EUR/USD held a 1.1575–1.1620 range for three sessions before a sharp downside break into the NY session, slicing through 1.1550 to a 1.1477 low on the hawkish-hold FOMC fallout. Price has stabilised right on the 1.1500 April low with RSI(14) pressed into oversold territory, and both EMAs now sit well overhead. The break ends the multi-session range read decisively.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1477
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1500 confirms continuation toward the broader 1.12 area discussed by macro
Reclaim of 1.1590 broken support would neutralise the downside break
US jobless claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind the FOMC move
EUR/USD held a 1.1580–1.1620 range all week before collapsing through 1.1500 during NY hours as Warsh's hawkish hold and lifted dots bid the dollar. The move sliced both EMAs in two bars, printed a low at 1.14775 and recovered only modestly to 1.1502. RSI(14) is pinned near oversold after the impulse, with the April low at 1.1500 now the immediate pivot.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim 1.1500 confirms the range break and keeps the lower-low intact
H1 close back above 1.1590 would neutralise the breakdown
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and US jobless claims could extend the post-FOMC move
EURUSD held a 1.1590–1.1620 band for most of the week before collapsing through it on the hawkish FOMC/Warsh dot-plot revision, slicing to a 1.14775 low in the NY session before stabilising near 1.1502. The move broke clean below the prior range floor at 1.1590 and printed a sharp lower low, with RSI(14) now deeply oversold. Price sits just above the 1.1500 psych level after the spike.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15387, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1500 opens the path toward the April low extension
Reclaim above 1.15387 would negate the breakdown
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the post-FOMC USD move
22:01 UTC
Sharp downtrend, range break · RSI 27 · price 1.15024
Range broken lower, testing April low.
Price spent three sessions boxed between 1.1590 and the 200-day cap near 1.1690, then collapsed through the floor into the NY session after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision and hot US retail sales. The move sliced ~640 pips in two bars, breaking the 1.1590 base and parking just above the pivotal 1.1500 April low with RSI(14) deeply oversold.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1592, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1500 April low confirms the breakdown toward 1.14775 swing low
Reclaim above 1.1590 prior low would repair the range break
US-Iran headlines and Fed follow-through coverage could extend the post-FOMC slide
EUR/USD spent the week pinned in a 1.1500–1.1690 range before a violent breakdown into the NY session, dumping through the 1.1500 range floor to a session low at 1.14775 after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision drove a broad USD bid. Price now trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) deep in oversold territory, and the broken floor at 1.1500 flips to first resistance. The prior low near 1.1557 sits as the next overhead reference.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1557
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.1500 range floor would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.14775 session low opens the path toward the 1.1450 round number
US jobless claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-FOMC USD move
21:01 UTC
Range break to downside, fresh momentum · RSI 22 · price 1.14964
Range floor broken, lower low printed.
EUR/USD spent the week pinned in a 1.1557–1.1620 range with the range top capping repeated NY attempts, before a sharp breakdown through the 1.1500 floor in late NY hours as the hawkish FOMC dot-plot revision fuelled a USD bid. The move sliced ~250 pips in two bars to a session low at 1.14775, dragging RSI into oversold and price well below both EMAs. The 1.1500 prior floor now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15387, 1.1615
What it said to watch
An H1 recovery back above 1.15000 would negate the breakdown read
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend the USD bid
Failure to hold 1.14775 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
EUR/USD spent three days pinned around 1.1600 inside a 1.1590-1.1620 ceiling before a hawkish FOMC hold (dots ripped higher, Retail Sales beat) sparked a sharp USD bid into NY hours, dumping price 55-plus pips through the range floor to a 1.15354 session low. The breakdown leaves price well below the EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time this week, with RSI(14) stretched into oversold. The 1.15890 shelf that capped the prior consolidation is now the broken-support pivot overhead.
