EUR/USD holds a clear H4 downtrend, printing lower highs from 1.1619 with the latest leg carving a floor at the 1.1325 range low. Yesterday's soft eurozone HICP undershoot reinforced the dovish ECB lean and pushed price back below the 1.1400 pivot after a rejection at the 1.1436 swing high. Price is now consolidating between 1.1325 and 1.1400 with ATR steady, no expansion yet.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1436
What it said to watch
Break of 1.1325 range low opens the path toward 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1400 pivot and 1.1436 swing high needed to challenge the downtrend
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Downtrend intact from the early-window 1.1644 high through a sequence of lower highs, with price now consolidating in a 1.1360-1.1435 band after EUR softened on the June HICP undershoot (2.8% vs 3%). ATR(14) has compressed as the decline stalls just above the 1.1325 swing low. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the broader structure heavy.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1325, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1435
What it said to watch
Close below 1.1360 then 1.1325 opens the 1.1250 floor
Reclaim of 1.1435 range cap would neutralise the lower-high structure
US NFP Thu 12:30 UTC and Lagarde Jul 3 could materially shift this read
Downtrend intact on H4 with a sequence of lower highs since the 1.1620 area, and EUR stayed heavy after soft HICP (2.8% vs 3%) trimmed ECB-hike bets against a firm Dollar. Price has been basing in a 1.1325-1.1436 range since the leg down to the 1.1325 swing low, with EMA20 and EMA50 still overhead. ATR has compressed off the sell-off pace, leaving the pair coiled around the 1.1390/1.1410 pivot.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1436
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1325 confirms a lower low, exposing 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1436 needed to challenge the descending highs
Lagarde and Warsh speeches today (HIGH) could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 52 · price 1.14038
Higher lows off 1.1325, capped near 1.1437.
H4 remains in the broader downtrend off the early-month 1.1625 high, but price has carved higher lows since basing at 1.1325 and reclaimed the short EMAs. The recovery stalled at 1.1437 — the 38.2% retrace of the 1.1619-1.1325 leg — where sellers rejected the advance, leaving price consolidating around 1.1400. EUR stays pinned by the diverging Fed-hike/soft-EZ-CPI backdrop into the next data triggers.
Support: 1.1382, 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1437, 1.1450
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1437 fib level opens the path to the 1.1450 resistance
Failure to hold 1.1382 recent low reopens the 1.1325 swing low
Eurozone flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US ADP/ISM later today could reset this range
Lower highs since early June, recent higher lows basing.
H4 has been a clean downtrend since the early-June rejection from 1.1645, carving lower highs into the 1.1325 swing low. Price has since recovered and set higher lows around 1.1378, building a base under the 1.1436 swing high while sitting back above EMA20 but capped by a falling EMA50. The soft German/Italian/French inflation prints keep the EUR read fragile ahead of the pivotal EZ flash HICP.
Support: 1.1378, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1436, 1.1450
What it said to watch
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC is the pivotal EUR catalyst and could reset this read
H4 close above 1.1450 improves euro momentum and breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.1325 confirms a fresh lower low and resumes the downtrend