EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 17 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising at lows · RSI 47 · price 1.15053
Post-breakdown consolidation above 1.1478 low.
Hawkish FOMC dot-plot fallout triggered a sharp breakdown out of the 1.1590 range, dumping price to 1.1478 during NY hours. Price has since consolidated in a tight 1.1495–1.1508 band, RSI(14) recovering toward neutral off the post-drop washout.
Support: 1.14955, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15076, 1.15156, 1.1544
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.15156 needed to challenge the 1.1544 pre-crash zone
Loss of 1.14775 resumes the downside leg
US jobless claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Range break lower, now consolidating above 1.1500.
Sharp range break lower into the FOMC/Warsh fallout dumped EUR/USD from 1.1593 to a 1.14775 swing low. Price has since stabilised in a tight consolidation around the 1.1500 round number, RSI(14) recovering off oversold, with the session running thin into Asia hours.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14835, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15082, 1.1522
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.15000 reopens the 1.14775 swing low
Reclaim of 1.15082 session high needed to extend the bounce toward the 38.2% fib at 1.15220
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD broke hard through 1.1600 and the 1.1500 round number on the hawkish FOMC dot-plot repricing, bottoming at the session low 1.14775 before stabilising. Price has since ground back to 1.15075 in a tight consolidation above 1.1500, RSI(14) recovering to mid-range.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1566, 1.15959
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.15000 reopens the session low at 1.14775
Reclaim of 1.15660 post-drop high needed to challenge pre-drop structure
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind the FOMC move
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after flush · RSI 56 · price 1.15075
Post-FOMC selloff, recovering off lows.
Hawkish FOMC dot-plot repricing crashed EUR/USD ~120 pips from the 1.1590 shelf through 1.1500 to a 1.14775 session low. Asia session has based above the 1.1500 round number on thin volume, grinding back to 1.1507 with RSI(14) recovered to mid-range.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1550
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1500 reopens the 1.14775 low
Reclaim of 1.1550 needed to challenge the pre-crash structure
US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend post-FOMC, now consolidating · RSI 47 · price 1.15047
Sharp range break lower, basing near 1.1500.
EUR/USD broke hard out of its 1.1590–1.1610 range on the hawkish FOMC hold, dumping to 1.14775 before stabilising. Asia session is consolidating in a thin 1.1495–1.1505 band on low volume, holding the 23.6% retrace of the drop; RSI(14) recovered to mid-range after the selloff extreme.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15156, 1.15387
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14775 confirms a lower low and extends the FOMC selloff
Reclaim of 1.15156 challenges the pullback high
US jobless claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Sharp break lower, now consolidating above session low.
EUR/USD broke hard from 1.1593 to 1.14775 on the hawkish-hold FOMC/Warsh fallout, a ~120 pip leg lower. Since then price has based and is consolidating in thin Asia hours, capped at the 1.1505 session high with RSI back to neutral.
Support: 1.1495, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1505, 1.1556, 1.1593
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1505 opens room back toward the 1.1556 swing high
Loss of 1.14775 session low confirms continuation lower
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers could reanimate the move
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after flush · RSI 43 · price 1.15046
Sharp breakdown then tight consolidation off lows.
EUR/USD was knocked from the 1.1590 zone down to 1.14775 on the hawkish FOMC/Warsh fallout, with the volatility bar sweeping below the prior range. Since then price has consolidated in a tight 1.1500–1.1505 band, recovering roughly 23% of the drop with RSI(14) lifting off oversold.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15156
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1516 extends the recovery off 1.14775
Loss of 1.14775 session low resumes the downleg toward 1.1500 April-low region
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC could shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend post-FOMC, now flat · RSI 45 · price 1.15046
Range break lower, basing in tight range.
A hawkish FOMC hold under Warsh slammed EUR/USD ~110 pips lower into NY hours, with the slide bottoming at the 1.14775 session low. Price has since stabilised in a tight 1.1499–1.1505 range, with RSI recovering off the lows; the 1.15050 range top is capping for now.
Support: 1.1494, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1505, 1.1516
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.15160 reclaims the prior swing and eases the drop
Loss of 1.14775 session low extends the lower-low sequence
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp drop · RSI 45 · price 1.15015
Range break lower, now consolidating near lows.
EUR/USD broke hard out of its 1.1590 range during NY hours on the hawkish FOMC hold, plunging to 1.14775 as the dollar firmed on Warsh's tone. Price has since stabilised in a tight 1.1500-1.1505 band on thin late-session volume, RSI(14) recovering off the lows near 45.
Support: 1.1495, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1505, 1.1516, 1.1544
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.15160 would invalidate the lower-low structure
Loss of 1.14775 extends the downside leg
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice the dollar
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after sharp leg · RSI 42 · price 1.15015
Impulsive drop into 1.1500, now consolidating.
Hawkish FOMC/Warsh fallout drove a sharp NY-session leg down from 1.1596 into a 1.14775 sweep low, with USD broadly bid. Price has since stabilised, consolidating in a tight 1.14995–1.15050 band around the 1.1500 psych level on thin late-session volume.
Support: 1.14955, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1505, 1.15387
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14775 confirms a lower low toward the 1.1500 April-low zone
M15 close back above 1.15050 opens the path to 1.15387
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and US jobless claims could shift this read
22:31 UTC
Sharp downleg, now stalling · RSI 43 · price 1.15029
Range break lower, tight consolidation at the base.
EUR/USD broke down hard during NY hours, dumping ~120 pips from 1.1596 to 1.14775 on the hawkish FOMC/Warsh fallout and firmer USD. Price is now coiled in a tight 1.1495–1.1505 band through thin late-session trade, RSI(14) recovered off oversold to the low 40s.
Support: 1.14835, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15049, 1.15161
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15161 would unwind part of the drop; failure keeps the base capped
Loss of 1.14775 session low extends the downleg
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC could inject fresh volatility into a thin tape
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after sharp drop · RSI 43 · price 1.15029
Impulsive break lower, now consolidating near lows.
EUR/USD broke down hard through 1.1590 into the NY session on the hawkish-FOMC dollar bid, sweeping to 1.14775 before a partial recovery. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1499–1.1505 band on thin Asia-hours volume, holding above the round 1.1500 and capped at 1.15049.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15049, 1.1566
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.15049 session cap opens room back toward the 1.1566 bounce high
Loss of 1.14775 swing low confirms continuation lower
Volume is thin in Asia hours — London open likely sets the next directional leg
EUR/USD broke sharply lower after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision, slicing through 1.1550 to a session low of 1.14775. Price has since stabilised in a tight band around the 1.1500 psych level into thin Asia-hours trade, recovering off the low but capped under the 1.15049 recent high.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15049, 1.1516
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15160 swing high would ease the post-FOMC downside pressure
Loss of 1.14775 session low confirms continuation of the break
Thin volume into Asia may keep the 1.1495–1.1505 band intact until London
22:16 UTC
Sharp drop post-FOMC, now flat · RSI 44 · price 1.15023
Range break lower, consolidating above the low.
Hawkish FOMC dot-plot and a strong US retail sales print triggered a vertical break of the 1.1590 range during NY hours, tagging 1.1477 before a partial bounce. Price now consolidates in a tight 1.1500–1.1502 band into the late session, RSI(14) recovering off oversold near 43.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15161, 1.1556
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1477 confirms continuation of the post-FOMC leg lower
Reclaim above 1.1556 would unwind much of the FOMC drop
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice the USD move
Hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision smashed EUR/USD through the 1.1585 consolidation, a 500-pip range candle dumping price into 1.14775 before a bounce. Price has clawed back to retest the 1.1500 psych level; RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 41, ATR still bloated by the event spike.
Support: 1.14775, 1.14835
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15156, 1.1566
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 1.15156 opens the path back toward 1.1566 pre-drop area
Loss of 1.14775 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
ATR inflated by FOMC spike — expect normalisation as event flow fades
22:01 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC break · RSI 42 · price 1.15009
Sharp breakdown, now basing above 1.1500.
EUR/USD broke hard out of the 1.1590 shelf on the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision, sweeping down to a 1.14775 session low before recovering to base just above the 1.1500 psych level. RSI is cooling off oversold and price sits well below EMA20/50; the last few bars are tight consolidation into the post-decision lull.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15049, 1.15387
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1540 would ease the breakdown read
Loss of 1.14775 session low extends the down move toward the 1.12 zone flagged by macro
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could reignite the USD bid
21:46 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC shock · RSI 39 · price 1.15009
Sharp breakdown, stabilising above 1.1500.
The hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision smashed EUR/USD ~120 pips off 1.1596 straight through 1.1550, printing a low at 1.14775 before stabilising. Price is now coiling on thin late-session volume around the 1.1500 round number, RSI recovering from its post-drop trough.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1505, 1.1556
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1556 would negate the breakdown structure
Loss of 1.14775 extends the FOMC-driven downside
Asian-session liquidity is thin; gaps possible on FOMC follow-through coverage
21:45 UTC
Downtrend after breakdown, stabilising · RSI 41 · price 1.15009
Sharp range break lower, now consolidating above 1.1500.
The hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision triggered a vertical breakdown from the 1.1590 shelf, slicing through 1.1500 to a 1.14775 low. Price has since clawed back above the 1.1500 psych level and is consolidating in a tight 1.1499–1.1502 band in late NY hours, RSI(14) recovering from oversold.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15156, 1.1544
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14775 reopens the downside toward the April low
Reclaim of 1.15440 needed to repair the breakdown
Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the USD-driven move
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, basing after flush · RSI 42 · price 1.15006
Range broken to downside, recovering off lows.
EUR/USD broke its 1.1590–1.1610 range and collapsed ~140 pips into the NY session on the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision and strong US retail sales, bottoming at 1.14775. Price has since recovered to retest the 1.15000 psych level, RSI(14) lifting off oversold toward 42.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1505, 1.15156, 1.15416
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.15000 reopens the 1.14775 swing low
Reclaim of 1.15156 supply needed to unwind the breakdown
Post-FOMC USD volatility still elevated; ATR near 170 pips
EUR/USD collapsed ~110 pips off 1.1590 into the NY session as Warsh's hawkish dot-plot revision drove a USD bid, printing a 1.14775 low. Price has based around the 1.1500 round number with RSI(14) lifting off oversold; ATR is hugely inflated at ~175 pips on the event volatility.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1516, 1.1560, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14775 extends the post-FOMC leg lower
Reclaim of 1.1560 would unwind much of the drop
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice this further
EUR/USD broke hard below the 1.159 consolidation on the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision, swept down to a 1.14775 swing low with RSI deeply oversold. Buyers reclaimed the 1.1500 psych floor over the last two hours of the NY session; price now basing just above it with momentum stabilising.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15156
What it said to watch
Sustained close back above 1.15156 swing pivot would ease the post-FOMC sell pressure
Failure to hold the 1.1500 psych floor reopens the 1.14775 swing low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed (Thu 12:30 UTC) could extend the dollar repricing
EUR/USD collapsed from 1.1596 to a 1.14775 session low after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision, RSI(14) dipping into oversold. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.1500 round number, well below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1516
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1516 swing high would ease the downside pressure
Loss of 1.14775 session low extends the post-FOMC slide
Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the move
Hawkish FOMC dot-plot triggered a sharp USD bid late in the NY session — EUR/USD broke the 1.1590 base and dumped to 1.14775 in one impulse. Price is now clawing back above the 1.1500 psych level with RSI(14) lifting off oversold; recovery still capped under the 1.1566 post-drop high.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1566, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1500 reopens the 1.14775 session low
Reclaim above 1.1566 would extend the recovery toward 1.1590
Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend USD strength
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1590–1.1596 shelf through the NY session until the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision triggered a vertical ~110-pip flush to 1.14775. Price is now grinding back toward the 1.1500 psych level with RSI(14) lifting off oversold; the broken 1.1516 shelf is the first cap.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15161, 1.15913
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15161 would ease the post-FOMC breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.14775 session low opens further downside
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed in ~16h could extend the dollar bid
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, sharp impulsive leg · RSI 41 · price 1.14998
Range break to downside, basing under 1.1500.
Hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision snapped the multi-hour 1.1590–1.1615 range, driving EUR/USD ~120 pips lower to a 1.14775 low. Price is now basing just under the 1.1500 psych level, RSI(14) recovering off the oversold spike but still sub-50.
Support: 1.14775, 1.14835
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15156, 1.1544
What it said to watch
Reclaim and close above 1.1500 psych opens 1.15156
Failure to hold 1.14775 confirms a fresh lower low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the USD-driven move
EUR/USD collapsed from 1.1590 to 1.1477 during the NY session after a hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision and strong US retail sales, slicing through the 1.1500 floor. RSI(14) sits near 29 after the impulsive drop, with price clawing back to the 1.1500 round number on a modest bounce.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1505
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1516, 1.1544
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14775 confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 1.15160 pivot would ease the post-FOMC selloff
Initial Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the USD move
The hawkish FOMC hold and a lifted dot plot triggered a sharp range break, dropping EUR/USD ~150 pips off the 1.1596 NY high to 1.14775. Price is now consolidating near 1.1490 below the 1.1500 round number, RSI(14) climbing off its lows as the impulse cools.
Support: 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1497, 1.1500, 1.15156
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1500 round number would ease post-FOMC downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.14775 swing low confirms a fresh lower low
FOMC/Warsh presser tone is the live driver of this move
20:30 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg after FOMC · RSI 28 · price 1.14895
Range break lower, below 1.1500 floor.
EUR/USD spent the session pinned near 1.1590 then collapsed through the 1.1500 floor on the hawkish FOMC hold and a blowout retail sales beat, sweeping down to 1.14775 before a shallow bounce to 1.1490. RSI(14) sits sub-30, reflecting how stretched the post-decision leg is, with the broken 1.1500 level now capping overhead.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1505
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1540, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim and M15 close back above 1.1500 would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.14775 opens the path to further downside
Fed presser tone tonight could extend or unwind this move
EUR/USD held 1.1590 through the European session before the hawkish FOMC hold and a 0.9% retail sales beat triggered a violent USD bid into the NY hours, collapsing price through the 1.1500 psych floor to a session low of 1.14775. RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 24 after a near-150-pip slide; price is hugging the lows with no recovery structure yet.
Support: 1.14775, 1.14835
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15156, 1.15387
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15000 psych would be first sign the post-FOMC selloff is stalling
Failure to hold 1.14775 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Thu 12:30 UTC US jobless claims / Philly Fed could extend the USD move
FOMC's hawkish hold (3.75% with the dot plot lifted) sent a sharp USD bid through the NY session, breaking the day's tight 1.1590–1.1615 range and dragging EUR/USD ~115 pips to 1.14775. Price is now consolidating just under the 1.1500 psych floor with RSI(14) deeply oversold near 23.
Support: 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1544, 1.1559
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15000 would ease the breakdown read
Loss of 1.14775 session low extends the down-leg
US jobless claims + Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could re-accelerate this move
EURUSD broke violently lower in the NY session after the Fed's hawkish hold and a blowout retail sales print drove a broad USD bid, slicing through the 1.1590 consolidation and falling ~110 pips to a 1.14775 low. RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 18 after the impulsive leg, with the close at 1.14873 holding just above the session low.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1544, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15440 would ease the breakdown pressure
Failure to hold 1.14775 confirms continuation lower
Warsh presser tone could extend or unwind this move
EUR/USD collapsed out of its 1.1590–1.1610 range after the Fed's hawkish hold and a blowout US retail sales print, slicing the 1.1500 floor and printing a session low of 1.14775. RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 18 and ATR has exploded on the impulse; price sits below both EMAs with no sign of stabilisation yet.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15156, 1.15387
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1500 would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.14775 confirms continuation lower
Warsh FOMC presser tone could extend or unwind the move
EUR/USD collapsed through the 1.1590 base into the NY session after a hawkish FOMC hold and a hot retail sales print lifted the dollar, slicing ~100 pips to a 1.14916 session low. RSI(14) is deep oversold near 21 and ATR has blown out past 140 pips, so swings are violent. Price now sits below the 1.1500 psych line with no nearby demand established.
Support: 1.14916, 1.1505
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15156, 1.15387
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1500 would ease the breakdown read
A close back above 1.15156 negates the lower-low sequence
Warsh's presser tone could extend or unwind this leg
Thu US jobless claims/Philly Fed may inject fresh volatility
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1590s range through London-NY until the FOMC hawkish hold and hot US retail sales (0.9% vs 0.5%) triggered a vertical break, dumping ~100 pips into 1.14916. RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 18 and ATR has blown out, marking impulsive USD-driven selling rather than orderly distribution.
Support: 1.14916, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15156, 1.15387
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15156 would ease the breakdown pressure
Failure to hold the 1.1500 psych level extends the leg toward the April low
Warsh presser still in play — further hawkish tone could deepen this move
EUR/USD collapsed out of its 1.1590 NY range to 1.1505 after a hawkish FOMC hold and a hot US retail sales print fired the dollar. RSI(14) is oversold near 23 and ATR is hugely elevated as the move is still extending; price closed at its lows into 1.1500.
Support: 1.1505, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1542, 1.1593
What it said to watch
Hold or break of 1.1500 April low defines whether the slide extends
Reclaim of 1.1542 would ease the immediate downside pressure
Warsh press-conference tone could further drive this move
EUR/USD held a tight range near 1.1590 through the European afternoon before a hawkish FOMC hold and a hot US retail sales print drove a vertical break to 1.1505, RSI(14) crashing sub-20. Price now sits at the lows, with the prior 1.1590 range floor flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.1505, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1566, 1.1591
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1566 would ease the downside break
Close below 1.1500 April low confirms a lower-low extension
Warsh first press conference tone could extend or unwind the FOMC move
EURUSD broke hard out of the 1.1585–1.1615 range during NY hours, dropping ~60 pips to 1.1535 as the hawkish FOMC hold and a strong US retail sales beat fired a USD bid. A bounce to 1.1566 was rejected and price is consolidating just above the 1.1535 session low, RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.15354, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15625, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15625 needed to negate the range break
Failure to hold 1.15354 opens the 1.1500 april low
Warsh presser tone could materially shift this read
EUR held a tight 1.1590 shelf through London before breaking hard into NY, dumping to 1.15354 after the hawkish Fed hold and strong US retail sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%). RSI(14) is deeply oversold near 26 and price sits well below EMA20/50; the 1.1556 bounce high caps the initial recovery attempt.
Support: 1.15354, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1556, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1556 would ease the breakdown read
M15 close back above 1.1590 invalidates the range break
Warsh's first press conference could materially shift this read
Range broke down on FOMC, attempting recovery off session low.
Hawkish Fed hold plus a strong US retail sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) spiked the USD into the NY session, snapping the day's tight 1.1590-1.1615 range and driving EUR/USD down to 1.15354. Price has since clawed back to 1.1560, RSI(14) lifting off oversold; the broken 1.1590 range floor now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.15354, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1566, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15900 would negate the FOMC breakdown
Failure to hold 1.15354 opens the path toward the 1.1500 april low
Warsh press conference tone could materially shift this read in the next hours
EUR/USD broke the 1.1585/1.1590 range floor and dumped to 1.15354 as the hawkish Fed hold plus a strong retail sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) bid the dollar. Price has since bounced to 1.1560, RSI(14) lifting off oversold near 37; the broken 1.1590 floor now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.1544, 1.15354
Resistance: 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1590 would invalidate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.15354 opens further downside toward 1.1500
Warsh's FOMC presser tone is the dominant near-term driver
The hawkish FOMC hold and a strong US retail sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) drove a sharp USD bid into the NY session, snapping the 1.1590–1.1614 range and dumping EUR/USD ~50 pips to a 1.15412 low. Price has stabilised with a shallow bounce to 1.1546, RSI(14) deeply oversold near 27.
Support: 1.15412, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1556, 1.1590, 1.1614
What it said to watch
Hold below 1.15412 confirms the lower low and opens the 1.1500 area
Reclaim of 1.1590 would invalidate the breakdown
Warsh's first press conference could materially extend or unwind this move
EUR/USD broke hard out of the 1.1590-1.1600 range during the NY session, dropping ~50 pips to 1.1541 on the hawkish Fed hold and a strong US retail sales beat. RSI(14) deeply oversold near 26 after the impulse; the bounce stalled at 1.1556 and price sits back at 1.1547.
Support: 1.15412, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1556, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1590 would invalidate the breakdown read
Warsh presser tone could materially shift this read in the next bars
Failure to hold 1.1541 opens the path toward the 1.1500 april low
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1590-1.1595 coil through late NY before the FOMC/Warsh outcome and a firm US retail sales beat (0.9%) drove a 50-pip vertical drop to a session low at 1.15412. Price now sits at 1.1546, far below the broke zone at 1.1590, RSI(14) sub-30.
Support: 1.15412, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1590
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.1590 break zone would neutralise the breakdown
Continued slide toward the 1.1500 april low pivot if 1.1544 fails to hold
Warsh presser still live — further volatility can extend this move
18:30 UTC
Downtrend, sharp impulsive leg · RSI 30 · price 1.1546
Range break to the downside.
EUR/USD coiled around 1.1590 through NY hours then dropped ~50 pips in a single bar on the FOMC decision, printing 1.15412 before settling near 1.1546. Price is now well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 30 after the impulsive break.
Support: 1.15412, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1591
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1591 would neutralise the downside break
Failure to hold 1.15412 opens the path toward the 1.1500 april low
Warsh press conference still in play — further FOMC headlines can extend this move
EUR/USD spent the prior 24h drifting from 1.1616 toward a tight 1.1585–1.1596 base, then the FOMC bar smashed ~40 pips lower to 1.1550 as the decision/Warsh tone hit. The range broke decisively to the downside and RSI(14) collapsed toward 28.
Support: 1.1550, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.16161
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1590 would invalidate the breakdown
Warsh press conference still live — volatility likely to extend
Failure to hold 1.1550 opens the path to the 1.1500 April low
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1588-1.1616 range through the NY session before the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC slammed it down 40+ pips to a session low at 1.15501 on a hawkish-hold USD bid. Range floor near 1.1590 gave way decisively; price is now below both EMAs with RSI(14) sliding toward 30.
