EUR/USD reversed hard from Tuesday's 1.1620 highs to fresh two-month lows near 1.14509 after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold lit up the Dollar through the NY session. Price is now basing in a tight band around 1.1460 after the impulse, with the 1.14872 swing high and 1.1525 session high marking the lower-high sequence overhead. EMA20 and EMA50 sit well above price; pullbacks have not reclaimed them since the breakdown.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14872, 1.15279, 1.16028
What it said to watch
Break of 1.14509 exposes deeper downside toward the 1.14 range floor flagged by ING
H1 close back above 1.14872 would break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near range floor.
EUR/USD sold off hard from Tuesday's 1.1620 highs, accelerating through the FOMC hold as the hawkish Fed dot plot lifted the Dollar and broke the 1.1478 two-month low. Price is now basing between 1.1451 and 1.1487 well below both EMAs, with RSI(14) pressed into the low 30s after the slide. The 1.14/1.15 range floor flagged by ING is the structural pivot — buyers have so far defended 1.1451 twice into the NY close.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.15239, 1.1478
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14509 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.14780 prior low would ease the breakdown read
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating at the lows.
EUR/USD reversed from Tuesday's 1.1600+ and accelerated lower after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC, breaking the 1.1478 two-month floor and printing 1.14509. Price now sits well below EMA20/EMA50, consolidating in a tight 1.1450–1.1487 band with RSI(14) sub-40 but no longer in freefall. The prior floor at 1.1478 now caps recovery attempts.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14872, 1.1478
What it said to watch
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and the ECB speaker slate could shift this read
Failure to hold 1.1450 opens late-March levels
An H1 close back above 1.1478 eases the downside pressure
Reclaim of 1.14872 session high would break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating above week low.
EUR/USD opened the week near 1.1609 and trended steadily lower, with the decisive leg coming after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC that reasserted dollar dominance and drove price through the 1.1478 two-month low. Price now sits sub-1.1460, consolidating just above the 1.1451 week low with RSI(14) pressed into oversold territory. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) cap from above, and the 1.1478 broken low has flipped to nearby resistance.
Support: 1.1451, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1478
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1451 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.1478 would ease the downside pressure
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC plus ECB speakers could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, consolidating at week lows.
EUR/USD sold off hard through the NY session after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold, breaking the 1.1478 two-month floor and printing fresh week lows at 1.14509. Price has spent the last several hours consolidating in the low 1.145s, well below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 1.1487 swing high capping the lone bounce attempt. The week opened above 1.157, so this is a clean ~0.9% USD-led drop rather than chop.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1478, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14509 confirms continuation into the lower 1.14 handle, toward 1.1430
An hourly close back above the 1.1478 floor would ease the bearish read and reopen 1.1500
German PPI Fri 06:00 GMT and ECB speakers (Lane/Cipollone) could shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.1487 swing high needed to neutralise the lower-high sequence
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 36 · price 1.14568
Lower highs, lower lows since FOMC break.
EUR/USD has been in a clean downtrend all week: the pair opened near 1.1573, ran to 1.1621 by Tuesday, then the hawkish Fed hold (dot plot revised up, strong US retail sales) triggered the sharp NY-session breakdown that has carried price to fresh two-month lows at 1.1451. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressured near 36; the post-FOMC bounce toward 1.1525 faded quickly and has not been retested.
