EUR/USD has been in a clear downtrend all week, accelerating into a sharp NY-hours flush after the hawkish FOMC hold and dollar bid that drove the pair from above 1.1600 to a 1.1418 low. Price has since carved a series of higher lows and reclaimed EMA(20), with RSI(14) lifting off oversold as the bounce extends to 1.1477. The recovery still sits below EMA(50) and the digest frames it as corrective within the broader USD-strength story.
Support: 1.14617, 1.14175, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1523
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 1.1500 round number would challenge the lower-high structure
Loss of the higher-lows line and 1.1418 week low reopens fresh downside toward 1.1411
Tue EZ flash PMIs and US S&P Global PMIs are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Fresh week lows, near-term stabilisation off 1.1417.
EUR has trended lower all week, accelerating through a sharp drop into the NY session as a hawkish-Fed dollar pinned the pair to fresh two-month lows near 1.1417, with German PPI missing earlier adding to the soft-euro read. Price has since stabilised and is grinding higher off that low, reclaiming EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering back toward the midline. The 1.1487 session high caps the bounce while the broader structure stays below EMA(50).
Support: 1.1458, 1.14175
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1516
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14870 would extend the recovery toward 1.15160
Failure to hold 1.14580 reopens the 1.14175 week low
Lagarde (Mon) and Eurozone PMIs (Tue) are near-term risks to this read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 53 · price 1.14702
Fresh week low then base building.
EUR/USD slid from above 1.1600 at Monday's open to a fresh two-month low near 1.1417 as the hawkish FOMC dots and dollar breakout dominated the week. Price has based since the low and is now consolidating near 1.1470, holding back above EMA20 while RSI ticked up off oversold despite the lower low. EMA50 still caps overhead with prior-day highs at 1.1476 and 1.1487 the immediate ceiling.
Support: 1.14175
Resistance: 1.14758, 1.1487
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1487 prior high challenges the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce off the week low.
EUR/USD has slid from above 1.1600 at the week's open to fresh two-month lows near 1.1417, pressured by soft German PPI and broad dollar strength on hawkish-Fed repricing. Price has since based above the 1.1417 low and edged back to 1.14633, reclaiming EMA(20) while EMA(50) still caps overhead. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold to mid-range as the slide loses pace into thin Juneteenth-holiday trade.
Support: 1.14175, 1.14284
Resistance: 1.14758, 1.1487, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Close back below 1.14175 confirms continuation of the week's lower-lows
Reclaim of 1.14758 opens the path toward 1.15000
Lagarde and EZ flash PMIs early next week could reset this read
Fresh week low at 1.1417, corrective recovery in progress.
EUR/USD has unwound from above 1.1600 at Monday's open to a fresh two-month low near 1.1417 as the hawkish Fed dot plot lifted the dollar and soft German PPI added EUR drag. Price has since recovered into 1.1470, reclaiming EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling back up from oversold — a bullish divergence formed into the low. Resistance at 1.1474 is capping the bounce, with 1.1487 the next prior high.
Support: 1.1457, 1.1428, 1.1417
Resistance: 1.1474, 1.1487, 1.1520
What it said to watch
Tuesday HCOB flash PMIs (Services f/c 48.7) are the high-impact catalyst for the next session
H1 close above 1.1487 would extend the recovery toward the 1.1520 shelf
Failure to hold 1.1457 EMA20 and a break of 1.1417 confirms downtrend continuation
EUR/USD fell from above 1.1600 at Monday's open toward a 1.14175 low as the hawkish FOMC and a firmer dollar dominated the week. Price has since carved a base and reclaimed the H1 EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering back toward the midline. The 1.14743 day high capped the latest bounce and remains the immediate ceiling.
Support: 1.14175
Resistance: 1.14743
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14743 would break the recent lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.14175 confirms a fresh lower low
ECB's Lagarde Mon and HCOB flash PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
EUR has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.1616 open, accelerating on a sharp sell-off into the 1.14175 week low as a hawkish-Fed USD pushed the dollar to multi-month highs. A bounce has since reclaimed EMA20, with RSI recovering off oversold and printing a higher low against the lower price low. The 1.1487 swing high and the 38.2% retrace near 1.1495 cap the recovery for now.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1442
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1495
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1487 swing high opens the path toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1495
Failure to hold 1.14175 week low confirms a fresh lower low and resumes the downtrend
Lagarde (Mon) and US S&P Global PMIs (Tue) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD has bled from above 1.1610 at Monday's open to a two-month low near the 1.1417 week low, with the steepest leg printed through Wednesday's hawkish FOMC as the Dollar pushed to fresh highs. Price has since carved a shallow bounce off that floor and reclaimed EMA(20), though it remains capped well below EMA(50) and the 1.1487 swing high. RSI(14) has lifted back toward the mid-40s after stretching oversold during the drop.