Support: 1.15354, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1619
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.15890 broken support would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.15354 opens the path toward the 1.1500 April low
US jobless claims and Philly Fed (Thu 12:30 UTC) could extend or unwind the FOMC move
EUR/USD spent three sessions pinned in a 1.1500–1.1620 range before the FOMC hawkish hold sparked a sharp USD bid into the NY session, slicing through the 1.1600 floor on the heaviest volume of the week. RSI(14) is now deep in oversold territory and price sits well below EMA20/EMA50, marking a clean break of the prior consolidation. The 1.15354 session low is the immediate floor, with 1.1500 the next structural level below.
Support: 1.15354, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1590 prior support would negate the range break
Failure to hold 1.15354 opens the path to the 1.1500 april low
Thu jobless claims + Philly Fed could re-shape the post-FOMC USD move
19:01 UTC
Range broken lower, momentum down · RSI 35 · price 1.15563
Downside break of this-week's range after FOMC.
EUR/USD spent three sessions pinned in a 1.1585–1.1620 range, repeatedly capped near the week high at 1.16213 below the 200-DMA. The hawkish Fed hold and a strong US retail sales beat sparked a USD bid that snapped the range floor on the final NY-hour bar, driving price to 1.15457 before a close at 1.15563. The drop pushed RSI(14) to the mid-30s and put price firmly below EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time this week.
Support: 1.15457, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
Close below 1.15457 session low confirms a lower low toward the 1.1500 april low
Reclaim of 1.1600 (ema20) negates the downside break and restores the range read
Warsh presser tone and Thu jobless claims could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend emerging, breakdown from range · RSI 31 · price 1.15563
Range break lower below 1.1600.
EUR/USD consolidated above 1.1600 for two-plus days, repeatedly capped near the 1.1620 week high, before breaking down sharply on the hawkish Fed hold and the strong US retail sales beat — the last bar sliced to 1.1546 and closed at 1.1556. Price has snapped below both EMA20 and EMA50, which had been supporting pullbacks all week. RSI(14) has flushed into oversold on the impulse.
Support: 1.15457, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1600 negates the breakdown and restores the range
Sustained trade below 1.15457 swing low opens the path toward the 1.1500 april low
Warsh presser tone and Thu jobless claims could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Range, drifting off the highs · RSI 43 · price 1.15908
Consolidation below week high, pullback into FOMC.
EURUSD has held a tight 1.1575–1.1620 range since midweek, with the week high at 1.1620 capping two attempts before price drifted back toward 1.1590 into the FOMC decision. A blowout US retail sales beat (0.9% vs 0.5%) firmed the dollar, dragging EUR below its H1 EMA20 as RSI(14) cycled down into the low 40s. The 200-day MA cluster at 1.1675/1.1690 remains the unbroken cap on the week's structure.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1541
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser within hours can materially reset this read
Close above 1.1620 reopens the path to the 200-dma at 1.1675
Failure to hold 1.1575 swing low confirms a lower low toward weekly open 1.1550
EUR opened the week near 1.1551 and ran to a 1.1621 high by Tuesday's NY session, but two failed attempts at that level have left a double top capping the move. Price has since rolled back below EMA20 and EMA50, consolidating into the 1.1590 area ahead of the FOMC decision; in-line Eurozone HICP and a US retail sales beat have kept the range intact rather than resolving it. RSI(14) sits mid-40s, reflecting the loss of upside momentum without a directional break.
Support: 1.15807, 1.15511
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision now plus Warsh presser in the next bar window could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.16213 opens the path toward the 200-dma at 1.1675
Failure to hold the 1.15807 swing low exposes the weekly open at 1.1551
Consolidation below week high, slipping toward range floor.
EURUSD held above 1.16 for a third session after Monday's weekend gap higher, but two pushes to the 1.1620 week high stalled, leaving a double-top cap into the NY session. Price has since rolled back under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41, now probing the 1.1580 swing low as the market sits on its hands ahead of FOMC. The 200-DMA cluster at 1.1675/90 remains the unfilled upside gate flagged this week.