Support: 1.15501, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference (18:30 UTC) still live — a dovish tone could unwind this USD spike
Failure to reclaim 1.15900 keeps the lower-low structure intact
EUR/USD drifted lower through the NY session, swept the 1.1580 area and recovered to consolidate around 1.1590 into the FOMC decision. Chain of lower highs intact, with price coiling in a tight 1.1588–1.1593 band and RSI flat near 46.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15807
Resistance: 1.1599
What it said to watch
FOMC decision is live now and will likely break this consolidation
M15 close above 1.1599 negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.15807 session low confirms continuation lower
EUR/USD drifted off 1.1616 through the NY session and swept 1.1580 before recovering, now coiling around 1.1591 as the USD softened on a one-week-low DXY. Price is pinned in a tight 1.1585–1.1597 range into the FOMC decision, RSI(14) flat near 46.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1580
Resistance: 1.1597, 1.1602
What it said to watch
FOMC decision now and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY session sold EURUSD from 1.16025 down to a session low of 1.15807, the USD firmer after the strong US retail sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%). Price has since stalled into a tight 1.1589–1.1593 range with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s as flows sit in pre-FOMC limbo.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15863
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1614
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser will override this intraday read
Close below 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.16025 swing high negates the NY downtrend
EUR/USD slid from 1.1616 to a session low of 1.15807 through the NY session, then coiled tightly around 1.1590 into the FOMC. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) mid-40s; no setup in play while the market waits on the Fed.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1585
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.1600, 1.16019
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC is imminent and will dominate the next bars
M15 close above 1.1594 breaks the lower-high chain
EURUSD drifted off 1.1614 through the NY session, swept the session low to 1.15807 then recovered into a tight 1.15876–1.15937 range as flows stalled pre-FOMC. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) mid-range near 46; consolidation, no setup in play.
Support: 1.15876, 1.15807
Resistance: 1.15937, 1.1600, 1.16025
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~30min (18:00 UTC) plus Warsh presser — dominant driver, can break this range either way
Close below 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above 1.15937 then 1.1600 invalidates the consolidation downside read
17:30 UTC
Downtrend, now flat at lows · RSI 44 · price 1.15904
Consolidating above session low after sweep.
EUR/USD drifted off 1.1616 through the NY session, sweeping the lows to 1.15807 before recovering. Price is now coiled in a tight 1.1588–1.1594 band as flows stall ahead of the FOMC decision; RSI(14) mid-40s, no momentum either way.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15876
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.16019
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~30min is the dominant driver and can break this range in either direction
NY session sold EUR off the 1.16025 high to a 1.15807 swing low as traders de-risked into the Fed; price has since stalled around 1.1590 under a chain of lower highs. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 44, no extreme. Consolidation in play below the 200-DMA cap noted in the macro read.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1589
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.1600, 1.16025
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser will override this micro-structure
M15 close back above 1.15940 challenges the lower-high chain
Loss of 1.15807 confirms continuation of the down-leg
Lower highs into a sweep, now consolidating near lows.
NY session ground lower from 1.1614 through the 200-DMA region, swept 1.1581 then bounced as the dollar stayed soft into Warsh's first FOMC. Price now boxed 1.1585-1.1594 below both EMAs, RSI(14) mid-40s after basing off the lows.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15851
Resistance: 1.15937, 1.1600, 1.16025
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC will drive the next leg
Loss of 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower low
Close back above 1.1600 invalidates the downside drift
NY session ground lower in a chain of lower highs, sweeping the session low at 1.15807 before a shallow bounce to 1.15990 faded. Price is now drifting back toward 1.15860 with EUR pinned around 1.1600 ahead of FOMC; ATR(14) near 45 pips.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1586
Resistance: 1.1599, 1.1604
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~1h is the dominant driver and could break this consolidation either way
M15 close below 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.15990 would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Lower highs / lower lows, basing near session low.
EURUSD ground lower through the NY session, sweeping the 1.15807 low before buyers stepped in and price stabilised around 1.1590. RSI(14) recovered off oversold into the mid-40s; price holds below EMA20 and EMA50 as it coils into the FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16019, 1.16161
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~1h) is the dominant near-term driver and can break this consolidation either way
Failure to hold 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower-low
Close back above 1.16019 invalidates the downside read
Lower highs and lower lows, basing after session low.
EURUSD sold off through the NY session, breaking the 1.1600 round number and sweeping the session low at 1.15807 before steadying around 1.1590. RSI(14) near 44 off the lows; price now consolidating in a tight band as traders sit on hands into the FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16025
What it said to watch
FOMC decision ~18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser is the dominant near-term driver and can override this read
Reclaim of 1.16000 would neutralise the lower-high structure
M15 close below 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
EURUSD ground lower through the NY session, sweeping the session low at 1.15807 before stabilising near 1.1590. Price is now coiling in a tight 1.1589-1.1594 band below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI flat around 43 as traders sit on hands ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1589
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.16019
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower low
EUR slid through the NY session in a steady chain of lower highs, with a sweep of 1.15807 before buyers nudged it back into a tight 1.1589-1.1594 range. Move stalls into the FOMC, the dominant near-term driver; RSI(14) near 43, no momentum extreme.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15863
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.16025, 1.16137
What it said to watch
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) + Warsh presser is ~1.5h out and can reset this read
Close below 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.15940 needed to challenge the 1.16025 swing high
EURUSD ground lower through the NY session, sweeping 1.15807 before buyers stepped in for a shallow bounce. Price now coils between 1.1589 and 1.1594 with RSI(14) mid-range near 44, sitting below both EMAs as traders sit on hands into the FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15863
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.16025, 1.16144
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC will dominate the next bars
Close back below 1.15807 confirms downtrend continuation
Reclaim of 1.16025 invalidates the lower-high structure
16:15 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising · RSI 43 · price 1.15928
Lower highs into a session low, now consolidating.
EUR slid through the NY session from 1.1617, with a sweep of the session low at 1.15807 before recovering to consolidate around 1.1592. Price sits below EMA20/50 and capped under the 200-DMA, RSI(14) mid-range near 43 with traders parked ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1586
Resistance: 1.16019, 1.16147
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
M15 close back above 1.16019 invalidates the downtrend read
EURUSD ground lower through the NY session from 1.1617 toward a sweep of 1.15807, with the dollar capped near a one-week low as traders sit on hands into the FOMC. Price has since stabilised around 1.1592 and RSI(14) is recovering off its lows, but the lower-high chain off 1.16137 stays intact.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16019, 1.16137
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD bled lower through the NY session from 1.1619, sweeping the 1.15807 low before reclaiming 1.1592, RSI(14) basing in the mid-40s as crude-driven USD softness and a firm Core HICP print keep two-way flow alive. Price holds below EMA20/50 with lower highs intact; 1.15990 caps the bounce so far.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15863
Resistance: 1.1599, 1.16025, 1.1614
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (Warsh's first) could materially shift this read
Close back above 1.15990 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower-low
EURUSD drifted lower through the NY session, holding under the 1.16000 psych level after stalling at the 200-DMA earlier in the window. A sweep of the session low at 1.15807 was bought back to 1.1593, but price remains below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1589
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16025
What it said to watch
FOMC decision/tone tonight could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.16000 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.1550
NY session sold EUR/USD lower from 1.16025 into a 1.15807 spike low that was immediately reclaimed, leaving a sweep wick. Price has based around 1.1592 with RSI(14) cooling near 41; the move is grinding pre-FOMC rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1585
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1614
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~2h (18:00 UTC) plus Warsh presser will likely override this structure
M15 close below 1.15807 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.16025 negates the lower-high sequence
NY session ground lower in a clean chain of lower highs after EUR stalled below the 200-DMA; price swept the session low at 1.15807 then recovered to 1.1592. RSI(14) near 43, no oversold extreme — consolidating just above the low ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16019, 1.16137
What it said to watch
FOMC decision ~2h away can override this structural read
Close back above 1.16019 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.15807 confirms continuation toward 1.15500
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum building · RSI 41 · price 1.1592
Lower highs and lower lows through NY.
EUR/USD drifted lower through the NY session, breaking below 1.1600 along a chain of lower highs and sweeping the session low at 1.1581 before a modest bounce to 1.1592. RSI(14) near 41 with price under both EMA20 and EMA50. FOMC decision ~2.5h out is the dominant driver.
Support: 1.1581, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1602, 1.1614
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
close back above 1.1602 would ease the downside pressure
failure to hold 1.1581 opens 1.1550
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, mild bounce · RSI 42 · price 1.1592
Lower highs, lower lows into session low.
EURUSD rolled through the 1.1600 round number during NY hours, printing a session low at 1.1581 before a shallow bounce to 1.1592; price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI mid-40s. ATR ~5 pips. Move comes as the dollar steadies on strong US Retail Sales ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.1581, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1617
What it said to watch
FOMC decision ~2.5h away — dominant driver, can override this read
M15 close back above 1.1600 neutralises the lower-low sequence
Loss of 1.1581 session low opens 1.1550 floor
15:16 UTC
Downtrend into NY session · RSI 38 · price 1.15886
Lower highs, fresh session low swept.
EUR/USD ground lower through the NY session, printing a chain of lower highs before a sweep of the session low at 1.15807 on the heaviest bar of the window, with a shallow bounce to 1.15886. The leg follows a strong US Retail Sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) as traders square ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.15807, 1.1585
Resistance: 1.1594, 1.16019, 1.16137
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser later today is the dominant driver for this read
A reclaim above the 1.16019 round number invalidates the lower-high sequence
A clean break of 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
EURUSD ground lower through NY hours, sweeping to 1.15807 before a shallow bounce to 1.15886, with traders sitting on hands ahead of the FOMC and a strong US Retail Sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%). Price holds below EMA20/50 in a clean lower-high chain off 1.16193; RSI(14) near 37, off but not at extremes.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15851, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16137, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~2-3h could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.15807 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.16025 invalidates the intraday downtrend
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding into FOMC · RSI 43 · price 1.15929
Lower highs, probing session low.
EUR/USD drifted lower through the NY session, sliding off 1.16144 to print a session low at 1.15851 after the strong US Retail Sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%). The bounce to 1.16025 was sold and price is hovering just above the session low into the FOMC; RSI(14) near 43, both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16144
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC dominate the next bars
M15 close below 1.15851 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.16025 needed to negate the lower-high sequence
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, drifting into FOMC · RSI 42 · price 1.15929
Lower highs, retesting session low.
EUR/USD ground lower through the NY session, posting a string of lower highs after rejection at 1.16025 and now slipping back toward the 1.15851 session low. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, all while traders sit on hands ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16137
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC + Warsh presser will dominate the next read
M15 close below 1.15851 confirms a fresh lower low toward 1.1550
Reclaim of 1.16025 needed to break the lower-high sequence
EUR/USD ground lower through the NY session after a strong US Retail Sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) firmed the dollar, printing a swing low at 1.15851 before a bounce to 1.16025 faded. Lower highs intact, RSI(14) mid-range near 43, price back below EMA20/50. FOMC and Warsh presser in roughly 3h are the dominant near-term risk.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1580
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16137, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~3h could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.16025 bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.15851 confirms continuation of the lower-low chain
14:45 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 1.15944
Lower highs and lower lows since London.