Support: 1.1451, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1488, 1.1525, 1.1596
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1451 confirms downtrend continuation into the lower 1.14 handle
Reclaim of 1.1525 post-fomc high needed to negate the breakdown
German PPI Fri 06:00 GMT plus ECB speakers (Lane/Cipollone) could shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.14556
EUR/USD has reversed from Tuesday's 1.1620 highs to fresh two-month lows, the dominant leg coming on the hawkish Fed hold mid-week which gapped the pair through 1.1590 in a single hour. Since the breakdown price has consolidated in a 1.1453–1.1487 band through the NY session, holding just above the 1.1450 swing low with RSI(14) pinned in the low 40s. Both EMAs sit well overhead, framing rebounds as pullbacks within the broader move lower.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1523, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.14509 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1400 psych floor
Reclaim of 1.14870 bounce high would open the 1.15230 prior high as next resistance
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and heavy ECB speaker slate could shift this read
EUR/USD broke sharply lower mid-window after the hawkish Fed hold, slicing from the 1.1620 area to sub-1.1460 in two impulsive sessions and printing fresh two-month lows. Price has consolidated under EMA20/EMA50 since, with rebounds stalling at 1.1487 and 1.1519. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s after the leg down, with no clear divergence yet on the latest low.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.15193
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.14870 challenges the lower-high sequence
1.14/1.15 floor — area to watch for dip-buyers defending
EUR was routed through 1.1500 after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC flipped the 2026 dot path to a hike, with the dominant impulse printing in the NY session and pressing fresh two-month lows. Price now sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) hugging the low-30s; the prior 1.1478 floor has flipped to resistance and is capping bounces. The 1.1453 session low is the immediate pivot, with the 1.14 round number beneath as the ING-cited summer floor.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1478, 1.1500, 1.1487
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1478 would ease the post-FOMC breakout pressure
Failure to hold 1.1453 confirms continuation toward the 1.14 round number
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB Lane/Cipollone speeches could shift this read
EUR was routed through 1.1500 to fresh two-month lows after the hawkish FOMC pivot flipped the 2026 dot path to a hike, with the sharp leg printing into the NY session yesterday. Price is pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and the late attempt to reclaim 1.1487 has faded back toward the 1.14541 week low. RSI(14) sits in the low-40s after basing, structure remains a clean sequence of lower highs.
Support: 1.14541, 1.1453
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.15259
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 1.1500 would challenge the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.14541 confirms continuation to fresh lows
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB Lane/Cipollone speeches could shift this read
EUR/USD slumped through the 1.1550 shelf after the hawkish FOMC hold, printing a fresh week low at 1.1453 before stalling. Price trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold to the low-40s as the decline cools. The 1.1487 bounce high capped the latest attempt, leaving the 1.1500 pivot overhead and 1.1453 as the active floor.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1453 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1500 pivot would neutralise the downside break
German PPI and ECB speakers Fri could shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower · RSI 35 · price 1.14612
Lower highs and lower lows after range break.
EUR/USD broke down hard out of the 1.16 shelf it had held since Monday, the impulsive leg arriving on the FOMC bar as the hawkish Warsh Fed flipped the 2026 dots; price has since shed roughly 150 pips to test the 1.145 area. Trade sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) parked in its lower third. Bounce attempts have been capped near 1.1487, keeping the week's structure of lower highs and lower lows intact.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1487 would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.1453 week low opens room toward 1.1400
German PPI and ECB speakers Fri could shift the range read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, attempting to stabilize · RSI 38 · price 1.14641
Sharp breakdown then basing near lows.
EUR/USD cratered ~130 pips through 1.1550 into 1.1454 as the hawkish Warsh FOMC routed the pair, leaving price pinned well below EMA20 and EMA50. Since the breakdown it has consolidated in a 1.1454–1.1487 band with RSI(14) recovering off oversold, a tentative stabilization at the ING-flagged 1.14/1.15 summer floor. Demand stepped in twice around 1.1454 but rallies have stalled under 1.1487.
Support: 1.14541, 1.14475
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1523
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1500 would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1454 confirms a lower low toward the 1.1475 march-low floor
German PPI and ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone) Fri could shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 40 · price 1.14641
Lower highs, lower lows after range break.