Support: 1.1417, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1518
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1411 range floor confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1487 swing high needed to challenge the broken EMA(50) near 1.1518
Fed's Waller (Mon) and Tue HCOB/S&P PMIs could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 49 · price 1.14616
Lower highs and lows, basing near week low.
EURUSD has been in a clean downtrend all week, sliding from above 1.1600 to two-month lows near 1.1417 as the hawkish FOMC and stronger US data fuelled a Dollar recoupling. Demand stepped in at 1.1417 and price has clawed back toward 1.1462, but the 1.1487 swing high has so far capped the recovery. RSI(14) has lifted off oversold to mid-range while price holds just above a flattening EMA(20), with EMA(50) still well overhead.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1487
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1411 range floor confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
H1 close above 1.1487 swing high would challenge the descending lower-highs structure
Lagarde speeches and Tue HCOB flash PMIs could materially shift this read
EUR opened the week near 1.1620 and has bled steadily lower, with the dominant leg coming after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold and strong US retail sales dragged the pair through 1.1550 into the NY session. A two-month low printed at 1.14175 before a shallow bounce into the European session left price hugging 1.1462, still pinned beneath EMA20 and EMA50. RSI has lifted off oversold as the descent slows, but each rebound has stalled under the descending line of lower highs.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1466, 1.1487, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.14660 then 1.14870 would break the chain of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.14175 / 1.14110 opens fresh two-month lows
Lagarde (Mon) and flash Eurozone/US PMIs (Tue) are the week's catalysts and could reset this read
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off the lows · RSI 47 · price 1.14608
Lower highs and lower lows since the FOMC break.
EUR/USD has carried a clean downtrend all week, accelerating through the hawkish-Fed repricing that snapped the 1.1590 base and ran price to a fresh two-month low at 1.14175. The last NY session saw demand step in at that low with RSI(14) basing higher into the bounce, lifting price back through 1.1460 and the H1 EMA20. The 1.14655 session high and the 1.1500 pivot remain the structural caps overhead while 1.14175 marks the floor.
Support: 1.14175, 1.14284
Resistance: 1.14655, 1.15013, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.14175 confirms a fresh lower-low and reopens ING's 1.14/1.15 floor
Reclaim of 1.1500 would break the week's run of lower highs
Lagarde speeches Monday and EZ flash PMIs Tuesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, two-month low printed.
EUR/USD fell hard this week from above 1.1600 to a two-month low near 1.1418, the break below 1.1478 driven by hawkish-Fed repricing and broad USD strength to 13-month highs. Price has clawed back above the EMA20 into the NY session on a corrective bounce as the US-Iran deal eased the energy premium, but it sits well below the EMA50 around 1.1545 with RSI cycling mid-range. The 1.1487 prior-high and 1.1500 psych zone cap the rebound.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1545
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14175 confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.1500 psych would neutralise the week's bearish structure
US S&P Global PMIs Mon 13:45 UTC and Tue EZ HCOB PMIs are the next catalysts that could shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum still down · RSI 39 · price 1.14479
Lower highs and lower lows, below EMA20/50.
EUR/USD has trended steadily lower since Tuesday's 1.1620 high, accelerating after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC bar that knocked the pair through 1.1500 and on to a fresh two-month low at 1.14175. Price is consolidating just under the EMA20 near 1.1456 after a corrective bounce off that low, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-30 readings but still below 50. The 1.1500 pivot now caps from above while the 1.14/1.15 range floor is being tested.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1456, 1.1466, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.14175 confirms continuation lower toward 1.1400
Close back above 1.1500 pivot would neutralise the downside structure
HCOB euro-area PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 35 · price 1.14434
Lower highs, lower lows since Monday.
