21:10 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below cycle high · RSI 59 · price 83,422.13
Higher highs and higher lows since the Aug 19 breakout; price retesting the 82k range top.
BTC left its 62k–66k July–August base on Aug 19, then spent four weeks inside a 75k–82k range. It broke that range on Sep 18 and reached a cycle high of 87,273 on Sep 21. The past week has been a shallow pullback: a Sep 28 swing low at 82,566 sits on the fib 38.2% of the breakout leg, just above the 82,178 range top. Lower highs have formed near 85,000. Price holds above a rising EMA(50) near 77,400 and above the rising-lows trendline, and RSI has cooled to about 59 from overbought. That resilience comes despite a firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing, with no crypto-specific driver in play.
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 82,178 range top puts price back inside the prior range and exposes the fib 50% at 81,088 and EMA(20) near 81,700
- A daily close above the 85,000 lower highs reopens the 87,273 cycle high, with the 90,000 round number beyond
- A loss of the Sep 28 swing low at 82,566 extends the pullback past the breakout leg's fib 38.2%
- ADP at 12:15 UTC and core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC on Sep 30 could materially shift this read, and Waller's 19:00 UTC remarks today add rates risk
- A break of the rising-lows trendline, now near 79,800, would end the higher-low chain from the August base