EUR/USD broke the 1.1550 floor into the NY session yesterday after the hawkish Warsh Fed flipped its 2026 dot path, carving a fresh week low at 1.1453. Price is consolidating in the 1.1460s, trading well below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) hovering near oversold after the impulsive slide. The 1.1487 session high has capped the bounce so far.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1453 confirms the lower-low extension
H1 close back above 1.1500 pivot would ease the downside read
German PPI and ECB speakers Fri could shift this read
EUR/USD broke down through the prior 1.1590-1.1620 range during yesterday's NY session as Warsh's hawkish FOMC routed the pair to a fresh week low at 1.14541. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and the shallow bounce into the 1.1487 area has been met with rejection. The 1.1500 pivot now caps the recovery while the lower-low sequence stays intact.
Support: 1.14541, 1.1460
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1523
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15000 pivot would soften the lower-high structure
Failure to hold 1.14541 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
US S&P Global PMIs and Fri ECB speakers / German PPI could shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum slowing after sharp leg · RSI 39 · price 1.14703
Lower highs and lower lows; basing below the drop.
The week's dominant move was the hawkish-Fed-driven plunge that broke 1.1550 and ran from ~1.1596 down to the 1.14541 swing low into the NY session. Price has since stabilised in a tight 1.1454–1.1487 band, capped at the 1.1487 day high and held well below EMA20/50. RSI(14) is recovering off oversold but stays sub-40, consistent with a downtrend trying to base rather than reverse.
Support: 1.14541, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.14872, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.1500 pivot would ease the downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.14541 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
German PPI and ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone) Fri could shift this read
EUR/USD broke sharply lower through 1.1500 during the NY session after the hawkish Warsh FOMC flipped the 2026 dot path, printing a week low at 1.1453 before a shallow bounce. Price sits well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering off oversold readings. The late-March low at 1.1480 now caps as resistance, while 1.1525 marks the prior support shelf.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1453 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1500 then 1.1525 would neutralise the post-FOMC breakdown
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and Lane ECB speeches could shift this read
EUR/USD was routed from the 1.1620 area down through 1.1500 after the hawkish Warsh FOMC reset rate differentials in the dollar's favour, with a second leg into the NY session driving fresh lows at 1.14541 since late March. Price trades well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40 after a shallow bounce off the low. The 1.1500 round number now caps as resistance having flipped from support.
Support: 1.14541, 1.14475
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1525, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14541 confirms continuation toward the 1.14475 march low
Reclaim of 1.15000 then 1.15250 would soften the downside read
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers (Lane) could shift this read
EUR/USD broke down hard from 1.1620 after Warsh's hawkish FOMC hold stripped the easing bias, slicing through the 1.1500 pivot and printing a week low at 1.14530. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI oversold; the late bounce to a 1.14813 session high has stalled near 1.1468. The 1.1500 pivot now caps the structure.
Support: 1.1453, 1.14593
Resistance: 1.14813, 1.1500, 1.15193
What it said to watch
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC is the only EUR catalyst and could shift this read
Failure to hold 1.14530 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
An hourly close back above 1.15000 pivot would neutralise the downside break
EUR/USD broke down hard through the 1.1500 pivot after Wednesday's hawkish Warsh FOMC and dot-plot flip, carving a fresh cycle low near 1.1453 into the NY session. Price trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressed into oversold around 31; the late move shows a stall just under 1.1470 rather than continuation. The 1.1475-1.1480 late-March low has flipped to capping the bounce.
Support: 1.1453, 1.1478
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.15279
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1453 confirms a lower low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of the 1.1500 pivot would neutralise the breakdown
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC is the only EUR catalyst that could shift this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 27 · price 1.1454
Lower highs and lower lows, fresh week low.
EUR/USD has been routed since the hawkish Fed hold, sliding from just below 1.1600 and slicing through the late-March 1.1480 low to a fresh week low at 1.1454. Price trades well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned in oversold, and the 1.1500 round level plus 1.1525 swing high now sit overhead. The break of 1.1480 flips that prior support into resistance.
Support: 1.1454
Resistance: 1.1480, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1480 march low would ease the downside read
Hourly close back above 1.1500 round level needed to stall the slide
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC could shift the EUR read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 27 · price 1.1454
Lower highs, lower lows since FOMC.