Support: 1.1580, 1.1567, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser 18:30 UTC is the dominant near-term driver for this read
H1 close below 1.1580 confirms a lower low and opens 1.1550
Close back above 1.1620 reopens the 1.1675 200-dma
17:01 UTC
Range, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 1.15923
Consolidation below week high, slipping under EMAs.
EUR/USD has boxed between 1.1580 and the 1.1620 week high since Wednesday's open, with the digest noting bulls stalling well ahead of the 200-DMA at 1.1675/90. Price slipped under both H1 EMAs into the NY session and RSI(14) has cooled into the low 40s as the move drifts back toward the range floor. In-line final HICP drew little reaction with traders parked ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1580, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1606, 1.1621, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh press conference is the dominant near-term driver
Hourly close below 1.1580 range floor opens the path toward 1.1550
Reclaim of the 1.1606 EMA20 and a push at the 1.1620 week high needed to revive the upside
16:01 UTC
Range, momentum rolling over · RSI 43 · price 1.15892
Consolidation under 1.1620, drifting off highs.
EUR/USD has consolidated around 1.1600 for a third day, repeatedly capped at the week high near 1.16213 and the broader 200-DMA at 1.1675. Price slipped back below EMA20 through the NY session, with RSME(14) rolling over toward 42 as the rebound off 1.15745 lost traction. The Core HICP beat kept the hawkish-ECB story intact, but buyers stalled hard at the highs into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 1.15745, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser tonight could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.15745 swing low opens the path toward the 1.1550 april pivot
Reclaim of the 1.16213 week high reopens a test of the 200-dma at 1.1675
16:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 43 · price 1.15892
Lower highs under 1.1620, slipping below EMAs.
EUR/USD held above 1.1600 for a third day on the hawkish-ECB tailwind but stalled hard at the 200-DMA zone, with twin highs near 1.1620 capping the rebound. Price has since rolled back under the H1 EMA20/50 and is drifting toward 1.1575 into the NY session, RSI(14) easing into the low 40s. The slide reflects positioning ahead of the FOMC, with the rejection at 1.1675/1.1690 noted in the macro read still respected.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1603, 1.1621
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close back above 1.1620 reopens the 200-DMA at 1.1675/1.1690
Failure to hold 1.1575 confirms a lower-low toward 1.1550
EUR/USD carved a double top near 1.1620 this week, with both attempts rejected ahead of the 200-DMA cap at 1.1675/90 as traders sat on hands pre-FOMC. Price has since slipped to 1.1597, dipping below the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-40s; strong US Retail Sales (0.9%) gave the dollar little fresh lift. The pair is holding a 1.1575–1.1620 range for a third day above 1.1600 support.
Support: 1.15745, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus Warsh presser ~3h out could break the 1.1575–1.1620 range
H1 close back above 1.1620 negates the double top
Loss of 1.1575 swing low exposes the 1.1550 floor
15:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 44 · price 1.15971
Range below week high, lower highs forming.
EUR/USD has ranged 1.1585–1.1620 for a second day after rallying off Monday's 1.1503 low, with the 1.16213 week high capping repeated attempts. Price slipped back under the 1.1600 round-number and EMA(20) this session as RSI(14) eased into the mid-40s. With in-line HICP already absorbed, the FOMC decision in ~3h is the dominant near-term driver.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1575, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1600 reopens the 1.16213 week high
Loss of 1.1585 swing low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1550 floor
FOMC decision in ~3h could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 47 · price 1.16009
Range between 1.1574 and 1.1621.
EURUSD gapped higher into the new week to around 1.1605 and has ranged since, repeatedly capped at the 1.1621 week high with the 1.1675 200-DMA the larger resistance flagged into the Fed. Price is hovering around the 1.1600 psych level, holding above the 1.1585 swing low and 1.1574 week low. RSI(14) sits neutral near 47 with price drifting just below EMA(20).