EUR/USD ground lower through the NY morning, printing a session low at 1.1585 before a shallow bounce to 1.16025 was rejected, and price now sits at 1.1594 below both EMAs. Move tracks USD firmness after the strong Retail Sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) as traders square into the FOMC.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16147
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision and dot plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close back above 1.16025 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.1585 opens the path toward 1.1550
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 44 · price 1.15927
Lower highs into session low, corrective bounce.
EUR/USD ground lower through the NY session from the 1.1619 session high to a low at 1.15851, then bounced to 1.16025 before fading back to 1.1593 as traders square into the FOMC. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 44 with price pinned below EMA20/50; the rebound is so far just a retest of broken support.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16137, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~3.5h is the dominant near-term driver for this pair
M15 close back above 1.16025 invalidates the lower-high chain
Lower highs off 1.16193, consolidating above session low.
EUR/USD drifted off the 1.16193 session high through London-NY hours, marking a fresh session low at 1.15851 before bouncing to the 50% retrace near 1.16025 and slipping back to 1.15927. Price is range-bound and pinned below EMA20/50 as traders sit on hands ahead of the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15891
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1608, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Close below 1.15851 confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.16025 needed to negate the lower-high sequence
Lower high vs prior congestion, holding above 1.15851.
London session sold EUR/USD from the 1.1614 congestion down to a session low of 1.15851, and the NY open bounce stalled at 1.16025 — a ~61.8% retrace of that leg — leaving price capped under the 1.1600 round number. RSI(14) near 46, ATR roughly 5.5 pips; structure is a lower high holding above the session low into the Fed.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15891
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16025, 1.1614
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~3.75h out) plus Warsh presser can override this read entirely
M15 close back above 1.16000 reopens the 1.16025 NY high and 1.16140 congestion
Loss of 1.15851 confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, late bounce · RSI 47 · price 1.15977
Lower highs off 1.1619, sweep of session low then recovery.
NY session sold EUR from the 1.1619 high down to a 1.15851 session low before buyers reclaimed 1.1600; price now consolidating near 1.1598, below EMA20/50. Move stalls into the FOMC decision with RSI mid-range and no clear setup.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1590
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16137
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~4h) can override this read
Close below 1.15851 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.16025 needed to challenge the 1.16137 prior high
Lower highs into NY, bounce off session low capped.
EUR/USD drifted off the 1.16193 session high through London, broke the 1.1614 range floor and printed a 1.15851 low before bouncing to retest 1.1600. The recovery has stalled into NY hours with RSI(14) mid-range, leaving price pinned below 1.1600 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.15908, 1.15851
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1600, 1.1614
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC is the dominant risk and can override this read
Reclaim and hold above 1.16025 negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.15851 confirms continuation of the down leg
Lower highs from morning peak, session low printed then recovery.
EUR slid from the 1.16193 morning high through a chain of lower highs to a session low of 1.15851 during NY hours, then recovered to 1.15977, now sitting on EMA20 but below EMA50. FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the dominant risk and will likely override the current intraday structure.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1590
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.16025 negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.15851 confirms continuation of the lower-low pattern
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD peaked at the 1.16193 session high then ground out lower highs all day, sweeping the 1.15851 low before buyers lifted it back to 1.1597 — pair coiled around 1.1600 with RSI mid-range. The grind is consistent with the digest's pre-FOMC standoff: hot US Retail Sales (0.9% vs 0.5%) couldn't extend the dollar into the decision.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~4h out) is the dominant driver for the next bars
EUR/USD held a 1.1600–1.1619 range through London before breaking down into NY hours, sweeping a session low at 1.1585; buyers recovered the figure and price now sits at 1.1597. This intraday decline leaves the pair coiled below EMA20 ahead of the FOMC, which is the dominant near-term driver.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1602, 1.1619
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (~4h) likely to break this range and override intraday structure
Close back above 1.1619 reopens the intraday high
Failure to hold 1.1585 session low exposes the 1.1555 pivot
13:31 UTC
Ranging around 1.1600, recovering off lows · RSI 53 · price 1.16004
Range with a swept low and full recovery.
EURUSD coiled around 1.1600 into FOMC; NY hours dipped to sweep the lows at 1.15851 before buyers reclaimed the figure back to 1.16004. Price sits mid-range below the 200-DMA wall with the FOMC decision and dot plot the dominant near-term driver.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15958
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.16161, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.16025 reopens the 1.16161 session high
Loss of 1.15851 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
13:31 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 54 · price 1.16004
Intraday range, bounce from session low.
EUR/USD slid into a session low at 1.15851 during NY hours, then bounced to reclaim 1.1600 as traders sit on hands ahead of the FOMC. RSI(14) recovered to the mid-50s; the pair is grinding the 1.1585–1.1619 range with the 200-DMA cap overhead.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15908
Resistance: 1.16025, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC will drive the next leg — range read invalid on the outcome
Close back below 1.15851 confirms a lower low, with swing low at 1.15908 the first marker
Reclaim of 1.16140 supply reopens session high at 1.16193
EURUSD ground around 1.1610–1.1615 through the European hours before flushing to a session low at 1.15851 during NY trade; buyers stepped in and reclaimed the 1.1600 round number. The recovery has been sharp but price sits below the 1.1614 swing high, keeping the day rangebound.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15851
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales today could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1600 reopens the 1.15851 session low
M15 close above 1.16140 would re-test the 1.16193 session high
13:16 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 52 · price 1.16013
Intraday range, swept session low then bounced.
EURUSD swept the session low at 1.15851 around midday then recovered back above the 1.1600 round number, RSI(14) rebounding to mid-range. Price has coiled near 1.1600 all session, capped well below the 1.16144 swing high as the market sits on its hands into the FOMC.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15851
Resistance: 1.16144, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.16144 reopens the path to 1.16193 prior high
Failure to hold 1.1600 puts 1.15851 session low back in play
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.15974
Range break lower, recovering toward 1.1600.
EURUSD broke down from its 1.1605–1.1618 range through late London, sliding to a session low at 1.15851 before a bounce around the US Retail Sales release lifted it back toward the 1.1600 psych level. RSI(14) recovering from short-term lows; price still sits below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16144
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1600 psych would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of 1.15851 exposes the 1.1555 pivot
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 44 · price 1.15974
Lower highs/lower lows, mild recovery.
EUR slid through the London-NY transition from 1.16043 down to a session low at 1.15851 before a recovery toward 1.15974, with gains capped below the 1.16000 round number ahead of FOMC. RSI(14) is recovering from the dip but price holds under EMA20/50 — the recent leg remains a chain of lower lows.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15891
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16043
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above 1.16043 invalidates the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.15851 confirms continuation of the downtrend
EUR/USD slid out of the 1.1610 range through London hours and broke the 1.1600 round number ahead of FOMC, bottoming at 1.15851 before a shallow bounce to 1.15947. RSI(14) near 40, no oversold extreme; the prior range floor at 1.16050 now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1605, 1.16184
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.16000 negates the breakdown read
Loss of 1.15851 confirms continuation lower toward 1.1555
Retail Sales 12:30 UTC then FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 43 · price 1.15947
Lower highs and lower lows off 1.1604.
EURUSD broke down out of its mid-session 1.1610 coil during the early NY session, sliding to a 1.15851 session low before a modest bounce to 1.15947. Price now sits below EMA20/50 with the 1.1600 round level flipped to overhead resistance; the move tracks USD firmness into FOMC.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16037, 1.1620
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales will dominate the next bars
Loss of 1.15851 exposes the 1.15555 must-hold pivot
Reclaim of 1.16000 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 34 · price 1.15923
Range break below 1.1600 into a lower low.
After holding a tight 1.1600–1.1615 band through Asia and early London, EURUSD broke lower into the NY session, slicing the 1.1600 round number and printing a session low at 1.15851 before a shallow bounce to 1.1592. RSI(14) sits near 34, stretched but not extreme, and price trades below EMA20/50 with the 200-day cap cited overhead — moves muted into the FOMC decision tonight.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16043, 1.16184
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~5.5h is the dominant catalyst and can reset this read
Reclaim of 1.16000 round number negates the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.15851 session low opens the 1.15555 pivot
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 39 · price 1.15923
Broke below intraday range, new lows.
EURUSD lost the 1.1600-1.1618 consolidation into the NY session, sliding to a session low of 1.15851 around the US Retail Sales print before a small bounce to 1.15923. RSI(14) near 38 reflects the momentum shift, with the move sitting below both EMAs. FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1604, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.16040 negates the breakdown
Loss of 1.15851 exposes the 1.1555 pivot
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD slid off the 1.16140 area and broke the 1.1600 handle into the European afternoon, printing a session low at 1.15851 before a shallow bounce to 1.15915, RSI(14) near 35. Move comes in pre-FOMC limbo with the 200-day cap noted overhead, and tight ATR (~5 pips) reflects positioning ahead of US data.
Support: 1.15851, 1.15555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.16000 negates the intraday breakdown
Loss of 1.15851 exposes the 1.1555 pivot
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, late-session leg lower · RSI 38 · price 1.15915
Lower highs, lower lows below 1.1600.
EUR/USD slid out of its 1.1610 consolidation into the NY session, breaking below the 1.1600 round number to print a session low at 1.15851 before a small bounce. RSI(14) near 38 with price pinned under EMA20/50; the move follows pre-FOMC USD firmness and rejection at the 200-day EMA overhead.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16144, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1600 would neutralise the downside break
Loss of 1.15851 exposes the 1.15550 range floor
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC then FOMC 18:00 UTC can override this read
EURUSD rolled over through the London-NY transition, breaking the 1.1600 psych level after stalling repeatedly at the day high near 1.16193. Price is pressing the session low at 1.15851 with RSI(14) at 34, and the move comes pre-FOMC with sellers leaning on a chain of lower highs.
Support: 1.15851, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16147, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.15851 exposes the 1.1555 pivot
Reclaim of 1.1600 neutralises the breakdown read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC can override this structure
EUR/USD lost the 1.1600 psych level in the last two hours and printed a fresh session low at 1.15851, with the long 1.1610–1.1614 consolidation giving way ahead of FOMC. RSI(14) near 31, short-term stretched but the descent is orderly.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1580, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 1.1600 invalidates the breakdown read
Loss of 1.15850 exposes the 1.15550 pivot
11:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 31 · price 1.15893
Range break lower, lower lows printing.
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1600-1.1614 range through the European afternoon, then broke down through 1.1600 into the NY pre-open, printing lower lows toward the session low at 1.15877. RSI(14) near 31 reflects the sharp leg lower; price sits below EMA20/50 as traders position into Retail Sales and FOMC.
Support: 1.15877, 1.1580
Resistance: 1.16043, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Close below 1.15877 confirms downside continuation toward 1.1580
Reclaim of 1.16043 negates the breakdown read
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) can override this structure
EURUSD rolled over from the 1.16193 session high through a long mid-window consolidation and has now broken the 1.1600 round number, printing fresh lows at 1.15893 with RSI(14) near 29. Sellers extended into the London-NY transition; the 1.15877 swing low is the next reference.
Support: 1.15877, 1.1580
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1604, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (Warsh's first) can fully reset this read
Failure to hold 1.15877 confirms continuation toward 1.1580
Reclaim of 1.1600 invalidates the breakdown
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, late-session leg lower · RSI 36 · price 1.15927
Broke consolidation, lower highs into session low.
