EUR/USD jumped through 1.1400 on Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K), spiking to 1.14723 during the NY session before fading. Since then it has consolidated in the low 1.1430s, carving lower highs into the Friday Asia session while holding above EMA20/50. RSI(14) has cooled back near 53 as the impulse loses steam.
Support: 1.14259, 1.1400, 1.1385
Resistance: 1.1458, 1.14723
What it said to watch
HCOB PMIs 07:15–08:00 UTC and Lagarde speech (08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Consolidating below weekly top after NFP breakout.
EUR/USD spiked to 1.1472 on Thursday's NFP miss (57K vs 110K) as stretched USD longs unwound, then settled into a tight consolidation just above the 1.1400 pivot. Price has held above EMA(20) since the payrolls impulse but the 1.1435 weekly top continues to cap, with RSI(14) cooling back toward the mid-50s as the drive stalls.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1435 weekly top opens the path to 1.1472 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1361 swing low
HCOB Services/Composite PMIs and Lagarde speech (Fri 07:15–08:00 UTC) could reshape this read
22:01 UTC
Up off week low, momentum slowing · RSI 54 · price 1.14346
Post-spike consolidation below weekly top.
The dominant move this week was the NFP-driven spike (the 57K US payrolls miss) that ran EUR/USD from the week low near 1.1361 up to 1.1472 in a single hourly candle. Price has since retraced into consolidation around 1.1435, the weekly top, holding above EMA20 with RSI cycling back near the midline. The pivot at 1.1400 has flipped to support after the breakout, capping the earlier week's range.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1472
What it said to watch
Rejection at 1.1435 weekly top keeps price boxed in the post-NFP range
Hourly close above 1.1472 nfp high extends the up leg
Failure to hold 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1361 week low
Lagarde speech and HCOB PMIs (Fri 07:15–08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD ripped higher on the 57K NFP miss during the NY session, tagging 1.14723 before settling into a tight range around 1.1433. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling near 56, but the impulse has stalled — the 1.14550 spike zone has capped follow-through and 1.14285 is defining the base of the consolidation.
Support: 1.14285, 1.1425, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1455, 1.14723
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14550 reopens the path to the 1.14723 week high
Failure to hold 1.14285 exposes the 1.1400 pivot
Fri HCOB Services/Composite PMIs and Lagarde speech (~07:15–08:00 UTC) could shift this read
EUR/USD spiked to a week high of 1.1472 into the NY session as the soft June NFP headline (57K vs 110K) squeezed the dollar, before fading back toward 1.1430. Price holds above the 1.1400 pivot and both EMAs, with RSI cooling from the NFP push but still above 50. The 1.1451 NFP close is the near cap; broader week range sits between 1.1361 and 1.1472.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.14512, 1.14723
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1400 pivot reopens the week low at 1.1361
Reclaim of 1.1451 puts the 1.1472 week high back in play
ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed are the next catalysts for this read
Range break higher, consolidating below week high.
EUR ripped through the 1.1435 weekly top on today's soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K), spiking to 1.14723 before fading back as firmer internals capped the move. Price now consolidates around 1.1430, holding a series of higher lows off Wednesday's 1.13613 base and sitting above EMA20/50. The weekly top at 1.14435 is now the immediate cap after being reclaimed intraday.
Support: 1.14285, 1.1415, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14435, 1.1458, 1.14723
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.14435 weekly top reopens 1.14580/1.14723
Failure to hold 1.14285 swing low turns structure sideways
Loss of the 1.1400 pivot confirms a lower low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could reprice the USD leg
EUR/USD spiked to a 1.1472 week high on the soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K) before easing back toward 1.1430. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s as the post-payroll surge digests. The 1.1455-1.1472 zone capped follow-through through the NY session, with lower highs printing since.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1455, 1.14723
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1400 pivot would negate the NFP breakout
Reclaim of 1.1455 nfp cap opens a retest of the 1.1472 week high
ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes could reset this read
EUR/USD spiked to 1.14723 on the soft June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) during NY hours, clearing the 1.1435 weekly top that had capped price all week. It has since eased back into the low-1.1430s but holds above EMA20 around 1.1418, with RSI cooling off overbought toward the mid-50s. The 1.1400 pivot remains the base of this move.
Support: 1.14285, 1.1418, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1458, 1.14723
What it said to watch
Hold above the 1.1400 pivot keeps the breakout structure intact
H1 close back below 1.14285 session low negates the NFP thrust and points back to 1.1400
A push through 1.14580 reopens the 1.14723 week high
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 1.1472 spike, now retracing toward 1.1400.