Support: 1.15845, 1.15745
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.1621 week high opens the path to the 1.1675 200-DMA
Loss of the 1.1574 week low confirms a downside break of the range
EUR/USD has coiled in a 1.1575–1.1621 band for a third day, holding above EMA50 but flattening at EMA20 as price stalls beneath the 200-DMA. The US-Iran deal kept the dollar soft and a 2.6% core HICP beat underpinned the euro, yet RSI(14) has cycled around 50 with no follow-through after the 1.1621 week high. The 1.1620 ceiling capped two attempts and price is rolling back toward the middle of the range.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1550
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1621 opens the path to the 200-DMA at 1.1675
Loss of 1.1575 confirms a lower-low and breaks the range floor
13:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 42 · price 1.15911
Range below 1.1620 after midweek impulse.
EUR/USD ran from Monday's 1.1503 low to a 1.1621 week high midweek, helped by the upside ZEW surprises and hawkish ECB tone, but gains stalled hard at the 200-day EMA capping just above 1.1620. Since then price has consolidated and is now drifting back toward 1.1590, slipping under EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling to the low 40s as traders sit on hands into FOMC.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales could materially shift this read
Clean H1 close above 1.1620 (200d ema cap) opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1585 swing low exposes the 1.1555 downside pivot
13:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 43 · price 1.15911
Higher-lows intact, capped at week high.
EUR/USD pushed higher through midweek on the ECB hawkish story and a softer USD, but three attempts at 1.1620 — the 200-day EMA cap — stalled the advance. Price has since rolled back below the H1 EMA20 toward 1.1585, with RSI(14) easing into the low 40s. The 1.1620 ceiling and rising higher-lows from Monday's session frame the week's range into the FOMC decision.
Support: 1.15847, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser today could materially shift this read
H1 close below 1.15847 breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing 1.1555
A clean break above 1.16213 opens the 1.1620/1.1650 zone
EUR/USD has climbed since Monday's open, helped by the strong ZEW beat and hawkish ECB commentary, peaking near 1.1621 where the 200-day EMA capped two attempts this week — a near-equal double top. Price has since slipped back below the 1.1600 round number with RSI(14) rolling over toward 37 and now trading under both H1 EMAs into FOMC. The 1.1584 swing low is the first floor of this week's higher-low structure.
Support: 1.15842, 1.15555
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.16213, 1.1620
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1600 reopens the 1.1620 200d ema cap
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 1.1584 swing low exposes the 1.1555 week pivot
12:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling below cap · RSI 43 · price 1.15968
Consolidation under 1.1620 after week's rally.
EUR/USD rallied off Monday's 1.1507 low through the week and stalled hard at 1.1620, where the 200-day EMA has capped two attempts. Price has since slipped back below EMA20/EMA50 toward 1.1597 with RSI cooling into the low 40s, consolidating in pre-FOMC limbo after firm ZEW and core HICP prints kept the EUR bid. The 1.1600 round level is now acting as a hinge between the cap above and the 1.1585 base.
Support: 1.1585, 1.1555, 1.1538
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1620
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of the 1.1555 pivot exposes sub-1.1540
11:01 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.16026
Range above 1.1600, capped at 1.1620.
EUR/USD has gone sideways above 1.1600 for a third session after the weekend gap higher, with the 1.1620 range top rejecting multiple attempts this week and price now drifting back to test EMA20. RSI(14) is flat near 50 with no momentum extension, and the pair sits pinned just below its 200-day EMA noted in macro context. Buyers held the 1.1594 area on the latest dip, keeping the range intact ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.1594, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1594 then 1.1575 confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1555 floor
11:00 UTC
Range, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 1.16026
Rangebound below 200-day EMA, grinding near 1.1600.
EURUSD has spent the back half of the week pinned in a 1.1555-1.1650 range, repeatedly capped near 1.1620 below the 200-day EMA as a softer USD on US-Iran peace optimism met weaker Eurozone growth. Price slipped under EMA(20) into the NY session today, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s after the 1.1620 rejection. Buyers held the 1.1575 area on the Wednesday dip, keeping the range intact.