EURUSD broke below the 1.1610–1.1615 consolidation that held through the European morning, sliding to a session low at 1.1591 after rejection at the 1.1619 day high earlier in the window. RSI(14) near 36 with price below EMA20 and EMA50; the move follows a chain of lower highs as traders de-risk ahead of US Retail Sales and the FOMC.
Support: 1.15908, 1.15877, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1604, 1.16144, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1604 negates the range break
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) likely to dictate the next leg
Failure to hold 1.1591 exposes the 1.1588 day low and macro 1.1555 must-hold support
EURUSD broke below the 1.1600 psych level in the last two hours of the London-NY session, printing a fresh session low at 1.15908 with RSI(14) near 33. Price slipped from the 1.16193 session high in a clean lower-high chain; supply capped each bounce sub-1.1614. FOMC plus US Retail Sales later today is the dominant risk into the next bars.
Support: 1.15908, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.16000 would neutralise the sub-1.1600 break
Loss of 1.15877 swing low confirms the lower-low extension
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Consolidation broken to the downside toward session lows.
EURUSD slid off the 1.1614 consolidation shelf to session lows near 1.1595 in the last hour, breaking the tight Asia/early-Europe range as the USD found a pre-FOMC bid. RSI(14) cooled into the high-30s and price is now probing the 1.15950 session low with a shallow bounce.
Support: 1.1595, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.15950 session low exposes the 1.15877 swing low
Reclaim of 1.16140 prior high negates the downside break
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:15 UTC
Ranged, breaking lower · RSI 40 · price 1.15963
Downside break of intraday range.
EURUSD ground sideways around 1.1610 through the London session, then broke below the 1.1600 handle into the NY hours, printing a session low at 1.15954 with RSI(14) cooling to ~40. Move sits below EMA20/50 as the pair stays pinned ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.15954, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision in ~4h is the dominant near-term driver for this read
Reclaim above 1.16140 negates the downside break
Loss of 1.15877 confirms a lower low
11:00 UTC
Ranging, drifting lower late · RSI 42 · price 1.15991
Range-bound below session highs.
EURUSD ranged 1.1595–1.1620 through London, then slipped to a session low of 1.15954 before a shallow bounce to 1.15991; price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) cooling near 41. Pair pinned around the 1.1600 handle in pre-FOMC limbo, with the US decision at 18:00 UTC the dominant near-term driver.
Support: 1.15954, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16137, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.15954 exposes the 1.15877 prior low
Reclaim of 1.16137 puts the session high at 1.16193 back in play
FOMC decision and Retail Sales later today could break this range
11:00 UTC
Range-bound, no clear direction · RSI 39 · price 1.15991
Tight range, recent break below 1.1600.
EURUSD pinned below the 200-day EMA near 1.1600 all session, then slipped below the handle on the last few bars to a session low of 1.15954. RSI(14) at ~38 reflects the soft tilt but no extreme; price is grinding ahead of today's FOMC and US Retail Sales.
Support: 1.15954, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16056, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.16056 would neutralise the late-session break lower
Loss of 1.15877 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.1555
FOMC and US Retail Sales today could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Range, breaking lower · RSI 42 · price 1.15973
Tight consolidation, downside break attempt.
A tight 1.1600–1.1614 consolidation through London hours broke lower into the European session, price slipping to 1.1597 with RSI(14) under 45. The 1.1600 handle, prior support, now caps as resistance ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 1.15933, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1604, 1.1614
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1600 negates the downside break
Loss of 1.15877 session low extends the lower-low sequence
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Range, tilting lower · RSI 39 · price 1.15973
Intraday range, fresh downside probe.
EURUSD spent most of the Asia-London window pinned in a 1.1588-1.16193 range around the 1.1600 handle, capped below the 200-day EMA. The last bar broke down through the 1.1610 consolidation to 1.1595, RSI(14) cooling toward 39, with the soft USD into the FOMC failing to lift the pair.
Support: 1.1595, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.1614 range top negates the downside break
Loss of 1.1588 session low exposes the 1.1555 area
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could reset this range
10:31 UTC
Ranging, drifting lower within range · RSI 44 · price 1.16022
Range, price in lower half below EMAs.
EURUSD is pinned in a tight 1.15978-1.16193 range, grinding around the 1.1600 handle and now sitting in the lower half below both EMAs after rejecting the 1.16147 swing high. Price stalled just above 1.1600 as the soft-USD theme on the US-Iran deal keeps the pair bid but capped ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15978, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16147, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser later today is the dominant near-term driver for this range
M15 close below 1.15978 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.15877 session low
Reclaim of 1.16147 puts the 1.16193 session high back in play
10:30 UTC
Ranging, no momentum · RSI 44 · price 1.16022
Balanced range around 1.1600.
EURUSD is grinding sideways around 1.1600, pinned below its 200-day EMA cap into the FOMC, with price sitting near the 50% retrace of the London rally off 1.1588. RSI(14) is mid-range and ATR has compressed to ~5 pips — no setup in play, just chop between 1.1598 and 1.1614.
Support: 1.1598, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1618
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1588 confirms a lower low and opens the 1.1555 area
Reclaim of 1.1618 puts the 1.1650 cap back in focus
10:16 UTC
Range, drifting lower into NY · RSI 47 · price 1.16025
Ranging 1.1598–1.1620, recent lower highs.
EURUSD pinned in a 1.1598–1.1620 range through the European session, grinding the 1.1600 handle below its short EMAs after rejection at 1.1620. Last NY pre-session leg dipped to 1.1598 before a shallow bounce; RSI(14) neutral near 46 with ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1598, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1620
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC are the dominant near-term drivers and could break this range
EURUSD pinned in a 1.1598-1.1618 range through the London session, grinding the 1.1600 handle below the 200-day EMA cap noted in the macro read. A push to 1.16137 was rejected and price slid to 1.15978 before stabilising near 1.1602; RSI(14) mid-40s, ATR tight at ~5 pips — pre-FOMC compression.
Support: 1.15978, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16137, 1.16184
What it said to watch
FOMC decision/dots at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break this range
M15 close below 1.1598 opens the path toward 1.1555
Reclaim of 1.16137 puts the 1.1618 session high back in play
10:01 UTC
Ranging, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.16017
Range-bound near lower edge.
EURUSD is pinned around the 1.1600 handle in pre-FOMC limbo, drifting to the lower edge of a 1.1598-1.1620 range after rejecting 1.16144 during NY hours. ATR is compressed near 6 pips and RSI sits mid-low, reflecting thin, range-bound trade ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15978, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16144, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser today could materially shift this read
Close below 1.1598 exposes the 1.15877 session low
Close above 1.16144 reopens the 1.16193 range top
10:00 UTC
Ranging, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.16017
Range pinned at 1.1600 handle.
EURUSD is grinding around the 1.1600 handle in a tight range, EUR firm above the figure for a third day on a softer USD but capped near 1.16193. Last few hours saw a slide off 1.16140 back to the round number into the pre-FOMC lull, RSI(14) mid-range with no momentum extreme.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1596, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16140 reopens the 1.16193 session high
Loss of 1.15960 exposes the 1.15877 session low
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC later today could break this range
09:45 UTC
Ranging, drift lower late · RSI 44 · price 1.16051
Range, pinned around 1.1600.
EURUSD chopped in a 1.1588-1.1619 band over the last 24h, with a rejection at the 1.1619 session high mid-window before a late drift back to 1.1605. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43; the pair stays pinned around the 1.1600 handle awaiting the FOMC.
Support: 1.1598, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1619
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser later today is the dominant driver for this read
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could front-run a move
M15 close below 1.1588 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.1619 reopens the 1.1650 area
09:45 UTC
Ranging, no clear direction · RSI 44 · price 1.16051
Range, pinned near 1.1600 pre-FOMC.
EURUSD ground inside a 1.1588-1.1618 band through the London session, pinned around the 1.1600 handle below the 200-day stall ahead of the FOMC. The latest leg slipped from 1.1614 to 1.1598 before a shallow bounce to 1.1605; price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI mid-range.
Support: 1.1598, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1618
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision and Warsh presser at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1588 confirms a lower low and exposes range extension
Close above 1.1618 breaks the range top toward 1.1650
EURUSD is pinned around 1.1600, ranging 1.1590-1.1620 through the session with price slipping back under EMA20/50 after the 1.16193 high faded. No setup in play — the pair is parked ahead of US Retail Sales and the FOMC. RSI(14) flat near 46.
Support: 1.15978, 1.15909
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC later today are the dominant drivers — either can break this range
Loss of 1.15909 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.1555
M15 close above 1.16193 reasserts the range top
09:30 UTC
Range, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 1.16017
Consolidation under session high, pinned at 1.1600.
EURUSD ground sideways through the European session, capped at 1.16193 and now slipping back to the 1.1600 handle as the pair coils below its 200-day EMA. Price has retraced the 1.15877–1.16193 leg and sits on the 61.8% fib at 1.1602 with RSI mid-range.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term driver for this range
M15 close below 1.16000 exposes 1.15877 swing low
Reclaim of 1.16140 reopens the 1.16193 session high
09:16 UTC
Range-bound, drifting lower late · RSI 41 · price 1.16007
Intraday range, lower highs into the close.
EURUSD pinned near 1.1600, capped on rejection at the 1.16193 session high and grinding back to the lower half of the 1.1588–1.1619 range. RSI(14) near 41 with ATR around 4.5 pips — flow is thin as traders square up into the Fed.
Support: 1.15945, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision later today and US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) can break this range either way
Loss of 1.15877 confirms a lower low and extends the late-session slide
Reclaim of 1.16140 reopens the 1.16193 session high
09:16 UTC
Ranging, late drift lower · RSI 41 · price 1.16007
Range with lower highs into session.
EUR/USD held a 1.1590-1.1620 range through the London session before drifting back to the 1.1600 psych level, with sellers fading each push under the session high at 1.16193. RSI(14) at 41, price below EMA20/50; move stalls at the 200-DMA cap per the macro read into FOMC.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15978, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1608, 1.16147, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.15978 confirms a lower-low and exposes 1.15877
Reclaim of 1.16147 needed to challenge the 1.16193 session high
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC later today can materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Range, drifting lower · RSI 39 · price 1.1601
Rangebound 1.1588–1.1619, fading off session high.
EURUSD pinned in a 1.1588–1.1619 range through the London session, now drifting toward the lower half at 1.1601 with RSI(14) near 39. Repeated rejections at the 1.1619 session high kept the pair below the 200-DMA cap ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 1.1595, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1619
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1588 exposes the 1.1555 pivot
Close above 1.1619 reopens the session high cap
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD pinned near 1.1600 in a tight 1.1588-1.1619 range, with the mid-session push to 1.1619 rejected and price drifting back below EMA20/50 into the FOMC. Soft volume and sub-5-pip ATR show traders squaring up rather than committing.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1619, 1.1614
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1588 confirms a lower-low and breaks the range floor
Reclaim of 1.1614 reopens the 1.1619 session high
FOMC and US Retail Sales later today could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Range, recent slip lower · RSI 41 · price 1.16009
Ranging, slipped below 1.1610 floor.