EUR/USD spiked to 1.1472 on the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) during the NY session, then faded back below the 1.1435 weekly top as a firmer unemployment rate capped the dollar sell-off. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) easing back near 58 after the overbought push, keeping the this-week uptrend intact but its upside momentum stalled. The 1.1435 weekly top has now capped the pullback high, with 1.1400 the pivot beneath.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1472
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1435 weekly top reopens the 1.1472 nfp high
Failure to hold 1.1400 pivot confirms a lower low back toward 1.1361 swing low
US ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed could reshape this read
EUR/USD spiked hard through the NY session on the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K), tagging a week high at 1.14723 before easing back toward 1.1430. Price has since consolidated above the 1.1400 pivot, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cooling off the highs. The session-high band at 1.1458 capped the retracement, while the 1.14285 day low marks the near-term floor.
Support: 1.14285, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1458, 1.14723
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1400 pivot would negate the post-NFP reclaim
Reclaim of 1.1458 session high reopens the 1.14723 week high
FOMC Minutes Wed and ISM Services Mon are the next catalysts that could reshape this read
Range break higher, pulling back into breakout zone.
EUR/USD ripped through the week's 1.1435 weekly top on the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K), spiking to 1.14723 in the NY session before fading back to 1.1431. Price is now retesting the broken range top, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling from overbought toward the mid-50s. The 1.1400 pivot below and the 1.1458 session high frame the immediate reaction zone.
Support: 1.1400, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1458, 1.14723
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close back below 1.1400 pivot would negate the NFP breakout
Reclaim of 1.1435 weekly top reopens the 1.1458 session high
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC minutes (Wed) are the next USD catalysts
17:01 UTC
Uptrend after NFP breakout · RSI 62 · price 1.14358
Broke weekly range top, holding above.
EUR/USD cleared the 1.1435 weekly top on the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K), spiking to 1.1472 as USD longs unwound during the NY session. Price has since eased back but holds above the former range cap, keeping the breakout intact with RSI(14) cycling in the 60s. The 1.1435 weekly top has flipped to first support.
Support: 1.1435, 1.1400, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1472
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1435 weekly top negates the breakout and returns price to the prior range
Loss of 1.1400 pivot confirms failure of the NFP move
ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed are the next catalysts for USD direction
The June NFP miss at 57K vs 110K forecast sent EUR/USD sharply higher through the 1.1435 weekly top, printing 1.14723 before easing back toward it into the NY session. Price is holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) cooling from the spike but still north of 60. The 1.1435 prior cap is now the pivot the recovery is retesting from above.
Support: 1.1435, 1.1400, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.14723
What it said to watch
Sustained hold above 1.1435 keeps the breakout intact; an H1 close back below it negates it
Loss of the 1.1400 pivot reopens the week's lower range
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could reprice the post-NFP dollar read
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1435 weekly top after the US NFP miss (57K vs 110K), spiking to a 1.14723 weekly high before settling near 1.1446. Price is holding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI cycling in the mid-60s, and pullbacks this session have found the reclaimed 1.1400 pivot. The move reversed a week that had leaned lower on the softer Eurozone CPI print.
Support: 1.1435, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.14723
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1435 weekly top keeps the breakout intact; a close back below reopens the 1.1400 pivot and 1.1360 major supp
Fed speakers and Cipollone later today could shift the post-NFP tone
Failure at the 1.14723 weekly high on a retest would mark a lower-high
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, post-NFP spike · RSI 66 · price 1.14456
Range break higher, pullback holding.
The 57K US NFP miss drove EUR/USD sharply higher into the NY session, spiking to 1.14723 before easing to 1.14456 as the lower 4.2% unemployment rate capped the dovish read. That move broke this week's 1.1360–1.1435 range that had contained price since the soft Eurozone CPI, with the former ceiling near 1.1435 now the immediate reference below. RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s and price holds well above EMA20/50 following the impulse.
Support: 1.14335, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.14723
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14335 puts the 1.1400 pivot back in play
Rejection at 1.14723 caps the post-NFP extension
Fed Daly and ECB Lagarde commentary could reframe this read
EUR/USD punched through the 1.1435 weekly top on the NFP miss (57K vs 110K f/c), spiking to 1.14723 before settling near 1.1440. Price trades above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the mid-60s after the impulse. The former range top at 1.1435 now sits as the nearest reference below.
Support: 1.1435, 1.1400, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.14723
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1435 reopens the 1.1400 pivot then 1.1360 range low
ISM Services (Mon) is the next USD driver that could shift this read
EUR/USD spiked through the 1.1435 weekly top into 1.1472 after the US NFP miss (57K vs 110K) squeezed dollar longs, and price is now consolidating in the 1.1435–1.1458 area. Holding above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the low 60s. The prior weekly cap at 1.1435 is being tested as support after the breakout.