EUR/USD has been in a clean downtrend since Monday's 1.1620 high, with the move accelerating through the NY session after the hawkish Fed hold drove the Dollar to fresh highs and dragged the pair to a two-month low at 1.14175. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pressing oversold; the latest bars show a modest bounce off the low back to 1.1443. The break under the 1.1470 prior low remains the dominant structural event.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1470, 1.1500, 1.1528
What it said to watch
Sustained move below 1.14175 opens the 1.14/1.15 summer floor
Reclaim of 1.1500 pivot needed to challenge the downtrend structure
HCOB PMIs Mon Jun 23 07:30 UTC are the week's key EUR catalyst and could shift this read
EUR/USD has been one-directional lower all week, accelerating after Wednesday's hawkish Fed hold revived USD rate-differential bids and dragged the pair off the 1.1600 area. The break below the 1.1478 two-month low confirmed the lower-low structure, with price extending to a fresh 1.14175 low into early trade. RSI(14) is pinned in oversold territory and price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.14175, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1486, 1.1500
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.14 floor flagged as summer support; failure there extends the down leg
Reclaim of 1.1500 pivot would challenge the lower-high sequence
HCOB Flash PMIs Mon Jun 23 (07:30 UTC) are the week's key growth catalyst and could shift this read
EUR/USD has bled lower all week, giving back the 1.1620 region from Monday into fresh two-month lows at 1.14276 as the post-FOMC hawkish-Fed bid kept the dollar firm. The break below the 1.1478 area flagged as ING's summer floor accelerated the slide through the NY session, with price trading well below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) pressed near oversold. The 1.14660 prior shelf now caps as nearest resistance.
Support: 1.1427, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1466
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.1400 round number opens deeper downside
Reclaim of 1.14660 prior low would ease the downside pressure
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ECB speakers today could shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows · RSI 32 · price 1.14416
Lower highs and lower lows since FOMC.
EUR/USD has shed roughly 1.8 big figures since Monday's 1.1612 open, with the dominant leg coming on the post-FOMC USD surge that gapped price through 1.1535 and never recovered. Price is printing fresh two-month lows at 1.14416, holding well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) pinned in the low 30s. The bounce to 1.1487 has been the only meaningful relief and lower highs have capped every NY-session attempt since.
Support: 1.1400, 1.14415
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.15279, 1.16125
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1400 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1487 prior high would break the lower-highs structure
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers (Lane, Cipollone) could shift this read
EURUSD extended its post-FOMC slide to fresh two-month lows near 1.1440, shedding over 150 pips since the hawkish hold reframed the USD higher. Price trades well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) stuck in the mid-30s and lower-highs capping each bounce. The 1.14/1.15 floor area cited as this summer's range base is now the immediate focus after the breakdown through 1.1478.
Support: 1.14415, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.15193
What it said to watch
hourly close back above 1.1487 would break the descending lower-highs
loss of 1.1440 opens the path to the 1.1400 floor
Lane ECB speeches (07:10 & 14:30 UTC) could shift this read
EUR/USD has trended down all week from above 1.1620, accelerating after Tuesday's hawkish Fed hold and dropping in a single impulsive bar into the NY session. Price now sits on fresh two-month lows near 1.1442, holding well below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) pinned in oversold territory. The 1.14870 swing high has capped each bounce attempt since the breakdown.
Support: 1.1400, 1.14415
Resistance: 1.1487
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1400 psych floor opens further downside toward ING's summer range floor
Reclaim of 1.14870 swing high would challenge the lower-high structure
German PPI today 06:00 UTC could shift this read on a hot/soft surprise
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 41 · price 1.14543
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near 2-month low.
EUR/USD collapsed mid-week from the 1.1620 area to fresh two-month lows below 1.1451 as the dollar held its post-FOMC gains and the hawkish-Fed/soft-German divergence reasserted itself. Since the breakdown price has been pinned in a tight 1.1451–1.1487 band, with RSI(14) flat in the low 40s and price holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.1487 bounce high has capped recovery attempts while 1.1451 is being repeatedly tested.
Support: 1.1451, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1520
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1451 confirms a fresh lower low, opening the path toward the 1.1400 range floor
Reclaim of 1.1487 and 1.1500 psych would relieve the downside pressure
German PPI at 06:00 UTC is the next near-term catalyst for this pair
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 41 · price 1.14543
Lower highs and lows, basing near 2-month low.