Support: 1.1595, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 invalidates the range cap and opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 exposes the sub-1.150 downside flagged in context
10:01 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 1.16007
Range below 1.1620 cap, grinding near 1.1600.
EURUSD has been pinned in a tight range below the 1.1620 week high since the weekend, grinding either side of the 1.1600 handle with EUR firm on a softer USD after US-Iran peace optimism. The 1.1620 cap has rejected two attempts this week while the recent pullback has dipped price just under the H1 EMA20/EMA50 cluster, with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. Price sits in pre-FOMC limbo as the dominant weekly impulse off 1.1575 has stalled.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and SEP at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 week high opens the path to 1.1650
This-week rally capped, consolidating under 1.1620.
EUR/USD rallied off Monday's 1.1507 low and is now grinding around the 1.1600 handle for a third day, with the 1.1620 area capping every push this week. Price has slipped back under EMA(20) into the latest bars while RSI(14) cycles around the midline, reflecting the pre-FOMC stall noted as EUR sits pinned below its 200-day EMA. The broader weekly structure remains constructive above 1.1555, but momentum has flattened into a tight range.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555, 1.1535
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 exposes the downside flagged below the week's structure
EUR/USD opened the week near 1.1530 and rallied through Monday's recovery to stall at 1.1620, where two attempts this week have been rejected — consistent with the 200-DMA cap flagged in the macro read. Since then price has gone sideways between 1.1575 and 1.1620, pinning the pair just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 50. Today's FOMC is the dominant driver, leaving structure compressed into the decision.
Support: 1.15749, 1.15555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision later today can materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 cap opens path toward 1.1650
Failure to hold the 1.1575 swing low exposes the 1.1555 pivot
EUR/USD ground higher off Monday's 1.1503 low into the 1.1620 area, where the 200-DMA cap has capped two attempts this week and the rally stalled near 1.16213. ZEW sentiment flipped positive yesterday but drew no sustained bid, and price is now coiling around 1.1610 as traders square up ahead of the FOMC. RSI(14) sits mid-range with momentum flattening through the consolidation.
Support: 1.1587, 1.15749, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1620
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and dot plot at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 200-dma cap opens the path to the week high and beyond
Failure to hold 1.15749 swing low confirms a lower-low and breaks the higher-low sequence
08:01 UTC
Sideways, capped under 1.1620 · RSI 52 · price 1.16073
Consolidation in post-gap range.
EURUSD opened the week near 1.1530, dipped to 1.1507 before a weekend gap up to 1.1605 set the post-deal range. Price has since coiled between 1.1575 and 1.1620, with the 1.1620 range top capping multiple attempts as the pair stalls into Warsh's first FOMC. RSI(14) sits mid-range and price hugs EMA(20), reflecting compressed two-way positioning.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dots at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1555 confirms a lower-low out of the range
EUR/USD recovered off Monday's 1.1503 low and has coiled in a tight band near 1.1610, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 but repeatedly capped at the 1.1620 200-day EMA — two attempts this week stalled there. Upbeat German/Eurozone ZEW sentiment gave only a fleeting bid that failed at that level. Price has flatlined into the NY session as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path to the 1.1650 firm ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1555 range floor reopens the downside toward 1.1503
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC ahead of the Fed
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat · RSI 55 · price 1.16102
Rally stalled, consolidating near range top.
EUR/USD recovered off Tuesday's 1.1575 dip and pushed back to the 200-day EMA near 1.1620, where two attempts this week have stalled. Price is now flatlining around 1.1610 through the Asia session, holding above EMA20 and EMA50 as positioning compresses ahead of the Fed. The soft US activity data and upbeat Eurozone ZEW gave the bid a backdrop, but the 1.1620 ceiling has capped each push.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1575 reopens the 1.1555 floor
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales at 12:30 could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Sideways, capped near range top · RSI 55 · price 1.16102
Range, compression into 1.1620 ceiling.