Support: 1.1435, 1.1400, 1.1384
Resistance: 1.1458, 1.14723
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1400 reopens 1.1360/1.1335
Sustained hold above 1.1435 keeps 1.1472 high in play
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed are the next USD catalysts
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 71 · price 1.14503
Range break, testing new highs.
EUR/USD chopped the 1.1370–1.1425 band for most of the week before surging through it on the soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K), tagging 1.1472 before settling near 1.1450. Price now trades above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI stretched into the low-70s after the impulse. The prior 1.1420 cap is the first structure to watch as a retest floor.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1455, 1.14723
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14200 on a pullback would signal the breakout is stalling
H1 close above 1.14723 opens room past the 1.1470 range top
EZ Services/Composite PMIs and Lagarde speech Fri could reshape this read
EUR/USD ripped through 1.1450 in the NY session on the 57K US payrolls miss, extending off Monday's 1.1361 base and clearing the mid-range chop. Price now sits directly under the 1.1470 range cap that has framed the week, with RSI(14) pushed into overbought territory. Both H1 EMAs are below price after the impulsive leg.
Support: 1.1435, 1.1400, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1472
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.1470 confirms a range break higher
Failure to hold 1.1435 signals the NFP spike is being retraced back into range
Fed's Daly and US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend or fade the USD-driven move
13:01 UTC
Uptrend resuming after range break · RSI 67 · price 1.14493
Breakout above week range, price holding highs.
EUR/USD chopped inside a 1.1361–1.1435 range for most of the week before the June NFP miss (57K vs 110K) sold the dollar and drove a clean H1 breakout, spiking to 1.14723 in the last full session. Price now sits at 1.14493, holding above both EMAs after the impulse. The former 1.1420 range top is the immediate reference on any pullback.
Support: 1.1420, 1.1400, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.14723, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1420 negates the breakout and puts the range back in play
Fed's Daly speech (13:45 UTC) could reframe the NFP miss and shift the USD read
Acceptance above 1.14723 opens the path toward 1.1500
A soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) drove a vertical spike into the NY session, snapping the 1.1380–1.1423 range that capped most of the week and lifting price to 1.1472 before settling near 1.1449. Price sits well above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI pushed into overbought territory. The move is USD-led weakness rather than euro strength, leaving the breakout dependent on follow-through.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1435, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1472
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1400 keeps the range break intact; a close back below reopens 1.1361 weekly low
1.1472 session high is the area to watch for rejection or extension
Fed's Daly speech (13:45 UTC) could reframe the NFP miss and shift this read
EURUSD has held a 1.1361-1.1436 range all week, with the June HICP miss keeping the euro soft but well absorbed. Wednesday's spike into 1.1361 saw an immediate wick-back recovery, and price has since ground back to mid-range above EMA20 into the NY session. RSI(14) is cycling around the midline, reflecting the two-way, catalyst-waiting tone.
Support: 1.1392, 1.1375, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst for this pair
H1 close below 1.1361 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1335 zone
EURUSD has been pinned in a 1.1361-1.1436 band all week after the soft June HICP print, with a spike lower to 1.13613 swept and reclaimed into the NY session. Price has since built higher-lows off 1.1375 and pushed back to 1.14206 before easing to 1.1404, keeping it just above the EMA20/50 cluster. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 52, reflecting the two-way, catalyst-waiting tone.
Support: 1.1375, 1.13613, 1.1335
Resistance: 1.14206, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver for the next bars and can override this structure
H1 close above 1.14206 opens the path to the 1.14363 week high
Failure to hold 1.13750 re-exposes the 1.13613 week low
11:01 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 55 · price 1.14095
Range-bound, price back in mid-upper pivot zone.
EUR/USD recovered from Tuesday's 1.1361 week low and is back testing the 1.1390-1.1410 pivot zone, holding above EMA20 after the June HICP miss trimmed ECB tightening bets. The week has been a choppy 1.1361-1.1436 range with no clean directional break; RSI(14) sits mid-band around 55. Price is coiling into the US jobs print with the pivot zone as the immediate fulcrum.