EUR/USD drifted out of the tight 1.1610-1.1614 consolidation to 1.16009 in the London session, RSI(14) cooling toward 40. Pair pinned near the 200-day EMA per context, range-bound and compressed ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 1.15978, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.15978 opens the 1.15877 prior low
Reclaim of 1.16140 puts the 1.1610-1.1614 band back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD flatlined around 1.1610 most of the window then slipped to 1.1601 in the last hour, pinned at the 200-day EMA overhead per the macro read. Rallies stalled at 1.16193 mid-session; price now leaning on the 1.1600 round number with RSI cooling into the low 40s.
Support: 1.15978, 1.1600, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16144, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver and could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.15978 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.15877 session low
Reclaim of 1.16144 returns price into the upper range
08:30 UTC
Range, drifting lower into NY · RSI 44 · price 1.16042
Compressed range, mid-zone.
EURUSD pinned in a 1.1588-1.1619 range, flatlining near the 200-day EMA as traders sit out ahead of FOMC. Price slipped back below EMA20/50 into the London-NY transition after rejection at the 1.1619 session high; RSI(14) neutral near 44, no setup in play.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1619
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1619 reopens the range top toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1600 exposes the 1.1588 swing low
FOMC decision later today is the dominant driver and will override this range read
08:30 UTC
Rangebound, no momentum · RSI 44 · price 1.16042
Compressed range below session high.
EURUSD is pinned in a tight 1.1600–1.1619 range, flatlining near the 200-day EMA into the FOMC as positioning stalls. Price sits just below EMA20/50 around the 50% retrace of the London-NY swing, RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s with no momentum either way.
Support: 1.16004, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver — could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the session high
Failure to hold 1.16004 exposes the 1.15877 london low
08:15 UTC
Rangebound, flat · RSI 49 · price 1.16065
Compressed range under 200-day EMA.
EUR/USD pinned around 1.1606, ranging 1.1588–1.1619 and stalling under the 200-day EMA as traders sit out ahead of FOMC. RSI(14) flat near 49, no momentum either way; the upbeat ZEW prints gave only a fleeting bid that capped near 1.1619.
Support: 1.16035, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC will materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.15877 exposes the 1.1555 floor
08:15 UTC
Rangebound, no momentum · RSI 49 · price 1.16065
Consolidation around 1.1610.
EUR/USD is flatlining near 1.1610, pinned in a 1.1588-1.1619 range as traders sit on hands into the FOMC. The 1.16193 session high marks the 200-day EMA cap that capped the early-London bid; RSI(14) sits mid-range with no momentum either way.
Support: 1.16035, 1.1600, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 breaks the range and exposes the 200d ema cap
Failure to hold 1.16035 turns focus to the 1.15877 swing low
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) + Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) can break this range read
08:00 UTC
Range-bound, pinned near 1.1610 · RSI 46 · price 1.16054
Compressed range into FOMC.
EUR/USD is flatlining around 1.1610, compressed in a 1.1588–1.1619 band as traders sit on hands ahead of the FOMC. The last NY hours rejected 1.1614 and price slipped back to 1.1605, RSI(14) neutral near 46; no setup in play.
Support: 1.1604, 1.1588, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16144, 1.1619
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1619 breaks the range top
Failure to hold 1.1588 opens the 1.1555 floor
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD flatlining near 1.1605, pinned in a tight band as traders sit out ahead of the Fed. The London push to 1.16193 stalled at the 200-day EMA region; price has since slipped back to the 1.16035 range floor with RSI hovering mid-range.
Support: 1.16035, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.1620 reopens the range top
Failure to hold 1.16035 exposes 1.15877
07:45 UTC
Sideways, compressed · RSI 45 · price 1.16067
Tight range below session high, holding mid-band.
EURUSD coiling around 1.1607 after stalling at the 1.1619 session high during the Asia-into-London window; the soft US data tilt and full-priced Fed hold have positioning compressed into a 1.1604-1.1619 band. RSI(14) near 44 reflects the lack of intraday direction.
Support: 1.1604, 1.1588
Resistance: 1.1619, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 (200-ema) breaks the range top
Loss of 1.1604 swing low exposes the 1.1588 session low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD is pinned in a 1.1588-1.1619 range, flatlining near 1.1607 with RSI(14) mid-zone as traders sit ahead of the FOMC. The session high at 1.16193 capped early; subsequent pops faded back to the 1.1610-1.1614 cluster, leaving price marginally below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.16035, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision later today (18:00 UTC) can break this range either way
Close above 1.16193 reopens the upside toward the 1.1620 ceiling
Break below 1.15877 confirms a lower low
07:30 UTC
Ranging, no clear direction · RSI 54 · price 1.16135
Compression near 1.1610 inside 24h range.
EURUSD is coiled around 1.1610, pinned just under the 1.1620 session high where the 200-day EMA has repeatedly capped rallies. London hours saw a dip to 1.1606 bought back to 1.1614; range remains intact with positioning compressed ahead of today's FOMC.
Support: 1.16055, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1625
What it said to watch
Break above 1.16193 exposes the 1.1625 200d ema cap
Loss of 1.16055 reopens the 1.1588 session low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC later today could break this range
07:30 UTC
Rangebound, flat · RSI 53 · price 1.16135
Compressed range below 1.1620.
EURUSD is pinned in a tight 1.1590–1.1620 range, flatlining near 1.1613 as the 200-day EMA overhead keeps capping rallies into the FOMC. Price dipped to 1.1603 and rebounded to 1.1614 in the last hour; RSI(14) neutral around 53 with ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1588, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1619, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 invalidates the range cap and exposes 1.1650
Failure to hold 1.1590 confirms a lower-low toward 1.1555
FOMC decision later today could materially shift this read; US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC a nearer risk
Compressed range 1.1588–1.1619, recent micro lower-high.
EUR/USD is pinned in a tight 1.1588–1.1619 band, flatlining near 1.1607 into the FOMC as the digest notes — the move up to 1.1619 stalled and price has since slipped back below EMA20/50. Last few bars rejected 1.16144 and drifted toward the session low at 1.16035, RSI(14) mid-40s with no momentum.
Support: 1.16035, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16144, 1.16193
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.16035 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.15877 london low
M15 close above 1.16193 breaks the session range top
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) can override this intraday read
07:16 UTC
Rangebound, flat · RSI 45 · price 1.16072
Compressed consolidation around 1.1610.
EURUSD is flatlining around 1.1610 ahead of the FOMC, with the upbeat ZEW prints giving only a fleeting bid that stalled at the 1.16193 session high. Price has since drifted to 1.1607, slipping below EMA20/50 inside a tight low-ATR range.
Support: 1.16055, 1.15945, 1.15875
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
FOMC decision later today is the dominant risk and could break this range either way
Close above 1.16193 reopens the upside toward the 1.1620 area
EUR/USD spent the Asian session boxed between 1.1605 and 1.1619, with rallies repeatedly capped near the 200-day EMA overhead at 1.1620. Price has slipped to session lows around 1.1605 into the London open, sitting just below EMA20/50 as traders sit idle ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.16035, 1.1600, 1.15555
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.16035 confirms a lower low
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the 1.1620 ceiling
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC later today could materially shift this read
EUR/USD pinned in a tight 1.1590–1.1620 range all session, stalling at the 1.16193 session high before slipping to 1.16035 in the last hour. Price now sits just above the 50% retrace of the prior leg up, RSI(14) cooling near 42 as positioning compresses ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.16035, 1.15875, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.16035 opens the 1.15875 swing low
Close above 1.1620 range top exposes the 1.1650 firm ceiling
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD remains trapped in a 1.1590-1.1620 grind, stalling repeatedly at the 1.1620 cap as flagged in the macro read. The last bar slipped to a fresh session low at 1.16054 with RSI(14) cooling near 40; no setup in play.
Support: 1.16054, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16200 invalidates the range read, opening 1.1650
Loss of 1.15877 confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1555 pivot
EZ HICP 09:00 UTC, US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:45 UTC
Ranging, edging lower · RSI 43 · price 1.16055
Range capped near 1.1620, floored ~1.1605.
EUR/USD spent the session grinding in a 1.1605-1.1620 band after stalling at the 200-day EMA cap near 1.1620; the last few bars rolled off the range top back to the 1.1605 floor. RSI(14) easing into the low 40s as price tests the lower edge of the range into Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.1605, 1.1590, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1615, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1605 opens 1.1590
Reclaim of 1.1620 needed to challenge 1.1650
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and Warsh FOMC 18:00 UTC could break this range
06:30 UTC
Ranging, no momentum · RSI 51 · price 1.16107
Tight range below session high.
EURUSD grinding sideways around 1.1611, holding the intraday low at 1.16079 after rejecting the 1.16193 session high earlier; the 1.1620 area (200-day EMA cap per macro read) remains the ceiling. ATR has compressed to ~7 pips and RSI is flat near 50 — no setup in play ahead of Wednesday's Warsh FOMC.
Support: 1.16079, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193/1.1620 cap opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.16079 exposes the 1.15877 swing low
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst for this range
EUR/USD ground higher off the 1.1577 session low through London but stalled hard at the 1.1620 cap (200-day EMA), and has since coiled in a 1.1608-1.1615 band with flat RSI near 51. No setup in play — price pinned just under resistance.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1590, 1.15775
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1606 exposes the 1.1590 range mid
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break the range
Warsh's first FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst
Consolidation in upper third of yesterday's range.
EURUSD grinding sideways in a tight 1.1606–1.1620 band through the Asian session, RSI(14) flat near 49. Supply capped the pair at 1.1619 overnight after the rally off 1.1590, and price has coiled just above the range floor since; the 200-day area near 1.1620 keeps blocking upside.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15945, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.1619, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 invalidates the capped-range read, opening 1.1650
Loss of 1.1606 exposes 1.15945 swing low
EZ final HICP at 09:00 UTC could break the grind; FOMC later this week is the dominant catalyst
06:15 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now flat · RSI 48 · price 1.16107
Tight consolidation just under session high.
EUR/USD rallied through London-NY yesterday to a session high at 1.16193 then stalled at the 1.1620 cap, drifting into a tight 1.1606-1.1615 grind for the last several hours. RSI(14) is flat near 47 with ATR compressing to ~6 pips — no setup in play, price coiled below resistance.
Support: 1.16061, 1.15875
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.16061 exposes the 1.15875 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could break the range
06:01 UTC
Ranging, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 1.16138
Tight consolidation below 1.1620 cap.
EUR/USD has gone sideways for the last ~12 hours, coiling in a 1.1606–1.1618 band with the 200-day EMA cap near 1.1620 unbroken since the early push to the session high. Tight ATR and a mid-range RSI confirm no directional setup as the market sits on its hands into the Warsh FOMC.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15875
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 200d ema cap invalidates the range read
Loss of the 1.1606 range floor opens 1.1590
Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now flat · RSI 54 · price 1.16138
Consolidation under session high.
London rallied off 1.1574 into a NY high at 1.1619, where price stalled hard at the 200-day EMA cap near 1.1620 and slipped back. Since then a tight Asian-session consolidation around 1.1608-1.1614, RSI neutral near 54 — no setup in play ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1577
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 invalidates the cap and opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1608 exposes the 1.1577 swing low
FOMC (18:00 UTC) and Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Ranging, capped near highs · RSI 49 · price 1.16113
Tight consolidation below 1.1620 cap.
