706 sits just above the week low, leaving price compressing beneath the lower highs trendline.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82,566 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 and ema50 at 83,300–83,550 would soften the downtrend read
Break above the 84,315 lower high negates the lower highs trendline
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus heavy Fedspeak today, then ADP Wed 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Sunday's 84,970 high gave way to a Monday sell-off from the weekly open at 84,347. Asia and London hours carried price to 82,609, and a fresh week low printed at 82,566 around the NY open. The NY-hours rebound to 84,315 overshot the 61.8% of the Sun–Mon drop and was rejected. That left a lower-high sequence at 83,995 and 83,588, and price is back below EMA(20) near 83,230 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the low 40s. BTC is trading off US yields at 2007 highs and a firm USD rather than crypto-specific news, and the Asia low at 82,706 keeps a slightly rising base support intact for now.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 82,566 week low breaks the base support and confirms a lower-low
Recovery above the 83,588 lower high and EMA(20) near 83,230 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the weekly open at 84,347 would unwind Monday's breakdown
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Waller at 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
ADP Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the week's main macro test for BTC
03:04 UTC
Downtrend since weekly open, lows being tested · RSI 42 · price 82,963.63
BTC opened the week near 84347 and sold off through the London session to 82609, with a second leg into NY yesterday printing the 82566 week low. The NY rebound retraced about 72% of the Sun-Mon drop to 84315 but stalled just under the weekly open. Since then lower highs at 83995 and 83590 have kept price below EMA(20) near 83280, with RSI(14) near 42. The Asian session has faded toward the 82706 asia low as a firm USD and 10y yields at 2007 highs weigh on rate-sensitive assets.
Support: 82,706.00, 82,566.00
Resistance: 83,280.00, 83,590.00, 84,347.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below 82566 week low confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Failure to hold the 82706 asia low puts Monday's double test of 82566-82609 back in play
H1 close above the 83590 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Rejection or break at the 84347 weekly open decides whether the Sun-Mon drop is fully retraced
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could materially shift this read
ADP Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the week's main labour test for USD and yields
Double top resolved lower; lower highs capping, base forming near 82,566–82,706.
Sunday's 84,970 peak formed a double top with Friday's 85,076 high. The Friday neckline near 83,064 gave way in Monday's Asia session, and the drop extended into the NY open to the monday low at 82,566, as the USD firmed and the US 10y hit 2007 highs. The NY-hours rebound stalled at 84,315, just beyond the 61.8% of the Sunday-Monday drop, and that rejection left a lower high on the lower-highs trendline. Price has since faded back below ema20 (~83,375) and ema50 (~83,640) with RSI(14) near 43, while Tuesday's asia low at 82,706 sits just above Monday's low.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 82,566 extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the lower high at 84,315 breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaim of ema20/ema50 at 83,375–83,640 would mark the first shift in the H1 EMA cycle; the 61.8% of the Sunday-Monday drop sits near 84,050
Loss of the asia low at 82,706 would leave the 82,566–82,706 base as a failed double-low attempt
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC plus six Fed speakers, then ADP Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K), could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
BTC has printed lower highs since Sunday's 84970 peak. The slide from the weekly open near 84025 through Monday's Asia and London hours ran to an 82566 week low as the US 10y hit 2007 highs and the dollar firmed. The NY-hours rebound stalled at the 84315 monday high near the 61.8% retracement of the Sunday–Monday drop. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) around 83330, with RSI(14) near 45, and is now testing Monday's 83022 prior low under a cluster of lower highs near 83590.
Support: 83,021.57, 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,330.00, 83,590.00, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 83022 prior low exposes the 82566 week low
Recovery above ema20 (~83330) and the 83590 lower highs cap would ease the pressure on the lows
Close above the lower highs trendline (~84050, 61.8% retracement) and the 84315 monday high breaks the descending sequence
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC plus six Fed speakers could materially shift this read; ADP Wed 12:15 UTC is the larger test
Rejection at the 84883 Monday high at the weekly open set off an Asia-to-London slide. The NY session flushed to the 82566 week low, bounced to the 84315 bounce high, then faded, with USD firm on 10y yields at 2007 highs. Price now sits just under the ema20 and the 38.2% of the Monday selloff fib near 83450. Each high since Friday's 85076 print has come in lower, and dips since the week low have held a short run of higher lows.
Support: 82,566.07
Resistance: 83,485.00, 84,315.15
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84315 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 83021 late ny low undercuts the higher lows trendline and exposes the 82566 week low
Acceptance above the ema20 near 83485 would shift the read toward a range rather than an extended downtrend
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak into Waller at 19:00 UTC could reprice yields and move BTC
ADP Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K); a soft print is the main upside risk to the downtrend read