EUR/USD was slammed from below 1.1600 through 1.1500 after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold, bounced to 1.1525, then resumed lower today, breaking the late-March 1.1480 support into NY hours. Price now prints fresh lows at 1.1454, well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) oversold. The 1.1480 prior support has flipped to overhead resistance.
Support: 1.1454, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1482, 1.1500, 1.1513
What it said to watch
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC could shift this read
Reclaim of 1.1482 would ease the downside break
Hold below 1.1450 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
EUR/USD broke down hard through the week as the dollar stayed bid on the hawkish Fed dot-plot flip, with the dominant impulse coming in the NY session and price slicing from the 1.1600 area to a fresh low at 1.14593. Price now sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold, having traded straight through the late-March 1.1475-1.1480 pivot that previously held as support. The bounce attempts into 1.1510-1.1525 earlier failed to reclaim structure, leaving the downtrend intact into the latest session.
Support: 1.14593, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1477, 1.1480, 1.1510
What it said to watch
US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD-driven move
Reclaiming 1.14800 (late-mar low) would ease the breakdown read
An H1 close back above 1.15100 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.14593 opens the path toward the 1.1450 round number
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 27 · price 1.14617
Lower highs, fresh lows.
EUR/USD broke down hard through 1.1550 and into the late-March 1.1475 pivot during the NY session, driven by the hawkish Fed dot-plot flip keeping USD bid. Price sits at fresh lows near 1.1462 with RSI(14) pinned in oversold territory and well below EMA20/EMA50. The corrective bounce to 1.1525 earlier failed and rolled over, extending the post-FOMC slide.
Support: 1.14593, 1.14744, 1.1478
Resistance: 1.15193, 1.15279, 1.1550
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 1.1500 would ease the breakdown read
Reclaim of 1.15279 lower high needed to question the downtrend
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or stall the move
EUR/USD broke down from this week's 1.1585-1.1620 range after the hawkish FOMC reframing routed the pair toward the 1.1475 March low. A bounce to 1.1525 in yesterday's NY session faded, and successive lower highs into today have left price pressing the prior low at 1.14744 with RSI(14) deep in oversold. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit well overhead as the decline extends.
Support: 1.14744, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.15259, 1.15387, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14744 march low confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.15259 bounce high needed to neutralise the breakdown
US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating · RSI 29 · price 1.14754
Range break, lower lows into march low.
EUR/USD broke decisively below the week's 1.1590 floor and has slid through the NY session to retest the March low at 1.14744, with the hawkish Fed dot flip rebuilding USD longs the dominant driver. Price trades well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) oversold near 29 after two impulsive down legs. The 1.1525 recovery high capped Wednesday's bounce and now sits as overhead supply.
Support: 1.14744, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.15259, 1.15913
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14744 confirms a lower low and opens room toward 1.1450
Reclaim of 1.1525 would neutralise the breakdown read
ECB Lane/Cipollone speeches 12:00-12:15 UTC could shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 32 · price 1.14793
Lower highs and lower lows, breakdown below 1.1500.
EUR/USD broke down through the 1.1500 round number into the NY session, printing fresh lows at 1.14775 after the hawkish Fed flipped its 2026 dots and powered a broad dollar bid. A brief recovery into the 1.15260 consol top was rejected before price rolled back to the week low. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1526
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1500 would ease the breakdown read
Loss of 1.14775 confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 1.1450 psych area
ECB speakers and US Jobless Claims today could shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 34 · price 1.14793
Range break, retesting weekly low.
EUR/USD broke down through this week's range after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold, slicing from 1.1620 to a weekly low at 1.14775. A corrective bounce into the 1.1525 pivot stalled and price has since rolled back over, now retesting that low while holding below both EMAs with RSI(14) pressed toward oversold.