EURUSD stalled at the 1.1620 cap (200-day EMA) early and has since gone flat, grinding in a 1.1608–1.1619 range through the Asian session with RSI(14) neutral near 49. No follow-through after the ZEW-driven probe higher; ATR has collapsed to ~4 pips as price coils near the session high.
Support: 1.1608, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 session high opens 1.1650
Loss of the 1.1608 range floor exposes the 1.15877 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision later today can break this range
05:46 UTC
Stalled, consolidating · RSI 49 · price 1.16113
Tight range under 1.1620 cap.
EUR/USD rallied off 1.1575 to 1.1618 during the prior session but stalled at the 1.1620 cap and rolled into a tight overnight range between 1.1608 and 1.1618. RSI(14) flat near 49 with ATR compressed to ~4 pips through thin Asian-session trade; no setup in play.
Support: 1.1608, 1.15945
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 cap opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1608 range low exposes 1.1594 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC later today can break this range
05:31 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.16122
Tight consolidation under session high.
EUR/USD rallied from 1.1577 through the Asia session and stalled at 1.1618 near the noted 200-day EMA cap, then went sideways. Price now grinds a tight 1.1606–1.1618 band into London with RSI neutral; the Warsh-led FOMC later today is the dominant catalyst.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1591
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC can break this range
Close above 1.1618 opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1606 exposes the 1.1591 swing low
05:30 UTC
Ranging, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 1.16122
Consolidation under session high.
EUR/USD ground higher off 1.1575 through London then stalled at 1.16184, the 200-day EMA cap flagged in the macro read; price now coils 1.1609-1.1618 with RSI(14) flat near 50. Tight ATR (~14 pips) and a shrinking range into Warsh's FOMC — no setup in play.
Support: 1.1609, 1.15904, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 200d ema cap opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1590 swing low reopens the window low at 1.15745
FOMC + dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this range
EURUSD climbed off the 1.15745 session low through London into the 1.16193 session high, then stalled and has been grinding sideways near 1.1612 through the Asian hours. RSI sits neutral around 51 with the swing low at 1.1608 holding so far; no setup in play between 1.1608 and 1.1620.
Support: 1.1608, 1.15924, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the upside toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1608 swing low exposes the 1.1592 prior low
Eurozone final HICP at 09:00 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC could break this range
05:15 UTC
Ranging, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.16117
Tight consolidation below session high.
EUR/USD coiled in a tight 1.1607-1.1619 band through the Asia session, holding gains from the post-ZEW push but stalling at the 200-day EMA cap near 1.1620. RSI(14) is mid-range and ATR has compressed to ~13 pips — a holding pattern ahead of Warsh's first FOMC.
Support: 1.1607, 1.1599, 1.15875
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 (200-ema cap) opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1607 range floor exposes 1.1599 then 1.1588
FOMC and Retail Sales later today can break this range
EUR/USD ran from the 1.1575 Asian low to a session high at 1.1619 on the ZEW beat, then stalled at the cap and coiled into a tight 1.1608–1.1615 range through late Asia. RSI(14) near 48 with flat momentum; the range floor at 1.1608 is holding, swing low sits below at 1.1591.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1591
Resistance: 1.1619, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1619 session high / 1.1620 cap opens room toward 1.1650
Loss of the 1.1608 range floor exposes the 1.1591 swing low
EZ final HICP 09:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break the coil ahead of Wed FOMC
05:01 UTC
Sideways after NY push higher · RSI 48 · price 1.16109
Tight range capped below 1.1620.
EUR/USD drifted into a tight Asian-session range between the 1.16061 session low and the 1.1620 cap after NY pushed up to the 1.16193 session high. RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR compressed; price is grinding just below the cap into Eurozone HICP and the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.16061, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1620 cap opens 1.1650
Loss of the 1.16061 session low exposes the 1.15745 swing low
Eurozone HICP 09:00 UTC and FOMC later could break this range
EUR/USD spiked to a session high of 1.16193 in the prior NY session, stalling at the 200d EMA cap near 1.1620, then settled into a tight 1.1608–1.1620 grind through the Asian session. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR is compressed (~4 pips) — no momentum either way ahead of Eurozone HICP and the FOMC.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1591, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 opens the path to 1.1650
Loss of 1.1608 exposes the 1.1591 swing low
Eurozone final HICP at 09:00 UTC could break the range
Warsh's first FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst
04:46 UTC
Ranging, flat momentum · RSI 49 · price 1.16114
Tight consolidation below session high.
EURUSD is grinding in a tight 1.1606–1.1619 range through the Asian session after stalling at the 200-day EMA cap near 1.1620, with RSI flat around 49. No follow-through either way ahead of EZ HICP and Warsh's first FOMC.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15945
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1606 exposes the 1.1594 area
EZ final HICP today 09:00 UTC, FOMC later could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 53 · price 1.1613
Consolidation near session high.
EUR ground higher through London-NY hours to a 1.1619 session high after the strong ZEW prints, then stalled and has spent the Asian session coiling in a tight 1.1608-1.1619 band. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is compressed at ~3 pips, typical of pre-FOMC drift.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1590, 1.1577
Resistance: 1.1619, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1619 opens the path toward the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1608 exposes 1.1590 and the 1.1577 range low
FOMC decision later today is the dominant catalyst and can void this range read
04:30 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging · RSI 51 · price 1.1613
Consolidation under session high after London/NY rally.
EUR rallied through London/NY to a 1.16193 session high before stalling; Asian hours have been quiet, drifting in a 1.1608-1.1619 band around the 1.1600 pivot. RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR compressed to ~4 pips reflect the pre-Fed lull.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1600, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the upside; failure to hold 1.1608 exposes 1.1600
FOMC decision Wed (18:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) are the dominant catalysts and can void this range read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now ranging · RSI 45 · price 1.16101
Tight consolidation under session high.
EUR rallied off the 1.15745 session low to a session high at 1.16193 before stalling; price now consolidates in a tight 1.1609–1.1619 band with RSI cooling to the mid-40s and sitting just under both EMAs. The ZEW beat earlier failed to extend the move as USD held firm into the Fed.
Support: 1.1609, 1.1588, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1609 opens the path back to 1.1588
Close above 1.16193 resumes the prior intraday advance
FOMC decision and Retail Sales later today could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 46 · price 1.16101
Consolidation below session high.
EURUSD rallied through the prior US session to a 1.16193 session high, then went quiet in thin Asian-session trade and is now consolidating between ~1.1608 and the high. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46 and ATR has compressed, with the pair pinned below 1.1620 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1615
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the upside push
Loss of 1.16080 swing low exposes the 1.16000 round number
FOMC decision Wed (18:00 UTC) is the dominant catalyst and can break this range
04:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now flat · RSI 46 · price 1.16103
Consolidating below session high.
EUR climbed from 1.1574 to a session high at 1.16184, then stalled into a tight 1.1606-1.1616 band as the dollar firmed ahead of the Fed. Price holding just above the 1.1600 round number, RSI flat near 46; volatility compressed with ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.1616, 1.16184
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16184 reopens the upside test
Loss of 1.1606 exposes the 1.1600 round number
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC dominate the next moves
Eurozone Core HICP 09:00 UTC could disturb the range
04:00 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now ranging · RSI 49 · price 1.16103
Consolidation under session high after rally.
EUR rallied from 1.1574 through the NY session to a 1.1619 session high, then stalled and has chopped in a tight 1.1607-1.1619 band through Asia, RSI(14) flat near 49. The 1.1600 round number sits just below as a pivot; the digest flags the euro capped under 1.1620 into the Fed.
Support: 1.16065, 1.1600, 1.15924
Resistance: 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the upside toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.16065 range low exposes 1.1600 then 1.15924
FOMC decision later today is the dominant catalyst and could break this range either way
03:46 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 50 · price 1.16105
Tight consolidation under session high.
Quiet Asia session: EURUSD coiling in a tight 1.1608–1.1618 band after the London-NY push stalled at the 1.16184 session high. RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR compressed to ~3 pips, classic pre-Fed drift with price pinned below the 1.1600/1.1650 cap noted in the macro read.
Support: 1.16082, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16184 opens the 1.1620 round number
Break below 1.16082 exposes the 1.1600 pivot
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC dominate the next session
03:45 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now flat · RSI 49 · price 1.16105
Consolidation below session high.
EUR ground higher through London to a 1.16193 session high, then stalled into a tight 1.1606–1.1619 consolidation with RSI(14) flat near 49. Price holds just above the 1.1600 round number; pre-Fed positioning is keeping the pair pinned with the dollar firm.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.1606 swing low exposes the 1.1600 round number
FOMC decision Wed is the dominant catalyst and will override this range read
03:31 UTC
Range, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 1.16104
Consolidation in upper range below NY high.
Asia session is quiet and rangebound, coiling 1.1608–1.1618 after the NY rally rejected at 1.1618. RSI(14) sits neutral near 52 and price is hugging EMA20/50 — no intraday setup in play ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1600, 1.1575
Resistance: 1.1618, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1618 reopens the path toward the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.1600 pivot exposes the 1.1575 swing low
Eurozone Core HICP 09:00 UTC and the FOMC decision later today are the dominant catalysts
03:30 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.16104
Consolidation under session high.
EUR/USD is grinding sideways near 1.1610 in thin Asian-session trade after London/NY pushed to a session high at 1.16193. RSI(14) sits mid-range with ATR compressing to ~5 pips; the 1.1600 pivot and session low at 1.15745 frame the wider range while price coils under 1.16193.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 1.16193 reopens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of the 1.16000 pivot exposes the 1.15745 session low
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) and Eurozone Core HICP (09:00 UTC) are the dominant catalysts and could override this range
NY session drove EUR/USD up to 1.16193 before it stalled, with price now drifting in a tight Asian-session range between 1.16080 and 1.16150. EUR remains pinned below the 1.1600/1.1650 zone flagged in context; the last bar ticked to the range low at 1.16096 with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.1608, 1.1600, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1615
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.16080 opens 1.16000 psych then 1.15877 swing low
Reclaim of 1.16193 session high needed to resume the up-leg
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) are the dominant catalysts and could override this range read
EUR rallied from 1.1575 through the prior NY session to a high of 1.1619, then went sideways in a tight 1.1608–1.1616 band through Asia hours. RSI(14) has cooled back to neutral and the last bar dipped to 1.1609, with the 1.1600 pivot holding so far; the pair is pinned below 1.1620 as the market awaits the Fed.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600, 1.15877
Resistance: 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the upside toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1600 pivot exposes 1.1588 session low
FOMC decision later today is the dominant catalyst and can override this range read
03:01 UTC
Ranging, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.16113
Tight Asian range below session high.
Tight Asian-session range between 1.16082 and the 1.16193 session high, RSI flat near 50 on thin volume. No setup in play — price coiling sub-EMA20 ahead of the Fed decision later today.
Support: 1.16082, 1.16035, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.16184
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.16082 opens the 1.1600 psych level
Reclaim of 1.16193 session high resumes the intraday up-leg
FOMC decision later today is the dominant near-term driver
03:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 1.16113
Consolidation below session high.