EUR/USD reversed hard from Tuesday's 1.1620 area and accelerated lower through the NY session, breaking to fresh two-month lows below 1.1451 as the USD held post-FOMC gains. Price has since stalled into a tight 1.1451–1.1487 consolidation below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) pinned in the lower half. The dominant move of the week remains a one-way USD-led leg down.
Support: 1.14509, 1.14541, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487
What it said to watch
German PPI at 06:00 UTC and ECB Lane speeches could shift this read
Sustained break below 1.1451 opens the path toward the 1.1400 range floor
H1 close back above 1.1487 would ease downside pressure
EUR/USD broke down sharply during the NY session after the hawkish FOMC dot-plot, slicing from the 1.1590 region to fresh two-month lows near 1.14509. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the lower half; the bounce stalled at 1.14872 and the pair is now consolidating just above the week low. The slide is dollar-driven, with EUR/USD mirroring post-FOMC USD strength.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.14872, 1.15279
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.14509 confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the slide
Reclaim of 1.14872 needed to ease downside pressure
1.1478 two-month low remains the pivot for whether the decline accelerates
German PPI 06:00 UTC and Lane speeches could shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.14529
Lower highs, lower lows; basing near 2-month low.
EUR/USD slid hard through Wednesday's FOMC into the NY session, breaking from the 1.1600 shelf to fresh two-month lows near 1.14509 as the dollar held post-Fed gains — the move is USD-driven. Price has since consolidated in a tight 1.1450–1.1486 band, holding below both EMAs with RSI(14) basing in the low 40s after the impulsive leg lower. The 1.14860 swing high has capped the most recent bounce.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1486
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.14860 breaks the consolidation top and eases downside pressure
Failure to hold 1.14509 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
German PPI 06:00 UTC and Lane speeches could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.14627
Lower highs and lows, now ranging near 2-month low.
EURUSD broke hard lower during the NY session after the hawkish FOMC hold, slicing through the 1.1478 two-month low to print 1.14509 and posting a roughly 1.2% slide since Monday's 1.1600+ open. Price has since stalled into a tight 1.1450–1.1490 band with RSI(14) basing in the low-40s. Both EMAs sit well above price, confirming the prevailing downtrend.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1486, 1.1500, 1.1519
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.14509 confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence toward the 1.14 floor
Reclaim of 1.1500 would open the path back toward the 1.1519 pivot
German PPI (06:00 UTC) and ECB speakers could shift this read
EUR/USD reversed hard from Tuesday's 1.1621 high, with the dominant leg coming on the post-FOMC dollar bid that knocked price from 1.159 to fresh two-month lows beneath 1.1451. Price is now basing in a tight band around 1.1460, well below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) lifting off its lows as the slide stalls. The 1.1487 bounce high has capped the recovery, keeping the lower-high sequence intact.
Support: 1.1451, 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1528
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1451 confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 1.14 summer floor
Reclaim of 1.1500 would open a squeeze back toward the 1.1528 pivot
German PPI Fri 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, now basing above 1.1451.
EUR/USD extended its reversal from Tuesday's 1.1600+ to fresh two-month lows at 1.1451 on the post-FOMC dollar bid, the dominant move arriving in a sharp NY-session leg lower Wednesday. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.1451–1.1487 band well below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) basing in the 40s after dipping toward oversold. The 1.1525 pivot capped the last bounce attempt and remains the level that defines the recovery.
Support: 1.1451, 1.1430
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1525, 1.1512
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.1525 would unwind the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.1451 opens the path toward 1.1430
German PPI 06:00 UTC and ECB speakers (Lane) Friday could shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating at lows · RSI 39 · price 1.14611
Fresh two-month lows, basing after impulse down.
EUR/USD opened the week near 1.1598 and rolled over hard through the FOMC, the hawkish Fed hold driving a USD bid that snapped price down through 1.1500 and on to fresh two-month lows at 1.1451. Since the NY drop, price has been pinning along the 1.1457-1.1463 area, holding above the swing low with RSI(14) basing near 39 after oversold conditions. Both EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit well overhead, framing the prevailing downtrend.
Support: 1.14509, 1.1450
Resistance: 1.1487, 1.1500, 1.1525
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 1.1450 confirms continuation toward the 1.14/1.15 floor
Reclaim of 1.1500/1.1525 pivot would mark a short-squeeze and break the lower-highs sequence
German PPI (Fri 06:00 UTC) and ECB Lane speakers could shift this read