Support: 1.14775, 1.1470
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1528
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14775 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.1525 pivot needed to ease downside pressure
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 GMT could extend the move
The week's 1.1580-1.1620 range broke hard to the downside as the post-Fed hawkish repricing sliced through 1.1550 and ran to a 1.14775 week low. Price has since reclaimed 1.1500 and based, but the bounce stalled near 1.1528 with RSI(14) recovering off oversold to the low-40s. Sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the recovery corrective.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1528, 1.1550
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1528 reopens the 1.1550 fed-break level
Failure to hold 1.1500 round exposes the 1.14775 week low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Consolidating above 1.1500 after a NY-session breakdown.
The week opened near 1.1576 and climbed toward 1.1620 by midweek before the hawkish Warsh Fed routed EUR/USD through 1.1550 in a single NY-session candle yesterday to a 1.1477 week low. Price has since clawed back above 1.1500 and is consolidating 1.1490-1.1525, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold but still sub-50. Both EMA20 and EMA50 sit above price, framing the recovery as corrective within the broader break lower.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1525, 1.1535, 1.1550
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1525 then 1.1550 would repair the breakdown structure
Failure to hold 1.1500 reopens the 1.1477 week low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 1.1519
Range broken lower, 1.1500 swept then reclaimed.
The 1.1580-1.1620 range that held since Monday's open snapped after the hawkish FOMC, with price slicing through 1.1500 to a 1.14775 swing low before reclaiming the april low into the bounce to ~1.1519. RSI(14) is recovering off oversold but price sits well below the EMA20 near 1.1565, so the structure remains broken lower with the session high at 1.15279 the first cap. The 1.1500 psych level was defended on the rebound.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15279, 1.1565, 1.1590
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1565 ema20 needed to repair the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.1500 reopens the 1.14775 swing low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend the move
ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone, Elderson) today may shift the read
The week held a tight 1.1590-1.1620 band until the hawkish FOMC sliced EURUSD straight through to 1.1477, the dominant move of the window during the NY session. Price then clawed back above 1.1500 to ~1.152 as the US-Iran MoU lifted risk sentiment, but it sits well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) recovering toward 41 from oversold. The 1.1500 April low was defended into the close, capping the downside for now.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1477
Resistance: 1.1528, 1.1590, 1.1621
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1500 confirms continuation toward the 1.12 zone
Reclaim of 1.1590 prior range needed to negate the FOMC break
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could re-fire the USD move
ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone, Elderson) today may shift the read
EUR/USD broke down hard after the hawkish Warsh-led FOMC, slicing from near 1.1600 through 1.1500 to a 1.14775 spike low before recovering back above the April low. Price has since consolidated in a 1.1500–1.1526 band with RSI(14) lifting off oversold but still capped below 50, holding under EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.1500 handle was defended, but the broader structure is a fresh lower-low driven by USD repricing toward Fed hikes.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15259, 1.1573, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1500 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.12 path
Reclaim of 1.15259 then weekly open 1.1573 would neutralise the breakdown
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the USD move
Heavy ECB speaker slate today (Lane 12:15) is a near-term swing factor
EUR/USD held the 1.1560–1.1620 range through midweek before the hawkish Warsh-led Fed sliced price ~120 pips lower into the NY session, printing a 1.1475 low. Price has since clawed back above 1.1500 and is consolidating near 1.1515, but trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) after the impulse. The 1.1525 recovery high caps the bounce while the April low at 1.1500 is the immediate structural pivot.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15259, 1.1559, 1.16025
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1525 rec high opens the path back toward 1.1560
Failure to hold 1.1500 april low reopens the 1.1475 fomc low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind the USD move
Heavy ECB speaker slate today (Lane 12:15) — pipeline-inflation tone
EUR/USD spent the week pinned around the 1.16 prior range before a hawkish FOMC stripped the Fed's easing bias during the NY session, driving a vertical break to 1.14775. Price has since clawed back to 1.152 but remains well below EMA20 and EMA50, with the recovery so far reclaiming roughly a third of the drop. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold into the low 40s as the bounce holds the round-number 1.15000 floor.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.15400 breakdown level would extend the recovery toward the 1.16000 prior range
