The multi-week decline from 1.1644 to the 1.1325 swing low has stalled, with price carving a rounded base and now snapping back through the 1.1400 pivot. The June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) hit the dollar and drove the sharp final push, reclaiming the 1.1435 weekly top and lifting price above both EMAs. Bounce remains corrective within the broader downtrend until the descending lower-highs resistance breaks.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1435, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1400 pivot reopens the path toward the 1.1325 swing low
Close above 1.1470 recent high extends the bounce toward the 1.1550 trendline
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC minutes (Wed) are the next material catalysts
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off base · RSI 60 · price 1.14461
Based at 1.1325, reclaimed 1.1400 pivot.
Multi-week downtrend from 1.1624 bottomed at 1.1325 and has been basing between 1.1370 and 1.1440 for several days. The soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) drove a sharp reclaim of the 1.1400 pivot, pushing price to a 1.1458 session high and lifting it back above both EMAs. ATR is expanding on the payrolls impulse, so momentum has turned up after the compression at the lows.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1458, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1325 swing low
1.1550 trendline resistance caps the recovery
FOMC minutes Wed could materially shift the USD read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, base forming · RSI 53 · price 1.14034
Lower highs off 1.1619, higher low above 1.1325.
H4 has been in a downtrend since the roll from 1.1619, but the decline stalled at 1.1325 and price has since carved a higher low near 1.1369, forming a compression against lower highs. The last leg back above 1.1400 is USD-driven — the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) softened the dollar rather than EUR strength given the sub-3% HICP print. ATR(14) sits near 33 pips, a mid-range regime with the 1.1369–1.1436 band containing recent action.
Support: 1.1369, 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1436, 1.1470
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1436 swing high opens the 1.1470 range top
Failure to hold 1.1369 higher low reopens 1.1325 swing low
Fed's Daly and ISM Services next week could reprice the USD leg driving this bounce
Three-week downtrend from 1.1644 bottomed near 1.1325 and price is now basing in a 1.1360-1.1436 range, back above 1.1400 on broad USD softness after the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K). The recovery is USD-driven rather than euro strength — sub-3% Eurozone HICP has trimmed ECB hike bets. Price is holding the 38.2% retrace of the whole decline as EMA20/EMA50 flatten and converge.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1436, 1.1470
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1436 range top opens the 1.1470 range cap
Failure to hold 1.1360 swing low reopens the 1.1325 range low
Fed's Daly and ISM Services next week could reprice the USD leg of this bounce
H4 carved a persistent lower-high sequence from 1.1645 down to the 1.1325 swing low before basing and grinding back to reclaim the 1.14 pivot. ATR(14) has compressed sharply through the last two weeks of consolidation, and price is now retesting the 1.14 level from above after repeated rejections there earlier in the window. The recovery is largely a USD story into today's NFP, with softer US data (ADP miss, ISM cooling) trimming hawkish-Fed bets.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1361, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.14336, 1.14803
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls at 12:30 GMT is the primary near-term driver for this read
H4 close above 1.14336 opens the path back toward the 1.14803 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.14 pivot re-exposes the 1.1361 weekly low then the 1.1325 swing low
The H4 has been in a broad downtrend from 1.1645 into the 1.1325 low, but price has carved a higher low near 1.1361 and is now retesting the 1.1400 pivot that capped prior bounces — with this bar closing 1.14156 above it. The soft Eurozone HICP miss keeps EUR heavy on the crosses, so recent USD-led lift is doing the work here. ATR is easing off the impulsive-decline highs, consistent with the basing structure.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1361, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the primary near-term driver and can decide the 1.1400 pivot break
Sustained H4 close above 1.1436 swing high confirms the higher-low recovery
Loss of 1.1361 reopens the 1.1325 range low and negates the base
07:57 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising into range · RSI 45 · price 1.13836
Consolidation above 1.1325 low, capped near 1.1436.
EUR/USD remains in a multi-week downtrend off the 1.1620 area, but has stalled into a consolidation between the 1.1325 low and a 1.1436 double top after the cooler EZ HICP print trimmed ECB July-hike odds. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with the pair pinned mid-range around 1.1380 ahead of US NFP. The 1.1400 handle continues to cap rebounds while demand near 1.1361 has held.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant swing event and could break this range in either direction
H4 close above 1.1436 would negate the double top and lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.1325 confirms downtrend continuation to fresh lows
EURUSD trended lower through June from the 1.1645 area, with the euro leg pressured after this week's cooler EZ HICP miss trimmed ECB July-hike odds. Since the 1.1325 low the pair has stabilised into a 1.1325-1.1436 range, price pinned near 1.1384 below both EMAs with ATR(14) compressing. US NFP later today is the dominant swing factor for the next leg.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this range read
H4 close above 1.1400 range cap opens the path to 1.1436 swing high
Failure to hold 1.1325 range low confirms a lower-low continuation
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 47 · price 1.13836
Lower highs since mid-June, range-bound above 1.1325.
Downtrend intact on H4 with lower highs since the 1.1621 peak; price sold off to the 1.1325 range low before a shallow bounce that stalled at the 1.14363 swing high and faded back under EMA20/EMA50. The soft Eurozone HICP miss and hawkish-hold Fed repricing have capped EUR, leaving the pair pinned in a 1.1325–1.1436 band. ATR remains elevated, so the range edges are the reference points into the US jobs data.
Support: 1.13242, 1.13687
Resistance: 1.14363, 1.1410
What it said to watch
US NFP today 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver and could break this range
H4 close below 1.1325 range low confirms fresh lower-low toward 1.1300
Reclaim of 1.14363 swing high and EMA50 near 1.1410 would neutralise the downtrend read
EURUSD has been in a clean downtrend since mid-window, price rolling from 1.1620 to the 1.1325 swing low as June's HICP undershoot trimmed July ECB hike odds. The last week has flattened into consolidation between 1.1325 and the 1.1434 swing high, with price now pinned below both EMA20 and EMA50 and stalling under the 1.1410 pivot. ATR is compressing off the impulse-leg extremes, leaving the pair rangebound near its lows.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1434
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1325 confirms downtrend continuation toward 1.1210
reclaim of the 1.1410 pivot would neutralise the downside pressure
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read