Support: 1.1390, 1.13707, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.14206, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant near-term driver and could break the range either way
H1 close above 1.14206 opens the path to the 1.1436 week high
Loss of the 1.1390 pivot exposes 1.13707 swing low then 1.1361 week low
EUR/USD spent the week boxed between 1.1361 and 1.1436, with June's soft HICP miss keeping the pair defensive early. Price stabbed to 1.13613 into the London-NY transition, then recovered through the NY session back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), tagging 1.1420 before easing to 1.1410. RSI(14) has lifted off its lows into the mid-50s but the range top has yet to break.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1376, 1.1335
Resistance: 1.14206, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant near-term driver — could break this range either way
EURUSD has spent the week trapped between 1.1361 and 1.1435, with the euro capped by the soft June HICP miss that trimmed ECB July-hike odds. The swing to 1.13613 was swept and recovered through the NY-Asia transition, and price has since climbed back above EMA20/EMA50 into the 1.1420 area where two prior attempts stalled. RSI(14) is mid-range around 59, confirming the recovery but no extreme.
Support: 1.1380, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1421, 1.14345
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the immediate driver and could reshape this read
H1 close above 1.14210 opens the path to the 1.14345 week high
Failure to hold 1.13800 exposes the 1.13613 week low again
EUR/USD swept the 1.1361 week low before recovering back above EMA(20)/EMA(50) into the NY session, with price now testing the 1.1420 pivot zone that has capped the week. The soft June HICP miss keeps rallies contained below the 1.1436 week high, and this consolidation is a holding pattern ahead of US jobs. RSI(14) has cycled back near 56 after the wash-out, matching the bounce off the lows.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the immediate driver via the USD side
H1 close above 1.1436 opens the week-high break
Failure to hold 1.1361 confirms a lower-low toward 1.1335
EUR/USD has climbed off the 1.1361 week low, with the last four H1 bars reclaiming the 1.1400 pivot and pushing to 1.14194 as softer US data and Warsh's less-hawkish tone pressured the dollar into the NY session. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling around 60; the 1.13613 spike low from yesterday was rejected and has held. The 1.14265–1.14345 zone that capped earlier this week is the immediate ceiling.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1375, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.14345, 1.14265
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant near-term catalyst and can reset this read
H1 close above 1.14345 opens the path back toward the week high extension
Loss of 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1375 swing low and 1.1361 week low
09:01 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 62 · price 1.14194
Reclaiming 1.1400 pivot into NY.
EUR/USD has clawed back from the 1.1361 weekly low, reclaiming the 1.1400 pivot through the NY approach with RSI(14) pushing into the low-60s and price back above EMA20/50. The recovery follows Warsh's less-hawkish tone pressuring the dollar; the week's broader tone stays two-way after the soft Eurozone HICP miss. Price now presses the 1.1423 session high after four consecutive bullish bars off the base.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1376, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1423, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant near-term driver and can override this structure
Close above 1.14363 (week high) extends the recovery
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot drops price back into the weekly range toward 1.1376
08:01 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 58 · price 1.14082
Week range holding, retesting 1.1400 cap.
EUR/USD sold below the 1.1400 cap after Tuesday's cooler HICP trimmed ECB hike bets, spiking to a 1.1361 week low before demand stepped in. Price has recovered through the Asian session and now sits at the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1436-1.1361 drop, back testing the 1.1400 round-number cap that framed the week's range top. RSI(14) has cycled back near 58 as the pair coils into US NFP.
Support: 1.1375, 1.1361, 1.1388
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant near-term driver — could materially shift this read
Sustained H1 close above 1.1400 opens the path back to the 1.1436 week high
Failure to hold 1.1375 base reopens the 1.1361 week low
EUR/USD spent the week pinned in a 1.1361–1.1436 range after Tuesday's HICP miss (2.8% vs 3% f/c) trimmed ECB July-hike odds. Wednesday's flush to 1.13613 was bought back and price has carved higher lows into the Asia/London handover, reclaiming the 1.1400 pivot with RSI(14) lifting through 60. Price now sits back above EMA20 with the mid-range 1.1400 handle acting as near-term footing ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1387, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1427, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant swing driver for the next bars
H1 close back below 1.1400 and EMA20 negates the recovery and re-opens 1.1361
A close above 1.1436 week high extends the bounce beyond the range
Lower highs since Wednesday's peak, holding above week low.
EUR reversed below the 1.1400 pivot after the Eurozone HICP miss, sliding from Wednesday's 1.14363 high to a 1.13613 week low before stabilising around 1.1387. Price is hugging EMA(20) but remains capped under EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s from oversold. The 1.1400 round level has repelled every attempt since the sell-off.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1376, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver — a beat could revisit 1.1360, a miss opens a push back through 1.1400
Hourly close above 1.1400 pivot would neutralise the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.13613 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 1.1325
Lower highs since midweek peak, holding above sweep low.