Loss of 1.15000 round number puts the 1.14775 swing low back in play, aligning with the April 1.1500 area
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC and ECB speakers (Lane 12:15 UTC) could reset the range
EUR/USD broke its week-long 1.158-1.162 consolidation to the downside after a hawkish FOMC stripped the Fed's easing bias, the FOMC bar slicing through 1.1500 to a 1.14775 swing low. Price has since recovered back above the 1.1500 psych level, cycling RSI off oversold into the mid-40s. The session high at 1.15259 caps the bounce, while the prior range floor near 1.1600 now sits as overhead resistance.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15259, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1600 would negate the range break
Failure to hold 1.1500 psych reopens the 1.14775 swing low
ECB speakers (Lane 12:15 UTC) and US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD spent most of the week consolidating around 1.1600 before a hawkish Warsh FOMC and a higher dot plot drove a sharp leg down through the 1.1590 range floor into the NY session, sweeping to 1.1477. Price has since clawed back to 1.1525 but sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the 1.1540 breakdown level now acting as overhead resistance. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold toward 44 as the bounce develops.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1590, 1.1621
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1540 needed to negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.1500 reopens the path to the 1.1477 swing low
US Initial Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD plunged through the 1.1590 floor into the NY session after a hawkish FOMC/Warsh debut and a hot US retail sales beat, tagging 1.1478 before reclaiming the 1.1500 April low. Price has since stabilised around 1.1520, holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) as RSI(14) lifts off oversold. The recovery is steady but capped under the 1.15240 area.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1524, 1.1590
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1500 reopens the 1.1478 session low and the drift toward 1.12
Reclaim of 1.1590 would neutralise the downside break
ECB speakers (Nagel, Lane) and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
EURUSD broke down hard through the week's 1.1580–1.1620 range into the hawkish-hold FOMC yesterday, printing a 1.14775 swing low before grinding back toward 1.1518. Price sits well below EMA20 and EMA50 after the move, with the 1.15000 round number holding on the bounce. The 1.1540 break level and the 1.1600 pivot now cap any recovery attempt.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1600, 1.16213
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.1540 break level would ease the downside read
Loss of 1.15000 round number reopens the 1.14775 swing low
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Range break below 1.1590, recovering off 1.1477 low.
EUR/USD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1590–1.1620 consolidation before the hawkish FOMC dot-plot shift sent it through the floor, collapsing to 1.14775 in two NY-session bars. Price has since clawed back to 1.1518, stalling right at the 38.2% retrace of that drop and holding well below EMA20 and EMA50. The April low at 1.1500 is now the immediate floor under the bounce.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1522, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1600 needed to repair the range-break lower
Loss of 1.1500 / 1.14775 confirms continuation toward 1.12
US Jobless Claims & Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend the USD-led move
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 40 · price 1.15165
Range floor at 1.1500 broken, partial reclaim.
EUR/USD spent most of the week pinned around 1.1600 before the hawkish FOMC hold and higher dots triggered a sharp leg down through the 1.1500 April low into NY hours yesterday, printing 1.14775. Price has since reclaimed 1.1500 and is grinding back toward the 1.1540 breakdown shelf, but trades below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) recovering from oversold near 40. The 1.1500 round number is the pivot the recovery is leaning on.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1596, 1.16213
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.15400 re-enters the prior 1.1600 range
Failure to hold 1.15000 reopens 1.14775 and the drift toward 1.12
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed 12:30 UTC could drive the USD leg
EURUSD held a tight 1.1580–1.1620 band through midweek before the hawkish FOMC hold and higher dots drove a sharp range break, slicing through 1.1500 to a 1.1477 week low. Price has since clawed back to 1.1516, stalling under the broken 1.1580 support shelf with RSI(14) lifting off oversold near 41. Both H1 EMAs sit overhead after the drop, keeping the broader structure heavy.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1580, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold of 1.1580 prior supp would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of the 1.1477 week low opens the path toward 1.12
US Jobless Claims/Philly Fed 12:30 UTC and ECB-speaker slate could reset this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend after breakdown, bouncing · RSI 40 · price 1.15172
Lower low, range broken to downside.
