21:10 UTC
Stepwise uptrend, pausing below highs · RSI 60 · price 83,809.70
HH/HL chain since Aug 19; 82.5k–87.3k consolidation above prior range.
Stepwise uptrend since the Aug 19 breakout from the 61k–67k base. Higher lows at 74,903 (Sep 16, the range low) led to a Sep 21 range break above the 82,178 prior high to an 87,273 swing high. Over the last nine sessions price has consolidated between 82.5k and 87.3k. The Sep 28 swing low at 82,566 sits on the 38.2% fib of the September rally, a lower high has formed at 85,076, and price is still above a rising EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cooled to about 60. Today's soft core PCE print barely registered on the daily bar, and Sep 30 closed as a narrow session inside the consolidation.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 82,566 swing low and the 82,178 prior high would turn the retest into a false break and expose the 50% fib near 81,090
- A close back above the 85,076 lower high reopens the 87,273 swing high; a second failure there would leave a double-top shape
- Loss of the rising trendline from the Aug 17 launch low (near 80.6k) would put the Sep range low at 74,903 back in play
- ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC (f/c 55 / 72.3), plus Fed speakers tonight, could shift yields and the USD and change this read