EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the mid-April high near 1.1849, trading below a declining EMB(50) with a chain of lower highs. Softer June HICP reinforced the ECB's milder path and pushed price below the 1.1400 pivot this week, but demand stepped in twice around 1.1325-1.1333 to form a double-bottom base, from which price has bounced to 1.1415 as a soft US NFP headline trimmed USD longs. The recovery is still capped below the 1.1435 weekly top and the descending trendline off the recent lower highs.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1550
What it said to watch
D1 close above the 1.1435 weekly top would challenge the lower-high structure and open the 1.1550 trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1325 swing low confirms a lower low toward the 1.1300 psych area
ISM Services Mon and FOMC minutes Wed could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.14156
Lower highs, lower lows since April.
EURUSD has trended lower since the mid-April rejection near 1.1850, printing a chain of lower highs and lower lows that broke the 1.1400 pivot mid-June and bottomed at 1.1324. Price is recovering off that low this week, aided by the softer US NFP headline (57K vs 110K), but sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with the descending trendline capping bounces. The last two sessions are pressing back toward the 1.1435 weekly top.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1435, 1.1550
What it said to watch
D1 close above 1.1435 weekly top opens the 1.1550 trendline
Loss of 1.1324 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.1300
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC minutes (Wed) could reset the USD read
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the mid-April failure at 1.1849, accelerating in June with a sharp leg from 1.1621 to 1.1324 lows. Price trades well below EMA50, which has been falling for weeks, and the last four sessions have stalled into a tight 1.1360-1.1436 consolidation as the post-HICP EUR softness meets a USD capped ahead of NFP. Demand has stepped in twice around 1.1325, but rallies keep rejecting under the 1.1400 psych cap.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1361
Resistance: 1.1400, 1.1436, 1.1571
What it said to watch
US NFP today (12:30 UTC) is the dominant swing event for this read
Daily close above 1.1400 would break the consolidation and challenge the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 1.1325 confirms a fresh lower low and extends the downtrend
07:57 UTC
Downtrend, near range lows · RSI 41 · price 1.1377
Lower highs, consolidating above june low.
Downtrend since the April peak near 1.1850, with price below a falling EMr(50) since mid-May and a clean chain of lower highs. The decline accelerated after the mid-June break under 1.1550, reaching 1.1324, and the pair has since drifted sideways between 1.1324 and the 1.1420 range cap. EUR sits soft after the cooler HICP miss dented ECB July-hike odds, while a firm USD keeps the pair pinned into US NFP.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1490, 1.1550
What it said to watch
US NFP today is the dominant swing event and could materially shift this read
Daily close above 1.1420 eases the downside pressure from the range cap
Break and close below 1.1324 confirms a fresh lower low