EUR/USD spent the week consolidating around the 1.16 pivot before a hawkish FOMC presser and higher dot plot drove a sharp NY-session breakdown, slicing through the 1.1500 April low to 1.14775. Price has since clawed back above 1.1500 but sits well below the EMA20/EMA50, with the pre-drop high near 1.15920 now capping. The recovery off the 1.14775 swing low has lifted RSI off oversold, though structure remains a clean lower low.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1592, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1500 reopens the 1.14775 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.16 pivot needed to negate the breakdown
US jobless claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend the move
02:01 UTC
Downtrend after FOMC break · RSI 40 · price 1.15172
Broke below week's consolidation, basing above April low.
EUR/USD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1580–1.1620 consolidation before a hawkish Warsh-led FOMC and a hot US retail print triggered a ~140-pip flush into the NY session, slicing to 1.1477. Price has since clawed back toward 1.1517 and is holding above the 1.1500 April low, with RSI(14) lifting off oversold. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit well overhead after the drop, leaving the prior range top as the level to reclaim.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1500 April low opens the path toward 1.12 drift
H1 close back above 1.1540 break level would ease the breakdown read
US Initial Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend USD strength
01:01 UTC
Downtrend after range break · RSI 34 · price 1.15106
Broke below week range, fresh lower low.
EUR/USD held a 1.1590–1.1620 range through midweek before a hawkish FOMC hold under Warsh and a strong US retail sales beat drove a sharp break lower, slicing through 1.1590 support and bottoming at 1.1477. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.1500 round number, sitting well below EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) cratered with the move and is only beginning to recover off oversold.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15387, 1.1590
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above 1.15387 would repair the broken-level zone
Failure to hold 1.1500 round number reopens the 1.14775 week low
US Initial Jobless Claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the breakdown
01:01 UTC
Sharp downtrend after range break · RSI 34 · price 1.15106
Broke below week's range, basing near lows.
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1590–1.1620 band for most of the week before a hawkish FOMC hold under Warsh and a strong US retail sales beat triggered a sharp NY-session break, slicing through 1.1590 and 1.1500 to spike a low at 1.14775. Price has since stabilised in the low 1.1500s, trading well below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) cycling out of oversold. The April-low region at 1.1500 — the context's stated line in the sand — is now the immediate pivot.
Support: 1.1500, 1.14775
Resistance: 1.15387, 1.1590
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.15387 would ease the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.15000 opens a retest of 1.14775
US jobless claims & Philly Fed 12:30 UTC could materially shift USD
EUR/USD spent most of the week boxed between 1.1580 and the 1.1620 week high, then collapsed through the 1.1540 range floor and the 1.1500 April low in NY hours after a hawkish FOMC dot-plot and a hot US retail sales print. Price has since stabilised just above 1.1500 but sits well below EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) depressed after the impulsive drop. The 1.1477 swing low marks the post-FOMC extreme.
Support: 1.1477, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1540, 1.1593, 1.1620
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1540 broken range would begin to reclaim the prior structure
Loss of 1.1477 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and extends the down leg
US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1590–1.1620 range for three sessions before collapsing into the NY session after the hawkish FOMC/Warsh debut and hot US retail sales rebuilt USD demand. Price swept below the pivotal 1.1500 April low to 1.1477 before recovering to settle at 1.1505, leaving the pair well under EMA20/EMA50. RSI(14) has dropped near 32, reflecting the velocity of the move rather than exhaustion.
Support: 1.1500, 1.1477
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1620
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 closes below 1.1500 confirm the breakdown and open the path lower
Reclaim of 1.1590 would repair the broken range base
US Initial Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind the post-FOMC move