EURUSD is consolidating between the 1.1606 range floor and the session high at 1.1619 through quiet Asia hours, RSI(14) flat near 50. Price recovered above the 1.1600 pivot on the London-NY rally to 1.1619 and is holding it; volumes have thinned into the early session.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600, 1.1594
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 opens the path toward the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of the 1.1606 range floor reopens 1.1600 and 1.1594
FOMC decision later today is the dominant catalyst and could reset this range
02:46 UTC
Consolidating near session highs · RSI 53 · price 1.16126
Balancing just below NY session high after a leg up.
EUR/USD is grinding sideways through the Asia session between 1.1609 and the 1.16193 NY session high, holding the gains from yesterday's NY-hours push despite EUR being pinned below 1.1600 earlier on the ignored ZEW beat. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53 and ATR is compressed at ~3.6 pips — a coiled pre-Fed range.
Support: 1.1609, 1.1600, 1.1592
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Close above 1.16193 opens the path toward the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1600 pivot exposes the 1.1592 swing low
FOMC decision + dots 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and will likely break this range
02:45 UTC
Uptrend stalling near highs · RSI 54 · price 1.16126
Consolidation below 1.1619 day high.
EUR ran from the 1.15752 session low to 1.16193 through the prior session, then stalled; Asia hours have it pinned in a tight 1.1606–1.1615 band just under the day high. RSI(14) neutral near 53 with no extreme; price holds above EMA20/50 but momentum has flattened ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15945, 1.15752
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.16060 exposes 1.15945 swing low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst
02:31 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now flat · RSI 49 · price 1.16115
Consolidation below session high.
EUR rallied through NY hours to a session high of 1.16193 before rejection, and has since coiled in a tight 1.1606–1.1615 band through the thin Asia session. Volume has dried up into the FOMC standoff; no setup in play, price pinned just under 1.1600-area extension with momentum neutral (RSI ~49).
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600, 1.1594
Resistance: 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the upside extension
Loss of 1.16060 exposes the 1.1594 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC are the decisive catalysts and can break this range
Tight range below session high after rally off 1.1575.
EUR rallied off the 1.1575 session low through NY and now coils in a tight 1.1606–1.1619 range, RSI flat near 53. Price holds just above EMA20/50 but the 1.16193 session high is capping; momentum has drained into the Asia session ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.16063, 1.15974, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.16063 exposes 1.1597 and turns the structure lower
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) are the dominant catalysts that can break this range
Asia session has price coiling around 1.1612 after London/NY drove the climb off 1.1575 to a session high at 1.16184. Euro is capped below 1.1620 and pinning into the Fed decision, RSI(14) mid-range near 55.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15962
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16184 opens the path to 1.1620
Failure to hold 1.1606 reopens 1.15962
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this read
02:15 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.16123
Consolidation below session high.
EUR/USD is consolidating in a tight 1.1608–1.1619 band through the Asia session after the London-NY push tagged 1.16193, with RSI(14) hovering near neutral. Price sits just under the 1.1600 pivot recovery, capped below 1.1620 as the market waits on the Fed; ZEW beats earlier failed to sustain euro above 1.1600.
Support: 1.16082, 1.1600, 1.15924
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.16082 exposes the 1.1600 psych level then 1.15924 swing low
FOMC decision later today is the dominant catalyst and can override this range read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 55 · price 1.16134
Consolidation just below session high.
EUR ground through 1.1600 during the prior NY session and printed a session high at 1.16193 before stalling into a tight Asia-session range around 1.1613. Volatility has collapsed (ATR ~4 pips) with RSI flat near 55; price holding above the 1.16060 swing low.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15875
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the path toward the 1.1620 psych level
Loss of 1.16060 swing low shifts the read back toward 1.15875 prior low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the dominant near-term catalysts
NY session drove EUR/USD up to a session high of 1.16184 before settling into a tight 1.1608–1.1615 band through the Asia hours, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s. Price holds above EMA20/50 but momentum has flattened as the market awaits the Fed; the 1.1600 pivot has acted as a floor on the pullback.
Support: 1.16082, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16184 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.16000 pivot exposes the 1.1585 region
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Mild uptrend, flat in Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.16112
Consolidation near day high after London-NY push.
London-NY drove EUR up from the 1.15745 day low to a 1.16193 day high on the ZEW beat, then Asia stalled into a tight 1.1608-1.1616 range. Price holds just below the 1.1620 cap flagged by UOB; RSI(14) neutral around 55 with no extension.
Support: 1.1608, 1.15945, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16161, 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 day high opens the path to the 1.1650 cap
Loss of the 1.1608 asia floor exposes 1.15945
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Range, mild upward drift · RSI 53 · price 1.16112
Consolidating near session highs.
NY session pushed EUR to a 1.16193 high before the Asia session settled into a tight 1.1606-1.1616 range, with the asia floor at 1.16062 holding repeatedly. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR has thinned to ~5 pips on low Asian volume — no setup in play.
Support: 1.16062, 1.15924
Resistance: 1.16161, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 ny high reopens the upside toward 1.1620
Loss of 1.16062 asia floor exposes 1.15924 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling in Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.16133
Consolidating just below session high after rally.
EUR rallied from 1.15752 through the 1.1610s into a 1.16193 session high before drifting into a tight 1.1606-1.1616 range during thin Asian hours. Price holds above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s; higher-low structure off 1.1591 intact.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1591, 1.15752
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1606 breaks the higher-low chain
Reclaim and close above 1.16193 reopens the path to 1.1650
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC (18:00 UTC) are the dominant catalysts ahead
EUR ground up through the London-NY hours off the 1.1575 session low to tag 1.1619, lifted on the blowout German/Eurozone ZEW and US-Iran de-escalation. Price is now coiling tight in 1.1608-1.1616 during early Asia, RSI(14) cooling from the highs as the move stalls below the session top.
Support: 1.1608, 1.15962, 1.15752
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 1.16193 opens the path to the 1.1650 cap
Loss of 1.16080 breaks the higher-low chain toward 1.15962
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC then FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now consolidating near highs · RSI 56 · price 1.16134
HH/HL chain into 1.1619, sideways since.
EURUSD ground higher through the NY session to a high of 1.1619 before stalling, helped by the soft US data and US-Iran de-escalation tone. Through Asia hours price has consolidated tightly between 1.1606 and 1.1619, RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15945, 1.15749
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1619 opens the path toward the 1.1650 cap
Loss of 1.1606 breaks the consolidation and exposes 1.1594
Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and Wednesday FOMC could materially shift this read
Higher highs into consolidation near session high.
NY session drove EURUSD up from the 1.1575 London lows to a 1.16193 session high, lifted by the blowout German/Eurozone ZEW prints. Asian hours have stalled into a tight 1.1606–1.1619 consolidation on thin volume, RSI mid-range with the session high still capping.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15924
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 extends the up-leg toward the 1.1650 cap
Loss of 1.16060 signals a deeper pullback toward 1.15924
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and Wednesday FOMC could materially shift this read
Consolidating below session high after intraday push.
EUR ground higher through London-NY to a 1.16193 day high before stalling; price now coils in a tight 1.1606-1.1616 band through quiet Asian hours, RSI(14) flat near mid-50s. Move stems from the ZEW beat and a softer pre-FOMC dollar, but upside is capped into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Close above 1.16193 opens path to the 1.1650 cap
Loss of 1.1600 invalidates the consolidation read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC could materially reshape this read
London-NY drove EUR from the 1.1575 base to a 1.16184 session high, then price stalled and is grinding sideways between 1.1606 and 1.1618 through thin Asia hours. RSI(14) neutral near 56; no directional setup with the pair pinned ahead of US Retail Sales and the FOMC.
Support: 1.16062, 1.15994
Resistance: 1.16184, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16184 reopens the 1.1620 resistance cap
Loss of 1.16062 breaks the rising-low chain
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EURUSD ground higher through the London-NY rally to a session high at 1.16193, then settled into a tight 1.1606-1.1614 consolidation through Asian hours. RSI(14) near 58 and ATR cooling to ~8 pips show momentum easing while price holds near the highs.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1600, 1.15945
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Close above 1.16193 opens the path toward the 1.1650 range cap
Loss of 1.1606 exposes 1.1600 and the 1.1594 swing low
FOMC decision later today (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia session has EUR consolidating in a 1.1606-1.1619 band after recovering through NY hours, with price ticking back toward the 1.16193 prior high. RSI(14) flat near 57; the broader range still sits inside the 1.1555-1.1650 frame ahead of Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15924, 1.15752
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 opens the 1.1620 area
Loss of 1.1606 breaks the recent consolidation lower
FOMC and Retail Sales today could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling near highs · RSI 56 · price 1.16136
Consolidation just below session high.
NY session drove EUR/USD up to a 1.16193 high before it eased into a tight Asian-session consolidation around 1.1610-1.1614, holding above the 1.16062 swing low. Move is range-bound into Wednesday's FOMC, with the soft pre-Fed liquidity keeping ranges compressed.
Support: 1.16062, 1.1591, 1.15752
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the path toward 1.1620
Loss of 1.16062 swing low signals a deeper pullback toward 1.1591
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:30 UTC
Uptrend stalling into consolidation · RSI 56 · price 1.16136
Tight range under session high.
EUR pushed to the session high at 1.16193 during NY hours, then drifted into a tight 1.1606-1.1614 range through the low-volume Asia session, RSI(14) cooling to neutral. Price holds above EMA20/50 but momentum has flattened; pair is consolidating just below the session high.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 reopens the path toward 1.1620 round number
Loss of 1.16060 range low breaks the rising structure
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC could shift this read
00:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now consolidating · RSI 46 · price 1.16092
Tight range near session highs after rally.
London-NY rally peaked at the 1.16184 session high before rejection, and Asia has gone quiet on thin volume, chopping in a 1.1606-1.1614 range. Price sits mid-range at 1.16092, hugging EMA20; EUR remains pinned ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1597
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16184
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1614 reopens the 1.16184 session high
Loss of the 1.1606 range floor exposes the 1.1597 swing low
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst and could override this range read
EUR rallied through NY to a 1.16193 day high before stalling, now drifting in a tight 1.1606–1.1614 band through the thin Asia session. RSI(14) flat near 52 after the cool-off; the 1.1620 cap flagged into the Fed is holding.
Support: 1.1606, 1.1587
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 opens path to 1.1650
Loss of 1.16060 exposes 1.1587 swing low
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst for this pair
00:01 UTC
Mild uptrend, now flat · RSI 57 · price 1.16131
Consolidating below session high.
NY session pushed EUR/USD to a session high of 1.16193 before it settled into a tight 1.16060–1.16140 consolidation through Asia hours, RSI(14) neutral near 57. Price holds above 1.1600 but capped under the 1.1620 ceiling that has stalled recent rallies, with the market parked ahead of Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 1.1606, 1.15945, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.16193
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.16193 opens the path back toward the 1.1620 cap
Loss of 1.16060 range floor turns intraday structure lower toward 1.15945
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant driver and could reset this read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 56 · price 1.16131
Consolidation under session high.
London-NY pushed EUR/USD to a session high of 1.16193 after the ZEW beats, but the rally was rejected at the well-flagged 1.1620 cap. Asia session is dead-quiet and coiled between 1.1606 and 1.1614; no setup in play ahead of Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 1.16061, 1.15974, 1.15924
Resistance: 1.16193, 1.1620
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1620 clears the cap that has held recent rallies
Loss of 1.16061 swing low opens the 1.1597 pivot
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC dominate the next session