Broader H4 downtrend from the mid-June highs near 1.1620 bottomed at 1.1325, and price has since carved higher lows and recovered to a recent high at 1.1472 before easing to 1.1437. The bid is a USD story — dovish Fed repricing after the soft 57K NFP miss — rather than EUR demand, with EUR soft on crosses. ATR(14) has compressed to ~26 pips as price coils between the recent low band and the 1.1472 cap.
Support: 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the path to the 1.1500 psych zone
Failure to hold 1.1370 recent low reopens the 1.1325 swing low
Mon ISM Services + Eurozone Retail Sales/Lagarde could shift this range read
Price carved a double bottom at 1.1325/1.1361 after the multi-day slide from 1.1621, and has since recovered with a higher-low structure, tagging 1.1472 before easing back to 1.1437. The rally is largely a USD story after the 57K NFP miss trimmed Fed hike bets; EUR upside is capped by cooling EZ inflation. Price now retesting the 38% retracement of the 1.1621-1.1325 leg with EMA20 back above EMA50.
Support: 1.1361, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the path toward the 1.1500 resistance zone
Failure to hold 1.1361 confirms a lower-low and revives the downtrend
ISM Services (Mon) and Lagarde speech could materially shift this read
Base built above 1.1325, higher lows into resistance.
Price fell from the 1.1620 peak to 1.1325 in mid-June, then carved a rounded base and has recovered on broad USD weakness after the 57K NFP miss. The bounce is running into the 1.1470 cap — roughly the 50% retrace of the 1.1620-1.1325 decline — with 1.1500 the deeper barrier above. Recovery has printed higher lows off 1.1325, keeping the base intact while the pair stays capped.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1470 cap opens the path to the 1.1500 psych barrier
Failure to hold 1.1410 prior range shifts focus back to 1.1370 support
Loss of 1.1370 reopens the 1.1325 swing low
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
H4 carved a rounded base off the 1.1325 low and has ground higher into 1.1472, where supply capped the last push — a USD-driven bounce after the 57K NFP miss rather than a euro-led move. Higher lows are intact since mid-window and price now holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, but the 1.1470/1.1500 zone remains the ceiling the digest flags. ATR is mid-range, consistent with a controlled grind rather than an impulsive trend leg.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the path toward 1.1500
Failure to hold 1.1370 confirms a lower-low and reopens 1.1325
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Price rolled over from the 1.164 area to a 1.1325 double bottom mid-window, then recovered as a weak US NFP (57K) capped the dollar and lifted EURUSD back through the 1.1400 pivot into the mid-1.1400s. The rebound has reclaimed both EMAs and is now grinding toward the 1.1470-1.1475 nine-day high cap. ATR sits in a moderate regime as the recovery extends.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1475, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1475 opens the 1.1500/1.1550 trendline zone
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1325 double bottom
ISM Services Mon and FOMC Minutes Wed could reshape this USD-driven read
H4 sold off from the early-month 1.1644 highs into a double-bottom base near 1.1325, and price has since carved higher lows back to 1.1452 as the weak US NFP (57K) knocked the dollar. Recovery is now pressing the 1.1470-1.1475 nine-day high, with the 1.1400 pivot reclaimed as support. ATR(14) has compressed off the drop, and EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1472, 1.1500, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1472 opens the 1.1500 round number and 1.1550 trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1325 swing low
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC Minutes (Wed) could materially reprice the dollar leg
The broader H4 downtrend from 1.164 carved a double bottom near 1.1325 in late June, and price has since printed higher lows into a nine-day high at 1.1444. The recovery is largely a weak-USD story after the soft NFP miss; EUR intrinsic strength stays capped by the downside HICP surprise. Price is holding above EMA20/EMA50 with ATR still elevated, keeping the rebound intact while the 1.1400 pivot holds.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.1472, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1444/1.1472 opens path toward the 1.1550 trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot reopens the 1.1325 swing low
Eurozone Services PMI and Lagarde (07:15-08:00 UTC) could shift this read
05:01 UTC
Recovering, momentum turning up · RSI 61 · price 1.14406
Rounded base, rising lows off 1.1325.
EURUSD has carved a rounded base off the 1.13242 swing low, printing rising lows over the last two weeks and reclaiming both EMAs. The soft US NFP print drove the breakout above 1.1420 and pushed price into the 1.1444 weekly-top zone, though the digest frames this as a dollar-weakness story rather than intrinsic euro strength. ATR is steady rather than expanding, keeping the advance orderly.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1365, 1.13242
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.14723
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.14440 opens the path toward the 1.14723 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.14000 pivot reopens the 1.13650/1.13242 base
Lagarde (08:00 UTC) and Eurozone Services/Composite PMIs could shift this read intrabar
Basing above the 1.1325 low, higher lows building.
The multi-week downtrend from 1.1644 bottomed near 1.1325 and price has since carved higher lows, with a sharp recovery leg into 1.1472 on the weak US NFP print before easing back to 1.1423. Price is now working the 38.2% retracement of the impulse, with the 1.1444 weekly top capping and the 1.1400 pivot acting as the immediate support shelf. ATR sits mid-range, neither compressed nor extended, keeping the recovery constructive but unconfirmed above 1.1444.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.14723, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1444 weekly top opens the path toward the 1.1550 trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1400 pivot exposes a retest of the 1.1325 swing low
Lagarde speech and ISM Services next session could materially shift this read
A multi-week downtrend from the 1.162 area bottomed near the 1.1325 base, and price has since carved higher lows into a recovery. The latest leg — driven by broad USD weakness after the weak NFP print — pushed to a nine-day high at 1.1472 before rejection dragged it back to 1.1424, leaving the 1.1444 weekly top capping the advance. ATR(14) remains elevated, consistent with an active swing rather than compression.
Support: 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1444, 1.1472, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1444 weekly top opens the path toward the 1.1550 trendline
Loss of the 1.1400 pivot re-exposes the 1.1370 swing low and the 1.1325 base
Lagarde speech and ISM Services next session could materially shift this read