After the weekend gap higher EUR/USD rallied into 1.1620 and stalled, with two attempts at the week cap fading near the 200-day EMA overhead. Price is now compressing in a tight 1.1590–1.1620 band, RSI hovering mid-50s as the market sits on its hands ahead of the FOMC. Upbeat ZEW sentiment gave only a fleeting bid this week and the post-deal range remains intact.
Support: 1.1590, 1.15745, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh's first press conference at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close above 1.1620 opens the path toward the 1.1650 firm ceiling
Loss of 1.1590 exposes the 1.15745 swing low and the 1.1555 must-hold floor
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could break the compression
EUR/USD recovered off Tuesday's 1.1575 swing low and has ground back to the 1.1620 cap, where the 200-day EMA has stalled price twice this week. RSI(14) sits mid-50s and price is hugging EMA20, with the latest Asian-session bars near-flat on thin volume. The range between the 1.1555 floor and 1.1620 cap remains intact pending Warsh's first FOMC.
Support: 1.1605, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path to 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 floor confirms a lower-low and opens sub-1.150
FOMC decision/dots at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can break this range
06:01 UTC
Range, mild upward drift · RSI 56 · price 1.16118
Ranging below 1.1620 cap, higher lows since Tuesday.
EUR/USD gapped higher into Monday's open and tagged 1.1620 — the 200-day EMA cap flagged in the macro digest — then stalled and slipped back, with no follow-through. Since Tuesday's 1.1575 low the pair has carved higher lows back toward the cap, but the 1.1555-1.1620 grind still holds and RSI(14) is cycling around mid-50s. Repeated stalls at 1.1620 underline the ceiling capping this week's attempts.
Support: 1.1608, 1.15749, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC (Warsh's debut) at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC may move the pair pre-FOMC
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path to 1.1650
Loss of 1.1555 pivot floor opens 1.150
05:01 UTC
Range, grinding near top · RSI 55 · price 1.16106
Recovery off week lows, capped below 1.1620.
EUR/USD recovered from Monday's 1.1503 dip to grind near the week's top, holding above EMA20 with RSI cycling around the mid-50s. The 1.1620 cap has stalled two attempts this week, while demand has propped a series of higher lows above 1.1575. The pair is coiling in a 1.1555-1.1620 range pending Wednesday's Warsh-led FOMC.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1620 opens 1.1650
loss of 1.1555 pivot floor opens 1.150
FOMC (Warsh's first) and dot-plot is the dominant catalyst ahead
Eurozone final HICP today could nudge intraday range
EUR/USD lifted off the 1.1507 week low after the upbeat German/Eurozone ZEW prints, but the rally stalled hard near 1.1620 where three attempts this week have been rejected. Price has since coiled in a tight 1.1590–1.1614 band above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI flat around 52, showing no follow-through ahead of the FOMC. The 1.1620 cap and 1.1550 floor frame the range.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1550, 1.1507
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1620 invalidates the range top and opens 1.1650
Loss of 1.1550 confirms a lower-low and opens 1.150
Warsh's first FOMC later today could materially shift this read
Rally off midweek lows near 1.1502 has stalled below the 1.1620 wk high, with two attempts capped there before drifting into a tight consolidation above the 1.1600 psych pivot. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-range, reflecting EUR's brief poke over 1.1600 on the strong ZEW beat that failed to sustain into the Fed. Recent Asia-session bars are notably quiet, compressing range ahead of the decision.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1590, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1620 wk high opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of the 1.1600 psych pivot exposes 1.1590 swing low, then 1.1555 must-hold
FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) is the dominant catalyst for this read
EUR has ground higher since Monday's open, reclaiming 1.1600 and printing a week high at 1.16213 after the strong German/Eurozone ZEW beat. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.1600 pivot with RSI(14) cooling into the mid-50s as the 1.16213 high capped the latest push. Pullbacks have held the rising EMA20 through the NY session.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
H1 close above 1.16213 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.1600 pivot exposes the 1.1585 EMA20 and 1.1555 must-hold support
EUR/USD has ground higher since the week reopened near 1.1573, with pullbacks holding above EMA(20) and RSI(14) cycling in the 50s. The week high at 1.16213 has capped progress twice and price is consolidating just under the 1.1600 pivot region, with the German/Eurozone ZEW beat earlier this week providing little sustained lift. Price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) but momentum has flattened into the Fed.