EUR/USD reversed the week's advance after the soft June HICP print, rejecting the 1.1434 area twice and breaking back below the 1.1400 pivot. A spike to 1.13613 swept the lows before buyers recovered price to ~1.1387, now holding just above EMA(20) with EMA(50) capping overhead. RSI(14) has cycled back to mid-range after the decline, reflecting a stabilisation rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 1.1361, 1.13613, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14363
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1400 pivot would invalidate the reversal read
Failure to hold 1.1361 swing low opens the path toward the 1.1325 target
US NFP Thursday is the dominant USD catalyst and could reshape this read
Lower highs off midweek peak, holding above week low.
EUR/USD topped near the 1.14345 week high early in the run and has since carved lower highs, pressured by the soft Eurozone HICP miss that trimmed ECB hike odds. A sharp spike down to the 1.13613 week low was rejected and recovered intraday, and price has since gone flat, coiling just under the EMA20 around 1.1386 and below the 1.14000 round number. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46, reflecting stalled momentum after the pullback.
Support: 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1386, 1.1400, 1.14345
What it said to watch
US NFP Thursday 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver and could reset this read
H1 close below 1.13613 confirms a fresh lower low toward the 1.1325 area
Reclaim of 1.14000 and the EMA20 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Lower highs since midweek peak, consolidating above 1.1373.
EUR reversed its early-week gains and rolled over from the 1.1436 midweek peak after June flash HICP undershot at 2.8%, trimming ECB hike odds. A spike down to 1.1361 during the NY session was bought back to 1.1412 before price drifted lower again; it now sits pinned to EMA(20) near 1.1383, capped below EMA(50). RSI(14) has cycled back to the mid-40s as the week's decline consolidates above the 1.1373 low.
Support: 1.1373, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1412, 1.1436
What it said to watch
US NFP today 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close below 1.1361 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.1400 pivot would ease the downside pressure
Lower highs since 1.1436, base building near 1.1380.
EUR/USD rolled over from Tuesday's 1.1436 peak into a run of lower highs, unwinding the early-week bid after the soft Eurozone HICP print reset the ECB read. Price is trading below EMA20 and EMA50, capped under the 1.1400 pivot with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-40s. The 1.1361 week low remains the downside reference after a sharp flush there was quickly reclaimed.
Support: 1.1376, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1436
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1400 negates the lower-high sequence
Break of 1.1361 confirms a lower low
US NFP Thursday 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver and could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tue peak, coiling above week low.
EUR/USD twice stalled near 1.1436 (Monday and Tuesday's NY sessions) before rolling over, with price now pinned around 1.1377 below both H1 EMA20 and EMA50 after the soft June HICP print reset ECB hike odds. The 1.1400 pivot has capped the last two bounces and RSI(14) is sitting mid-40s, tracking the drift toward the 1.13613 week low. Price has compressed into a tight Asia-session range after the volatile spike bar around yesterday's close.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1375, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today can materially shift this read
Hourly close below 1.13613 confirms a lower low toward 1.1325
Reclaim of the 1.1400 pivot negates the lower-high sequence
01:01 UTC
Pullback after mid-week top, momentum down · RSI 42 · price 1.13766
Lower highs off 1.1436, below EMAs.
EUR/USD topped at the 1.1436 week high mid-window before the soft June HICP miss dragged it back under 1.1400, and price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 after a quiet Asian-session drift into 1.1377. A volatile bar swept 1.1361 and reversed, but each rebound has stalled at lower highs around 1.1395. RSI(14) is subdued in the low-40s, consistent with the fade off the highs.
Support: 1.13734, 1.13613
Resistance: 1.1395, 1.14115, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Eurozone unemployment 09:00 UTC feeds the soft-data narrative
Loss of the 1.1361 swing low confirms a lower-low
H1 close back above 1.1395 prior high neutralises the pullback
Lower highs off week high, coiling near range base.
EUR/USD rolled over from the 1.1436 week high after the soft June HICP print undercut July ECB hike odds, sliding back below the 1.1390/1.1410 pivot and trading at 1.1378 under both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The NY-session drop stalled at 1.1361 before a sharp two-way bar snapped back to 1.1411 and faded again, leaving price coiling in a tight Asian-session range near the base. RSI(14) sits around 41, in soft territory but not yet stretched.
Support: 1.13613, 1.1339
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.14363
What it said to watch
US Nonfarm Payrolls Thu 12:30 UTC is the key swing driver for the next bars
H1 close below 1.1361 confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1325 area
Reclaim of the 1.1400 pivot would ease the downside pressure