Support: 1.1600, 1.15745, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.16213, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed is the dominant near-term driver and could materially shift this read
Sustained close above 1.16213 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of the 1.1600 pivot, then 1.15745, would break the week's higher-low sequence
EUR recovered off the 1.1575 swing low and is holding above EMA20 near the 1.1600 round number, but 1.1621 has capped the week's advance on three attempts. RSI(14) is mid-range around 56 with no fresh upside push, reflecting the digest's read of a euro pinned below 1.1600/1.1650 as the USD firms into the Fed. Price action since the weekly open has been choppy and two-way rather than directional.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed is the dominant near-term driver and could materially shift this read
H1 close above 1.1621 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Failure to hold 1.1600 exposes the 1.1575 swing low, then 1.1555
EURUSD gapped higher into Monday's open and has since ground up a channel of higher lows, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the upper-50s/low-60s. Resistance at 1.1620 has capped two attempts this week and the 1.1600 pivot is now acting as support beneath price. The euro shrugged off a strong German/Eurozone ZEW beat as the USD stays resilient ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1606, 1.1575
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1620 week high opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of the 1.1600 pivot exposes the 1.1575 swing low
US Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) and FOMC Wed are the dominant near-term drivers and could reset this read
EUR/USD gapped higher into this week's open near 1.1573 and has ground up to test the 1.1620 week high, where two pushes have been capped. Price is consolidating just under that ceiling in thin Asian-session trade, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the upper-50s. The euro reclaimed 1.1600 despite a constructive-USD backdrop, but the recovery leg is stalling ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Failure to hold 1.1600 pivot exposes the 1.1575 swing low
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC decision 18:00 UTC are the dominant catalysts and could reshape this read
EURUSD reopened higher through the weekend gap and rallied into 1.1620, a level that has capped two attempts this week and rejected price back toward 1.1575. The pair has since rebuilt off a higher low and is grinding in a tight Asia-session range just above the 1.1600 round number and EMA20/EMA50. RSI is cycling around mid-range as momentum cools ahead of the Fed.
Support: 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path to the 1.1650 cap
Loss of 1.1575 reopens the 1.1555 pivot from the EUR context
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Ranging between 1.1575 and 1.1620, holding above EMA20.
EUR is range-bound between 1.1575 and 1.1620 into the Fed, the ZEW-driven lift toward 1.1600 having faded as the dollar firmed. The 1.1620 area capped two attempts this week while pullbacks have held above the EMA20, leaving price pinned near the range top in quiet Asian-session trade. RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s with no momentum extreme.
Support: 1.1603, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC plus US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially reset this range
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward the 1.1650 cap
Loss of the 1.1555 pivot validates a downside break of the range
EUR/USD gapped higher at the week open and rallied off Monday's 1.1507 low, pushing above 1.1600 after German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment beat. Price holds above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI cycling near 60, but 1.1620 has capped three attempts and the tape has flattened into the Fed. Higher lows since the 1.1575 pullback keep the structure intact for now.
Support: 1.1603, 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed is the dominant USD driver and could reset this read
H1 close above 1.1620 opens the path to the 1.1650 ceiling
Loss of 1.1555 pivot turns risk back toward sub-1.1500
EUR/USD popped above 1.1600 after the strong German and Eurozone ZEW prints and has held the gain, but the 1.16210 area has now capped two pushes this week, leaving a double-top look on the range top. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI cycling in the 50s; the pair is effectively pinned with traders parked ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.
Support: 1.1575, 1.1555
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.16210 opens the path to the 1.16500 ceiling
Loss of 1.15750 turns risk toward the 1.15550 pivot
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant driver and could reset this read